STUDY UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES WHO DOES (NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? Voting is a crucial factor in a democracy. This paper analyses voter turnout trends in Ireland, particularly focusing on the sharp decrease since the 1990s. Understanding voter participation helps identify key factors contributing to this decline, which are critical for guiding policy reforms. This report shows that voter turnout is especially low among younger populations and in deprived urban communities with low rates of home ownership. Rural dwellers, particularly farmers, are more likely to vote. Increased education results in higher turnout, but is less of a factor than age. Guy Gerba October 2024 To combat declining turnout, the paper recommends modernising voter registration, reforming civic edu­ cation, and enhancing political engagement through targeted social media strategies, early voting options and introducing youth quotas to encourage broader electoral participation.

UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES – WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES WHO DOES (NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? B

Content INTRODUCTION 2 LOW VOTER TURNOUT: WHY DOES IT MATTER? 3 IRELAND: POLITICAL TRUST, VOTER TURNOUT TRENDS, ELECTION SYSTEM, THE REGISTRATION PROCESS 4 WHO ARE THE 8 SUMMARY: WHAT CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE PROFILE OF THE NON-VOTER IN 15 16 References  19

UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES – WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? INTRODUCTION Liberal democracy is founded on political equality, where every person’s interests deserve equal consideration in polit­ ical decisions. This principle mandates that all adults have the right to participate in making decisions that affect them, achievable only in a fully democratic system(Dahl, 1996, p. 639). This underscores the sanctity of free and equal vot­ ing rights. Nevertheless, voter turnout in the West is declin­ ing, with fewer people voting today than a generation ago (Dalton, 2017, p. 4). This trend may undermine democracy’s quality and functionality. driven primarily by the working class, youth, and less-edu­ cated individuals. This report investigates whether the same trends apply to Ireland. Ireland is no exception, with voter turnout in general elec­ tions dropping from 76 percent in 1981 to 62.6 percent in 2002, rebounding to 69 percent in 2011, before falling again to 65 percent in 2016(Cunningham& Marsh, 2018, p. 156, p. 375). The 2020 general election saw another low of 62.9 percent(Figure 1). This report explores the implications of low voter turnout from moral, social, and economic perspectives, examining how democracy is compromised as more people abstain from voting. Non-voting marginalises large population seg­ ments from influencing social and economic state policies. The paper presents a thorough analysis of voter turnout in Ireland, beginning with the importance of voting, followed by a historical overview of turnout patterns, and a scrutiny of the country’s distinctive electoral mechanism, proportional representation: single transferable vote(PR-STV) system. It investigates short- and long-term factors contributing to low turnout, such as registration issues, socioeconomic and geo­ graphical aspects, political mobilisation, and campaign expo­ sure. Local elections and referendums are also discussed, using data from the Unequal Democracies Comparative Data Set 1 and the Irish National Electoral Study(INES). The report concludes with findings and recommendations to improve voter turnout in Ireland. This report is part of the Unequal Democracies(UD) Series on voting inequality in Ireland. The UD series’ comparative reports(Elsässer et al. 2022; Wenker 2024) show that voter turnout is decreasing across North America and Europe, 1 The UD Comparative Data Set combines and harmonizes Compar­ ative Data Sets such as the European Social Analyses and National Election Studies. For more details consult the comparative study in Elsässer et al. 2022 2

Low Voter Turnout: Why Does It Matter? LOW VOTER TURNOUT: WHY DOES IT MATTER? Normative theories argue that equality of rights is funda­ mental to liberal democracy, with participation, especially voting, as the most crucial right. Voting is key to influencing government actions and is considered the primary citizen right(Verba, 2003, p. 663). It also fosters more engaged citizens, who are informed, aware, and attuned to the com­ plexities of democracy and the needs and rights of others (Dalton, 2017, p. 5). When everyone votes, governments better understand soci­ ety’s needs. Voting expresses public opinion, and if certain groups abstain, their influence on policy diminishes. This can marginalise vulnerable groups that need government support (Dalton, 2017, p. 5). The link between social class and politi­ cal participation highlights this risk, with evidence revealing lower turnout among those with less education and income (Lijphart, 1997; Gallego, 2007). A drop in turnout often reflects fewer disadvantaged voters participating, which affects election outcomes and policy directions, usually favouring right-leaning parties(Dalton, 2017; Lijphart, 1997). Politicians are under no obligation to prioritise the needs of people who do not vote: those who do not vote have no say in policy matters. This imbalance impacts resource allocation and policies on welfare, employ­ ment, and social security. It also influences other issues along fault lines like gender, age, religion, ethnicity, disability, sex­ ual orientation, and geography. Low turnout can distort the relationship between government and the governed, leaving some social groups unheard(Verba, 2003). Research by Elsässer et al.(2022) shows declining turnout in many countries in Europe and the Western world, linked to socio-economic inequality. Social class, age, and education predict election participation, especially among those under 30. In contrast, gender has little impact. The effects of age and education on turnout vary across Europe and AngloSaxon countries. 3

UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES – WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? IRELAND: POLITICAL TRUST, VOTER ­TURNOUT TRENDS, ELECTION SYSTEM, THE REGISTRATION PROCESS POLITICAL TRUST AND VOTER TURNOUT TRENDS In 1981, the first year for which data is available, trust in political institutions in Ireland was high by European stand­ ards. From then until 1999, trust declined due to multiple parliamentary scandals(Fahey et al., 2005). Between 2002 and 2006, trust in Ireland’s parliament, political parties, and politicians remained stable but dropped sharply with the onset of the economic crisis, continuing to decline during the recession. Prior to the crisis, satisfaction with democracy and government in Ireland was among the highest in Europe; post-crisis, it fell to some of the lowest levels(Breen and Healy, 2016). These studies are based on the European Value Survey and the European Social Survey. Laurence et al.(2023) analysed Eurobarometer data and noted that satisfaction with democracy was high and sta­ ble in Ireland between 1998 and 2006, at around 70 to 80 percent. In 2007, it sank to under 40 percent, recovering gradually from 2009 to 2014, though remaining lower than pre-crisis levels. From 2015 onwards, satisfaction increased rapidly, peaking at 83 percent in 2023, the highest in 25 years (Laurence et al., 2023, p. 33). This is compared to a 56 per­ cent average in other European countries(Kenna, 2022). Dif­ ferences based on age and education were minimal, with slightly higher satisfaction among older and more educated individuals(Laurence et al., 2023, pp. 34–38; Kenna, 2022). national independence overshadowed class-based politics. The Labour Party, founded in 1912, aimed to represent the interests of workers, but its influence was often secondary to the dominant nationalist political issues. This meant that while there was some mobilisation of voters, it was not as significant as in other European countries where the Labour movement was a major political force(Garvin, 1977). These historical elements may explain part of Ireland’s low voter turnout today. However, more contemporary factors are likely more significant. In the 1960s and 1970s, voter participation was notably high, with approximately 75 per­ cent of eligible voters consistently turning out to cast their ballots. This period was marked by a robust engagement in the democratic process, reflecting a strong commitment to civic duty and political involvement among the electorate. Numbers declined by about 10 percent over subsequent dec­ ades, with some recovery during the 2008-2013 recession following the subprime mortgage crisis and the collapse of the Fianna Fáil government. Until this point, Fianna Fáil had been the dominant party in Irish politics, governing for 60 of the 79 years since 1932, their first year in office(Weeks, 2018; Blais, Galais, and Reidy, 2017, p. 173). This increase could be associated with greater interest and involvement of the elec­ torate in politics due to the controversial bailout plan and the economic meltdown. Participation dropped again in the 2020 election(Figure 1). From the inception of the state, voting was not given a high priority, and turnout has been lower than in other established democracies. This can be attributed to several factors, includ­ ing the Irish Civil War(1922–1923), which caused political fragmentation and disillusionment among the population. Ireland’s economic struggles, marked by widespread pov­ erty, contributed to lower political engagement and voter turnout. These aspects combined to create an environment where many citizens were either unable or unwilling to par­ ticipate fully in the electoral process. The main parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, had similar, centre-right ideologies that represented the overall consensus of Irish society, which was mostly agrarian and conservative(Coakley, 2018). This could also have led to voter apathy. Unlike industrialised nations with strong trade unions and Labour parties, Ireland’s agrarian economy and focus on ELECTION SYSTEM Ireland employs the PR-STV method for elections to ensure proportionality between voter share and seat allocation, enhancing the significance of each vote and incentivising higher participation(Farrell& Sinnott, 2018, p. 96). Enshrined in the constitution in 1937, this system allows voters to rank candidates by preference, ensuring accurate representation. The architects of the system were sceptical of the influ­ ence of political parties. Consequently, party affiliations of candidates were omitted from ballots, possibly reflecting a deliberate effort to promote individual candidate assess­ ment over party allegiance. This design aimed to reduce partisan influence, encourage independent thinking among voters, and foster a more candidate-centric electoral pro­ cess. However, from 1965 onwards, party affiliations were included on ballots to reflect political realities and improve 4

Ireland: Political Trust, Voter ­Turnout Trends, Election System, the Registration Process Figure 1 Turnout in Ireland, 1961–2020 90 80 70 60 50 40 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1982 1987 1989 1992 1997 2002 2007 2011 2016 2020 Source: Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance(IDEA), data: http://www.idea.int/ voter understanding and decision making(Farrell& Sinnott, 2018, pp. 90–91). PR-STV is rare globally; Malta uses it for its lower house, and Australia still applies it for some elections (Farrell& McAllister, 2006). From the standpoint of the electorate, the process is straight­ forward: Ireland is divided into 39 constituencies, each with a unique list of candidates. Voters rank candidates by pref­ erence, marking their first choice to validate their vote and optionally listing additional preferences. This method pro­ vides a clear view of voter attitudes and ensures accurate reflection of their opinions. The approach is recognised as an equitable way to elect independent representatives and form multi-party coalitions, at times resulting in so-called‘rain­ bow’ governments comprised of parties from various parts of the political spectrum with diverse ideologies and interests. Criticisms include a perceived overemphasis on local issues by Teachta Dála(TDs), potentially neglecting broader national concerns(Farrell& Sinnott, 2018, pp. 94–110). VOTER REGISTRATION SYSTEM Ireland’s lower turnout can be partly attributed to its individ­ ual voluntary electoral registration system, which faces accu­ racy issues(O’Malley, 2001). Despite efforts to improve since the 2000s, the system remains largely unchanged due to differentiated local interests, and worries about its growing inaccuracies linger(Blais, Galais, and Reidy, 2017, p. 174). It is expected that the newly established Electoral Commission (An Coimisiún Toghcháin) will implement a modernised and systematic process to oversee the registration procedure(The Electoral Commission, 2023). Top of FormBottom of Form B efore examining the manifold of factors that affect voter turnout in Ireland, further explana­ tion is required regarding the apparent inaccuracy presented in the Irish voluntary voter registration system(O’Malley, 2001). Since the actual registration is at local authority level, there is the possibility of substantial variation in accuracy in different localities due to divergent administrative practices used. Local councils do not always have a full-time, profes­ sional staff to facilitate the process: temporary hires may not have the qualifications required(O’Malley, 2014). Rural areas generally have more accurate registrations compared to urban areas, where anonymity can lead to errors(O’Malley, 2001). Resource disparities among the 31 local authorities also contribute to registration issues, affecting voter partici­ pation and representation, particularly in regions with limited financial resources(Citizens Information; O’Malley, 2014). Inaccuracies in the electoral register could include double counting(multiple addresses for the same person e. g. col­ lege students), and inclusion of deceased or overseas indi­ 5

UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES – WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? Table 1 Number of electors on the register and estimated voting-age population Election Year 1981 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2011 Number of Electors on Register 2,275,450 2,335,153 2,445,515 2,557,063 2,741,262 3,002,173 3,110,914 3,209,244 Estimated Voting-age Population(Number) 2,144,862 2,177,924 2,286,993 2,390,054 2,563,285 2,739,999 2,912,197 3,074,898 Register as% of Real Electorate 106% 107% 107% 107% 107% 109% 107% 104% Source: Oireachtas Library& Research Service. Election Turnout in Ireland: measurement, trends and policy implications. Figure 2 Turnout General Elections 1981–2011 as proportion of the Register and of the Voting-Age Population(VAP, in%) 90 81 80 78 78 76 73 73 72 73 73 73 71 69 70 69 68 66 70 67 63 60 50 40 1981 1982 1987 1989 Turnout REG Source: Oireachtas Library& Research Service, 2016 1992 1997 Turnout VAP 6 2002 2007 2011

Ireland: Political Trust, Voter ­Turnout Trends, Election System, the Registration Process viduals. While adding to the register is easy, there is no sys­ tematic mechanism for verifying individuals included therein or removing invalid entries, leading to inflated registration figures and a perceived lower turnout(Table 1). This chronic issue distorts actual voter turnout, especially in more mobile areas, mainly Dublin and other large cities(O’Malley, 2001). One estimate suggests there are up to 500,000 more indi­ viduals on the register than there are eligible voters(Blais, Galais, and Reidy, 2017, p. 174; McMorrow, 2006). An alternative approach, using the estimated voting-age pop­ ulation(VAP) as derived from the census, suggests that Irish voter registration exceeds official records. Election data span­ ning 30 years shows a 3 to 5 percent difference in the results for the two methods(Figure 2). Regardless of the method cho­ sen, it is clear that Irish election turnout has markedly declined since the 1980s and, despite recovering from a 2002 all-time low, has yet to return to the levels observed in the 1981 elec­ tion(Oireachtas Library& Research Service, 2016). 7

UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES – WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? WHO ARE THE NON-VOTERS? LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM FACTORS FOR LOW TURNOUT When analysing the factors behind low voter turnout in Ireland, it is essential to differentiate between short-term and long-term reasons for abstention. A study from the early 1990s identified short-term reasons such as recent relocation, being too busy, illness or disability, or not being registered as common causes for not voting(Marsh, 1991, p. 4). The author was relatively sanguine about these shortterm non-voting factors, referring to them as transient, and indicating that this type of absence from voting has mini­ mal impact on the overall health of the political system. On the other hand, consistently abstaining from voting in the long-term was viewed as detrimental to the vitality of political institutions and the electoral process. Contributing factors included a disinterest in politics, lack of confidence in parties’ capabilities to provide effective solutions, failure to register to vote, and a pervasive distrust in the overall political system. Such disengagement can lead to weakened democratic processes and reduced accountability among elected officials. The study found that Irish non-voters were roughly evenly split between short-term and long-term reasons, with a slight bias towards short-term non-voters (Marsh, 1991, p. 12). Nearly two decades later, the same researcher revisited the issue of circumstantial abstention, finding almost identical causes in somewhat similar numbers. Analysis of the 2002 election revealed that more prevalent grounds for not voting were being away from home for holidays, work, or medical needs. Voluntary non-voting, arising from factors including disinterest, mistrust, or simply a lack of information in pol­ itics and political systems, was less common. The ratio of circumstantial abstention to voluntary abstention was two to one. It was also noted that individuals strongly identifying with a political party, or whose parents share the same affil­ iation, are less likely to abstain voluntarily. Exposure to politi­ cal campaigns and messaging can further mitigate voluntary abstention by engaging voters and reinforcing their sense of political identity and participation(Marsh et al., 2008). SOCIOECONOMIC AND GEOGRAPHICAL FACTORS The two primary strands of socioeconomic research on voter turnout in Ireland are the urban-rural divide and the advan­ taged versus the disadvantaged. When viewing the country as a whole, it can be seen that turnout in Dublin and other cities tends to be lower than that in rural areas(Kavanagh, 2004; Table 2 Constituencies with highest turnout as% of REG and% of VAP(2011) Highest Turnout Lowest Turnout Share of Register Constituency Roscommon-South Leitrim Tipperary North Kerry South Wicklow Dublin North Central Donegal North East Meath West Dublin South Central Dublin Central Dublin South East % 78.6% 77.2% 74.9% 74.8% 73.1% 64.9% 64.7% 64.5% 61.6% 60.5% Source: Oireachtas Library& Research Service, 2016 8 Share of Estimated VAP Constituency Roscommon-South Leitrim Kerry South Cork North West Tipperary North Cork South West Kildare South Dublin North West Dublin South Central Dublin Central Dublin South East % 84.9% 84.5% 82.5% 82.3% 82.0% 66.3% 63.6% 61.0% 54.8% 53.8%

Figure 3 Voter turnout level(%) at the 2016 general election by Dáil constituency Who Are the Non-Voters? < 55.0 60.0 62.5 65.0 67.5 70.0> Source: Map based on analysis by Dr. Adrian Kavanagh, Maynooth University Department of Geography Oireachtas Library& Research Service, 2016). For example, dur­ ing the 2002 general election, the average turnout in the Dub­ lin region was much lower, at 56.3 percent, than the overall turnout of 65.2 percent for the rest of the country(Kavanagh, 2004, p. 4). The same was true for the 2011 general election (Table 2), in which four out of the five constituencies with the lowest turnout were predominantly urban, whereas three predominantly rural constituencies recorded the highest voter turnout(Oireachtas Library& Research Service, 2016, p. 7). In 2016, the same pattern emerged once again, confirming notably lower voter turnout from the three constituencies situated within the inner city of the capital: Dublin Cen­ tral(52.4 percent), Dublin Bay South(54.8 percent), and Dublin South-Central(58.1 percent). In contrast, largely rural constituencies boasted the greatest participation sta­ tistics, with Roscommon-Galway(71.6 percent), Wicklow (70.9 percent), and Kerry(70.9 percent) leading the way in turnout(Figure 3). 9

UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES – WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? The second strand of research, focusing on the advantaged versus the disadvantaged, specifically focuses on Dublin, the largest metropolitan area in the Republic. Depending on how it is defined, the greater Dublin area is home to between one-quarter and half of the Irish population. Therefore, a detailed and nuanced appraisal of voter turnout within this specific area is particularly pertinent. Research points to a considerable correlation between voter turnout and various socioeconomic factors such as demographic composition, social well-being, population mobility patterns, and hous­ ing tenure. In general, areas within Dublin characterised by higher levels of affluence, demographic maturity, and res­ idential stability tend to have elevated voter turnout rates, while regions with younger populations, higher residential mobility, and lower socioeconomic status experience reduced electoral participation(Kavanagh, 2004, p. 23; Kavanagh& Durkan, 2020). Lyons and Sinnott(2003) identify non-vot­ ers as predominantly young, single, students, working-class, unemployed, and living in urban areas with low levels of home ownership(Blais, Galais, and Reidy, 2017, p. 176). This trend was again observed in the 2011 general elec­ tion, where higher turnout was correlated with the middle class and those in areas with little population movement. Older, more settled working-class communities also exhib­ ited higher turnout. Lower turnout was again experienced in areas with a more deprived population and greater mobility (Oireachtas Library& Research Service, 2016, p. 7–8). The same tendency was also observed in the 2016 general elec­ tion, although the gap between middle- and working-class areas had narrowed considerably. This shift could be related to the diminishing influence of social class and the increasing importance of residential mobility, where individuals from working class backgrounds can relocate to more affordable areas for homeownership(Kavanah& Durkan, 2020). Furthermore, rural areas, typically associated with an older population and less mobility, usually have higher attendance at polls(Kavanagh, Mills& Sinnott 2004; McKenzie and Del­ aney 2005). The Irish National Electoral Study(INES) sug­ gests a pattern of lower turnout in general elections for the youngest eligible voters, those aged 18 to 25 years, although information is only available for the period from 2002 to 2011(Figure 4). A similar pattern is evident in the European Social Survey, where a gap of approximately 30 percent exists between the younger group and those aged 60 or above, with the higher participation rates in the older group(Fig­ ure 5). Further analysis reveals that voter absenteeism is even higher among young people with minimal education(Oire­ achtas Library& Research Service, 2016, p. 8). Another key element that potentially has a strong bearing on higher voter turnout in rural areas is the“friends-andneighbours effect”. In the Irish context it is aptly described Figure 4 Self-reported turnout of 18–25 age group versus all ages(in%) 100 76.3 80 60 53.3 40 79.2 69.2 89.7 75.4 20 0 2002 Source: Irish National Electoral Study 2007 Age 18–25 All ages 10 2011

Who Are the Non-Voters? Figure 5 The age effect in voting participation(in%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 2002 2007 Under 30 Source: UD Comparative Data Set/ ESS 2011 30–44 45–60 2016 Over 60 2020 as‘parish-pump’(Carty, 1983) where voters will put more trust in, and thus overwhelmingly support, candidates who hail from their locality(Gimpel et al., 2008). A more for­ mal definition is‘the propensity for a candidate to receive a greater proportion of support around his/her home area than elsewhere in a constituency’(Johnson, 1989, p. 93). This phenomenon is an important consideration when analysing Irish voting behaviour(Gorecki& Marsh, 2011; Kavanagh, Durkan& D’Arcy, 2020, p. 198). candidates won their highest levels of support in and around their local areas(Kavanagh, Durkan& D’Arcy, 2020, p. 216). This ongoing preference for local representatives highlights the potential importance of local mobilisation and campaign exposure. POLITICAL MOBILISATION AND ­CAMPAIGN EXPOSURE In 1981, Marsh indicated that this phenomenon was the pri­ mary determinant for close to one in four voters. Although this number has decreased since then, recent evidence illus­ trates a resurgence in the importance that voters place on local issues, leading voters to favour candidates who prior­ itise these in their campaigns(Gallagher and Suiter, 2017). Studies have shown that the local factor affects attitudes more strongly in rural areas(Sacks, 1970; Parker, 1982) but also to some extent in urban areas(Johnson, 1989). For instance, in an RTÉ exit poll for the 2016 election, five times as many voters from the rural Connacht-Ulster region cited a constituency matter as their top voting issue as did their cohort from the capital. In another survey, 35 percent of Dublin voters prioritised candidates who would address the needs of the constituency, in contrast to 42 percent of those from Connacht-Ulster. The 2020 election further underscored the significance of localism in Irish politics as Evidence suggests that political mobilisation centred on local candidates can significantly impact voter turnout(Kavanagh, 2002). An example of this was seen in the Laois-Offaly con­ stituency during the 2002 election, where turnout varied considerably between different areas. Provincial towns that were focal points of candidate activity experienced higher voter turnout compared to other towns in the area(Kavan­ agh, Mills& Sinnott, 2004, pp. 184–185). Geographical canvassing was a prominent tool for political mobilisation and campaigning in the 2020 election. Parties and independent candidates recognised the importance of localism and the socioeconomic makeup of specific areas within different constituencies, tailoring their campaigns accordingly to mobilise voters. Success stories include local candidates in Louth, specifically the towns of Dundalk and Drogheda, and in the Limerick constituency. Left-wing can­ didates fared better in working-class areas of Dublin, while 11

UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES – WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? right-wing candidates had more success in middle-class districts of the capital(Kavanagh, Durkan& D’Arcy, 2020, pp. 204–216). GENDER AND EDUCATION FACTORS Gender does not appear to affect voter turnout significantly (Figure 6), with the exception of the friends-and-neigh­ bours effect, but evidence suggests that male candidates generally attract more votes than female candidates. This observation raises concerns about the potential impact of mandatory female quotas on the perceived effectiveness of localism(Brennan& Buckley, 2017; Mullaney, 2019). Intro­ duced in 2012 as part of an amendment to the Electoral Political Funding Act, gender quotas mandate that funding for political parties will be halved unless their candidates for the general election are at least 30 percent women and 30 percent men. This quota was enforced starting with the 2016 general election and increased to 40 percent in 2023 (Buckley& Mariani, 2024). In relation to education, as mentioned above, studies sug­ gest that the poor turnout of youths is linked to lower levels of education, typically seen in socioeconomically deprived areas. However, the picture becomes more complex when taking into account the increased voter turnout in rural areas, which typically have older populations and farming commu­ nities, two groups that are traditionally less educated. This suggests that age may be a more significant factor in voter turnout than education(Blais, Galais, and Reidy, 2017, p. 175; Kavanagh, Mills& Sinnott, 2002, p. 185). The European Sur­ vey also illustrates fluctuations in the complicated relation­ ship between turnout and education(Figure 7). Potential reasons age might outweigh education as a factor in voting could be the sense of civic duty, where voting is seen as a moral obligation of good citizenship; or the importance of localism, which is more pronounced in rural areas. LOCAL ELECTIONS AND REFERENDUMS Voting trends in local elections mirror those in general elec­ tions with similar patterns exhibited among non-voters, who are primarily located in working-class areas. For example, Tal­ laght South, a Dublin suburb, recorded just 27 percent turn­ out(Kavanagh, 2019). Turnout in local elections has fallen considerably from 67 percent in 1967 to around 50 percent in 2014. Evidence shows that in local elections, there is a less pronounced gap between the level of turnout when meas­ ured as a proportion of the estimated voting-age population (VAP) and turnout as a proportion of the register(figure 8). This is because more people are eligible to vote in local elec­ tions, making the register turnout more accurate, although concerns about the accuracy of the local electoral register persist(Oireachtas Library& Research Service, 2016, p. 9). Figure 6 Willingness to vote by gender in general election(Ireland, in%) 90 80 70 2002 Source: UD Comparative Data Set 2007 Male 2011 Female 2016 12 2020

Figure 7 Willingness to vote by education level in general election(Ireland, in%) 90 Who Are the Non-Voters? 80 70 60 2002 Source: UD Comparative Data Set 2007 Low 2011 Medium High 2016 Figure 8 Local elections 1974–2014: Turnout as% of Register and by Voting-age Population 70 67.0 2020 63.6 62.1 60 59.0 57.8 58.6 55.6 51.7 50 50.2 40 1967 1974 1979 1985 1991 Turnout REG Source: Oireachtas Library& Research Service, 2016 13 1999 Turnout VAP 2004 2009 2014

UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES – WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? Rural communities continue to have higher turnout, while Dublin and its suburbs recorded the lowest turnout in the 2014 local elections at just 43 percent(Kavanagh, 2014). Referendums are common in Ireland due the mandatory requirement stipulated in the 1937 constitution that any pro­ posed amendment be decided by popular vote(Gallagher, 2018). Additionally, there are ordinary referendums that do not involve constitutional amendments. Since 1937, 44 ref­ erendums have been conducted(Coakley& Gallagher, 2018, pp. 380–381; The Electoral Commission, 2024), making them a crucial decision-making tool in Irish politics(Barrett, 2017; Munley, Garcia-Rodriguez& Redmond, 2023). Irish ref­ erendums can be divided into two main categories: those addressing social issues and those concerning administrative and legal matters(Munley, Garcia-Rodriguez& Redmond, 2023, p. 372). Turnout for referendums varies significantly, often influenced by the issue’s salience and public profile. Social and European issues tend to attract higher turnout than administrative and legal referendums. Examples of high-turnout referendums include the 1972 referendum on accession to the European Community(70.9 percent), the 1992 referendum on abortion (68.2 percent), the 1995 referendum on divorce(62.2 per­ cent), the 2004 referendum on citizenship(60 percent), the 2009 referendum on the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty (59 percent), the 2015 referendum on same-sex marriage (60.5 percent), and the 2018 referendum on abortion legal­ isation(64 percent). In contrast, low-turnout examples from Referendum Ireland include the 1996 referendum on refusal of bail(29.2 percent), the 2001 referendum on Ireland joining the International Criminal Court(34.8 percent), and the 2013 referendum on abolishing the Seanad and creating a criminal court(39.2 percent). Unlike general and local elections, middle-class urban con­ stituencies typically record the highest turnout in referen­ dums(Kavanagh, 2013). Regular referendum voters tend to be older, have higher incomes, and hold conservative views (Munley, Garcia-Rodriguez& Redmond, 2023, p. 387). This may be because, in the absence of extensive door-to-door canvassing, common in general elections, especially in rural areas, individual voter characteristics take precedence. Those who see voting as a civic duty or moral obligation and those with access to information and higher education are more likely to vote without direct outreach(Blais, Galais, and Reidy, 2017; Cunningham& Marsh, 2018, pp. 157–158). 14

Summary: What Can be Said About the Profile of the Non-Voter in Ireland SUMMARY: WHAT CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE PROFILE OF THE NON-VOTER IN IRELAND Irish voter turnout has decreased substantially over the past several decades, reaching an all-time low in the 2002 elec­ tion, with another notable dip in the 2020 election. The vol­ untary registration system is plagued by inaccuracies, poten­ tially leading to the inclusion of 500,000 non-existent voters on the register. Even when allowing for this erroneous count, a reduction in the percentage of voters persists. This trend is apparent both in local elections and referendums, albeit to varying degrees depending on the issue at hand. Due to the uniqueness of Ireland’s electoral system, which heavily emphasises localism, certain key factors can be inferred. Elsässer et al.(2022) identified that the main groups abstain­ ing from voting are those with lower education levels and working-class backgrounds. Their research also highlighted that social class further amplifies the gap in voting partici­ pation, particularly among those under 30. While the study on Ireland supports the finding that older people vote more, it also reveals important differences, particularly concerning social class in rural areas. There is a tendency for people with lower education and social class(specifically farmers and small business owners) to vote more in these areas. A distinct urban-rural disparity exists in voter turnout, with higher attendance rates observed in predominantly rural con­ stituencies compared to urban regions. Underscoring this, voter turnout is lowest in the Dublin metropolitan area, par­ ticularly in the Inner-City regions. This pattern stems from the predominance of older voters, farmers, and homeowners in rural areas, who tend to vote more frequently. Conversely, younger individuals, the working class, and renters are more concentrated in urban areas and exhibit lower voter turnout rates. Contributing to this differentiation, the friends-andneighbours’ effect also impacts voter turnout, with local can­ didates garnering greater support, particularly in rural areas. 15

UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES – WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? RECOMMENDATIONS Declining voter turnout in Ireland has motivated academic circles to offer potential solutions, one relating to the timing of elections. However, it was found that neither weekend voting nor the time of the year of the election reflected any noteworthy change to voter turnout. This could be explained by changing work patterns that allow people more flexibility over their schedules. The same was true for the extension of the polling day hours(Quinlan, 2015). Therefore, recom­ mendations need to be directly related to voter registration. has launched the Learning Hub, a platform designed to com­ pile all relevant information about Irish democracy, the con­ stitution, the country’s voting system, and the importance of voting. The Commission also plans to deliver educational programmes to raise public awareness of and participation in the democratic process and electoral events(The Elec­ toral Commission). The introduction of civic education pro­ grammes, starting in schools, could enhance awareness of the importance of voting(Quinlan, 2015, p. 500). MODERNISING THE ELECTORAL ­REGISTRATION In February 2023, an independent electoral commission began organising and coordinating all issues relating to elec­ tion matters. This followed persistent calls to overhaul the previous fragmented election system, which required exten­ sive modernisation(Farrell 2013, 2014; Reidy, 2014). The newly founded commission’s main functions include review­ ing constituencies, registering political parties, reporting on elections, conducting general research, and engaging with the public(The Electoral Commission, 2023). The Commission will also serve as a permanent referendum committee, facilitating all aspects of organising votes(The Electoral Commission, 2023). A key function of the Commis­ sion is to modernise the Electoral Register, setting standards for its maintenance and keeping it updated. More accurate voter registration will provide a clearer picture of actual voter turnout and the main trends derived from it. A possible ave­ nue could be the introduction of an automatic voter registra­ tion that could help reduce the inaccuracies currently present in the voter registration, specifically with younger voters who are usually more mobile and are less comfortable with the current bureaucracy involved(Daly, 2021, p. 14) Reform of civic education in schools: Civic, Social, and Polit­ ical Education(CSPE) is a subject taught in the Irish educa­ tion system for Junior Cycle only(ages 12–15)(O’Brien, 2023, p. 8). However, it was removed from the Junior Certificate as an examinable subject in 2019, and replaced with an optional Leaving Certificate subject(ages 16–18), Politics and Soci­ ety(Donnelly, 2019). Young interviewees reported receiving a substandard civic education, adding that the curriculum lacked detail including an insufficient emphasis on under­ standing the electoral system and function of the Dáil(Daly, 2021). Teachers of the subject indicated that the subject had a low status compared to other subjects, and that there was a notable gap between the way CSPE was conceptualised and the way it was implemented(O’Brien, 2023, p. 16). This gap stemmed from a lack of financial resources and teachers without proper qualifications, ultimately meaning only the well-resourced schools offered the subject in a comprehen­ sive manner(Daly, 2021, p. 11). Enhancing social media involvement and presence: low turnout is especially present with younger voters, who often draw their knowledge from social media rather than from traditional media sources. Social media outlets are often more prone to dangers of disinformation and manipulation, therefore it is of vital importance to increase the involvement of official institutions and to provide fast, clear, and accurate information. VOTER EDUCATION Before the formation of the Electoral Commission, there was no central national system to organise the information needed for voters to be informed about upcoming elections and referendums. Little information was provided about the functions of parliament, European institutions or how to vote at polling stations(Reidy, 2014). The Electoral Commission EARLY VOTING Postal voting in Ireland is limited: it is only available to diplo­ mats and their spouses living abroad, full-time members of the defence forces, and people with a unique and rare set of circumstances(Citizen’s Information). Relaxing the restric­ tions and introducing early voting could have a positive influ­ 16

ence on voting, specifically for anyone abstaining from voting due to circumstantial reasons such as being abroad(no way of voting, even for those on short trips), illness or disability (very strict conditions), and students who live far from their registration constituency(Marsh, et. al, 2008; Reidy; 2014). THE INTRODUCTION OF YOUTH QUOTAS Running for election is time-consuming and requires consid­ erable financial resources. Young candidates are usually at a disadvantage compared to their older counterparts who have had more years to accumulate wealth and social networks. The introduction of youth quotas will ensure that young peo­ ple are playing an active part in policymaking and can inspire their peers to become more involved in politics(Daly, 2021). This is especially important in a country like Ireland, which exhibits strong localism. In conclusion, by reforming civic education, expanding early voting options, and introducing youth quotas, Ireland can pave the way for a more engaged and inclusive democracy. With these measures in place, the nation can empower its citizens, particularly its youth, to actively participate in shap­ ing the future of their country. Recommendations 17

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Imprint ABOUT THE AUTHOR IMPRINT Guy Gerba is a PhD candidate in the Department of Gov­ ernment and Politics at University College Cork. He pub­ lished several articles about Irish politics and is a data issue co-editor of the Irish Politics Studies journal. His research focuses on radical populist parties in Europe. Publisher: FES Regional Office for International Cooperation Democracy of the Future Reichsratsstr. 13/5 A-1010 Vienna Responsibility for content: Johanna Lutz| Director, Democracy of the Future Phone:+43 1 890 3811 301 X:@FES_Democracy democracy.fes.de Contact / Orders: democracy.vienna@fes.de Design: pertext, Berlin| www.pertext.de The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung(FES) or of the organ­ ization for which the author works. Commercial use of media published by the FES is not permitted without the written consent of the FES. Publications by the FES may not be used for electioneering purposes. ISBN 978-3-98628-606-4 © 2024 ABOUT UNEQUAL DEMOCRACIES Unequal Democracies is a project by FES Democracy of the Future. The main goal is to promote comparative under­ standing of why inequality in voting, political representation and other democratic processes hurt our democracies. In the series Who does(not) have a seat in Parliament? we analyse the social representation of European parliaments. In the series Who does(not) vote? we investigate election turnout levels across the parameters gender, age, social class and education in European democracies. Both series contain comparative studies and selective coun­ try reports. The comparative studies lay out general trends while the country reports provide country-specific analy­ ses about the state of particular national contexts with the aim to develop and discuss political recommendations for decision-makers. More information at: https://democracy.fes.de/topics/inequality-democracy 21

WHO DOES(NOT) VOTE IN IRELAND? Why should the Irish care about turnout? Who are the Irish non-­voters? What should be done? Voting is a crucial factor in a democ­ racy. This paper analyses voter turnout trends in Ireland, particularly focus­ ing on the sharp decrease since the 1990s. Understanding voter participa­ tion helps identify key factors contrib­ uting to this decline, which are critical for guiding policy reforms. This report shows that voter turnout is especially low among younger popu­ lations and in deprived urban commu­ nities with low rates of home owner­ ship. Rural dwellers, particularly farm­ ers, are more likely to vote. Increased education results in higher turnout, but is less of a factor than age. To combat declining turnout, the paper recommends modernising voter reg­ istration, reforming civic education, and enhancing political engagement through targeted social media strat­ egies, early voting options and intro­ ducing youth quotas to encourage broader electoral participation.