12. 2013 EDITORIAL Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, dear friends of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. With 2013 slowly coming to an end, the question left hanging over Palestinian politics is whether the resumption of the peace negotiations between the Palestinian Authority(PA) and Israel, and which have commenced last July 2013, will produce any worthwhile results. Other important news was the July military coup in Egypt, which robbed the de facto Hamas government of its biggest regional ally. Our partner Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre(JMCC) carried out a public opinion poll in the occupied Palestinian Territory (oPT) to discover how recent events have impacted on the Palestinian population at large. For a large section of the Palestinian population, it was clearly a mistake to resume peace negotiations with Israel, 67.7% of whom believe nothing will come at the end of the 9-month negotiation period. Thus while Israeli settlement activity has only gained momentum since the talks began, most Palestinians are questioning the faith that the PA has placed in the peace negotiations. This could explain the drop in Fatah’s popularity over the last year, from 36.8% to 32%, suggesting the party is being punished. Similarly, this lack of faith in the negotiations is changing public perceptions: only 32.3% of those interviewed consider peaceful negotiations the best method to achieve the goals of the Palestinian people, down from 36% in March 2013(before the talks had started). Events in Gaza have also left their mark. Since the military took control in Egypt, the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza has been at a practical standstill, cutting Gaza’s most important economical umbilical cord. Though this has further added pressure on the already fragile Hamas leadership in Gaza, 47.5% of those interviewed felt that Egypt’s animosity towards Gaza would not encourage Hamas to take a more reconciliatory position towards their political rivals Fatah. It is also interesting that support for Hamas has only dropped slightly to 16%. Therefore, it is too early to know if the Egyptian blockade will have long lasting effects on Hamas’ position. Finally, it seems the Palestinian public is becoming increasingly disillusioned. Not only has support for both the main political parties fallen, but an increasingly large segment the population(39.1%) does not trust any of the political fractions. To make matters worse, 49.3% of respondents do not expect Fatah and Hamas to put aside their differences and form a national unity government. Below you will find the complete study. We hope you find it interesting reading! With kind regards from Jerusalem, Your FES East-Jerusalem team Design: ery foto Seite 1

Jerusalem Office Tel.:+972-2-532 83 98 Fax:+972-2-581 96 65 Email: info@fespal.org Web: www.fespal.org PO Box: 25047 – Jerusalem 2976557 Fax: 02- 2976555 Tel. 02Email: poll@jmcc.org Website: www.jmcc.org Public Opinion Poll Number 80 – November – 2013 Conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center Half of the respondents: resumption of the negotiations was a wrong decision Majority: the negotiations will not succeed in reaching an agreement President Abbas is still the personality most trusted among the people Continued pessimism over reconciliation and the formation of a national unity government Majority sympathizes with the Syrian opposition against the Assad regime A public opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center showed that half of the Palestinian people, 50.5% consider the Palestinian Authority’s decision to resume negotiations with Israel was a wrong decision compared with 33.8% that considered it a right decision. This seems to be in harmony with the majority, 68.7% which said that the negotiations would not succeed in reaching an agreement with Israel, compared with 20.8% who said they would succeed. In regards to the best methods of achieving the goals of the Palestinian people, the respondents were split, with approximately one-­‐third(32.3%) who said that peaceful negotiations were the best method, another one-­‐third approximately(29.3%) who said that armed resistance was the best method, and 27.1% who said non-­‐violent, peaceful resistance was the best way. The Government When asked about the name of the current Prime Minister, 52.5% of respondents answered Dr. Rami al-­‐Hamdallah compared with 14.2% who answered Isma’il Haniyeh and 28.3% who said they did not know the name of the current Prime Minister. What is noteworthy is that 36.0% of respondents in Gaza said the current Prime Minister was Dr. Rami al-­‐Hamdallah as opposed to 37.8% who said his name was Isma’il Haniyeh, As for the performance of the new Prime Minister Dr. Rami al-­‐Hamdallah, the majority (35.6%) said they considered his performance to be average in comparison with 24.4% who said it was good, and 12.6% who said it was bad. Page 1

The reconciliation The majority of the Palestinian public(30.5%) continued to hold Hamas responsible for the persisting division, compared with 17.8% who held Fatah responsible; 18.5% held both Fatah and Hamas responsible. These predictions were reflected on the level of pessimism regarding the prospects for forming a national unity government and holding general elections. 49.3% expected that no national unity government would be formed, while the majority(57.2%) expected that presidential and legislative elections would not be held within a year from now. Regarding the impact of the latest developments in Egypt on the chances for reconciliation, the respondents were split between 45.7% saying that events taking place in Egypt were not encouraging in terms of any change in Hamas’ positions towards the reconciliation; meanwhile 42.0% considered event in Egypt to encourage this change. The future and performance of the PNA In regards to the future of the PNA, the majority(65.1%) said there was a need to perpetuate and maintain it while 24.3% called for its dissolution. In general, the majority (61.6%) believe the PNA’s performance is good compared with 33.6% who said it was bad. Regarding the performance of President Mahmoud Abbas, the majority(53.7%) said they were satisfied with it, compared with 39.2% who said they were dissatisfied. Furthermore, President Abbas maintained the most trust among the people – when asked about the Palestinian personality they trust the most – 20.6% said Abbas, followed by Ismail Haniyeh (11.8%) and then Marwan Barghouti(5.9%). Still, the majority(39.6%) said they did not trust anyone. Regarding the balances of power between political parties and main personalities, the popularity of Fatah retreated from 36.8% last November to 32.0% this November. Contrarily, the poll showed that Hamas’ popularity stood steady at 16.0%. Regarding security cooperation between the PNA and Israel, 49.3% said it should be stopped while 36.3% said it should continue. The majority(53.0%) said it did not benefit the Palestinian people, while 36.4% considered it beneficial. The Arab Spring As for the events taking place in the Arab world, the poll showed the Palestinian public’s pessimism towards them. The majority,(42.6%) said that these events would change the Arab world for the worse, while 28.0% said they would change it for the better. As for the impact of these events on the Palestinian cause, half of the respondents(50.2%) said they would be at the expense of the Palestinian cause, while 16.6% said they would be to its benefit. As for the events taking place in Syria, the majority(44.4%) said they were more sympathetic with the opposition, which seeks to bring down the Assad regime, compared to 14.4% who said they were more sympathetic to the Assad regime; 36.8% said they were unsympathetic towards either side of the conflict. Page 2

Methodology: A random sample of 1200 people over the age of 18 was interviewed face-­‐to-­‐face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip between 13 and 17 of November 2013. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 130 sampling points chosen randomly according to population. In the West Bank 750 people were surveyed from the following areas: Hebron:Hebron, Surif, Sa’ir, Yatta, Kharas, Beit‘Awwa, Dura, Imreish, Hadb al-­‐Fawwar, Al-­‐Fawwar refugee camp. Jenin: Ya’bad, Qabatiya, Arraba, Jenin, Meithalun, Nazlat Ash-­‐Sheikh Zeid, Kufeirit, Beit Qad, Jenin refugee camp. Tubas: Tubas, Tayasir. Ramallah& al-­‐Bireh: Beituniya, Ramallah, Beit Liqiya, Bani Zeid, Deir Ibzi’, Saffa, Shuqba, Kharbtha bani harith, Dura al Qar’, al-­‐Am’ari refugee camp. Jericho: Al-­‐‘Auja, An-­‐Nuweima. Jerusalem: Al-­‐Ram, Al-­‐Dahyeh, Biddo, Beit Ikssa, Beit Hanina, Shu’fat, Old City, Al-­‐‘Esaweyeh, Ras Al-­‐Amoud, Qalandia refugee camp. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Al-­‐‘Ubeidiya, Beit Fajjar, Artas, Ad-­‐Duheisha refuge camp. Nablus: Nablus, Qabalan, Tell, Beit Wazan, Rujib, Deir al-­‐Hatab, Balata refugee camp. Salfit: Biddya, Deir Istiya. Tulkarem: Attil, Tulkarem, Illar, Qoffin, Kafr Sur, Nazlat‘Issa. Qalqilya: Qalqilya, Habla, Jayyus. In the Gaza Strip 450 people were surveyed from the following areas: Gaza: al-­‐Rimal a-­‐Shamali, a-­‐Rimal a-­‐Janoubi, a-­‐Zeitoun, a-­‐Shuja’ia, a-­‐Tufah, a-­‐Daraj, a-­‐Naser, a-­‐Sheikh Radwan,a-­‐sheikh Ajleen, Tal al-­‐Hawa, al-­‐Mughraga, Shati Refugee Camp. Khan Younis: Khan Younis, Absan al-­‐ Kabira, Abasan al-­‐Saghira, Bani Suheila, al-­‐Qarara, Khuza’, Khan Younis Refugee Camp. Rafah: Rafah, Shouket a-­‐Soufi, Rafah Refugee Camp. Gaza North: Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Jabalia Refugee Camp, Beit Hanoun. Deir al-­‐ Balah: Deir al-­‐Balah, Burij,-­‐Zawaydeh, Nussirat, al-­‐Maghazi Refugee Camp, Bureij Refugee Camp, Deir al-­‐Balah RefugeeCamp. The margin of error is ±3 percent, with a confidence level of 95%. Sample Distribution 52.5% of the respondents were from the West Bank, 10.0% from Jerusalem, 37.5% from the Gaza Strip. 16.7% said they live in villages 8.8% in refugee camps, and74.5% in towns/cities. 49.4% were male,%50.6 were female. 68.2% were married,%,25.3 single, 4.3% widowed, 1.9% divorced,0.3% no answer. The average age of the respondents was 36 years. Occupation of Respondents ⋅ Students12.8% ⋅ Laborers 11.9% ⋅ Housewives 37.6% ⋅ Farmers/fishermen 2.0% ⋅ Craftsmen 0.4% ⋅ Businessmen/private business 7.7% ⋅ Public Sector Employees. 11.1% ⋅ Private Sector Employees 6.0% ⋅ Professionals(e.g. doctors/lawyers/ pharmacists/engineers) 0.7% ⋅ Unemployed 7.8% ⋅ Retired 1.8%, ⋅ No answer 0.2%. Page 3

Results: Q1. In general, to what extent do you feel optimistic regarding the Palestinian future? Would you say that you are optimistic, cautiously optimistic, or pessimistic? Optimistic Caustiously optimistic Pessimistic No answer Total N= 1200 34.6 35.8 28.7 0.9 West Bank n= 750 37.2 32.7 29.3 0.8 Gaza n= 450 30.2 40.9 27.8 1.1 Q2. Do you know who the current Palestinian Prime Minster is?* Rami al-­‐Hamdallah Isma’il Haniyeh Others No No answer Total N= 1200 52.5 14.2 3.8 28.3 1.2 West Bank n= 750 62.4 0.1 4.7 31.5 1.3 • This is an open-­‐ended question, no options were given to the interviewee Gaza n= 450 36.0 37.8 2.2 23.1 0.9 Q3. The Palestinian Authority agreed to resume negotiations with Israel for nine months. In your opinion do you think that resuming the negotiations was a right decision or a wrong decision? Right decision Wrong decision I don’t know\ No answer Total N= 1200 33.8 50.5 15.7 West Bank n= 750 33.3 47.7 19.0 Gaza n= 450 34.7 55.1 10.2 Page 4

Q4. As for the current negotiations with Israel. Do you expect it to succeed or not in reaching an agreement? It will succeed in reaching an agreement It will not succeed in reaching an agreement I don’t know\ No answer Total N= 1200 20.8 68.7 10.5 West Bank n= 750 19.9 68.0 12.1 Gaza n= 450 22.2 69.8 8.0 Q5. Do you think the events that have been taking place in the Arab World over the past two years, which are sometimes called the Arab Spring, the Arab revolutions or the Arab intifadas, will contribute to changing the situation in the Arab World for the better? For the worse? Or will they not change the situation at all? They will change the situation in the Arab World for the better They will change the situation in the Arab World for the worse They will not change the situation I don’t know\ No answer Total N= 1200 28.0 42.6 24.1 5.3 West Bank n= 750 26.0 43.3 24.0 6.7 Gaza n= 450 31.3 41.3 24.2 3.2 Q6. Do you think the current events in the Arab World will ultimately be to the benefit of the Palestinian cause; will they be at the expense of the Palestinian cause; or will the events have neither a positive or negative impact on the Palestinian cause? They will be to the benefits of the Palestinian cause They will be at the expense of the Palestinian cause They will have neither a positive nor negative impact on the Palestinian cause I don’t know\ No answer Total N= 1200 16.6 50.2 28.1 5.1 West Bank n= 750 16.9 49.2 28.4 5.5 Gaza n= 450 16.0 51.8 27.6 4.6 Page 5

Q7. In terms of the conflict in Syria for more that two years, do you feel you are more sympathetic with Bashar Al Assad’s regime or with the opposition, which seeks to bring this regime down? Or are you unsympathetic towards both? I am more sympathetic with Bashar al-­‐ Assad regime I am more sympathetic with the opposition, which seeks to bring down the regime I am unsympathetic towards both No answer Total N= 1200 14.4 44.4 36.8 4.4 West Bank n= 750 19.7 31.1 43.5 5.7 Gaza n= 450 5.6 66.7 25.6 2.1 Q8. What's your opinion of the Oslo agreement? Would you say that you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose? Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose No answer Total n=1200 5.8 33.3 32.6 15.9 12.4 West Bank n= 750 5.2 31.3 29.7 18.3 15.5 Gaza n=450 6.9 36.7 37.3 12.0 7.1 Q9. On the 20 th anniversary of the Oslo Accords, do you think that the Oslo Accords served or harmed the Palestinian national interests or made no difference? The Oslo Accords served the Palestinian national interests The Oslo Accords harmed the Palestinian national interests The Oslo Accords made no difference I don’t know No answer Total n= 1200 25.6 34.8 28.7 5.8 5.1 West Bank n= 750 23.5 34.4 28.8 6.5 6.8 Gaza n=450 29.1 35.6 28.7 4.7 1.9 Page 6

Q10. This year marks the 20 th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Principles on arrangements for transitional self-­‐rule, known as the Oslo Accords and on which the Palestinian Authority was established. 20 years later, do you think it would have been better if these accords were never signed? Or was signing them better than not signing? It would have been better if the accords were never signed Signing them was better than not signing them I don’t know No answer Total N= 1200 37.6 45.8 11.8 4.8 West Bank n= 750 39.3 40.5 13.3 6.9 Gaza n=450 34.7 54.7 9.1 1.5 Q11. After six months on the formation of the new government, are you satisfied of it’s performance? Do you say that you are: Very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied I don’t know No answer Total N= 1200 7.4 41.0 18.0 14.4 16.5 2.7 West Bank n= 750 7.5 43.6 17.6 12.4 15.9 3.0 Gaza n=450 7.3 36.7 18.7 17.8 17.6 1.9 Q12. Do you think that Prime Minister Dr. Rami al-­‐ Hamdallah is doing a good, average, or a bad job as a Prime Minister? Good Average Bad I don’t know\ No answer Total N= 1200 24.4 35.6 12.6 27.4 West Bank n= 750 26.3 37.9 8.1 27.7 Gaza n=450 21.3 31.8 20.0 26.9 Page 7

Q13. After around six months on the formation of the new government headed by Dr. Rami al-­‐ Hamdallah, and in comparison with the previous one, would you say that the performance of the present government has become better, didn’t change, or became worse that it was before? It’s performance has become better It’s performance didn’t change It’s performance became worse I don’t know\ No answer Total n= 1200 26.4 39.9 11.3 22.4 West Bank n= 750 28.7 42.1 8.8 20.4 Gaza n=450 22.7 36.2 15.3 25.8 Q 14-­‐ There is a debate on the future of the PNA whereby some people believe that dissolving the PNA is necessary now while others believe that the perpetuation of the PNA and maintaining it is a necessity. What do you think? Dissolving the PNA is necessary Perpetuating and maintaining the PNA is a necessity I don’t know\ No answer Total n= 1200 24.3 65.1 10.6 West Bank n= 750 22.5 65.5 12.0 Gaza n=450 27.3 64.4 8.3 Q 15. In general, what is the best method to achieve the Palestinian people’s goals of ending the occupation and establishing a state? Peaceful negotiations Armed resistance(armed Intifada) Non-­‐violent resistance(peaceful Popular Intifada) Other I don’t know\ No answer Total n= 1200 32.3 29.3 27.1 2.5 8.8 West Bank n= 750 35.2 22.3 29.5 1.7 11.3 Gaza n=450 27.6 41.1 23.1 3.6 4.6 Page 8

Q 16. In your opinion, as an individual, which of the following options is most beneficial to improve the situation of the Palestinian people? Joining a Palestinian political party Becoming involved in a non-­‐ violent movement or organization(non-­‐affiliated to a political party)(e.g. popular committer against the wall) Taking part in regular non-­‐violent demonstrations against the Israeli occupation I don’t know No answer Total n= 1200 21.8 22.7 34.1 16.9 4.5 West Bank n= 750 18.3 20.9 33.9 21.1 5.8 Gaza n=450 27.6 25.6 34.4 10.0 2.4 Q 17. Some believe that a two-­‐state formula is the favored solution for the Arab-­‐Israeli conflict, while others believe that historic Palestine cannot be divided and thus the favored solution is a bi-­‐national state on all of Palestine where Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal representation and rights. Which of these solutions do you prefer? Two-­‐state solution: a Palestinian and an Israeli Bi-­‐national state on all of historic Palestine Total n= 1200 48.1 21.3 West Bank n= 750 45.6 23.9 Palestinian State* 13.3 12.7 Islamic State* 0.8 1.2 Others 1.5 0.3 No solution 11.3 12.1 I don’t know\ No answer 3.7 4.2 * These answers were not included as part of the options read to the interviewee Gaza n= 450 52.2 16.9 14.2 0.0 3.6 10.0 3.1 Q1 8. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied about the way that Mahmoud Abbas(Abu Mazen) is dealing with his job as a president to the Palestinian National Authority? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied No answer Total n= 1200 20.8 32.9 12.3 26.9 7.1 West Bank n= 750 24.0 33.6 12.0 21.9 8.5 Gaza n=450 15.3 31.8 12.7 35.3 4.9 Page 9

Q 19. Do you think that President(Abu Mazen) is doing his job well as president of the PNA? Good Average Bad No answer Total n= 1200 29.8 38.0 27.3 4.9 West Bank n= 750 34.0 38.8 20.8 6.4 Gaza n=450 22.9 36.7 38.0 2.4 Q 20. In your opinion, what is more important; holding Legislative council elections related to the PNA, or national council elections that are related to the PLO? Holding Legislative council elections Holding national council elections I don’t know No answer Total n= 1200 47.5 32.1 15.9 4.5 West Bank n= 750 43.5 30.7 19.6 6.2 Gaza n=450 54.2 34.4 9.8 1.6 Q 21. Do you expect PLC and presidential elections to be held within a year from now? I expect I don’t expect I don’t know No answer Total n= 1200 28.8 57.2 11.9 2.1 West Bank n= 750 27.5 54.0 16.0 2.5 Gaza n=450 31.1 62.4 5.1 1.4 Q 22. In general, how do you evaluate the performance of the PNA? Would you say it’s performance is very good, good, bad or very bad? Very good Good Bad Very bad No answer Total n= 1200 8.2 53.4 24.3 9.3 4.8 West Bank n= 750 8.1 54.7 22.7 8.5 6.0 Gaza n=450 8.2 51.3 27.1 10.4 3.0 Page 10

Q 23. Do you think that Hamas is more likely to agree to reconciliation with Fatah given the change in the situation in Egypt? Yes No No answer Total n= 1200 42.0 45.7 12.3 West Bank n= 750 40.8 43.7 15.5 Gaza n=450 44.0 48.9 7.1 Q 24. In your opinion, which side should be more blamed for the persisting division and the failure of efforts pertinent between Fatah and Hamas? Hamas movement Fatah movement Others Fatah and Hamas* Israel* I don’t know\ No answer Total n= 1200 30.5 17.8 3.8 18.5 7.8 21.6 West Bank n= 750 26.5 14.9 4.1 18.5 9.1 26.9 * These answers were not included as part of the options read to the interviewee Gaza n=450 37.1 22.4 3.3 18.4 5.8 13.0 Q2 5. Do you expect that all the parties will agree once again to the national unity government through the national dialogue between Fatah and Hamas? Yes, I expect the parties to agree to the national unity government No, I don’t expect the parties to agree to the national unity government I don’t know No answer Total n= 1200 37.8 49.3 10.8 2.1 West Bank n= 750 35.3 48.8 13.2 2.7 Gaza n=450 41.8 50.0 6.9 1.3 Page 11

Q 26. In your opinion, which is the most pressing issue that the PNA needs to tackle?(Choose only one)? Prisoners Unemployment Cost of living Solving the Palestinian – Israeli conflict Protecting the Palestinian vis-­‐a’-­‐ vis Israeli settlers Health care Others I don’t know\ No answer Total n= 1200 22.5 22.3 21.8 20.0 9.2 1.9 0.8 1.5 West Bank n= 750 28.1 16.8 24.5 18.4 8.3 1.9 0.3 1.7 Gaza n=450 13.1 31.3 17.3 22.7 10.7 2.0 1.6 1.3 Q 27. Do you think the security cooperation with Israel benefits the Palestinians or does not benefit the Palestinian? I think it benefits the Palestinians I think it does not benefit the Palestinians No answer Total n= 1200 36.4 53.0 10.6 West Bank n= 750 36.8 50.1 13.1 Gaza n=450 35.8 57.8 6.4 Q 28-­‐ In your opinion, should the security cooperation with Israel be stopped even if that would lead to an increase of incursions of the Israeli army into area A? I think the security cooperation should be stopped I think the security cooperation should be continued No answer Total n= 1200 49.3 36.3 14.4 West Bank n= 750 47.3 34.4 18.3 Gaza n=450 52.4 39.6 8.0 Page 12

Q 29. Which political or religious faction do you trust the most?* Fatah Hamas Other Islamic Factions Others I don’t trust anyone No answer Total n= 1200 32.0 16.0 3.4 3.1 39.1 6.4 West Bank n= 750 32.3 11.5 2.2 3.6 42.0 8.4 *This was an open-­‐ended question no options were read to the interviewee Gaza n= 450 31.6 23.6 5.1 2.2 34.2 3.3 Q 30. Which Palestinian personality do you trust the most?* Mahmoud Abbas(Abu Mazen) Isma’il Haniyeh Marwan Barghouthi Others I don’t trust anyone No answer Total n= 1200 20.6 11.8 5.9 15.3 39.6 6.8 West Bank n= 750 22.9 7.3 5.1 16.3 39.5 8.9 *This was an open-ended question no options were read to the interviewee Gaza n= 450 16.7 19.3 7.3 13.7 39.8 3.2 Q 31-­‐ If PLC elections were to take place today, which of the following parites would you vote for? Fatah Hamas Other Parties I don’t know No answer Total n=1200 37.1 18.8 9.3 18.3 16.5 West Bank n= 750 36.1 14.9 9.1 19.6 20.3 Gaza n= 450 38.7 25.3 9.8 16.2 10.0 Page 13

Q 32-­‐ If elections were to take place during 2014, which of the following candidates will you vote for, for a presidential positoin? Marwan Barghouthi Isma’il Haniyeh Mohamad Dahlan Moustafa Barghouthi Khalid Misha’al Salam Fayyad Mahmoud Zahhar I won’t vote No answer Total n=1200 29.8 14.3 4.9 4.6 4.4 2.4 1.5 27.8 10.3 West Bank n= 750 29.9 10.9 1.9 4.0 4.9 3.3 1.1 30.9 13.1 Gaza n= 450 29.6 20.0 10.0 5.6 3.6 0.9 2.2 22.7 5.4 Page 14