Dr. Almut Wieland-Karimi Director FES-Washington, former director FES-Afghanistan almut@fesdc.org www.fesdc.org “Perspectives on the Future of Democracy in Afghanistan” Presentation at Georgetown University, April 5, 2006 Abstract 1. The democratization process in Afghanistan is in its infant stage and there are still numerous obstacles on the road to democracy and sustainable peace. Democratic institutions have been created and now have to start functioning. 2. In the transition from a failed to a democratic state the right timing for elections is difficult or rather presents a dilemma. While the country needs a legislative body and the international community wants visible results, basic needs of the people(food, health, education) are not met. 3. More focus has to be put on the development of the rule of law. Without a functioning judiciary, efforts in other areas will repeatedly suffer setbacks. The Afghan constitution contains contradictions and is neither truly secular nor truly Islamic. 4. There is no political development without security and economic growth. The main problems are the drug economy, corruption, ongoing militant attacks, and underdevelopment. Strengthening the Afghan ownership, accountability, and establishing better monitoring mechanisms will be crucial. 5. The International community shows comparatively high commitment to peace keeping and peace building in Afghanistan but it does not always speak with one voice, its toolbox for democracy promotion is relatively empty and its commitment is too short. Regional players enhance conflict situations.

Chronology of political developments in Afghanistan 1963-1973 1973-1979 1979-1989 1989-1992 1992-1996 1996 After September 11, 2001 December 2001 June 2002 December 2003/January 2004 March/April 2004 October 2004 September 2005 January 31 – February 1, 2006 „Decade of democracy“ April( Saur) Revolution and closer cooperation with the Soviet Union Soviet invasion of Afghanistan Communist regime, proxy war in Afghanistan, Western support of the Mudjaheddin Communist puppet regime Civil war between different Mudjaheddin- parties Islamic extremists Taliban come into power Military defeat of the Taliban by USforces in cooperation with the Afghan Northern Alliance Petersberg Peace Agreement for Afghanistan; sets schedule for next steps towards democracy 1. Loya Jirga(Grand Assembly) appoints transition government International Afghanistan Conference in Bonn(Petersberg) 2. Constitutional Loya Jirga assembly International Afghanistan Conference in Berlin 3a. Presidential elections Hamid Karzai is elected president in the first round of elections 3b. Parliamentary and Provincial Council elections London Conference on Afghanistan 2

The Afghanistan Compact (The London Conference on Afghanistan, January 31 – February 1, 2006) 51 participating countries set the benchmarks for the next 5 years Outcomes in three critical and interdependent areas: 1. Security • Cannot be provided by military means alone • Requires good governance, justice, rule of law, reinforced by reconstruction and development • Afghan government will consolidate peace by disbanding all illegal armed groups by end-2007 in all provinces • ISAF will expand its presence in Afghanistan, including through Provincial Reconstruction Teams(PRTs) through end-2010 • By end-2010, a nationally respected, professional, ethnically balanced Afghan National Army will be established 2. Governance, Rule of Law, Human Rights • The government will give priority to the coordinated establishment of functional institutions in all provinces: civil administration, police, prisons, judiciary, etc. • Reforming the justice system will be a priority for the government • A clear and transparent national appointments mechanism will be established for all senior level appointments(government, judiciary, governors, chiefs of police) • The UN Convention against Corruption will be ratified by end-2006 • The Action Plan on Peace, Justice and Reconciliation will be implemented by end-2008 3. Economic and Social Development • The Afghan government will promote the role and potential of the private sector, curb the narcotics industry, ensure macroeconomic stability, and restore the country’s human, social, and physical capital • Public investments will be structured around six sectors: infrastructure and natural resources; education; health; agriculture and rural development; social protection; and economic governance and private sector development Additional agreements: Improving the effectiveness of aid to Afghanistan • The government will provide a detailed Afghanistan National Development Strategy(ANDS) with indicators for monitoring results, including Afghanistan’s MDGs • The government will agree with donors, international financial institutions and the UN on the benchmarks for aid channeled through the government’s core budget • The Afghan government and the international community are establishing a Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board for the implementation of this compact 3

Map of the region 4