Edition 04/08 2008-10-27 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Focus South Africa SOUTH AFRICA OFFICE Publication for political and socio-economic issues in South Africa &/#53 3OUTHô!FRICA 4RANSITIONôOFôPOWERôINô3OUTHô!FRICA The first step to Jacob Zuma’s presidency in 2009 NATIONô FROMô THEô /FÙCEô OFô THEô 0RESIDENTô TOô THEô 3PEAKERô OFô"ALE FORCEDô TOô TAKEô THISô STEPô BYô THEô.ATIONALô%XECUTIVEô#OMMITTEEô OFô THEô!FRICANô  ôWHICHôHASôBEENôLEDôBYô*ACOBô:UMAôSINCEô$ECEMBERô $ISCUSSIONSô AREô CURRENTLYô UNDERWAYô REGARDINGô THEô DIVISIONô OFô THEô “Even when faced with difficulty, and confronted by unanticipated challenges, the ANC has remained unwavering in its commitment to advance the interests of all the people of South Africa.(…) We will not allow the stability of our democratic order to be compromised.” +GALEMAô-OTLANTHE

4RANSITIONôOFôPOWERôINô3OUTHô!FRICA In Retrospect In order to understand the resignation of President Mbeki, it is necessary to look back to 2005 when Mbeki due to corruption suspicions and allegations. The current Mbeki and the Zuma camps within the ANC, which also -DFRE Zuma was elected as a member of the provincial government of KwaZulu-Natal, three years later he was elected President Thabo Mbeki to serve as his Deputy in the well together until June 2005 when Zuma faced severe been sentenced to 15 years’ imprisonment for corruption. President Mbeki dismissed his deputy on 14 June, and declared the then Minister of Minerals and Energy, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka as the new deputy president of South Africa. This invited considerable criticism since the allegations that Zuma had accepted bribes in the country’s largest arms deal and had acted with insiderknowledge, had not been proven. The corresponding trial had only just begun at that point. Approximately 6 of the rape of an AIDS activist in Johannesburg – he was acquitted in court, however. He then also left his position as deputy president of the ANC. Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma belong to two different camps within the governing party. Mbeki stands for an enterprise-friendly, liberal economic policy which has come under sharp criticism in recent months. This is because on the one hand the economy grows by an against unemployment, inequality and poverty progresses sluggishly fourteen years after the end of apartheid. inequality of income distribution, South Africa belongs to the highest in the world, with one-third of South Africans still living in poverty. Millions of people still have no access to drinking water, sanitary facilities and electricity. Earlier this year the prices for electricity and basic food items sky-rocketed. This resulted in unrest Biography of Jacob Zuma 12. April 1942 Born in Inkandla, in the province of KwaZulu-Natal 1959 Entry into the ANC, three years later member of Umkhonto we Sizwe(Spear of the Nation). 1963 Arrest on charges of anti-government activities, sentenced to ten years‘imprisonment on Robben Island. 1977 Member of the executive committee of the ANC 1997 Elected as deputy-president of the ANC 1999 Elected as deputy president of South Africa June 2005 Zuma’s financial advisor Schabir Shaik convicted on charges of corruption, charges also brought against Jacob Zuma. President Mbeki dismisses Zuma from his office as deputy president. Zuma also leaves his position as ANC deputy president. October 2005 Suspected of and charged with the rape of an AIDS activist. April 2006 Charges are dismissed. May 2006 Zuma once again becomes deputy president of the African National Congress(ANC). September 2006 The first corruption trial against Zuma dismissed due to procedural errors. November 2007 Public prosecutor’s office initiates second charge against Zuma December 2007 Zuma elected as new president of the ANC. 12. September 2008 Judge Chris Nicholson dismisses the second charge of corruption against Zuma. He stresses the procedural errors and criticizes the executive interference. and acts of violence against African immigrants in the impoverished sectors of the large cities. In addition Thabo Mbeki is also regarded as authoritarian, distant and stubborn. His“quiet diplomacy” in neighbouring Zimbabwe, which for a long time, tolerated the brutal dictatorship of Mugabe, and his dismissal of the manipulated elections; the controversial Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang who placed the side-effects of anti-retroviral medication in the foreground and recommended nourishment with beetroot, pumpkin and garlic for the treatment of HIV instead, as well as Mbeki’s increasing concentration of power Jacob Zuma however, is regarded as the most important Zulu ANC politician and represents the left wing of the party and its associated trade unions. His strongest allies 2 &RIEDRICH%BERT

4RANSITIONôOFôPOWERôINô3OUTHô!FRICA Biography of Thabo Mbeki 18. June 1942 Born in Idutywa, Eastern Cape 1956 Entry into the African National Congress(ANC) 1961 Exile: Studies economics. 1971 Member of the executive committee of the African National Congress(ANC), first as secretary of information, and later as external spokesperson. 1990 Return from exile: Represents the ANC in negotiations with the white minority government of South Africa. 1994 After the first democratic elections: Deputy President in the Government of National Unity under Nelson Mandela. December 1997 Elected president of the ANC 1999 Elected president of the country 2004 Re-election as president December 2007 Mbeki loses presidency of the ANC to Jacob Zuma. September 2008 Withdrawal as State President include the country’s largest trade union representative, the Congress of South African Trade Unions(COSATU), the South African Communist Party(SACP) and the ANC Youth League(ANC-YL). Zuma enjoys immense popularity from the grass-roots levels of South African society and uses his increased media presence for the advancement of his popularity, despite both his criminal trials in the previous year and the countless controversial statements regarding AIDS, homosexuality and the equality of women. The experienced politician who, like Nelson Mandela, spent a part of his life in Robben Island Prison is seen as the Man of the People who speaks the language of the streets and who scores points by making charismatic appearances. His presence in the media during both his trials was used to portray an image of him as the victim of a plot or conspiracy which was meant to turn one part of the African National Congress centering on Thabo Mbeki against him to hinder his assumption of Zuma has always been regarded as the most promising  ERWK legal proceedings against Zuma had been dismissed due to procedural errors(corruption charge) and doubts regarding the reliability of the main witness(rape charge) Zuma was reinstated as deputy president of the ANC. On 18 December 2007 Zuma was elected president of the ANC following a decisive and grueling vote. The division between the party under Zuma and the government under Mbeki has since then increased and is the cause for Mbeki’s withdrawal as president of South Africa. The Climax of the Conflict The resignation of President Mbeki was facilitated by judgment delivered by a judge of the High Court, Chris Nicholson. Nicholson dismissed the corruption allegations against Jacob Zuma presented by the National Prosecuting Authority due to procedural errors. In addition Nicholson ruled that executive political pressure was  D second legal procedure against Zuma. Mbeki was placed under considerable pressure due to this. The Zuma-camp within the governing body of the ANC regarded the judgment as an indictment against Mbeki and his leadership. They considered the reproach particularly serious, that the President had used state facilities to discredit Jacob Zuma, the president of the party. In addition he, Mbeki had also threatened and damaged the justice system. Following the court judgment the members of the ANC executive felt convinced that a political“smear campaign” had taken place which was meant to prevent Jacob Zuma from becoming the next president of South Africa. This September the ANC executive requested his resignation. Mbeki complied with the request. The End of the Mbeki Era In a very emotional televised 20-minute farewell speech on 21 September, Mbeki acknowledged that he recognized the authority of the ANC executive, which had requested his withdrawal. In his speech Mbeki denied in“I would like to restate the position of Cabinet on the inferences made by the Honourable Judge Chris Nicholson that the President and Cabinet have interfered in the work the National Prosecuting Authority(NPA). Again I would like to state this categorically that we have never done this, and therefore never compromised the right of the National Prosecuting Authority to decide whom it wished to prosecute or not to prosecute.(…) This applies equally to the painful matter relating to the court proceedings against the 3 &RIEDRICH%BERT

4RANSITIONôOFôPOWERôINô3OUTHô!FRICA President of the ANC, Comrade Jacob Zuma.(…) More generally, I would like to assure the nation that our successive intended wilfully to violate the Constitution and the law.” Mbeki has instigated legal procedures in which he raises objection to the judgments passed by Chris Nicholson. The consequences Exactly one-third of Thabo Mbeki’s cabinet withdrew along with him, out of solidarity, although this also called for continuity. Beforehand, a wave of panic spread across South Africa in September after lists with the names of the various ministers who were suspected to resign had been circulated. The rumours regarding the withdrawal of Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, who enjoys a very high international reputation and who stands for stability, had particularly disconcerted the South African and international communities. The impression that the governing party, the ANC did not have the situation under control had spread and encouraged the ANC General Secretary Gwede Mantashe to recall several cabinet ministers to continue their work in order to ensure Shilowa, the premier of Gauteng, the most important province in the country incorporating the seat of government Pretoria and the economic metropolis Johannesburg, andecision made by the ANC National Executive Committee as unfair, and denied rumours that he had been forced to resign, or that he knew of a planned split in the ANC. The new and surprising developments took their toll on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and led to a weakening of the South African currency, the Rand(ZAR). This situation improved however, following Trevor Manuel’s announcement that he would serve in the new cabinet. The decision made by the governor of the central reserve bank, Tito Mboweni to remain in his position, also calmed the situation. The public reacted with mixed emotions to the resignation of Thabo Mbeki. A part of the population and the media felt that this was long overdue. Following the loss of the ANC presidency in December of last year, Mbeki had become a“lame duck” and important plans for reform had come to a halt. Other areas of the population criticize the manner in which Mbeki had been recalled and asked to resign, and regard it as an act of revenge on the part of Zuma supporters. Furthermore the tone between the two camps has recently changed dramatically. The general secretary of COSATU, Zwelinzima Vavi, and the chairman of the ANC-Youth League, Julius Malema allowed prepared to kill for Jacob Zuma.” Critics have stated that the ANC party had placed their personal party-political interests over the interests of the nation by recalling Mbeki – a reproach which carries much weight in a party-dominated South Africa. The Transition President: Kgalema Motlanthe The election of Thabo Mbeki’s successor required a special meeting of parliament on 25 September 2008. In this meeting, Kgalema Motlanthe, the former deputypresident of the ANC, was elected as the new President of South Africa. Motlanthe is appreciated and enjoys popularity publicly as well as within the governing party, due to his calm and dependable character. It is estimated that he will remain president until the elections in May privileged to have you as our President these last nine years. There is no value that we can place on the service you have rendered to your country, nor any tribute that can adequately capture your contribution to building this nation.” Motlanthe also expressed his belief in the need for political continuity. Alluding to the most important manifesto of the African national Congress, he intonated rican National Congress is a movement with a rich politihave had to be adapted, the policy orientation of the ANC has remained consistent for over 50 years. The vision espoused in the Freedom Charter remains at the core of the government.(…)In the spirit of building a united democratic, non-racial, non-sexist and prosperous South Africa, I look forward to a constructive relationship with all parties within this Assembly(…)..” Motlanthe stressed that his government will remain committed to the goal of reducing poverty and unemployment in South Africa by tangible advances in the provision of housing, electricity, water, sanitation and other basic services to millions of 4 &RIEDRICH%BERT

4RANSITIONôOFôPOWERôINô3OUTHô!FRICA our people.(…).Government remains on course to deliver on its commitments to the poor, who rely on us daily for important services like health, education, and social security..” In doing so he complied with all the demands made by followers of Jacob Zuma. The new president did not mention the conditions regarding the transition of power. It bears mention that in his new cabinet the Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, and Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana  7KHUH fore no major breaks are expected in the areas of economic, the position of Charles Nqakula as the new Defense Minister, Enver Surty as the new Justice Minister and Barbara Hogan as the new Health Minister whose predecessor Manto Tshabalala-Msimang was particularly controversial due cabinet ministers under Thabo Mbeki are carrying out their duties in the Motlanthe government. Results Thabo Mbeki’s withdrawal did not threaten the constitutional order in South Africa. The entire transition of power was regulated within constitutional law. In light of this, contrary to many other African states the concerns regarding the stability of democracy in South Africa are unfounded. Nonetheless the nature of Thabo Mbeki’s withdrawal and the unfavourable time, since elections are scheduled weakened president who has faced increased criticism in recent months, and who has come under great pressure due to xenophobic violence, the increased cost of living and has been dismissed. It is not to be assumed that the interim president Kgalema Motlanthe will be able to introduce and successfully implement large-scale reform projects. Rumours are circulating regarding the possible division of the ANC and establishment of a new party by followers of Mbeki, conservatives, economically sympathetic members of the ANC as well as opponents of Jacob Zuma. The current ANC leadership ensures that the party will continue to serve as a home for all South Africans and that a closed and united appearance of the ANC will be indispensable for victory in next year’s parliamentary elections. The former Minister of Defense, Mosiuoa Lekota gave his party Biography of Kgalema Motlanthe 1949 1967 1992 1997 December 2007 July 2008 September 2008 Born close to Bela Bela, in the province of Transvaal (today Limpopo) First arrest on the basis of his activities for the African National Congress(ANC). After the Soweto Uprisings, the 28-year old sentenced to ten years‘ imprisonment which he spent on Robben Island till 1987. General Secretary for the National Union of Mineworkers(NUM) and unionist in the Congress of South African Trade Unions(Cosatu). Elected ANC Secretary-General Elected acting party chairman of the ANC Declared Minister without Portfolio in the cabinet of President Mbeki Following the official withdrawal of Mbeki and eleven Ministers on 25 September 2008 elected new President of South Africa. an ultimatum. Should the ANC leadership not return to its original values, he would lead the establishment of a splinter-party which would run against the ANC next year. Lekota was encouraged to let his membership in the ANC rest, which comes close to a dismissal and increases the chances of the establishment of a new party. It is as yet unclear how the changes in the government and to now the ANC has indicated its will for change which conforms to its constitution, which provides the voting public with the belief in the security and stability of the  LQFUHDV ing level of dissatisfaction amongst the population with the party. It could be assumed, however that this will not demonstrate itself in increased votes for another party, but rather in an abstinence of voting. For the black population no real alternative exists to the governing party with an established history in the liberation movement and a two-thirds majority in parliament. to re-open the charges against Jacob Zuma for a third time. The chances of a conviction against Jacob Zuma remain largely unclear, however. This question will also determine whether Jacob Zuma will stand as a presidential candidate of the ANC next year, or if successful work by the transition president Kgalema Motlanthe will make Zuma’s position as favourite contentious. 5 &RIEDRICH%BERT

4RANSITIONôOFôPOWERôINô3OUTHô!FRICA Editorial The newsletter &OCUSô3OUTHô!FRICA appears in a series according to current political and economic events and is written and published by the FES Johannesburg political, social and economic transformation in South Africa, thereby wishing to consolidate democracy and social justice in the largest country in southern Africa. The newsletter aims at providing background reports and analysis of the current political, economic and social developments. The &OCUSô3OUTHô!FRICA can be obtained free of charge. Please do not hesitate to contact us. Our homepage !UTHORSôOFôTHISôNUMBER %DITOR Andreas Dorner Advertisement Oliver Tambo Luli Callinicos Beyond Engeli Mountains &RIEDRICH%BERTô3TIFTUNG Johannesburg, South Africa P.O.Box 412664, Craighall 2024 6 ISBN –86486-642-9 Cape Town- New Africa Books 2004, 672 p. Supported by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation- South &RIEDRICH%BERT