04. 2014 EDITORIAL Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, dear friends of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, as the nine-month negotiations period between Israel and Palestinians draws to a close, JMCC conducted its latest poll on Palestinian public opinion. The negotiations hit a stalemate over the Israeli refusal to release the last batch of pre-Oslo prisoners. The Palestinians did not feel bound to the deal anymore that required them to restrain from pursuing the international track: Signing international conventions and treaties that would pave the way for further internationalizing the conflict. As a consequence, President Abbas signed the Geneva conventions and other documents. Israelis are further irritated by a sudden move by Abbas that seeks to end the intra-Palestinian split between Hamas and Fatah, Gaza and the Westbank. Last week, an agreement was signed between the PLO and the Hamas leadership in Gaza to implement the previous commitments to restore national unity through elections. Abbas stated publicly that he is still willing to extend negotiations, if Israelis commit to a settlement freeze and release the remaining batch of pre-Oslo prisoners. The negotiations are lead by the PLO, the internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people living in the Palestinian Territories and in the diaspora. Therefore, from his point of view, national unity should not be seen as an obstruction to negotiations. The results of the public opinion poll show that President Abbas receives much back up from the Palestinian public for these moves. The majority of the public(62%) in the Westbank, Gaza and East Jerusalem is in favor of extending the negotiations, if the fourth group of pre-Oslo prisoners is being released. Without a release, however, 52% of the public is against extending negotiations. The two-state solution is still the most favored model for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. With regards to the question of which strategies the Palestinians should pursue to achieve their aims, a clear commitment to non-violence and negotiations is shown: 64.4% support peaceful negotiations or non-violent resistance. The approach of“Going to the UN” receives support of 68% of the Palestinian public. However, pessimism prevails that the conflict will be solved any time soon. The performance of US Secretary of State John Kerry as a mediator of the negotiations was judged as very poor: 74% were discontent with his role. Concerning the perspectives of upcoming parliamentary and presidential national elections Abbas and the Fatah movement have little to fear: The poll indicates that 43% trust Fatah the most, whereas Hamas receives trust from only 17% of the public. In case of presidential elections, the majority thinks that Marwan Barghouti would be the best figure to run for such a position. To release Barghouti as part of a deal in order to extend negotiations beyond the nine-month period has been discussed more seriously lately. It is, of course, up to Israel to decide whether they want to give Barghouti a chance to return to the political scene. If not, Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh ranks second in the poll as a figure to run for the presidency. Below you will find the complete study. We hope you find it interesting reading! With kind regards from Jerusalem, Your FES East-Jerusalem team Design: ery foto Seite 1 Jerusalem Office Tel.:+972-2-532 83 98 Fax:+972-2-581 96 65 Email: info@fespal.org Web: www.fespal.org PO Box: 25047 – Jerusalem 2976557 Fax: 02- 2976555 Tel. 02Email: poll@jmcc.org Website: www.jmcc.org Public Opinion Poll_81_April 2014 Conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre Majority opposes extending negotiations and majority supports extending them in exchange for Oslo prisoners Barghouthi most popular figure to run for election in which President Abbas is not a candidate Plurality sympathizes with President Abbas over Dahlan Division in satisfaction with performance of the PA Large majority has negative view of Kerry’s performance; dissatisfaction with performance of Obama Administration A public opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre(JMCC) in mid-­‐April 2014 showed a significant discrepancy in public opinion on the subject of extending the negotiations. The majority of Palestinians, 52.4%, said they objected to any extension after the nine-­‐month period as opposed to 39.6% who said they supported an extension. When the respondents were asked the same question but this time linking an extension with the release of the fourth group of pre-­‐Oslo prisoners, the majority, 62%, said they supported an extension if the prisoners were released, while 30.1% said they opposed it. When respondents were asked about the best options currently being discussed regarding the negotiations, 34.7% said they supported extending negotiations and going to the UN at the same time, as opposed to 33.4% who said they supported a halt to the negotiations and going to the UN; 19.9% said they supported a continuation of negotiations without going to the UN. Page 2 National Unity Respondents were split over the possibility that the dialogue between Fatah and Hamas could result in the formation of a national unity government. While 47.3% said they expected this to happen, 46.4% said the opposite. Marwan Barghouthi In regards to the popularity of factions and leaders, the poll showed that if presidential elections were held and President Abbas was not a candidate, 20.4% of respondents would favor Marwan Barghouthi as a candidate for the post while 10.3% said they preferred Ismail Haniyeh; the majority of those polled(47.2%) said they did not know or did not have an answer. As for which Palestinian figure is most trusted by the people, 25.2% said they trusted President Abbas, 13.5% said they trusted Haniyeh and 10% said they trusted Marwan Barghouthi; the plurality of those polled(28.4%) said they did not trust anyone. In regards to the political faction they trust most, 41.7% said they trusted Fatah while 16.8% said they trusted Hamas; the majority of those polled(28.5%) said they did not trust any faction. Dahlan It is clear that respondents sympathized more with President Mahmoud Abbas in his dispute with Mohammed Dahlan. Respondents were asked the question who they felt more sympathetic towards. 37.1% said they were more sympathetic towards President Abbas as opposed to only 5.4% who said they sympathized more with Dahlan. However, 46.1% said they did not sympathize with either. Solutions to the conflict In regards to solutions to the Palestinian cause in general and to a number of sensitive subjects in particular such as Jerusalem and refugees, the majority of respondents to this poll, 48.7% still said they supported the two-­‐state solution. 52.4% supported the two-­‐state solution in the March 2013 poll and 49.5% in the May 2012 poll. The solution of a binational state was the second choice of the public, with 18.8% in support of it in this poll, while 23.4% supported it in the March 2013 poll and 25.9% supported it in the May 2012 poll. As for the best solution to the issue of Jerusalem, the majority of respondents, 39.8%, said it was to have East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state with West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This is opposed to 22.6% who favored the option of a unified Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state, while 13.9% said they would prefer it to be an international city. As for the refugee issue, the majority, 66.8% favored their return to their original homes, while 9.5% said they supported their return to an independent Palestinian state. With regards to the best method of achieving the goals of the Palestinian people in ending the occupation and establishing their state, 39.1% supported negotiations as the best method. The public was equally split on the option of resistance, whereby 26.3% said they favored peaceful resistance and 26% said they favored armed resistance. Page 3 The poll also showed a consistently high level of pessimism among the public regarding the possibility of achieving a peaceful settlement to the Arab-­‐Israeli conflict. 63.1% said in this poll that they were pessimistic while 70.2% said they were pessimistic in the November 2012 poll and 64.6% in the April 2011 poll. Performance of the PA The poll showed a drop in the level of satisfaction towards the PA’s performance, decreasing from 67.6% in November 2011 to 61.6% in November 2013, and to 56% in this poll. As for the performance of the current government headed by Rami al-­‐Hamdallah in comparison to previous governments, the plurality, 38.8%, said it had not changed. As to whether Rami al-­‐Hamdallah’s current government has assisted in pushing the current PA reform process forward, 42.3% said it did not have any influence on the current reform process, 27.9% said it assisted in pushing the reform process forward and 12% said it pushed the reform process backward. Performance of the US In regards to the performance of US Secretary of State John Kerry and his role in sponsoring the negotiations, 73.8% said his performance was bad while 15.2% said it was good. As for the performance of the US Administration towards the Middle East, 51.7% of respondents said there was no change in its dealings with the Middle East’s problems, while 33.6% said there was regression in its dealings, and 7.0% said it had improved. Page 4 Methodology: A random sample of 1200 people over the age of 18 was interviewed face-­‐to-­‐face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip between 9 th and 14 th of April 2014. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 130 sampling points chosen randomly according to population. In the West Bank 750 people were surveyed from the following areas: Hebron: Dura, Hebron,Taffuh, Beit‘Awwa, Yatta, Beit Ummar, Beit Kahil, Adu-­‐hiriya, Kurza, Karma, Al-­‐‘Arrub refugee camp. Jenin: Qabatiya, Al-­‐Yamun, Kafr Ra’I, Silat adh-­‐daher, Meithalun, Az-­‐ Zababidah, Al-­‐Tayba, Jablabun, Jenin refugee camp.Tubas: Aqqaba, Wadi al-­‐Far’a. Ramallah& al-­‐ Bireh: Silwad, Der al-­‐Ghosson, Ramallah, Al-­‐Bireh, Beit Liqiya, Ras Karkar, Khirbet abu falah, Al-­‐Tira, Yabrud, Al-­‐Jalazun refugee camp. Jericho: Jericho, al-­‐Jiftlik. Jerusalem: Anata, Hizma, Birnabala, Jaba’, Beit Hanina, Shu’fat, Old City, Al-­‐Issawiyeh, Ras al Amoud, Qalandia refugee camp. Bethlehem: Nahalin, Bethlehem, Beit Fajjar, Beit Jala, Battir, Ad-­‐duheisha refugee camp. Nablus: Nalbus, Beit Furik, Rujeib, Awarta, Urif, Einabus, Ein beit il ma’ refugee camp. Salfit: Biddya, Deir Istiya. Tulkarem: Illar, Qoffin, Bal’a, Tulkarem, Zeita, Seida. Qalqilya: Qalqiliya, Jayyus. In the Gaza Strip 450 people were surveyed from the following areas: Gaza: al-­‐Rimal a-­‐Shamali, a-­‐Rimal a-­‐Janoubi, a-­‐Zeitoun, a-­‐Shuja’ia, a-­‐Tufah, a-­‐Daraj, a-­‐Naser, a-­‐ Sheikh Radwan,a-­‐sheikh Ajleen, Tal al-­‐Hawa, al-­‐Mughraga, Shati Refugee Camp. Khan Younis: Khan Younis, Absan al-­‐Kabira, Abasan al-­‐Saghira, Bani Suheila, al-­‐Qarara, Khuza’, Khan Younis Refugee Camp. Rafah: Rafah, Shouket a-­‐Soufi, Rafah Refugee Camp. Gaza North: Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Jabalia Refugee Camp, Beit Hanoun. Deir al-­‐Balah: Deir al-­‐Balah, Burij,-­‐Zawaydeh, Nussirat, al-­‐Maghazi Refugee Camp, Bureij Refugee Camp, Deir al-­‐Balah RefugeeCamp. The margin of error is ±3 percent, with a confidence level of 95%. Sample Distribution 52.5% of the respondents were from the West Bank, 10.0% from Jerusalem, 37.5% from the Gaza Strip. 16.7% said they live in villages 8.8% in refugee camps, and 74.5% in towns/cities. 47.7% were male, 52.3% were female. 68.8% were married, 24.3%,single, 5.3% widowed, 1.6% divorced, 0.0% no answer. The average age of the respondents was 37.6 years. Occupation of Respondents ⋅ Students 11.8% ⋅ Laborers 10.9% ⋅ Housewives 38.9% ⋅ Farmers/fishermen 2.0% ⋅ Craftsmen 0.2% ⋅ Businessmen/private business 8.0% ⋅ Public Sector Employees.9.1% ⋅ Private Sector Employees 5.9% ⋅ Professionals(e.g. doctors/lawyers/ pharmacists/engineers) 0.5% ⋅ Unemployed 9.9% ⋅ Retired 2.5%, ⋅ No answer 0.3%. Page 5 Results: Q1. In general, to what extent do you feel optimistic or pessimistic regarding the Palestinian future? Would you say that you are optimistic, cautiously optimistic, or pessimistic? Optimistic Caustiously optimistic Pessimistic No answer Total N= 1200 27.2 35.8 36.3 0.7 West Bank n= 750 27.6 32.0 39.5 0.9 Gaza n= 450 26.4 42.2 30.9 0.5 Q1. In general, to what extent do you feel optimistic or pessimistic regarding the Palestinian future? Would you say that you are optimistic, cautiously optimistic, or pessimistic? 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total West Bank Gaza Opkmiskc Causkously opkmiskc Pessimiskc No answer Page 6 Q2. Some believe that a two-­‐state formula is the favored solution for the Arab-­‐Israeli conflict, while others believe that historic Palestine cannot be divided and thus the favored solution is a bi-­‐national state on all of Palestine where Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal representation and rights. Which of these solutions do you prefer? Total West Bank n= 1200 n= 750 Two-­‐state solution: a Palestinian and an 48.7 45.2 Israeli Bi-­‐national state on all of historic Palestine 18.8 23.9 Palestinian State* 15.3 13.9 Islamic State* 1.0 1.2 Others 1.6 0.8 No solution 11.8 11.9 I don’t know\ no answer 2.8 3.1 * These answers were not included as part of the options read to the interviewee Gaza n= 450 54.4 10.2 17.8 0.7 2.9 11.8 2.2 Preferred Solution to the Paletinian Israeli conflict No solution, 11,8 I don’t know\ no answer, 2,8 Two-state solution: a Others, 1,6 Palestinian and an Israeli, 48,7 Islamic State*, 1 Palestinian State *, 15,3 Bi-national state on all of historic Palestine, 18,8 Page 7 Q3. How optimistic or Pessimistic are you towards reaching a peaceful settlement for the Arab-­‐Israeli conflict? Would you say that you are very optimistic, optimistic, pessimistic, or very pessimistic? Total West Bank Gaza N= 1200 n= 750 n= 450 Very optimistic 4.0 3.6 4.7 Optimisitc 30.8 30.9 30.4 Pessimistic 36.1 33.3 40.7 Very pessimistic 27.0 29.5 22.9 I don’t know\ no answer 2.1 2.7 1.3 Very optimistic, 4 Op]misitc , 30,8 Pessimistic, 36,1 Very pessimis]c , 27 I don’t know \ no answer , 2,1 Very optimistic, 3,6 Op]misitc , 30,9 Pessimistic, 33,3 Very pessimis]c , 29,5 I don’t know \ no answer , 2,7 Very optimistic, 4,7 Op]misitc , 30,4 Pessimistic, 40,7 Very pessimis]c , 22,9 I don’t know \ no answer , 1,3 Optimism and Pessimism towards a peacefull settlement towards the Arab Israeli Conflict 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total West Bank Gaza Page 8 Q4. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, strongly disagree peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israeli? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree I don’t know\ no answer Total N= 1200 15.8 38.9 19.8 22.3 3.2 West Bank n= 750 18.1 36.4 19.3 21.7 4.5 Gaza n= 450 11.8 43.1 20.4 23.1 1.6 Strongly agree, 15,8 Somewhat agree , 38,9 Somewhat disagree, 19,8 Strongly disagree, 22,3 I don’t know \ no answer , 3,2 Strongly agree, 18,1 Somewhat agree , 36,4 Somewhat disagree, 19,3 Strongly disagree, 21,7 I don’t know \ no answer , 4,5 Strongly agree, 11,8 Somewhat agree , 43,1 Somewhat disagree, 20,4 Strongly disagree, 23,1 I don’t know \ no answer , 1,6 Support and Opposition towards Peace Negotiations 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total West Bank Gaza Page 9 Q5. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied about the way that Mahmoud Abbas(Abu Mazen) is dealing with his job as a president to the Palestinian National Authority? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied No answer Total n= 1200 22.7 34.3 11.4 27.5 4.1 West Bank n= 750 23.2 34.5 12.3 24.5 5.5 Gaza n=450 21.8 33.8 10.0 32.4 2.0 Very sa]sfied, 22,7 Somewhat sa]sfied , 34,3 Somewhat dissatisfied , 11,4 Very dissaksfied , 27,5 No answer, 4,1 Very saksfied, 23,2 Somewhat sa]sfied , 34,5 Somewhat dissatisfied , 12,3 Very dissaksfied , 24,5 No answer, 5,5 Very saksfied, 21,8 Somewhat sa]sfied , 33,8 Somewhat dissatisfied , 10 Very dissaksfied , 32,4 No answer, 2 Satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas in dealing with his job 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total West Bank Gaza Page 10 Q6. In general, how do you evaluate the performance of the PNA? Would you say it’s performance is very good, good, bad or very bad? Very good Good Bad Very bad I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 9.5 46.5 23.0 18.2 2.8 West Bank n= 750 7.5 47.7 23.2 18.7 2.9 Gaza n=450 12.9 44.4 22.7 17.3 2.7 Evaluation of the performance of the PA 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total West Bank Gaza Very good, 9,5 Good, 46,5 Bad, 23 Very bad , 18,2 I don’t know \ no answer , 2,8 Very good, 7,5 Good, 47,7 Bad, 23,2 Very bad , 18,7 I don’t know \ no answer , 2,9 Very good, 12,9 Good, 44,4 Bad, 22,7 Very bad , 17,3 I don’t know \ no answer , 2,7 Page 11 Q7. Do you think that there is corruption in the PNA? Yes No I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 75.1 14.2 10.7 West Bank n= 750 76.1 12.3 11.6 Gaza n=450 73.3 17.3 9.4 Yes, 75,1 No, 14,2 I don’t know \ no answer , 10,7 Yes, 76,1 No, 12,3 I don’t know \ no answer , 11,6 Yes, 73,3 No, 17,3 I don’t know \ no answer , 9,4 Perception of corruption in the PNA 80 60 40 20 0 Total West Bank Gaza Page 12 Q8. Do you expect that all the parties will agree once again to form a national unity government through the national dialogue between Fatah and Hamas? Yes, I expect the parties to agree to form a national unity government No, I don’t expect the parties to agree to form a national unity government I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 47.3 46.4 6.3 West Bank n= 750 43.1 49.3 7.6 Gaza n=450 54.2 41.6 4.2 Yes, I expect the par]es to agree to form a na]onal unity government , 47,3 No, I don’t expect the par]es to agree to form a na]onal unity government , 46,4 I don’t know \ no answer , 6,3 Yes, I expect the par]es to agree to form a na]onal unity government , 43,1 No, I don’t expect the par]es to agree to form a na]onal unity government , 49,3 I don’t know \ no answer , 7,6 Yes, I expect the par]es to agree to form a na]onal unity government , 54,2 No, I don’t expect the par]es to agree to form a na]onal unity government , 41,6 I don’t know \ no answer , 4,2 Do you expect that all the parties will agree once again to form a national unity government through the national dialogue between Fatah and Hamas? 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total West Bank Gaza Page 13 Q9. Do you support the continuation of military operations against Israeli targets as an appropriate response under current political conditions or do you oppose them and believe they harm Palestinian national interests? I support them under the current conditions I oppose them and believe they harm Palestinian national interests Other I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 31.5 59.8 2.5 6.2 West Bank n= 750 26.9 62.7 2.8 7.6 Gaza n=450 39.1 54.9 2.0 4.0 Support for continuation of military operations agains Israeli trgets 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 I support them I oppose them and under the current believe they harm condikons Palesknian nakonal interests Other Total West Bank Gaza I don’t know\ no answer Page 14 Q10. In general, do you think the performance of the current government headed by Rami al-­‐Hamdallah is better when compared to previous governments? Didn’t change, or become worse? It’s performance has become better Didn’t change It’s performance has become worse I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 26.9 38.8 15.8 18.5 West Bank n= 750 31.6 38.8 13.6 16.0 Gaza n=450 19.1 38.7 19.6 22.6 It’s performance has become beper, 26,9 Didn’t change, 38,8 It’s performance has become worse, 15,8 I don’t know \ no answer , 18,5 It’s performance has become beper, 31,6 Didn’t change, 38,8 It’s performance has become worse, 13,6 I don’t know \ no answer , 16 It’s performance has become beper, 19,1 Didn’t change, 38,7 It’s performance has become worse, 19,6 I don’t know \ no answer , 22,6 Pereception of the perfomrance of the government headed by Rami Hamdallah 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total West Bank Gaza Page 15 Q11. Do you think that the current government headed by Rami al-­‐Hamdallah assisted in pushing the current PA reform process forward? Backward? Or it didn’t have any influence on the current reform process? It assisted in pushing the current PA reform process forward It assisted in pushing the current PA reform process backward It didn’t have any influence on the current reform process I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 27.9 12.0 42.3 17.8 West Bank n= 750 32.3 10.4 40.7 16.6 Gaza n=450 20.7 14.7 44.9 19.7 Perception towards the influence of Rami Hamdallah Government 50 45 40 35 Total, 27,9 West Bank, 32,3 Gaza, 20,7 Total, 12 West Bank, 10,4 Gaza, 14,7 Total, 42,3 West Bank, 40,7 Gaza, 44,9 Total, 17,8 West Bank, 16,6 Gaza, 19,7 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 It assisted in pushing the It assisted in pushing the It didn’t have any I don’t know\ no answer current PA reform current PA reform influence on the current process forward process backward reform process Page 16 Q12. What is your opinion about the performance of the US Administration headed by President Barack Obama five years after his inauguration regarding the Middle East? Do you think the United States has improved its dealings with the Middle East problems, or have you noticed regression or no change? There has been improvement in the dealings of the United States with the Middle East problems There has been regression in the dealings of the United States with the Middle East problems There has been no change in the dealings of the United States with the Middle East problems I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 7.0 33.6 51.7 7.7 Evaluation of the performance of the American Administration 5 years after Obama 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total West Bank There has been improvement in the dealings of the United States with T t h h e e re M h i a d s d b le ee E n a r s e t g p r r e o s b si l o e n m i s n , t 7 he dealings of the United States with the The M re id h d a le s E b a e s e t n p n rob c le h m an s g , 3 e 3 i , n 6 the dealings of the United States with the Middle East problems, 51,7 I don’t know \ no answer , 7,7 There has been improvement in the dealings of the United States with T t h h e e re M h i a d s d b le ee E n a r s e t g p r r e o s b si l o e n m i s n , t 8 he dealings of the United States with the Ther M e h id a d s le be E e a n st n p o ro c b h l a e n m g s e , 2 i 8 n ,3 the dealings of the United States with the Middle East problems, 56 I don’t know \ no answer , 7,7 There has been improvement in the dealings of the United States with T th h e er M e h id a d s l b e e E e a n s r t e p g r r o e b ss le io m n s i , n 5 t , h 3 e dealings of the United States with the Ther M e h id a d s le be E e a n st n p o ro c b h l a e n m g s e , 4 i 2 n ,4 the dealings of the United States with the Middle East problems, 44,4 I don’t know \ no answer , 7,9 West Bank n= 750 8.0 28.3 56.0 7.7 Gaza Gaza n=450 5.3 42.4 44.4 7.9 Page 17 Q13. If presidential elections were to be held soon and Mahmoud Abbas(Abu Mazen) was not a candidate, who do you think is the best Palestinian figure to run for such a position? Marwan al Barghouthi Isma’el Haniyeh Mohamad Dahlan Mustafa al Barghouthi Others I don’t know No answer Total n= 1200 20.4 10.3 3.9 3.7 14.5 34.3 12.9 West Bank n= 750 20.0 5.1 0.9 3.3 15.6 40.1 15.0 Gaza n=450 21.1 19.1 8.9 4.2 12.7 24.7 9.3 *This was an open-­‐ended question; no options were read to the interviewee Perception of the best Palestinian figure to run for President elections if Abbas was not to run No answer, 12,9 Isma’el Haniyeh, 10,3 Mohamad Dahlan, 3,9 Mustafa al Barghouthi, 3,7 I don’t know, 34,3 Others, 14,5 Page 18 Q14. In your opinion, what is the best solution to the question of Jerusalem? A unified Jerusalem(East and West) as a capital of the state of Israel East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state and West Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel. A unified open Jerusalem and capital of the two states. An international Jerusalem Total n= 1200 3.7 39.8 10.8 13.9 West Bank n= 750 2.1 36.8 14.0 14.9 Gaza n=450 6.2 44.7 5.3 12.2 Unified Jerusalem as the capital 22.6 23.5 21.1 of the Palestinian State* Arabic Islamic Jerusalem* 2.0 1.3 3.1 Others 0.8 1.1 0.4 I don’t know\ no answer 6.4 6.3 7.0 * These answers were not included as part of the options read to the interviewee Perception on the best way to resolve the Jerusalem issue Unified Jerusalem and a capital of the Pales]nian State*, 22,6 Arabic Islamic Jerusalem*, 2 Others, 0,8 A unified Jerusalem (East and West) as a capital of the state of Israel, 3,7 An interna]onal Jerusalem, 13,9 A unified open Jerusalem and capital of the two states., 10,8 East Jerusalem as the capital of the Pales]nian state and West Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel., 39,8 Page 19 Q15. With regards to the negotiations over the issue of the refugees, which of the following solutions do you favor? Return of all the refugees to their original homes Return of the refugees to the Palestinian state( West bank and Gaza strip) To compensate the refugees for their properties which they lost and for not returning to their properties and homes Return of some refugees to their homes, and return of some others to the Palestinian state and compensate the others Return of some refugees to the Palestinian state and compensate the refugees for their properties which they lost I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 66.8 9.5 5.3 8.1 8.3 2.0 West Bank n= 750 62.9 9.9 6.7 8.4 10.7 1.4 Gaza n=450 73.3 8.9 3.1 7.6 4.4 2.7 Return of all the refugees to their original homes, 66,8 Return of the refugees to the Palestinian state ( West bank and Gaza strip), 9,5 To compensate the refugees for their properties which they lost and for not returning to their properties and homes, 5,3 Return of some refugees to their homes, and return of some others to the Palestinian state and compensate the others, 8,1 Return of some refugees to the Palestinian state and compensate the refugees for their properties which they lost, 8,3 I don’t know \ no answer , 2 Perception towards the favored option to solve the refugee issue 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Favoured Option to Solve Refugee issue Page 20 Q 1 6. In general, what is the best method to achieve the Palestinian people’s goals of ending the occupation and establishing a state? Peaceful negotiations Armed resistance(armed Intifada) Non-­‐violent resistance (peaceful Popular Intifada) Other I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 39.1 26.0 26.3 3.3 5.3 West Bank n= 750 38.9 22.5 29.3 2.3 7.0 Gaza n=450 39.3 31.8 21.1 4.9 2.9 Q16. In general, what is the best method to achieve the Palestinian people’s goals of ending the occupation and establishing a state? Peaceful negotiations, 39,1 Armed resistance (armed Intifada), 26 Non-­‐violent resistance (peaceful Popular Inkfada), 26,3 Other , 3,3 I don’t know \ no answer , 5,3 Peaceful negotiations, 38,9 Armed resistance (armed Intifada), 22,5 Non-­‐violent resistance (peaceful Popular Inkfada), 29,3 Other , 2,3 I don’t know \ no answer , 7 Peaceful negotiations, 39,3 Armed resistance (armed Intifada), 31,8 Non-­‐violent resistance (peaceful Popular Inkfada), 21,1 Other , 4,9 I don’t know \ no answer , 2,9 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total West Bank Gaza Page 21 Q17. Differences between President Mahmoud Abbas and Mohammed Dahlan have recently escalated, reaching the point of mutual and public accusations. In light of the disparate accusations between them, who do you find yourself more sympathetic towards? I sympathize more with Mahmoud Abbas I sympathize more with Mohammed Dahlan I don’t sympathize with either I sympathize with both I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 37.1 5.4 46.1 3.4 8.0 West Bank n= 750 41.1 2.3 44.3 2.5 9.8 Gaza n=450 30.4 10.7 49.1 4.9 4.9 Support President Abbas in the recent differences with Dahlan I don’t know\ no answer, 8 I sympathize with both, 3,4 I sympathize more with Mahmoud Abbas, 37,1 I don’t sympathize with either, 46,1 I sympathize more with Mohammed Dahlan, 5,4 Page 22 Q18. With the end of the nine-­‐month timeslot for negotiations approaching at the end of April, to what extent do you support or oppose extending the negotiations? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 9.0 30.6 24.4 28.0 8.0 West Bank n= 750 9.9 31.2 20.8 28.1 10.0 Gaza n=450 7.6 29.6 30.4 27.8 4.6 With the end of the nine-month timeslot for negotiations approaching at the end of April, to what extent do you 35 30,6 30 28 24,4 25 20 31,2 28,1 20,8 29,6 30,4 27,8 15 10 9 5 9,9 8 10 7,6 4,6 0 Total West Bank Gaza Strongly support Strongly oppose Somewhat support I don’t know\ no answer Somewhat oppose Page 23 Q19. With the end of the nine-­‐month timeslot for negotiations approaching at the end of April, American-­‐Palestinian-­‐Israeli talks have recently been conducted on extending the negotiations in exchange for releasing the(fourth group) of pre-­‐Oslo[Accords] prisoners. What do you think? I strongly support extending the negotiations in exchange for the release of pre-­‐Oslo prisoners I somewhat support extending the negotiations in exchange for the release of pre-­‐Oslo prisoners I somewhat oppose extending the negotiations in exchange for the release of pre-­‐Oslo prisoners I strongly oppose extending the negotiations in exchange for the release of pre-­‐Oslo prisoners I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 32.0 30.0 14.8 15.3 7.9 West Bank n= 750 34.1 25.2 12.9 18.8 9.0 Gaza n=450 28.4 38.0 18.0 9.6 6.0 Perception towards extending negotiations in exchange for certain issues 40 38 35 32 30 30 25 34,1 28,4 25,2 20 14,8 15,3 15 10 7,9 18,8 12,9 9 18 9,6 6 5 0 Total West Bank Gaza I strongly support extending the negokakons in exchange for the release of pre-­‐Oslo prisoners I somewhat support extending the negokakons in exchange for the release of pre-­‐Oslo prisoners I somewhat oppose extending the negokakons in exchange for the release of pre-­‐Oslo prisoners I strongly oppose extending the negokakons in exchange for the release of pre-­‐Oslo prisoners I don’t know\ no answer Page 24 Q20. With the end of the nine-­‐month timeslot for negotiations approaching at the end of April, the current discussions revolve around what is the best option, extending the negotiations for an additional period or halting negotiations and going to the United Nations to complete procedures for membership of the PLO in the UN and in other international organizations? I agree with continuing negotiations I agree with halting negotiations and going to the UN I agree with continuing negotiations and going to the UN at the same time I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 19.9 33.4 34.7 12.0 West Bank n= 750 19.5 31.1 36.4 13.0 Gaza n=450 20.7 37.3 31.8 10.2 Position of continuation or freez of negotiations and going to the UN 40 33,4 34,7 36,4 31,1 37,3 31,8 30 19,9 20 10 19,5 12 20,7 13 10,2 0 Total West Bank Gaza I agree with conknuing negokakons I agree with halkng negokakons and going to the UN I agree with conknuing negokakons and going to the UN at the same kme I don’t know\ no answer Page 25 Q21. Around one year ago U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry succeeded to resume the Palestinian-­‐Israeli negotiations. How do you evaluate the performance of the U.S. Secretary of State in sponsoring the ongoing negotiations? Would you say that his performance is very good, good, bad, or very bad? Very good Good Bad Very bad I don’t know\ no answer Total n= 1200 1.6 13.6 34.4 39.4 11.0 West Bank n= 750 1.7 14.0 34.0 38.7 11.6 Gaza n=450 1.3 12.9 35.1 40.7 10.0 Evaluation of the performance of Secretary of State John Kerry 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total West Bank Gaza Very good Good Bad Very bad I don’t know\ no answer Page 26 Q22. Which political or religious faction do you trust the most?* Fatah Hamas Other Islamic factions Others I don’t trust anyone No answer Total n= 1200 41.7 16.8 3.7 4.5 28.5 4.8 West Bank n= 750 41.7 11.7 2.7 6.0 31.2 6.7 Gaza n= 450 41.6 25.1 5.3 2.0 24.0 2.0 *This was an open-­‐ended question; no options were read to the interviewee Trust in Political and/or religious factions No answer, 4,8 I don’t trust anyone, 28,5 Fatah, 41,7 Others, 4,5 Other Islamic fac]ons, 3,7 Hamas, 16,8 Page 27 Q23. Which Palestinian personality do you trust the most?* Mahmoud Abass Isma’el Haniyeh Marwan al Barghouthi Mohamad Dahlan Others I don’t trust anyone No answer Total n= 1200 25.2 13.5 10.0 3.0 12.8 28.4 7.1 West Bank n= 750 27.7 8.5 10.4 0.5 12.5 30.8 9.6 Gaza n= 450 20.9 21.8 9.3 7.1 13.1 24.4 3.4 *This was an open-­‐ended question; no options were read to the interviewee Palestinian Personalities and Trust No answer, 7,1 I don’t trust anyone, 28,4 Mahmoud Abass, 25,2 Others, 12,8 Mohamad Dahlan, 3 Isma’el Haniyeh, 13,5 Marwan al Barghouthi, 10 Page 28