INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS | FES YEMEN Political Change with Pitfalls An Interim Report on the Yemeni Transition Process TIM O. PETSCHULAT September 2012 n Political change in Yemen is making slow but steady progress as the transfer-of­power agreement, known as the Gulf Initiative, is implemented. So far, this interna­tionally brokered two-year transition plan has been regarded as a success. It brought about the resignation of Ali Abdullah Saleh after thirty-three years as president, as well as the election of the transitional President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. A National Dialogue Conference is about to be formed, which is to produce a new constitution within the next nine months, thereby creating the conditions for parlia­mentary and presidential elections in spring 2014. n Nevertheless, a successful political transition towards a democratic and stable Yemen is not guaranteed. The process is being jeopardised by an elite power struggle that is raging behind the scenes. n The international community can and should exert pressure on those who are put­ting a successful transition process at risk. At the same time, it is necessary to support reform-oriented forces. If the Gulf Initiative fails, Yemen is threatened by complete state failure, civil war, and further deterioration of an already dramatic humanitarian situation.