JERUSALEM IN THE FUTURE The Friedrich Ebert Stiftung The International Peace and Cooperation Center The Floersheimer Institute for Policy Studies Scenarios and a Shared Vision Jerusalem, December 2005

2 Jerusalem in the Future

The International Peace and Cooperation Center and the Floersheimer Institute for Policy Studies wish to express their gratitude to the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung(FES) for their continued support for this project, and to Mr. Dirk Jung for his insightful training and facilitation. 33 Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure

4 Jerusalem in the Future

PREFACE W hat will Jerusalem be like in the future? What will happen to the city if Palestinians and Israelis reach an be"taken-on" first, serving as the catalyst for the resolution of the entire conflict. Uniquely among the many plans and agreement? What will happen if they proposals for Jerusalem's future, we do not? What are the costs and benefits do not focus on end game situations. of these situations and how will they Rather, we focus on the dynamics that impact on the overall conflict? How may lead to these situations and on will they affect daily life in the city? To answer these questions, and many more, a multi-disciplinary team of Palestinian and Israeli Jerusalemites met over a period of two years to develop a set of scenarios and a shared vision for the future of Jerusalem. the possibilities for movement from one scenario to another. These scenarios and vision do not represent"absolute truths." We have not even reached complete agreement among ourselves about the desirability of some of the scenarios or the definition of"what is best." Yet we have As a group, we are neither negotiators been able to reach a consensus nor politicians, and we therefore are regarding the factors which will affect more flexible and open to consider and the city and how they might influence evaluate different possible developments, the dynamics of the city. be they positive or negative. Through our work on this project, we have developed ways to work together, taking We cannot predict the future, but we can point to the possibilities and pitfalls along the way towards a better future. into account the political, economic, We cannot determine all of the factors urban, cultural and psycho-social that will shape our lives, but we can, constraints and opportunities that we and must, determine most of them. face. This document is a summary of our two Previous attempts at agreements, such as the various stages of the Oslo Accords, left the resolution of the years work. It includes: a series of scenarios regarding possible futures; Jerusalem question till the end. From a vision of a desired future; and the very beginning we have argued a preliminary strategic framework that Jerusalem can, and perhaps must, towards the realization of the vision. 55 Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure

INTRODUCTION S ince the beginning of the twentieth century, Jerusalem has been one of the central issues in the ArabIsraeli conflict. Enormous attention has and women from different professional, religious and political backgrounds. As a working group, we ourselves demonstrate that Jerusalem can serve as been devoted to the future of the city: a positive model and that the resolution More than one hundred known of the conflict in Jerusalem can have a geopolitical solutions have been positive effect on the resolution of the proposed and put forward by various conflict throughout the region. local and international groups. We began our cooperation under the Almost all of the proposals have focused most inauspicious conditions, as the on formal principles and general second Intifada raged and a general frameworks, attending to three aspects sense of hopelessness pervaded Israelis of the conflict in Jerusalem: sovereignty; and Palestinians. As we convened, management and control over the holy almost all official and Track II contact places; and municipal administration between Israelis and Palestinians had and jurisdiction. In contrast to these broken down. proposals, we have focused on possible Yet we were all committed to changing future developments(the scenarios, both the future — for our own selves and negative and positive) and a desired families, as well as for our respective future(the vision.) collectives. This goal has demanded that We are convinced that in order to achieve we distinguish between our hopes, a viable resolution to the conflict in visions and political preferences and Jerusalem, it is necessary to show the more objective assessments of the link between the overall national conflict current situation. and the question of Jerusalem. By Because we are committed to a pragmatic demonstrating the viability of a solution approach, we do not allow ourselves to in Jerusalem, we can encourage the two lose sight of the respective collectivities, parties to relate to both the city and the Israeli and Palestinian, to which we belong overall conflict more positively and more and our"own side's" political, economic creatively. By examining possible futures and psycho-social needs. Significantly, in detail, we can understand the present there were political and ideological better. By understanding the possible agreements and disagreements within future outcomes of current policies, we each group, as well as between the Israelis can assess their implications and adjust and the Palestinians. We were able to and adapt these policies accordingly. create a common language, but not The Jerusalem scenarios and vision without moments of anger and 6 working group is heterogeneous, disappointment-with each other, with our composed of Palestinian and Israeli men own sides, each of us with him/her self. Jerusalem in the Future

WHAT IS A SCENARIO? S cenario-building applies systematic thinking and planning procedures to complex, dynamic and seeminglyunpredictable realities by examining the interrelationships between the factors that influence those realities. A scenario is not a blue-print or a prediction. Although it is based on probability and plausibility. The scenarios we have produced do not forecast what will happen; rather, they offer well-developed ideas about what might or could happen. Because scenarios show that the future may, at least in part, be shaped by actions and decisions taken by leaders and the public, they help to identify what has to be done to secure a desired outcome and avoid an undesirable one. Scenarios can thus serve as important guides to strategic policy planning: On one hand, they can tell us what has to be done in order to avoid potential threats; on the other, they can show how to maximize potential opportunities. HOW DID WE BUILD THE SCENARIOS? S cenario-building is a sophisticated process that demands that the participants ask many"what if" questions and come up with convincing answers that can stand the test of logic. While not necessarily agreeing on which scenario might actually happen, or even which is desirable, the participants do have to agree on the nature of the current situation and the factors, whether certain or uncertain, that may affect it. The structure of the process encourages complex, multi-dimensional thinking. Although rigorous, the process is iterative, participatory, open and informal and does not depend on a rigid planning instrument. The process is logical yet also allows for emotions and attends to values and positions. It simultaneously encourages consensus and stimulates creative thinking. Scenario-building Methodology Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure The scenario methodology follows a series of sequential steps: 1. Articulation of the search question , Based on knowledge and experience, so as to isolate the section of a the system landscape points to the complex reality which the scenarios multiplicity of factors likely to will address. The Jerusalem Scenarios influence the future of Jerusalem. and Vision Team articulated the 3. Identification of key factors , distilled question:" What factors influence the from the system landscape. Key future of Jerusalem and its people?" factors reflect possible constraints 2. Creation of the system landscape . and threats. They may also support 77

and stabilize positive trends that could become influential in shaping the future of Jerusalem(even if they are dormant at this time.) 3. The Fortress City: The intermediate casescenario; 4. Scorched Earth : The worst-case scenario. 4. Definition of factors, with a description of the specific characteristic of each factor and a possible range of The Scenario Process variations. The process of defining the factors was complicated, reflecting the different perspectives of the two Brainstorming Search Question: What factors influence the future of Jerusalem and its people? Brainstorming groups. At the same time, these discussions involved an intense process of mutual learning. 5. Creation of an influence matrix , which provides an estimation of the mutual passive and active inter-influences of the factors. This influence matrix Research Multidimensional thinking: System Landscape, Key Factors Research captures the current reality and forms the"departure point" for the scenarios. 6. Articulation of the driving forces , based on the influence matrix and selection of the key factors. The groups chose the following driving forces: Consultation Consultation Strength of Governments Influence Matrix Occupation Role of Civil Society International Intervention. 7. Definition of the possible range of variation for each force, from current reality("status quo") to positive and negative changes. 8. Generation of scenarios for the future. Occupation Driving Forces Strength of Governments International Intervention Role of Civil Society Jerusalem in the Future Based on the variation of the four driving forces, our group generated four scenarios: 1. The Besieged City: The scenario based on a perpetuation of the status quo; The Besieged City The City of Bridges The Fortress City Scorched Earth 8 2. The City of Bridges: The best-case scenario;

Scenario 1 The Besieged City: A Scenario Predicated on the Perpetuation of the Status Quo: Strength of Governments: The Palestinian Authority is weak and the Israeli government is strong but lacks a future perspective for a final status agreement. Both governments focus almost exclusively on internal issues. Occupation: Israeli occupation continues. Palestinians in the city continue to live between the Israeli and Palestinian systems while belonging to neither. Role of Civil Society: Civil society is collapsing due to the flight of the elite and middle classes both out of East and West Jerusalem. International Intervention: The international community continues to support the Palestinian Authority, avoiding significant support for Jerusalem. The Beseiged City Jerusalem is an ongoing source of hostility Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure Strong Israeli government Civil society Occupation continues Weak Palestinian government The international community avoids intervention Active but ineffective Civil society Severe economic and social deterioration Israel engaged in unilateral actions 9 9 exclusively serving Israeli interests

The scenario narrative: The issue of relevant partnership for peace is still an obstacle for direct negotiations between the two sides. Israel is engaged in unilateral action meant to serve solely Israeli interests. Jerusalem in the Future The Palestinian Authority is unable to maintain security or disarm the militant armed groups. The Israeli government is unable or unwilling to influence public opinion regarding compromise in Jerusalem and is uninterested in placing the question of Jerusalem on the negotiating table. Occupation continues. Israeli forces fail to redeploy from the West Bank or even to move back to the presecond Intifada, September 2000 lines. This weakens the Palestinian Authority government even further. As a result, the Palestinian Authority is unable to enforce its leadership on the national level. Guerillas and militias continue to control the neighborhoods and streets. Jerusalem is an ongoing source of hostility and conflict escalation. Due to the construction of the wall, the Palestinians in the city are financially and socially overburdened. East Jerusalem is losing its centrality and urban continuity with the West Bank, as East-Jerusalemites are caught between two systems(Palestinian and Israeli) under one dominant Israeli system. This creates severe social, economic and political pressure, 10 which affects every aspect of everyday life for the Palestinians. In both parts of the city, urban, economic and political deterioration leads to the emigration of the elite and the middle class. Civil society is active but ineffective. Some Track II, Women's and other NGO's do meet regularly; they are able to reduce mutual negative stereotypes between elites but are unable to influence the general public. Due to the deadlock, the international community avoids any significant intervention in the city, viewing its main role as preservation and protection of the Palestinian community in three ways: 1. Strong warnings to Israel against any act that might threaten possible solution(e.g., Israeli confiscation of lands in East Jerusalem and expansion to the east by building in the E1* area); 2. Support for Palestinian NGO's and institutions; 3. Encouragement of Palestinian and Israeli civil society-based organizations engaged in Track II diplomacy and positive encounters. * E1: Expansion of Ma’aleh Adumim settlement to the west.

Scenario 2 The City of Bridges: The Best-Case Scenario Strength of Governments: The two strong governments are able to reach final status agreement and control the peace spoilers. Occupation: The final status agreement brings an end to the Israeli occupation and defines two distinct capitals in Jerusalem for the two states. Role of Civil Society: NGO's engage in cross-border cooperation in the fields of economic development, service provision, planning, conservation and preservation of the Old City. International Intervention: The international community facilitates the implementation of the agreement and assists in developing Jerusalem as a world center. The City of Bridges Two strong governments Capital of Israel Jerusalem as two capitals Civil society International community facilitates implementation of agreement Inter-community exchange Empowered city and prosperous capital centers World capital Capital of Palestine Civil society Cross-border cooperation 1111 Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure

The scenario narrative: Both parties recognize Jerusalem as the key issue and the source of political legitimacy. It is clear to both parties that without a resolution to the issue of Jerusalem, they will not be able to resolve the overall conflict. Jerusalem in the Future As a result, both the Palestinian and the Israeli governments reach a final status agreement. They are strong enough and politically secure enough to do so. However, in resolving the conflict, Israelis and Palestinians approach the issue from different perspectives: While the Israelis seek to avoid bi-nationalization of Jerusalem, the Palestinians want to fulfill their national aspirations in the city. The final status agreement marks a change in the relationships between the two national groups: There are two states, each with its own capital in Jerusalem. Domination and occupation are replaced with political separation and functional integration of the city. This reflects positively on the daily lives of Palestinians and Israelis and on the city in general. The Old City is declared a special international area, administered by the two parties with the support of the international community. Peace entrepreneurs are active, promoting inter-community exchange. Professionals articulate a code of ethics for sustainable development and grass 12 roots organizations write a code of ethics for everyday life in the city. These codes spell out rules of conduct and behavior in historic and religious sites and the relationships between national groups. Preparation of these codes would have involved a remarkable public debate among both Israelis and Palestinians, proving that when they are called upon to deal with everyday practice, members of the two communities essentially strive for very similar things. The two municipalities coordinate their growth for their mutual benefit and prepare a joint master plan for the city. The plan relates to both sides of the border and aims to produce a more efficient system of land uses, avoid duplication of infrastructure and foster positive relations between the two national groups. It is clear that the prosperity of both sides is largely dependent on openness, international centrality and investment and cooperation across borders. Jerusalem thus becomes an open, prosperous world capital, serving as a model for cross-border cooperation between the Palestinians and Israelis for the entire region.

Scenario 3 The Fortress City: An Intermediate-Case Scenario Strength of Governments: The two governments are strong enough to control peace spoilers but are not yet able to reach a final status agreement. They manage to sign a partial agreement within the framework of the road map. Occupation: According to this partial agreement, Palestinians have functional autonomy in Jerusalem in the form of a borough with limited security and planning responsibilities. Role of Civil Society: Moderates and peace entrepreneurs proliferate and are active, but play a marginal role. International Intervention: The international community attempts to contain the situation by acting as a facilitator and supporter of peace entrepreneur activities. The Fortress City Jerusalem returns to negotiations Israeli government Strong governments but not able to reach a final status agreement The International community acts as a facilitator and supporter Palestinian government Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure Civil society Civil society has a marginal role Civil society The religious aspect of the conflict intensifies Palestinians have functional autonomy Israel annexes settlements around Jerusalem 1133

The scenario narrative: The Palestinians and Israelis are tired of the conflict, mutual destruction and violence. They reach the conclusion that there is no military solution for the conflict. Both sides implement the road map and act to ensure stabilization and trust building. They decide to return to negotiations. A partial agreement within the framework of the road map and its vision for a two-state solution is signed. Jerusalem in the Future It is clear that the Israeli government is not intimidated by violence/terrorist activity, but rather is motivated by the specter of a bi-national state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Thus, while it is still unwilling to negotiate a final status agreement, the Israeli government is willing to reach an interim agreement(not limited by a defined timetable.) The Palestinian Authority comes to the conclusion that it is impossible to reach a full peace agreement in the short or medium term. Preservation of the Palestinian national rights and prevention of further deterioration of the conflict are the primary motivations for the Palestinian Authority's decision. Based on what it views as a"demographic threat" and a desire to avoid the creation of the bi-national city, Israel agrees to ease the occupation in East Jerusalem. It grants the Palestinians living in the post-1967 boundaries of municipal Jerusalem 14 functional autonomy under a borough system, linked with a Palestinian municipality established in areas close to the municipal boundaries. Thus, although Israel continues to impose its sovereignty, it delegates limited security and planning responsibility to the Palestinian borough. Israel annexes settlements around Jerusalem and the highway road system connecting these settlements to the"Jewish City." The intensified building activity continues to be a source of tension, perceived by the Palestinians as the real obstacle to the peace process and an attempt to restrict the development of a Palestinian capital. The holy sites become a powerful motivating myth for Palestinians. Their increased sense of injustice and deprivation- exacerbated by prohibitions and restrictions on entering the city strengthens the religious aspect of the conflict. In response, wary of the role of religion and its potential to escalate the conflict, Israel eases restrictions on access

to the holy sites in turn. Confidence that the holy sites are not threatened eases existing religious tensions. Economic links with Ramallah(for East Jerusalem) and Tel Aviv(for West Jerusalem) are enhanced; as a result, some parts of the wall between Jerusalem and Ramallah have been removed. However, Ramallah and Tel Aviv continue to be attractive to the educated, the economically wellestablished and the middle class; negative migration from Jerusalem continues. Violence decreases considerably on both sides, leading to an improvement in the sense of well-being for both peoples. On both sides, fear dissipates, easing hatred and stereotypes. Yet mistrust and the negative image of the other persist, so there is minimal interaction between the two societies. In addition, both societies feel the need to focus on internal issues, following separate agendas. This allows minimum communication and dialogue between both communities, which progress in a parallel, almost unrelated, manner. The international community resorts to"soft" political intervention, facilitating the peace process by bringing both sides to negotiations and guaranteeing that the cycle of violent action-reaction does not resume. In addition, they provide donations and funding, especially to rebuild of the Palestinian Authority. Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure 1155

Scenario 4 Scorched Earth: the Worst-Case Scenario Strength of Governments: The two weak governments are unable to reach any political agreement. Occupation: Occupation continues and intensifies. Jerusalem is walled off and"soft" ethnic cleansing occurs. Role of Civil Society: Civil society is weak. Moderates and peace entrepreneurs are regarded as traitors and extremists become the leading force. International Intervention: The international community retreats. Israeli government Scorched Earth Occupation of Jerusalem continues Two weak governments The International community retreats Palestinian government Jerusalem in the Future Civil society Weak Civil society Economic situation worsens 16 Soft ethnic cleansing of Palestinians Ultra-Orthodox& ultra-nationalist groups dominate the city hall Limited access to holy sites Peace spoilers undermine moderation

The scenario narrative: Both the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority are weak, ineffectual and unable to reach a political agreement. Both sides fail to fulfill their commitments. This leads to disaffection and alienation on both sides. Unable to take decisive action, political leaders on both sides panader to extremists and allow peace spoilers to undermine the last vestiges of stability and moderation. neither side is able to limit or restrict violent extremism. As the Palestinian population grows, Israeli policy-makers, concerned that Palestinians may constitute a majority in the near future, prefer to maintain the“Jewishness” of the city, at the expense of any pretense of democracy. Israeli authorities push the Palestinians outside of Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries by deliberatey making life untenable for most of them. With overt government support, Jewish extremist settler groups engage in ethnic cleansing, taking over large blocks of housing in East Jerusalem, including the Old City, and forcibly expelling their residents. Politically and socially disenfranchised and lacking effective leadership, the Palestinians are unable to mount significant political resistance or to enlist any international intervention. There is limited access to holy sites and the national conflict is increasingly redefined in religious terms. The economic situation worsens as gaps in income distribution, physical and human infrastructure and opportunities grow even larger. Because of the violence and guerilla wars on the streets, supply chains to Jerusalem are broken and there are periodic shortages of gasoline, food stuffs, etc. Public services are provided sporadically at best. Anarchy allows criminal elements to act with impunity. Organized and unorganized crime makes life dangerous for all. The municipal council is dominated by Ultra-Orthodox and ultra-nationalist parties. The Jewish-only municipal council votes to prevent the Palestinians from participating in municipal institutions and the police issues a series of restricive regulations over Palestinian feedom of movement, access to services and employment. Peace spoilers and extremists agitate 1177 Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure

against peace entrepreneurs. The jingoistic press completely marginalizes all moderates and all moderate positions. Both Jewish and Palestinian peace and human rights activists are assassinated. The international community no longer believes in the Palestinian’s or the Israeli’s sincerity or commitment to the peace process. It ceases even to attempt to mediate the situation. Jerusalem, threatened from without and within, is abandoned. The anarchy threatens to spread to countries in the region, especially Jordan and Lebanon, with their large Palestinian populations. Revolts and armed insurgence surround the region. Jerusalem in the Future 18

THE FOUNDATION OF A SHARED VISION The scorched earth of the worst-case scenario and the bridges of the bestcase scenario provided our teams with powerful motivation to recognize that we could no longer allow the past to serve as the justification of the future. The two sides thus embarked on the development of a shared vision for Jerusalem. What is a vision? Future oriented and inherently optimistic, a vision is a coherent, emotionally appealing and convincing statement about a desired outcome- it is an articulation of the way we wish we could live here in Jerusalem. The process of envisioning enabled the project members to“break out of the box.” To create a successful vision, it is necessary to consider the fears and concerns about the future and to recognize the extent to which we have allowed these fears to cloud our thinking and obstruct progress towards peace. A vision is composed of two parts: the visible part, that we can see and feel, and the invisible part, those political, cultural and social processes which make the visible part possible. The worst-case scenario provides the negative motivation: it is what we wish to avoid. The best-case provides the positive motivation: it is what we would like to experience, feel, and be. The Vision Process Feelings(visible) Synthesis Reaching agreement Vision Mind(invisible) Analysis Agreement& disagreement Feelings Elaboration of personal and group vision(s) Images A walk through Jerusalem Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure Logics Exploration how to achieve the vision Language Discription Reality 1199

THE SHARED VISION At some point in the future, Jerusalem will be: The unique capital of two states: the State of Palestine and the State of Israel. An Open City, politically divided and physically undivided. A city in which people and goods flow freely between different sectors and the surrounding areas environs. A city of peaceful coexistense. A Viable Complex City with a high quality of life. A city of diversity and equality. Empowered as a world city and a universal center of peace and conflict resolution: part of the global network of world cities. Jerusalem will combine the strengths of its cultural and religious heritage with tourism, financial services and information technology. Jerusalem in the Future The Vision narrative: The vision is based on the premise that Jerusalem will become two capitals for two states, each with its own strong governments. Each nation will maintain its own national and municipal compounds in the city. We affirm that both the Palestinians and the Israelis have the right to selfdetermination and separate states; at the same time, we reaffirm our commitment to the economic and physical intergration of the city. This vision is predicated, among other factors, on a common understanding 20 that Jerusalem has the potential to serve as a world city and that, uniquely among the cities of the world, its essence has to do with holiness, respect, openness and tolerance between members of the three religious communities. While the two sovereignties, with their two capitals, maintain clear and defined borders within the city, Jerusalem remains open and non-militarized. Goods and people move safely and freely across the transparent borders that politically separate and functionally integrate the two cities, guaranteeing economic sustainability. The vision attends to issues of

economic growth: religious life and the Holy Places; culture; public services; education for peace; the media; higher education; and the concept of“home” for each of us, as individuals and as collectives. We have paid particular attention to education. In our vision, both societies invest in their educational systems, recognizing that education is the key to creating peaceful societies. Each side takes responsibility for nurturing a culture of peace at home and towards the other side. Schools emphasize freedom, democracy and social liberties provide the best guarantees that this peaceful situation will flourish. Resolution of the conflict between us is the impetus for the resolution of many of the domestic difficulties. Both sides prosper. Jerusalem is central for both societies and is even able to help other nations still engaged in conflict. Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure 2211

The Next Steps BUILDING A STRATEGY The best-case scenario and the shared vision are both predicated on simultaneous processes of integration and separation. The reasons for this are not difficult to see: As Jerusalemites, we have a collective, shared, integrated identity. As Israelis and Palestinians, we have very separate identities and heritages. As states living together in the region, there is much that we must face together. As nations in transition, there is much that we cannot do togeter. To fulfill these two processes simultaneously, there are challenges that Israelis and Palestinians must act upon together and others that each nation must face alone. We can illustrate this process graphically with several examples. Cooperation/Integration Separation Must do alone: * Develop tolerant education * Promote peace media * Decrease poverty and social exclusion * Maintain a strong civil society * Act against extremist and violent groups * Establish legal, criminal justice and education systems * Establish strong municipalities Must do together: * Sponsor professional exchanges * Manage the environment * Provide institutional support for dialogue * Encourage cooperation between religious groups * Mutually respected border management system Jerusalem in the Future Relying on this preliminary strategic framework, the Palestinian and Israeli teams will proceed to the next stage and develop a set of strategies to advance from the current situation and the 22 possible scenarios to the desired vision. We hope that the scenarios and the shared vision outlined here will generate public debate regarding the future of the city and contribute towards a common understanding between the conflicting parties.

THE PARTICIPANTS: The Palestinian Team Rami Nasrallah, Co-Chair Amin Amin Rana Abu Ghazaleh(until June, 2005) Amer Hidmi Rassem Khamaisi Shahd Waari The Israeli Team Shlomo Hasson, Co-Chair Riki Fishel Ya’akov Garb Nimrod Goren Yifat Maoz Eetta Prince-Gibson Trainer for the Scenarios and Vision Project: Dirk Jung, denkmodell-Berlin, Germany The Scenarios and Vision Project was supported and coordinated by: Michèle Auga, Resident Representative, FES, Jerusalem Hermann Bünz, Resident Representative, FES, Herzliya Elizabeth Petersen, Program Manager, FES, Jerusalem 2233 Je J r e u r s us al al e e m m I i n n t T he he Fu F t u u t re ure