THINK PIECE 20 SUMMARY • paper presents four alternative global futures for the monopoly on the legit­imate use of force with the aim of stimulating discussion and assisting policy planning. They are not predictions, but aim to allow policy makers to embrace uncertainty and plan for the future. • futures were built on two key uncertainties:(1) Will security provision in 2040 be more consolidated or more fragmented?(2) Will security provision in 2040 be more inclusive or more exclusive? • continuation of the cur­rent trend toward fragmenta­tion, privatization, outsourc­ing and commodification of security provision needs to be avoided, or at very least requires oversight, regulation and coordination. • cooperation and international solutions to transnational challenges are required at a time when tensions are once again on the rise. • effective and legitimate monopoly on the use of force needs to be established cau­tiously by assisting legitimate security provision and, once firmly established, it requires maintenance. 01 The Future of the Monopoly on the Legitimate Use of Force: Four alternative global futures by Jaïr van der Lijn INTRODUCTION Public discussions and policy making about peace and security are generally driven by current events. Although long-term thinking about structural solutions regarding the issues at stake is important, it is generally suppressed by the urgent challenges to peace and security that require immediate attention. As a result, policy gener­ally becomes a string of mostly short-term or ad hoc policies and approaches, which nevertheless may have serious long-term conse­quences for the structure of global governance regarding the legiti­mate use of force. The Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has set up the Global Reflection Group ›Monopoly on the use of force 2.0?‹(hereinafter ›Reflection Group‹) as an initiative to raise awareness of the current constitution of inter­national security. Its aim is to discuss the future of this system, which, at least in theory, consists of national monopolies on the legitimate use of force. The core of the ›state monopoly of force‹ – a concept first spelled out explicitly by sixteenth-century European philoso­phers – is that the state is the guarantor of both internal and external security. Although this concept has functioned in some states in prac­tice, in general its realization has been more the exception than the rule. Nevertheless, it is the ideal type of security governance aspired to throughout the world by different actors for a variety of reasons. Moreover, although the de facto international security environment appears to be moving even further away from this ideal type, the international legal and security order, as well as international relations theory, continues to operate on the assumption that de jure sovereign states are the main providers of security. The Reflection Group analyzes the current state of these monopolies on the legitimate use of force and discusses progressive policy options that safeguard both human security and a just international order. 1 The present paper hopes to provide further input into this process. 1 Group»Monopoly on the use of force 2.0?« Is there a need for new peace and s­ ecurity rules in the 21st century?‹, available at: https://www.fes.de/de/reflection-group-monopoly-on-the­use-of-force-20/(last accessed on 02.01.2017).