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  • The study analyses the economic, social and institutional situation of the Transnistrian region in 2026, at a time when the economic model based on access to energy on preferential terms, the administrative maintenance of the exchange rate and support for energy-intensive enterprises is losing its ability to generate revenue and ensure social stability. Drawing on statistical data from both banks of the Dniester, interviews and consultations with representatives of the business community, as well as the authors’ estimates, the study examines macroeconomic and exchange rate dynamics, demographic decline, developments in industry and agriculture, foreign trade, trade relations between the two banks, and the region’s financial sustainability. The analysis shows that economic integration between the two banks is already at an advanced stage. Enterprises in the region depend on customs procedures, certificates of origin and the legal framework administered by the Republic of Moldova to access external markets, whilst the European Union and the right bank of the Dniester have become their main export markets. The aim of public policy is therefore to formalise and consolidate existing economic integration, as well as to deepen convergence between the two banks in a gradual and sustainable manner. In this context, the study assesses reintegration scenarios and proposes a gradual approach to fiscal, customs, financial and banking, legal and social convergence, emphasising that the sequencing and pace of reforms, as well as the accompanying compensation mechanisms, are essential to the sustainability of the transition.
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