Institute for Sociological, Political and Juridical Research Issue N.3 December 2001 BAROMETER Political Parties Development in the Republic of Macedonia Dr. Aneta Jovevska Dr. Natasa Gaber-Damjanovska In cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation Regional Office Macedonia

Contents 1. Framework Agreement- Referendum or not? 2. Constitutional Amendments' Parliamentary Procedure 3. Public Discussion of the Draft Amendments 4. Final Adoption of the Constitutional Amendments 5. NATO Role in the Crisis(Missions) 6. The Issue of Amnesty 7. New Elections or New Government 8. Government N.7 9. Public Opinion Trends 2

Framework Agreement- Referendum or Not? In the light of the events that followed the acceptance of the process of constitutional changes, there have been a couple of separate initiatives in the frames of the Parliament, but out of the Parliament as well, to be initiated a referendum for this matter. A marginal but radical political leader(Mr. Todor Petrov) initiated the idea of having a referendum in Macedonia. The reason for that suggestion was that for essential matters like basic systemic changes, where the basic principles of the state are redefined, the opinion of the citizens of Macedonia has to be heard. Some parties directly or indirectly supported this idea. During the parliamentary session on the agenda was found the initiative of two parties- the Democratic Alternative and New Democracy about organizing a referendum for the suggested constitutional changes. New Democracy as a party represented in the Parliament gave the suggestion to have this matter on the parliamentary agenda, but on the other hand it was known that VMRODPMNE was in fact supporting this idea. At first these two parties had a bit different suggestions. New Democracy intended to initiate a referendum only about the preamble change. From their side, the Democratic Alternative wanted to initiate a referendum about the constitutional changes as a whole. Prevailed the second alternative, so discussion was lead about that initiative. Therefore, the other MPs who supported the referendum idea thought that it is too much of a responsibility for parliamentarians to decide on their own on such crucial matters. That is why it is necessary the voice of the people to be heard. Prime Minister Ljupco Georgievski during his visit in Bulgaria said that the referendum should not be seen in a negative context and that he is sure that citizens shall in fact support the Framework Agreement. Such an initiative stirred anew the relations among the main political players. SDSM parliamentarians and the MPs from the Albanian political block were against this idea, stating that a referendum conducted at this moment may result into war. They stated that a possible referendum would mean denying everything that was achieved so far for 3

overcoming the crisis, so the situation would be pushed back again. Mr. Arben Djaferi stated that this referendum is contraproductive, because it will provoke another opposed referendum, which will be initiated by the side of the Albanians, where the question will be"are you supporting the Framework Agreement". The position of the Albanian media in the country was that by organizing a referendum Macedonian parties are bringing the war back. Voting pro or contra the referendum was practically depending on the number of MPs who would or would not support this idea. Since the party VMRO-VMRO(has 6 MPs) stated that they will not support this idea, although they are against the Framework Agreement, VMRO-DPMNE realized that they will not achieve reaching the necessary absolute majority of 61 votes in order to have this suggestion passed. That is why this party obstructed the parliamentary session, by not having the majorpart of their MPs absent. This manner was heavily criticized by SDSM MPs. In fact, the actual voting pro or contra the referendum was supposed to follow after the parliamentary procedure related to the acceptance of the draft Constitutional amendments. SDSM leader Branko Crvenkovski estimated this initiative as non-serious and full of irresponsibility and threatened that his party will leave the coalition and go out of the government if this idea was adopted by the Parliament. His opinion was that the whole peace process shall be delayed, since the minimum time that needs to pass before the actual voting is two months, which procedure prolongs the obligations taken by all the parties who signed the Framework Agreement. Because of that, other things will be delayed, like the efforts for returning of the internally displaced persons from the Tetovo, Kumanovo and Skopje area, as well as the arms third portion collection by NATO after which ONA shall be dismissed. He also said that every party leader who put his signature on the Ohrid Agreement should guarantee for the behavior of its own party MPs. If this requirement is not met, than the leader who cannot achieve this kind of party support and discipline, should resign. Media speculations and some political circles estimated that in that moment there was a possibility of a new parliamentary majority that would have been composed by SDSM, DPA and PDP, which finally didn't happen. 4

Since the essence of the referendum idea was to be possibly accepted before the parliamentary procedure for the Constitutional amendments start at all, estimation is that in fact this was only one more game of the VMRO-DPMNE and other smaller parties which wanted to make a"party marketing" in order to maintain the vote support of the radical Macedonian voters. This was especially felt after the meeting of the VMRODPMNE MP group, when the party coordinator stated that"the party shall support the referendum idea, but the possible referendum shall have only an advisory role". According the Law, this position is not viable, due to the fact that a possible decision on a referendum has to have an obligatory character of the decision. Maybe this was the main reason why the referendum issue was never put to vote in the Parliament. 5

Constitutional Amendments Parliamentary Procedure Draft Constitutional amendments were discussed for quite some time in the Parliament, even spending more time than it was previously planned. Each draft amendment was voted separately. The amendment that provoked the most emotions and reaction(as expected) was the draft amendment number 4 related to the Constitutional preamble. Differently than the previous text, this time accent was put on the"civic" concept of the state("The citizens of the Republic of Macedonia, taking the responsibility for the present and the future of their fatherland....), instead of stating that the state belongs to the "Macedonian people living in complete equality with the Albanians, Turks, Vlachs, Roma and other", like it was stated in the"old" Constitution. Precisely this formulation created strong differences of opinion among VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM, but also among MPs coming from the same VMRO-DPMNE party. Smaller political parties were divided in opinion as well, for example this draft amendment was supported by the Liberal Party(with one exception) and by the Liberal Democratic Party. Against voted VMRO-VMRO, Democratic Alternative, New Democracy and the Roma MP. Both Albanian parties supported the draft amendment. Finally, it was passed with votes gained a bit over the limit necessary to be passed: 62"for", 40"against" and 2"sustained". Positively voted 10 VMRO-DPMNE MPs as well. This issue intimately stirred up emotions among many Macedonians, regardless of party affiliation, due to the feeling that the ethnic identity of the Macedonians is endangered or lost. Many feared that this might be the step of losing the country's integrity,- the only country that Macedonians have. On the other hand, SDSM parliamentarians declared that they are sticking to the promise given by signing the Ohrid Framework Agreement. Many discussed that if novelties are not to be adopted, the country shall be pulled back into a war conflict. The SDSM parliamentary coordinator stated that his party is not very happy about this amendment, regarding it as a compromise solution. It was said that they are ready to look at a new possible solution only if the other participants in the political dialogue want to discuss about it. 6

After this crucial voting, followed the discussion about the other draft amendments. Almost all of them passed rather smoothly with vote support of between 64 and 68 votes each. The only draft amendment that provoked confusion was the one regarding the status of all religious communities in the country, putting them on equal basis. The article that was supposed to be changed(the"old" Constitution) primary position was given only to the Macedonian Orthodox Church. While discussion was on, the President of the Parliament stated that he is not going to vote for this change. As a result of this opinion, the draft didn't get sufficient number of votes to be adopted(only one vote was missing, because 60 votes were cast for the draft). Parliamentary session was interrupted, a break was suggested as a savior solution, after which the next day voting was repeated. Only this time the draft amendment was passed. This provoked a reaction from the side of the Macedonian Orthodox Church, that contact the President of the Parliament and bitterly opposed this amendment. Other high ranked priests of the church even threatened with anathema to all the MPs who are going to vote for the change. According to the schedule agreed in Ohrid, next phase following the adoption of the draft amendments was the public discussion phase. Intention was to obtain the input from the Macedonian citizens and if possible to incorporate it in the draft amendments. All newspapers published them in order to allow citizens to get aquatinted on the content of the amendments suggested. This phase was due to last until October 10, when the amendments together with the public feedback were again on the parliamentary agenda. Only this time a qualified(2/3) majority(81 votes) was needed to finally adopt one by one all the amendments. 7

Public Discussion of the Draft Amendments Impression is that the Macedonians were the ones who were to be persuaded to accept the Constitutional changes much more than the Albanians, who were openly supporting the novelties suggested. Among the Macedonians two were the basic concerns which prevailed along all the public discussions: the preamble and the status of the Macedonian Orthodox Church. Other fears noted at the public discussions we the following: is the new Constitution re-designing the state on a purely ethnic basis; is the model of consensual democracy pushed forward in all state decision, this blocking the state institution functioning; does this mean federalization of the country; do novelties mean a two-house system decision making in the future? During October, all over the country and in all media was launched a campaign for support of the Framework Agreement. In this were included foreign donors(US AID), state agencies and many domestic NGOs. The Forum for Macedonia organized a round table(in which also participated the former Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov) where it was said that the present preamble amendment was unacceptable, since it depersonalizes the ethnic identity of the Macedonians. This was the reason that at the Forum were publicly presented some historic elements, which would ensure the historic continuation of the Macedonian people and its state. Given suggestion was as follows: "The Macedonian people and all the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia, taking the responsibility....". Other than this concrete suggestion, the Macedonians regardless of party affiliation were mainly upset by the new draft suggestion of the preamble, where the Macedonian nation was absent. Reasons may be generally described as historical fears of a Balkan nation that established its statehood rather recently in comparison with the other neighboring Balkan states, so psychologically Macedonians were not at all ready to accept such kind of a solution. Due to the big confrontations for the changes suggested(both Albanian parties were not attending parliament sessions, as a sign of protest to the signals that the preamble is not 8

acceptable by the Macedonian side), the international community was forced to mediate again, since the whole peace process was in question. Parliament was repeatedly blocked which meant that amendments might not be passed at all. President Trajkovski called upon the help of the international community to stop the"subversion" done by the Albanian parties in the Parliament. Firstly came Mr. Solana, Mr. Paten and Mr. Joanna and put pressure upon the four political players to continue in realization of the promised. Mrs. Doris Pack, President of the EU Parliament gave next signal that the international community would favor an eventual change of the preamble wording. Since Parliament continued to be blocked, later came again Mr. Robertson, Mr. Solana and Mr. Joanna, when the issue of amnesty rose again, but also for the first time was given an alternated preamble formulation. This was done by Mr. Solana, who faced a big opposition by the two Albanian parties, which were striving to have the two nations(Macedonian and Albanian) as"two constitutive nations" as opposed to the other minorities, which were supposed to be mentioned in the further text. Macedonian parties did not agree at all, since it would have implied formation of a binational state. Negative reactions were obtained by all the other minorities at the same time. Acceptance of the wording suggested by Solana at the beginning, after strenuous discussions was accepted by VMRO-DPMNE, SDSM and DPA, leaving the PDP party strongly opposed up to the last moment. It is interesting to be mentioned that in this formulation were added two more minorities: the Serbs and the Bosniacs(the second group was not present in Solana's suggestion at first). The President of the Parliament Mr. Stojan Andov, imposing decision-making formulas invented by himself(but also as a sort of a protection rule), stated that at least two thirds of the Albanian MPs should vote for accepting the Constitutional amendments, otherwise the outcome would have no validity. Such a high decision threshold was provoking big pressures upon PDP. Many foreign diplomats and representatives were meeting with the leadership of this party, in order to make them alternate their position. It was obvious that PDP was trying to make"party marketing" against DPA, but also they were trying to push forward some issues that were on their agenda, but were not accepted so far(like the issue of Tetovo University and introducing an amnesty law, instead of a mere Presidential 9

declaration). The EU envoy Mr. Lerois after negotiations lead with PDP stated that he takes personal responsibility to take care about two basic question important for the Albanians living in Macedonia: 1. Amnesty realization and 2. improvement of the education of the Albanian students. At the same time he denied that a promise was given for legalization of the Tetovo(Mala Recica) University, instead student's perspectives were seen in the frames of the Van Der Stohl and Skopje University.(Radio Free Europe, 18.11.01) After this meeting, PDP sent an official letter to the President of the Parliament where declared that they are ready to vote for all the constitutional amendments. This statement came exactly in the moment when the security situation in the Tetovo region was worsening, especially after the murder of three policemen. The final formulation of the Preamble was agreed as follows:"Citizens of the Republic of Macedonia, the Macedonian people, was well as the citizens who live in its borders, who are a part of the Albanian people, Turkish people, Vlach people, Serb people, Roma people, Bosniac people and the others, taking the responsibility for the present and the future of their fatherland.....". Concerning the finally agreed solution about the religious communities, the draft-amendment was as follows:"The Macedonian Orthodox Church, as well as the Islamic Religious Community in Macedonia, the Catholic Church, the Methodist Church, the Jewish Community and the other religious communities and religious groups are separate from the state and equal against the Law". 10

Final Adoption of the Constitutional Amendments After a long marathon procedure and endless discussions for determination of the draft amendments, finally the Assembly of the Republic of Macedonia adopted the last agreed versions of the 15 amendments. Each draft amendment was firstly voted one by one, and then all were officialized by a parliamentary decision voted by 94 MPs(out of the total 120). The final decision was reached by having the votes of almost all VMRO-DPMNE MPs, the total number of SDSM, PDP and DPA MPs, one LDP MP and one of the Union of the Roma. Against the constitutional changes voted 11 MPs from the parties: Democratic Alternative, New Democracy, Liberal Party and VMRO-VMRO. None was sustained. Two MPs belonging to the National Democratic Party of the Albanians: Kastriot Hadziredza and Fadil Bajrami, unhappy by the content of the constitutional reforms, showing dissatisfaction left the session before the actual voting. The atmosphere in the Parliament was gloomy. President Trajkovski at the end showed up on request of some of the MPs, who called him"traitor". Unofficially, foreign diplomats were very interested to get the votes lists, in order to see who voted how. The President of the Parliament Stojan Andov on a press conference after the session expressed hope that after these changes the security situation of the country will significantly improve. At the same time, the country is hoping for a quick donor's conference, in order to stabilize the already disastrous economic situation in the country. 11

NATO Role in the Crisis(Missions) The mission"Essential Harvest" ended on the exact day planned, September 26. In total, the"Harvest" collected 3.381 piece of weapon. NATO Secretary Mr.Robertson came for that event. He presented a suggestion for a new military mission, under the auspices of the UN, having a smaller number of soldiers present in the country. This mission was designed to be mainly lead by German troops, to have maximum 950 soldiers(as opposed to the previous demands of the Macedonian government to have no more than 300), and 6 to 9 months duration. Their task was to protect the group of 120 OSCE and EU observers in the country. During the press conference, Mr. Robertson presented three main messages to the Macedonian political factors. The first was referring to those who "nurture illusions" that can continue the military clashes. It was said that after September 11th, in the international community there is no more tolerance about terrorism and barbaric acts. That is why, after September 27th, all those who will not deliver the weapons and take off their uniforms, by NATO shall not be treated as rebels anymore. They shall be treated as criminals with whom the state will have the task to deal. The second message was regarding the amnesty of ONA. Introducing this act is seen as of crucial importance to allow the integration of ONA participants' back into society. That is why this act(under discussion was the legal form of it) should be introduced as soon as possible. The third message was about the new NATO mission in Macedonia, called the "Amber Fox". It should be said that in some political circles in Macedonia(especially among some Macedonian political parties) NATO presence was not wholeheartedly accepted. This trend was obvious in the Prime Minister's statement:"International community was not strong enough, it even at times was favorable to the terrorists, more than to the Macedonian legal institutions. This does not mean that I am against NATO, on the contrary, I want us to join NATO tomorrow, but I am against a NATO mission that 12

would serve as a force dividing the areas where there is conflict. This would mean application of the Cypriot model, which in fact would signify division of Macedonia" 1 . Unfortunately, even after the"disarmament" of ONA, and the first media civil appearance of Ali Ahmeti who declared that he is going back to civilian life, shooting, attacks of civilians, burning houses and churches, robberies, and other criminal activities continued. Publicly, ANA took responsibility of the major attacks that followed, especially regarding the recent killing of three policemen, one day before the actual party acceptance of the Constitutional amendments. ANA openly stated that does not agree with the principles accepted and amendments voted in the Parliament, insisting on much more radical demands than the suggested solutions. The country's security, especially around the areas of Kumanovo and Tetovo(including the city itself) is still pending. Probably, as Mr. Robertson has said part of the still armed Albanians belong to the criminal underground and that they should not be given the"honor" of calling them terrorists. Realistically, these people do many harms to citizens of all ethnic backgrounds in Tetovo. Still, the real danger is that next spring armed clashes may start again, and that once more this profile of people might be able to politically pull in the turmoil both ethnic groups. Here also crucial role should play the Macedonian Ministry of Interiors, which should show high level of cooperation with OSCE and the"Amber Fox" mission, in order to successfully accomplish the common plan of getting back into the"occupied" villages, which are at present out of the state control. It is important to be said that this Ministry was not always too cooperative and coordinated in the recent past, which gave pace to radicalization of the situation in some areas. On basis of a formal request submitted by President Trajkovski, Mr. Robertson publicly announced that the"Amber Fox" mission should continue its mandate for three more months, up to March 26, 2002. The Secretary General said that by this NATO decision, it is confirmed the obligation of maintaining stable the stabilization process in Macedonia. 1 Statement given for the Bulgarian newspaper"24 Hours", also published in"Utrinski Vesnik" Wednesday, September 19, 2001 13

The Issue of Amnesty Amnesty of the ONA fighters was taken as a personal obligation to be carried on, as a show of good will by the President of the Republic, which should be then adopted by the Government. The President, comprising only those ONA fighters who voluntarily have given their weapons by September 26 gave this as a public statement. At the same time these fighters should not have committed crimes punishable by the Hague Tribunal. In addition it was submitted a list of 30 crimes that occurred during the armed conflict, for which the amnesty was not valid: torture of the villagers from Matejce, kidnapping, rape and molesting of the four road workers on the highway Tetovo-Skopje, massacres of the persons belonging to the defense forces of the country(at Vejce, Karpalak and Ljuboten), destruction of the cultural historic and religious monuments, as well as blowing up the Brioni motel with the two civilians inside. This President's initiative caused big national reaction both in party but also legal circles. Details about how the amnesty is going to be operationalized are still not taken care of, and also there are some practical legal obstacles in it, for which a proper legal form should be found. It is more that clear that this amnesty has more to do with politics than with the rule of law. Some legal experts have said that the President's initiative is a bit hasty, since in the frame of his rights and duties amnesty as such is not present, but instead he has a legal right to pardon convicted persons in the form of a legal remedy. In fact, amnesty is in the exclusive Assembly's jurisdiction(as seen in Article 68). There are many dilemmas that go much more into details, like: which criminal acts are going to be comprised and to what profile of persons who acted this is going to be applied. And finally, it is said that the act of amnesty in principle is in contradiction with the worldwide efforts against terrorism. After the official amnesty statement of the President, followed the official statement of the Government of the Republic of Macedonia dated October 9, where the President's suggestion was fully accepted in the form that it was submitted. Practically, ONA 14

members who have not committed crimes, starting from this date, may consider themselves as amnestied. The two Albanian parties did not agree the issue of amnesty to be solved only by a statement, but they insisted the Parliament to introduce an amnesty law as a guarantee that the former ONA fighters shall not be persecuted. Due to the fact that the government didn't accept this proposal, PDP ministers left the government session. They thought that this issue could only be resolved by introducing of a law. DPA ministers stayed and supported the President's suggestion, viewing it as a first step in the political process in accordance with the Framework Agreement. Amnesty, together with the question of the Tetovo University remained the two PDP focal points of political bargaining up until the last moment of the final adoption of the Constitutional amendments. Generally, DPA was more constructive. By pressure of the international community, the President has the obligation to give amnesty to all ONA fighters(only with the exception of those who fall under the jurisdiction of the Hague Tribunal), in order to serve as a condition to fulfilled, for entering of the authorities into the occupied villages. He accomplished that for the first time for 11 prisoners on December 5. It is important to be stressed that amnesty shall be valid only and solely for those persons who gave up the weapons by September 26. All other events that happened after that date fall under the normal jurisdiction of the country. During the first days of November, President Trajkovski sent a letter to the Hague Tribunal Public Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte, asking her to take action due to the uncertain destiny of the kidnapped 12 people from the Tetovo region. These people were civilians who were kidnapped after the peace agreement among NATO and Macedonian authorities and ONA was signed. There was a basic suspicion that crimes against humanity were done and that in the area of Neprosteno village there is a mass grave. During the visit of the Public prosecutor, it was stated that two processes shall be initiated for crimes against humanity: in one of them is accused ONA(Vejce massacre) and in the other the Macedonian defense forces(Ljuboten village). Exhumation of the mass grave in Neprosteno was considered as a separate matter. It was realized by domestic forensic 15

experts, in collaboration with the"Amber Fox" mission and OSCE. After a couple of day's research, human body parts were found, but the official statement of the findings shall come much later. 16

New Elections or New Government It was obvious that during the crisis throughout this year, the wide coalition was hardly functioning. This was especially felt by the main two Macedonian parties, who divided among themselves the two ministries responsible for the security of the country, which in reality were acting without any common coordination, especially at the beginning of the crisis. Same miscommunication was evident among the Ministers in the Government, as well as the relation between the Coordinative body for Crisis Management and the Government. These defaults were especially frustrating for the SDSM party and ministers, who got into the government in a very risky moment in the country, trying to contribute in the peace process. They were very limited in their efforts and actions, due to the bad cooperation existing. Feeling that their popularity as a party is falling after they got into government, SDSM was gradually announcing their departure back into opposition waters. This move was heavily criticized by VMRO-DPMNE, as the Prime Minister called them"deserters". Due to the fact that in accordance with the Framework Agreement it was agreed to be organized early elections on January 27 2002, the President of the Parliament Mr. Andov called a Parliamentary session having this matter on the agenda. The Parliament was supposed to dismiss itself, in order to fulfill the condition for early elections(this provision is a legally binding article in the Constitution). The four political leaders who created the wide party coalition also commonly accepted this date. Mr. Andov's initiative provoked various reactions of the parliamentary groups. For the domestic press, Mr. Andov stated that MPs and political parties should estimate whether the Parliament should be dismissed, although he openly said that he is against it, since he sees no reason why the mandate of this Parliament should seize. On the contrary, he thinks that there are many reasons to maintain this Parliament composition, due to the obligations that it took to fulfill. 17

Prime Minister Ljupco Georgievski stated that none is avoiding early elections, but thinks that it is not serious for someone to leave the government now, because the security situation in the country is not stable. This party position was repeated by the party parliamentary Coordinator Cedo Kralevski, who thought that situation should be firstly calmed down, authorities should control the whole territory, to organize the census and to introduce a new election Law. Only after these conditions, he thinks that elections can be organized, where the real voter's will shall be expressed. Identical was the opinion of the DPA(vice-president Ilijaz Halimi) and PDP(party coordinator Naser Ziberi) representatives, who think that firstly should be fulfilled the conditions enumerated in the Annex B of the Framework Agreement, and only after that to organize elections. This opinion was shared by the party New Democracy. VMRO-VMRO was in the same line of thinking again, but for another reason: they thought that Mr. Ljupco Georgievski is not ready nor capable in organizing fair and democratic elections. Support of the early elections initiative was expressed only by SDSM, while all other parties thought that conditions for successful election organizing are not fulfilled on the date required. SDSM amended the decision for early elections with a new suggestion. Namely, the date for dismissal of the Parliament to be on February 27, 2002, which will allow to have elections in April. Because of this, VMRO-DPMNE in order to have SDSM remain in Government accepted the determination of the exact date of early elections(April). This request was not met by SDSM, since the party decided to get out of the Government anyway. Parliamentary discussion on the initiative for early election ended unsuccessfully, because Mr. Andov provoked by the SDSM critics that he is bluffing, withdrew the early election suggestion. 18

Government N.7 On November 21, 2001 on a joint press conference, SDSM and LDP publicly announced that they are going back into opposition. Mr. Crvenkovski stated that"they by their further participation of this unnatural coalition do not wish to be further on an alibi for continuation of the disastrous economic policy, state criminal, corruption, selling out of the national wealth, war profiteering, personal benefits and promotion of the system of party feudalism in Macedonia". He also stressed that they participated in the Government because danger of a complete interethnic war was to be avoided and for maintaining the territorial integrity of the country. Since a political solution for the crisis was found, as well as achieving international community support, SDSM saw no more reasons for staying in this government of political unity. Reacting on this press-conference, the Prime Minister the next day immediately dismissed all SDSM and LDP Ministers and other persons on position, without knowing that the same persons in question submitted their resignations a day before that. A couple of days later, after strenuous negotiations with all the parties, the seventh government reshuffle had the following party composition: VMRO-DPMNE, PDP, DPA, VMROVMRO, LP, and New Democracy. New ministers who took the vacancies are: Slobodan Chashule(New Democracy) as Minister of Exteriors, Dr. Gjorgi Orovcanec(New Democracy) as Minister of Health and Vlado Popovski(Liberal Party) as Minister of Defense. An old-new Government vice-president was established again from VMRODPMNE, and that was Mrs. Dosta Dimovska. At a particular moment, PDP was hesitating whether they should also leave the coalition or not. There was even a joint meeting of all Albanian political forces in Macedonia discussing this matter, but at the end prevailed the decision to stay. 19

Public Opinion Trends A poll has been conducted by the Center for Ethnic Relations at the Institute for Sociological, Political and Juridical Research at the beginning of October 2001. Here are some of the results obtained: What is the biggest problem that Macedonia is facing today? • armed conflicts, terrorism, inter-ethnic conflicts 52% • crime and corruption 3% • unemployment 10% • economic problems 14% • "the Albanian" question" 3% • bad government 4% • other 7% • don't know 1% • disunity of the nation 1% • Framework Agreement 5% Do you think that by adopting the Constitutional changes as provided in the Framework Agreement, peace and stability will return to Macedonia? • yes 26% • temporary 26% • no 37% • don't know 11% Ethnic background is definitely a relevant element when frequency of answers is discussed. Macedonians show the largest pessimism, by preferring the negative answer in 46% of the cases. In this group the positive answers are present only in 30% of the polled. On the contrary, Albanians are in their major part optimists, by having 71% of positive answers. Party affiliation is also a visibly strong determinant regarding the 20

answer distribution. SDSM voters are more restrained in their answers, preferring more often than the average the modality"temporary" 34%. On the other hand VMRODPMNE voters in their majorpart are focused in the negative answer(52%). As expected, all Albanian parties are strongly in favor of the positive reply(PDP-778%, DPA-74% and NDP-74%). Who do you think is most responsible for the crisis in Macedonia? • Macedonian politicians 41% • Albanian politicians 20% • present legislation 7% • international community 19% • Kosovo 6% • media 3% • other 4% Mark the role of each political subject for the crisis in Macedonia(1 is most responsible, guilty, and 5 is the least responsible) Marks VMRO- SDSM DPA PDP Pres. of Parliament DPMNE the Repub. of RM 1 63% 32% 72% 70% 45% 43% 2 13% 26% 7% 8% 18% 19% 3 13% 22% 4% 5% 21% 24% 4 5% 9% 5% 6% 9% 8% 5 6% 11% 12% 11% 7% 6% As seen according to the answers, the largest blame for the crisis is directed towards the parties DPA, PDP and VMRO-DPMNE, although the level of blame is not totally absent in the marks of the other players as well. Naturally, if cross-tabulations are seen, some of the answers may look differently. 21