OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 The Inter-Congolese Dialogue: Negotiations for a Democratic State or the Formalisation of a New Scramble? Sagaren Naidoo June 2002

Published by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung South Africa Office 34 Bompas Road, Dunkeld West Johannesburg, South Africa P O Box 412664, Craighall 2024 South Africa Tel 27 11 447-2232 Fax 27 11 788-5840 Fessa@fessa.co.za www.fes.org.za © Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. All rights reserved. The material in this publication may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior permission of the copyright holder. Short extracts may be quoted, provided the source is fully acknowledged. First published in June 2002 ISBN 1-919706-24-0 The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, or the organisation which the author represents. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Sagaren Naidoo is a researcher at the Institute for Global Dialogue, Johannesburg.

CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 3 2. THE RISE AND FALL OF LAURENT KABILA: COMPLICATIONS FOR THE ICD 4 3. THE ICD REVIVAL: OVERCOMING THE OBSTACLES 7 4. WHO SHOULD BE REPRESENTED? 9 4.1 The Political Non-Armed Opposition 9 4.2 RCD-ML 10 4.3 The Mai-Mai 10 5. THE SUN CITY TALKS: FITS AND STARTS 11 6. THE PACMT 15 6.1 Provisions of the PACMT 15 6.2 The International Response 16 6.3 The Regional Reaction 17 6.4 The Domestic Reply 17 3

7. REASONS FOR THE ICD’S FRACTIOUS OUTCOME 18 8. POSSIBLE OUTCOMES 19 8.1 Consolidation and Implementation of the PACMT without the ASD 19 8.2 The Consolidation and Implementation of the PACMT with the ASD 20 8.3 A Dissolution of the PACMT 20 9. RECOMMENDATIONS 21 10. CONCLUSION 22 11. REFERENCES 24 12. ACRONYMS 25 APPENDIX 1 27 APPENDIX 2 28

1. INTRODUCTION The Inter-Congolese Dialogue(ICD) – political negotiations begun at Sun City, South Africa, on 25 February 2002 – had a dual purpose. Firstly, as a provision of the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement(LA), 1 the ICD was expected to produce a negotiated settlement to end the war that had broken out in the Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC) in August 1998. Secondly, the negotiations were expected to revive and consolidate a democratisation process that had been thwarted initially by Mobutu Seso Seko’s one-party Zaire, and thereafter by the Laurent Kabila’s tenure as president of the DRC. In order to achieve a political resolution to the anti-Laurent Kabila war, the ICD was expected to deliver an all-inclusive transitional government that would oversee the formation of a new republican army, set a timeframe for democratic elections, implement an economic reconstruction and development plan, and agree on a national reconciliation programme. By implication, therefore, a political settlement to‘Africa’s World War I’ 2 was also expected to usher in a democratic state. After 52 days at Sun City, delegates reached agreement on:(a) the integration of the opposing armed forces;(b) the economic reconstruction of the country;(c) national reconciliation; and(d) a humanitarian assistance programme. An agreement on an all-inclusive transitional government, however, remained elusive, much to the detriment of the agreements reached. Instead an accord outside the framework of the ICD, the Political Agreement on Consensual Management of the Transition in the DRC(PACMT), united the Joseph Kabila government and the Congolese Liberation Movement(MLC) of Jean-Pierre Bemba in a power-sharing deal that basically consolidated their control of the transitional authority. The PACMT retained Joseph Kabila as national president for the 30-month transitional period and created the post of prime minister, a position that was awarded to Bemba. The presidency of the national assembly – a position that was subordinate to those of the national president and prime minister – was offered to the RCD-Goma rebels. With the backing of the relatively powerful Rwandan army, this major rebel group had initiated the anti-Laurent Kabila war. They claimed to control over a third of the country, and since the rebels firmly believe that they were a formidable force in the central African labyrinth they rejected the PACMT, as expected. The RCD-Goma opted instead to pursue a continuation of the ICD in the hope of securing a greater position in the transi1 The Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement was signed in the Zambian capital by the warring parties to the DRC conflict in July 1999. The two factions of the main rebel group, the Rally for Congolese Democracy(RCD) – the RCD-Goma and the RCD-Kisangani/ML – signed the Ceasefire Agreement a month later. 2 Former US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, described the DRC conflict in this way during her address to the Security Council meeting on the DRC on 24 January 2000. The ICD reached agreement on a number of issues, but an all-inclusive transitional government remained elusive.

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 It would be virtually impossible to democratise a partitioned DRC. tional government. A concern arose that if the signatories of the PACMT failed to participate in a new round of dialogue to negotiate the inclusion of non-signatory parties, and in particular the RCD-Goma rebels, the country could remain de facto partitioned. Such an outcome would not only threaten the progress made at Sun City, but would also jeopardise the implementation of a democratisation process. Any attempts at democratisation in a de facto partitioned DRC, could only be carried out within the territory controlled by the transitional government. Since none of the belligerents could rightfully claim to have majority popular representation – which they were unlikely to achieve even with free and fair elections – a de facto partitioned DRC would have concretised the control of DRC territory by warring forces and their expropriation of the country’s rich natural resources. Such an ICD outcome would have formalised the postMobutu scramble for the Congo. Worse was the reality of a protracted conflict. 2. THE RISE AND FALL OF LAURENT KABILA: COMPLICATIONS FOR THE ICD 3 Mobutu Seso Seko’s kleptocratic reign of what he named Zaire was finally rejected by neighbouring states and by western countries, in particular the United States(US), in the mid-1990s. Although western mining companies had almost unimpeded access to the DRC’s riches, Mobutu’s nationalisation and mismanagement of the mines made the business climate increasingly unpredictable. This was worrisome for American multinational companies, especially after Mobutu began fostering closer relations with France. For neighbouring governments, Mobutu’s support for rebel movements and permission to defeated military groups to establish bases in the DRC from which to launch attacks justified their military backing for his removal(Naidoo, 2000). Hence, Laurent Desiré Kabila became president of the DRC through an externally contrived plan that backed regional states in order to replace a devalued Mobutu. The Laurent Kabila regime was expected to be amenable to the economic, political and security interests of western governments and regional states. This agenda involved making the country’s enormous mineral riches available for exploitation mainly by Belgian, Canadian and US-based mining conglomerates, while at the same time allowing Rwanda and Uganda to take charge in Kinshasa. Once at the helm of the impoverished state, however, Laurent Kabila attempted to shrug off the terms and conditions of his installation. His death knell sounded when he reneged on deals made with those who had installed him in power. When Laurent Kabila cancelled the mining concessions of 3 This section draws extensively from S. Naidoo(2001), What Price Peace in the DRC?, Global Dialogue, 6(2). 6 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE American Mineral Fields Inc.(AMFI) and Barrick Gold Corporation, which were awarded even before he had assumed the presidency of the DRC, he committed an unacceptable offence. However, it was the purging of the Rwandanese and Ugandans in his government and military that initiated Africa’s most complex war. After their expulsion for planning to take control of the DRC and for the assassination attempt on Laurent Kabila in July 1998, these former allies began a military campaign using rebel movements to oust the DRC president. This was the essence of the conflict for which the ICD was expected to provide a negotiated political resolution. Although the war that broke-out in the DRC in August 1998 was directed at Laurent Kabila’s removal, his assassination on 16 January 2001 was, ironically, carried out by his inner circle. The intransigence and erratic behaviour that eventually turned his friends against him was rooted in his 1960s pseudorevolutionary style of governing. The swift monarchical-style appointment of 29-year-old Joseph Kabila as the DRC’s new president was not without controversy and protest. His assumption of power roused widespread concerns about his political maturity and his capacity to address the challenges he faced as head of a fragmented state which was embroiled in a complex war. The economic realism that informs international relations in a post-Cold War era was never understood by Laurent Kabila. Unlike the Angolan government that deals with its former enemy, the US, over its oil resources, Laurent Kabila failed to grasp the economic prudence that underpinned the need for a constructive, albeit cautious, engagement with the external forces that had contributed to Congo’s woes. In the aftermath of Laurent Kabila’s death, Joseph Kabila and his new government undertook a radical restructuring of relations with various international economic actors. Unlike his father’s erratic blockage of western mining conglomerates under the guise of putting a halt to imperialism, Joseph Kabila’s first step was to renew Kinshasa’s economic relationship with heavyweight multinationals that were set on obtaining the country’s mineral wealth. It is no coincidence that Joseph Kabila gained international acceptance only after he made the necessary assurances to the Corporate Council for Africa, the World Bank and the US oil cartel on his trip to Washington just a week after his father was gunned down. Needless to say, Joseph Kabila promised these foreign constituencies free and fair elections, and more importantly a liberalised economy and a new investment code to improve the climate for foreign business. It came as no surprise, therefore, when AMFI announced in late April 2001 that the new DRC government had approved its US$300 million deal for the Kolwezi copper-cobalt tailings project, potentially the largest direct investment in post-Mobutu Congo. Moves to terminate the monopoly on diamond exports enjoyed by the Israel Diamond Institute(IDI) were welcomed by other diamond traders. Jospeh Kabila’s government had also drawn up a mining and investment code that liberalised the foreign exchange regime and introduced a more transparent and predictable licensing system aimed at standardising the process for project approvals; this replaced the rather ad hoc case-by-case reviews The war that began in August 1998 was directed at removing Laurent Kabila from power. JUNE 2002 7

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 Laurent Kabila’s autocratic rule legitimised the creation of rebel movements. His death could not nullify their existence. administered by Laurent Kabila. Moreover, it was a great relief for companies to learn that they no longer required presidential approval for mining titles, a responsibility that had been transferred to the mining minister. Joseph Kabila’s economic reforms did not end there. His legalisation of the US dollar and the devaluation of the country’s over-valued franc surely pleased mining companies and traders that were eager to resume their business in the Congo. As a reward for the new DRC government’s economic turnaround, western governments were expected to urge their allies, Rwanda and Uganda, to withdraw from the occupied zones. This was, however, conditional on Joseph Kabila’s termination of support for the Rwandan genocidaires operating from eastern Congo. A change of heart toward Rwanda and Uganda was certainly felt when the United Nations released a report charging them with large-scale looting of the DRC’s mineral and forest resources. Lobbyists like US-based Cohen and Woods International(CWI) have been at the forefront of this reconfiguration of policy by western governments toward the Kinshasa authorities. CWI was employed by Laurent Kabila to repair Congo’s image in the US. The plan proved unsuccessful because Kabila Senior refused to open up the economy, renew mining contracts and co-operate with international economic actors. CWI may have convinced the Bush administration that with the‘right’ (Joseph Kabila) leadership now in Kinshasa the US could look forward to predictable relations with the DRC government, thereby reducing their reliance on the rebels to further their interests in the Congo.‘Since the death of the elder Kabila, the ICD lost much of its attraction for the international community, which strongly supports the son and wishes to push him to resume the democratisation process, negotiating directly with Rwanda and Uganda, rather than with the rebels’(Naidoo, 2000:I). Subsequently,‘none of the foreign powers offered any firm political backing for the ICD’(Naidoo, 2000:2). Since‘the real aim of the ICD was to weaken Laurent Kabila and boost the political legitimacy of rebel movements’(ICG, 2001), the negotiations became complicated by Kabila’s assassination and the subsequent political and economic reformation of the successor government of his son Joseph. Indeed, Laurent Kabila’s autocratic rule legitimised the existence of the rebel movements. However, he was killed and replaced by a more internationally acceptable government only after the rebels’ legitimacy had been established. As a result, the external interests that underlined the creation of the rebellion against Laurent Kabila could not nullify the existence of the rebels, even after such interests were fulfilled by the new DRC government. Consequently, the rebels retained their recognition as legitimate opposition forces having equal status with other components of the ICD. 8 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE 3. THE ICD REVIVAL: OVERCOMING THE OBSTACLES Instituting the desired economic co-operation with the international players did not, however, exempt Joseph Kabila’s government from the political transition that it was required to undertake. At the forefront of the political reform programme stood the need to co-operate with the facilitation for ICD. Although none of the parties to the conflict had any real interest in the ICD, all the signatories to the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement had agreed to do their utmost to facilitate the inter-Congolese political negotiations that would lead to a new dispensation in the DRC. 4 However, shortly after the facilitation team of former Botswana President Ketumile Masire 5 commenced preparations for the ICD, Laurent Kabila began obstructing the process. Since the facilitation team’s DRC base was in Kinshasa, Laurent Kabila easily prevented them from flying to rebel controlled territory to supervise the selection of delegates. He claimed that such movement by the facilitation team would aid the rebels. Furthermore, Masire was declared persona non grata by Laurent Kabila after he stated that he would proceed with the preparations for the ICD even without the Kinshasa government.‘Kabila had been running a campaign from January 2000 to denigrate the former Botswana President, exploiting every opportunity to avoid a dialogue that he considered too threatening to his power(ICG, 2001:3). Mounting tensions between Laurent Kabila and Masire finally climaxed with the closure of the facilitator’s Kinshasa office, which effectively brought the preparations for the ICD to a halt. Although the raison d’être for the anti-Laurent Kabila war waned considerably in the aftermath of his assassination, by then the DRC was trisected by opposing forces. As a result, the incumbent government of Joseph Kabila was compelled to adhere to the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement and to participate in the ICD. Joseph Kabila took steps to change the position toward the ICD. The new government he appointed did not include hard-liners such as Interior Minister Gaetan Kakudji and Education Minister Abdoulaye Yerodia Ndombasi, who were likely to hamper the ICD mission. After a meeting between Joseph Kabila and Ketumile Masire in Syrte, Libya, in March 2001, Masire returned to Kinshasa to reopen the facilitation office. Masire’s first priority was to put an end to his much-criticised lack of knowledge about the DRC that was compounded by the absence of French speakers on his team. He appointed the Mauritanian ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs, Professor Mohamed Hacen Ould Lebatt, as head of the Kinshasa office. Masire then‘made a second goodwill gesture by announcing that he would be calling a meeting of the“pre-dialogue” committee aimed at drafting an agenda, drawing up a list of participants, and establishing rules and regulations, all on a 4 See Chapter 5 of Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement. 5 The former Botswana President was appointed the facilitator of the ICD in December 1999 by the Organisation of African Unity(OAU). After his accession to power, Joseph Kabila took steps to support the preparations for the ICD. JUNE 2002 9

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 A major stumbling block during the preparations for the ICD was the question of representation of both armed and nonarmed opposition groups. consensual basis’(ICG, 2001:3). On 4 May 2001, the DRC government and armed opposition groups reached an agreement on a set of fundamental principles that reaffirmed the equal status of all signatories to the LA, the freedom to choose their own representatives for the ICD, and the principle of consensus-based decision-making. During the‘pre-dialogue’ talks in Gaborone from 20-24 August 2001, decisions were reached about the venue, date and agenda for the ICD, as well as the rules and regulations underpinning the negotiations. Addis Ababa was selected as the location for the talks, and 15 October 2001 was set as the starting date. However, by the end of the Gaborone meeting, not all the issues had been resolved. In particular, no definitive decision was reached on the composition and number of the delegations. The selection process for the non-armed opposition groups was particularly contentious. The existence of several hundred Congolese political parties and the general confusion over their legal status made selection of the non-armed opposition particularly difficult. The fifteen political parties that had been chosen, after long negotiations, to attend the Gaborone meeting decided that they adequately represented the non-armed political opposition and refused to consider the participation of other groups. 6 This unexpected hijacking of the non-armed political opposition’s representation caused an outcry among representatives of parties that had stayed behind in Kinshasa as well as members of the diaspora. In addition, the representation of civil society was not finalised, and the traditional chiefs in the National Alliance of Traditional Authorities also demanded their own quota. Nor was the question of the Mai-Mai or the representation of the different factions of the RCD-ML resolved, with decisions postponed to the follow-up committee meeting in September 2001 in Nairobi, Kenya. However, since none of the delegates in Nairobi had the authority to take decisions on such issues, they remained unresolved until the opening of the ICD in Addis Ababa. The Addis Ababa talks lasted for a mere six days before they collapsed. Disagreement over representation was rife, and the only matter parties were able to agree on was the postponement of talks to an unspecified date in South Africa. The government delegation declared that four representation issues – the Mai-Mai resistance movement, religious denominations, political parties and the RCD-ML – be resolved before they would return to the negotiation table. Bitterly criticising the method of the facilitation, the DRC government stormed out of the Ethiopian capital before the postponement was officially announced. Delegates were clearly preoccupied with putting on a show of goodwill towards the ICD for the benefit of the Congolese population and the international community. After the exit of the governmental delegation, the rebel factions and nine parties of the non-armed opposition continued to talk for a further two days in an attempt to reach agreement on the remaining questions and to find a solution to Kinshasa’s demands. 6 See Appendix 1 for a list of the fifteen political parties that participated in the Gaborone talks. 10 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE In early December 2001, the United Nations organised a meeting of LA signatories in Abuja to finalise the decisions pertaining to representation of the political non-armed opposition, the RCD-ML, the Mai-Mai, religious leaders, the diaspora, and the overall reduction of the number of total delegates to 300. The representation of the political non-armed opposition, the RCD-ML rebels, and the Mai-Mai resistance movement proved difficult to resolve and as a result clouded the initial phase of the Sun City talks. 4. WHO SHOULD BE REPRESENTED? 4.1 The Political Non-Armed Opposition Although the provisions of the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement and the Declaration of Fundamental Principles in May 2001 provided clear guidelines on the representation of the political non-armed opposition at the ICD,‘the complexity of the DRC’s political landscape rendered their application problematic. The political opposition in the Congo has been composed of an array of parties, platforms and groupings. This plurality of actors together with the lack of electoral mandates made it contentious to set the boundary between the political opposition and the wider political class’(Masire, 2001). The representation of the non-armed opposition at the ICD became a major issue of contention in the run-up to the Sun City talks. The problem arose after political groups that were initially excluded from the non-armed component demanded their inclusion. At the Abuja meeting, delegates took the decision to expand the Gaborone list of fifteen parties. However, the non-armed opposition that had participated in the Gaborone meeting believed that it was their sole right as an independent and autonomous component of the ICD to select how their numbers would be expanded. Since the Gaborone group of fifteen were unwilling to increase their composition, those left out compiled a list of twenty additional opposition parties and platforms under the supervision of Masire’s special representative in Kinshasa, Professor Mohamed Lebatt. Twelve of the fifteen original parties reacted by signing a letter to Masire on 25 January 2002 rejecting the additional list of twenty parties(see Appendix 1). They accused Prof. Lebatt of compiling the list himself and of favouring certain groups. Those rejecting the list of twenty argued that only seven of the names could be considered legitimate opposition parties. Two names in particular were repeatedly mentioned as completely unacceptable as members of the non-armed opposition component. They were Frédéric Kibasa Maliba, leader of the break-away Union for Democracy and The most contentious issue was the representation of the non-armed opposition. JUNE 2002 11

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 Social Progress(UDPS) faction that was known to be loyal to the Kinshasa government, and Vunduwawe Te Pemako who was leading the splinter Popular Movement for the Revolution(MPR) faction. The concern was based on the belief that these actors would provide the Joseph Kabila government with additional support at the ICD, and since decisions were based on consensus the Kinshasa government could very easily win its way. Some non-armed opposition parties threatened to boycott the ICD if the list of twenty names was not altered. The fragmentation and re-fragmentation of the RCD caused serious problems regarding representation. 4.2 RCD-ML At the signing of the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement, representivity of the RCD had posed a serious problem. Dual claims to RCD’s leadership by Dr. Emile Ilunga and Professor Wamba dia Wamba emanated from the division of the RCD into RCD-Goma and RCD-ML(Liberation Movement). This disagreement led to the RCD’s failure to sign the LA. After intense negotiations, parties agreed on a compromise formula which allowed all fifty founding members of the RCD to sign the Agreement a month later(IRIN, 1999). As a result, the RCD-Goma and RCD-ML were regarded as two separate movements in all the structures of the LA – that is, the Joint Military Commission, the Political Committee and the Heads of State Summit. They have also been consulted separately by the OAU, the UN Security Council and the UN Observer Mission to the DRC(MONUC). While recognising the RCD-ML’s right to participate in the ICD, none of these organs were able to produce a clear articulation on the form, mechanism and framework for the RCD-ML’s representation at the talks. The facilitator’s efforts were frustrated by the contested legal status of the RCD-ML, since they were not referred to explicitly in Chapter 5 of the LA. Complicating matters even more was the RCD-ML’s own fragmentation into various groups. By the time of the Addis Ababa meeting, the RCDML had broken into two factions – one loyal to Wamba dia Wamba, and the other led by Mbusa Nyamwisi. In addition, a third group under the leadership of Roger Lumbala was created, calling itself the RCD-Nationale(RCD-N). At the Gaborone preparatory committee meeting, Masire invited the leaders of each of the three RCD-ML factions, allocating them a total of six seats. At the Addis Ababa meeting, the facilitator increased the RCD-ML’s quota from six to nine in accordance with the agreement reached at the Abuja meeting. 4.3 The Mai–Mai The Mai-Mai undoubtedly‘represent the strongest and legitimate political force in the Kivu province, eastern DRC. They constitute the popular resistance movement in the face of foreign occupation and domination by one of its tiniest 12 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE neighbours, Rwanda’(ICG, 2001:13). Not being a signatory to the LA, however, the Mai-Mai were only considered in terms of their disarmament, as a so-called ‘negative force’. Therefore, the facilitator needed to develop a mechanism to ensure effective representation of the Mai-Mai within the context of the political negotiations rather than the disarmament process envisaged in the LA. This was also done on principal to avoid the exclusion of any parties that might contribute to a successful outcome to the ICD. However, the question of the Mai-Mai’s representation was not so easily resolved. There were twelve Mai-Mai resistance movements, split into four relatively well-defined groups. This made determining the real Mai-Mai representatives an arduous task. Moreover, the Mai-Mai insisted on having separate representation on an equal footing with other components of the Dialogue. This demand was on the grounds that they constituted a populist force separate from and opposed to other parties. Because the exclusion of the Mai-Mai could have proven a major obstacle to the whole process and have stalled the DDRRR 7 programme overseen by MONUC, Masire made the issue a priority on his agenda. After Masire had raised the issue on numerous occasions with all the Congolese parties, the Abuja meeting held on 6-8 December 2001 recommended that the Mai-Mai be represented at the dialogue by six representatives and that they should participate within the forces vives component. 5. THE SUN CITY TALKS: FITS AND STARTS After a two-year delay, the ICD finally opened on the evening of 25 February 2001 in the South African resort of Sun City. Thabo Mbeki, President of the host country, aptly stressed in his opening address that the decisions taken at the ICD were imperative to display the will and capacity to pull the African continent and its peoples out of misery, indignity, poverty and underdevelopment. In his address, Ketumile Masire urged the Congolese to agree on the establishment of democratic institutions, failing which they would be the‘architects of their own misery’(IRIN, 2002a). Of concern was the conspicuous absence from the proceedings of MLC leader Jean-Pierre Bemba. Although present in Sun City, Bemba chose to boycott the ICD opening in protest against the inclusion of the additional twenty political non-armed opposition groups. Bemba joined some political opposition parties 8 and the RCD-Goma rebels in insisting that the list of twenty did not constitute true political opposition in the DRC. Indeed, many of the parties in that group were sympathisers of the DRC government. Given that any agree7 Disarmament, demobilisation, repatriation, reintegration, and resettlement. 8 Twelve of the fifteen chosen at the Gaborone meeting, hereafter referred to as the Gaborone Group; see Appendix 1. The talks finally begin, although not without contention. JUNE 2002 13

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 Representation was finally agreed, but tensions elsewhere escalated. ments had to be based on consensus, Bemba’s position was aimed at weakening the negotiating strength of the Kinshasa government. Bemba’s alliance with the MPR-Fait Privé party also influenced his decision to stay away from the ICD. The MPR, the one-time party of Mobutu, split into the MPR-Fait Privé party led by Nzuzi Wa Mbombo, and the MPR grouping led by Mobutu’s security adviser, Vunduwawe Te Pemako. Since Bemba and the MPR-Fait Privé leadership belonged to the same ethnic group, a strategic informal alliance between the two groups was formed to prevent Te Pemako from being party to the ICD. Te Pemako’s participation at the ICD would certainly have diluted Wa Mbombo’s standing at the talks. After talks between President Mbeki and Bemba on the eve of the ICD’s opening failed to secure the participation of the rebel leader, hopes were pinned on a meeting between Kabila, Bemba and Adolphe Onusumba, leader of the RCD-Goma, to break the impasse. While a compromise revision of the list of the additional twenty political parties was being deliberated, other problems of representation lingered. The rebels and government continued to haggle over sixteen places allocated to the various RCD-ML factions and the six places awarded to the Mai-Mai resistance movement. On 6 March 2002 delegates reached an agreement to expel two delegates, Frédéric Kibasa Maliba and Vunduwawe Te Pemako. 9 They were challengers to the leadership of the UDPS and MPR respectively, and as such were regarded by most Congolese political actors as allies rather than opponents of the DRC government. Maliba and Vunduawe were part of a contested list of twenty delegates who were to be added to the delegation representing the non-armed opposition parties at the ICD. In a compromise move, the other eighteen delegates were approved, bringing to sixty-eight the number of delegates representing the non-armed opposition. As a counter-measure, it was agreed that the government delegation and the two main rebel movements – MLC and RCDGoma – would also be represented by sixty-eight delegates each. During this time tensions between the Kabila government and the RCDGoma rebels were escalating steadily. The Kinshasa government claimed that the rebels had captured the Lake Tanganyika port town of Moliro, 10 in clear violation of the ceasefire that prevailed in the DRC in the run-up to the ICD. On 28 February, the DRC government had declared a unilateral ceasefire around the town after fighting there threatened to derail the ICD. In mid-March 2002, the DRC government suspended participation in the ICD after accusing Rwanda and the RCD-Goma rebels of attacking Moliro for the second time during the ICD. After the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution on 19 9 See the discussion above on the political unarmed opposition in the section entitled ‘The ICD Revival’, page 6 and following. 10 Moliro in eastern DRC is one of the few ports on Lake Tanganyika controlled by the DRC government. Rwanda and Burundi have both accused the Kinshasa government of using the port to supply rebel groups fighting against their governments. 14 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE March 2002 demanding the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of RCDGoma rebels from Moliro, the DRC government agreed to resume its participation in the ICD. The Security Council also demanded that the RCD-Goma withdraw from Pweto, which it occupied in contravention of the Kampala and Harare disengagement plan, signed a year earlier to permit the demilitarisation of that location. Four days before ICD was scheduled to close, two main issues – the position of DRC President Joseph Kabila, and the formation of a national army – blocked a concrete outcome to the talks. The RCD-Goma and MLC rebel movements demanded that a new transitional leader be chosen at the ICD and that a new national army be created. This contrasted with the DRC government’s position, which insisted that Joseph Kabila stay on as the transitional president and that the rebel movements be absorbed into the existing government army. In a last-minute effort to salvage the ICD, South African President Thabo Mbeki put forward a new proposal on a transitional government for the DRC. President Mbeki proposed that Joseph Kabila continue as the transitional president until national elections could be held, and that a Council of State and a Cabinet of National Reconciliation be appended to the presidency as executive authorities. Members of the Council of State would include the president, the leaders of the RCD-Goma and MLC rebels, and a prime minister who would be chosen by consensus at the ICD from members of the non-armed opposition. The Cabinet of National Reconciliation would be headed by the prime minister. Mbeki’s proposal recommended that the legislative authority of the DRC should be vested in a unicameral parliament of up to 500 members, selected on an equal basis from the five components of the ICD. The leader of parliament would be selected from the civil society delegates. However, the retention of Joseph Kabila as transitional president was the basis of the rejection of Mbeki’s initial proposal by RCD-Goma and MLC rebels. Mbeki reworked his blueprint for a transitional authority. The new proposal allocated national responsibility for defence, security, finance, the economy and the holding of elections to the rebel leaders. As this reduced the powers envisaged for Kabila, the rebels cautiously welcomed the second proposal. The RCDGoma representatives argued that‘it was not a question of deciding whether the president will be associated in the management of the transition before elections, but what powers he was given’(IRIN, 2002b). Clearly the RCD-Goma rebels were not willing to take orders from Joseph Kabila within a transitional authority. Moreover, the reservations of RCD-Goma rebels about President Mbeki's Council of State idea was based on the real leadership of these Rwandan-backed rebels. This leadership included officials like Azarias Ruberwa and Bizima Karaha, ethnic Tutsis who had not been able to present themselves as the real leaders of the rebels because they were not Congolese. The question was whether their figurehead leader, Adolphe Onusumba, or they themselves should be in the Council of State. Rwanda was worried that Onusumba might prove unreliable, whereas Ruberwa and Karaha, as members Near the end of the dialogue period, the RCD-Goma rebels continued to jockey for a position of power. JUNE 2002 15

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 Although Kabila and Bemba had signed an agreement, a number of other participants called for a continuation of the ICD. of the same tribe as the Rwandan leadership, were considered more dependable (IRIN, 2002c). Since president Mbeki’s reworked proposal curtailed Joseph Kabila’s powers, the DRC government rejected the plan. In the absence of an agreement between the main belligerents on control of a transitional body, Masire was forced to extend the talks for an additional week, hoping to produce a concrete deal. During this time, the government and rebel groups agreed to integrate their armed forces, removing one of the main stumbling blocks. The DRC government finally abandoned its insistence that rebel forces be absorbed into its army and accepted that all forces would be integrated on an equal basis. However, details regarding the size of the new national army, its command structure and commanders, and the proportion of rebels to government soldiers remained unresolved. The DRC government then produced a proposal that offered Bemba the post of prime minister and the RCD-Goma rebels the presidency of the new parliament. Since the RCD-Goma rebels wanted more powerful positions, they rejected the offer. For most of the ICD, Bemba had stood alongside the RCDGoma rebels and some of the non-armed opposition groups in opposing Kinshasa. In a sudden and dramatic turn of events, however, Bemba accepted the offer and signed the Political Agreement for the Consensual Management of the Transition in the DRC(PACMT) with his erstwhile opponent. Although concluded outside the parameters of the ICD, the PACMT basically fragmented the anti-Kabila coalition and isolated the RCD-Goma. If they chose to continue a military opposition against the Kinshasa government, they would be the only rebel group to do so. Since the PACMT also allowed for the consolidation of a large military force, the RCD-Goma rebels were wary of the consequences of a military response. Accordingly, the first reaction of RCD-Goma rebels was to demand the continuation of the ICD to secure their inclusion in the transitional government. To bolster this objective, the RCD-Goma rebels joined with some of the other non-armed opposition parties who refused to be party to the PACMT, to form the Alliance for the Safeguard of the ICD(ASD). Regarded as the only remaining political opposition in the DRC, the ASD included the Union for Democracy and Social Progress(UDPS) led by Etienne Tshisekedi, the Party of Unified Lumumbists(PALU) led by Antoine Gizenga, and the Movement of Congolese Nationalists(MNC-L) led by Francois Lumumba. Nevertheless, despite being the most formidable political parties in the DRC, they were a clear minority among the Congolese actors at the ICD. The Kabila-Bemba alliance had the upper hand. Fearful of a continuation of the conflict, the ICD facilitator and countries involved in the peace process called for a resumption of the dialogue to attain an all-inclusive agreement. At a special UN session held in New York on 17 May 2002, Masire obtain the international community’s backing to continue as facilitator. That meeting brought together representatives from the UN’s Department of Peace Keeping, donor countries, the IMF and the World Bank; it 16 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE was organised to discuss the inconclusive outcome of the ICD, the implications of the new political situation for the international and donor communities, and future prospects for peace. A week later Masire discussed the continuation of the ICD with the Organisation of African Unity. While OAU Secretary-General Amara Essy reiterated that any deal that excluded one or more parties would not bring lasting peace to the DRC, Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, Chairman of the OAU, announced plans to convene a regional summit at the end of May to try restarting the ICD. In the meantime, informal talks hosted by President Mbeki in Cape Town on 8 May 2002 were boycotted by the Kabila-Bemba alliance. This rendered the exercise futile. The ASD campaigned to mobilise outside support for the renewal of the ICD. Under President Mbeki’s revised plan, the RCD-Goma would have had greater say in the defence, security, economic and elections portfolios. However, the RCD-Goma’s intransigence may have cost them their best opportunity to achieve a significant role in the transitional government, presuming that the DRC government would eventually have accepted the plan. It was difficult, however, to imagine the RCD-Goma rebels being part of a transitional authority that took decisions against Rwanda’s occupation of the country. 6. THE PACMT 6.1 Provisions of the PACMT The Political Agreement on Consensual Management of the Transition in the DRC made provision for a national assembly, a senate, a senior army council, and courts and tribunals. In terms of this agreement, the position of the president of the senate was offered to the political non-armed opposition parties while civil society was allotted the responsibility for organising elections, setting up a truth and reconciliation commission, and establishing a human rights, ethics and anti-corruption committee. According to the PACMT, Kabila as the transitional president was charged with ensuring the national unity and territorial integrity of the DRC, representing the nation, promulgating laws, and being the supreme commander of an integrated army, which he would control through the senior army council. Kabila would also have the power to nominate and revoke ministers and senior officials, with the counter-signature of the prime minister. 11 In turn, the prime minister would be the head of government, preside over the Council of Minis11 See Article 3 of the PACMT. The PACMT made provision for a number of transitional structures and roles. JUNE 2002 17

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 ters, assume powers to appoint ministers and civil servants, and very critically share control of the army through the senior army council. Speaking at a press briefing in Uganda shortly after closure of the Sun City talks, Bemba’s reassurances that foreign firms exploiting Congo’s mineral wealth would be protected once he took on the post of prime minister signalled that he would also have significant influence over the economy. Indeed, the PACMT reunites 70 per cent of a divided DRC. Moreover, it permits a renewal of the much needed trade in goods and services between Kinshasa and the eastern parts of the country. Civilians in the eastern provinces of the DRC have been subjected to occupation by rebel movements and neighbouring armies, and were prevented access to Kinshasa. The PACMT will play a crucial role in renewing links by facilitating the free movement of Congolese throughout the country. Less than a month after the Sun City ICD talks adjourned indefinitely, air travel between Kinshasa and the north eastern towns of Beni and Bunia – known bases of the RCD-ML rebels – resumed to revive trade and facilitate the movement of people. In addition, the unification of opposing forces under the PACMT has opened the Congo River to trade and movement of people across the former front line. Despite this, the PACMT has attracted an ambivalent response from the international, regional and domestic communities. The international community reacted in a variety of ways to the signing of the PACMT. 6.2 The International Response There has been mixed reaction from the international community toward the ICD outcome. France, Belgium and Canada welcomed the PACMT and encouraged the Congolese at the ICD to make a show of unity against the Rwandan military occupation of their country. The United States and Britain, on the other hand, cautioned that an outcome that did not include all the actors would not bring peace to the DRC. The US favours the continuation of the ICD to secure the inclusion of the RCD-Goma rebels. At the same time the UN Security Council’s third mission to the Great Lakes region, which took place from 27 April to 7 May, concluded that the PACMT could facilitate the political transition of the DRC, and help to consolidate the peace process. However, the Council also wanted an agreement that was totally inclusive of all the parties to the ICD, and recommended the relaunching of negotiations between the parties to the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement. Ketumile Masire stressed that the PACMT was reached outside the framework of the ICD, and has subsequently called for a continuation of the Dialogue in a reduced form. A divided international response has, however, diminished the effect of diplomatic pressure on the respective parties to find a workable agreement. 18 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE 6.3 The Regional Reaction The DRC government’s allies, Angola and Zimbabwe, are fully supportive of the PACMT. In fact, some reports stated that Angola played a central role in drafting the agreement. Since the Ugandan government backs the MLC, the RCD-Kisangani, the RCD-ML and the RCD-Nationale – signatories to the PACMT – Kampala has also voiced its backing for the agreement. This opened the possibility of new military alliances between Kabila’s allies and Uganda. The shifting of strategic military alliances has been nowhere more prevalent than in the DRC conflict. Given the enmity that exists between Rwanda and Uganda, the latter is most likely to forge a workable alliance with Kinshasa’s allies in an effort to ward off Rwandan/RCD-Goma armed aggression. As expected, the Rwandan government rejected the PACMT, describing it as a violation of the LA and an act of defiance against the facilitator of the ICD. In line with the RCD-Goma position, the Rwandan government called for a continuation of the ICD to reach an inclusive agreement. Military alliances frequently shifted during the DRC conflict. 6.4 The Domestic Reply Although the PACMT has been viewed as being solely between the Kinshasa government and Bemba, it was in fact also signed by other parties to the conflict, namely the RCD-Kisangani, the RCD-ML, the RCD-Nationale, the MaiMai, 19 opposition parties and 45 representatives of civil society. According to research conducted by the Bureau d'Etudes, de Recherche et de Consulting International(BERCI), at least 258 of the 366 delegates at the ICD have signed the agreement(IRIN, 2002d). The BERCI research also revealed that the agreement was supported by the majority of the Congolese population. A poll which surveyed 1,011 people before the agreement was announced found that 71 per cent of respondents in Kinshasa thought a power-sharing deal between Kabila and Bemba would be‘a good thing’. In four other towns surveyed – Kananga, Matadi, Mbandaka and Bandundu – 54 per cent responded in the same fashion. Asked about a powersharing deal between Kabila, Bemba and the RCD president, Adolphe Onusumba, 68 per cent approved in Kinshasa, and 53 per cent in the other cities. However, ratings for a deal between only Kabila and Onusumba were much lower, averaging around 30 per cent, while a deal envisaging another RCD personality, Bizima Karaha, was favoured by the fewest respondents, 20 per cent. This was another indication of the resentment felt by the general Congolese population towards the RCD-Goma rebels and their implicit Rwandan leadership. JUNE 2002 19

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 There are several deep-seated reasons for the contentious nature of the ICD process and outcomes. 7. REASONS FOR THE ICD’S FRACTIOUS OUTCOME Firstly, the duration of the talks was inadequate to produce a concrete agreement to a war of such magnitude. The time available was reduced further by Bemba’s temporary boycott and the suspension of the Kabila government’s participation. As already discussed in this paper, Bemba claimed that many of the political non-armed opposition parties were mere fronts for the DRC government and refused to participate in the ICD unless the quasi-political opposition groups were removed. Several days later the DRC government suspended its participation after claiming that the RCD-Goma rebels had launched attacks on the eastern town of Moliro. As a result the ICD began in an uncertain atmosphere which made it difficult to build a coherent momentum for serious negotiations. Furthermore, this was the first time that all parties had gathered to negotiate on the issues; there had been no prior meetings of a preparatory nature. Recalling that it took South Africa four years to negotiate its settlement for a democratic government, the DRC situation(which is arguably much more complex) could be expected to require more than 45 days to produce an allinclusive transitional authority. Secondly, although the RCD-Goma rebels were diplomatically weak at the time of the talks, an ICD was preconditioned to meet their demands as actors having strength equal to their main opponent, the DRC government. Since the inception of the Joseph Kabila government, international support for Kinshasa increased in accordance with the political and economic reforms instituted by the new authorities. As a result foreign backing for the rebels was significantly reduced in favour of the new DRC government. The loss of their foreign backers reduced the rebels’ standing among their opponents at the negotiating table. Nevertheless, the rebels still demanded equal control in a transitional authority. Clearly, this was not an acceptable outcome. Thirdly, the major external interests that had motivated the RCD-Goma rebellion were not primarily concerned with Laurent Kabila’s obstruction of the democratisation process, but were responding to his erratic cancellation of western economic interests and his refusal to allow the DRC to be controlled by Rwanda and Uganda. These economic interests were subsequently accommodated by the new DRC government, reducing the significance of the RCDGoma rebels at the ICD. In other words, allowing the RCD-Goma rebels to fulfil foreign economic interests that typified a neo-colonialist conquest of the Congo has proven incompatible with the quest by most Congolese actors at the ICD to pursue the democratisation of their state and society. Needless to say, the intentions of the Joseph Kabila government and their new-found supporters in the MLC to institute a truly democratic state are highly questionable. 20 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE 8. POSSIBLE OUTCOMES 8.1 Consolidation and Implementation of the PACMT without the ASD With the Kabila government and the MLC failing to attend informal talks in Cape Town directed at resuming the ICD, it looks increasingly likely that the ASD will not be involved in the Agreement. The international backing from France, Belgium and Canada for the PACMT serves to enforce the exclusion of the ASD from a transitional government. The reaction of the RCD-Goma rebels was to threaten a military response, a stark possibility given the military backing they receive from the Rwandan Patriotic Army(RPA). They will, however, have a bigger enemy to oppose because of the unification of the DRC government army and its Zimbabwean and Angolan allies with the armed forces of the MLC, the RCD-ML, the RCD-Nationale and their Ugandan backers. The RCDGoma rebels may prudently opt to retain military control of the DRC territory presently in their hands, resulting in a de facto partitioning of the country. If this outcome becomes unacceptable to the international community, especially given the foreseeable continuation of killings of Congolese and destruction of their property, a more vigorous diplomatic endeavour will probably unfold. In fact, the killings have already begun. According to a Human Rights Watch(HRW) report, the RCD-Goma rebels have killed dozens of civilians suspected of supporting a breakaway anti-Rwandan faction of the RCD(HRW, 2002). The violence began in the early hours of 14 May, when about a hundred soldiers from within the RCD, calling themselves the RCD-Originale, briefly occupied the official radio station and called on Congolese RCD soldiers and city residents to unite and drive the Rwandans out of the country. RCD/Rwandan loyalists responded by going on a rampage in areas where residents had demonstrated support for the mutineers, killing about a dozen people, injuring many more, and pillaging houses and church offices. Local sources in Kisangani, however, reported that RCD-Goma rebels rounded up and summarily executed an estimated one hundred Congolese, at least thirty of them civilians. The brutality of the Rwandan loyalists within the RCD-Goma was exemplified by their decapitation of those killed(HRW, 2002). This incident exposed the growing resentment felt by Congolese towards the RCD/Rwandan occupation of their country. The Congolese view the situation as a Rwandan-Tutsi onslaught on their people and resources. Even Congolese nationals that joined the RCD-Goma to oppose the late Laurent Kabila have begun to sever their alliance with the rebels. During the Sun City talks and in their aftermath, the RPA and the RCD-Goma have been fighting renegade RCDGoma fighters led by a commander called Musunzu. These renegade fighters are said to oppose the RPA’s determined occupation of eastern DRC. A solution that excludes the RCDGoma rebels and their Alliance partners would have both diplomatic and military consequences. JUNE 2002 21

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 In a separate development, the RCD-Goma commander in Katanga Province, Songolo Nura, confirmed that there was a growing rift between RCDGoma officials that are loyal to Rwanda and those who want to join the Joseph Kabila government. Nura said that they had been puppets of Rwanda and were no longer willing to take orders from Kigali. These mutinies may be a strong indication that the RCD-Goma are on the brink of collapse. If such a situation materialises, the ASD will inevitably disintegrate. In that case, non-armed opposition parties like the UDPS will find it even more difficult to attain a place in the PACMT. A transitional government that includes the ASD seems more and more unlikely. 8.2 The Consolidation and Implementation of the PACMT with the ASD An outcome including the ASD looks increasingly unlikely in view of plans by the signatories of the PACMT to forge ahead with the inauguration of the transitional government on 15 June 2002. Members of a constitution-drafting group have already undertaken trips to Ituri Province in the northeast and to Matadi in western DRC to commence consultations with the population of these areas in a bid to garner more support for the transitional government. Once the draft transitional constitution text is complete and the transitional authority in place, the position of power desired by the ASD will be even more difficult to concede. At the same time the ASD, which can be best described as an unholy alliance between the armed and non-armed opposition forces in the DRC, could disintegrate. Since the RCD-Goma rebels are bridled by Rwanda, they have always needed a Congolese face to lead their armed opposition. The ASD may be just another partnership of convenience to enable the RCD-Goma to‘Congolise’ their attack on Kinshasa. 8.3 A Dissolution of the PACMT There are rising fears that the Kabila-Bemba pact will not stay the course. The present DRC government is dominated by officials from Katanga Province who strongly believe that it is their time to govern the DRC, following decades of rule by those from Equateur Province led by Mobutu Seso Seko. Since Bemba, who was closely related to Mobutu, represents the Equateur bloc, inter-regional tensions between the two groups are very probable. Regional rivalry has always stood in the way of an all-inclusive national government in the DRC. The situation has not changed much. Wrangling has already erupted between the two groups over the venue for the constitutional drafting meeting. On 21 May 2002, the MLC refused to take part in constitutional drafting sessions with the gov22 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE ernment in the port town of Matadi, citing cost and security concerns. Increased bickering is also expected over the appointment of cabinet posts, especially those relating to the army, economy, and finance. Needless to say, a stillborn PACMT will result in a continuation of the aura of violence in the DRC, and its continued occupation. 9. RECOMMENDATIONS 1. The role of the Masire facilitation team in organising follow- up meetings to the Sun City talks should be reviewed. The main task of the facilitation team – to identify and organise all stakeholders in the DRC imbroglio in preparation for the ICD – is over. Given the nature of developments in the aftermath of Sun City, the more urgent requirement is strong mediation to bring the groups back to the negotiation table. Moreover, there have been reports that both the Joseph Kabila government and the MLC are no longer willing to accept the Masire facilitation team to organise followup talks. 2. South Africa must convince the Congolese of its neutrality before it can take over as the mediator for the follow-up meetings. Because of its tacit support for Rwanda, South Africa is not seen as neutral by the DRC government. Although the South African proposals for a transitional government favoured the retention of Joseph Kabila as the transitional president, the Congolese are still quite suspicious about Pretoria’s allegiances. Furthermore, for South Africa to conduct effective mediation there is a serious need to improve its human capacity and to strike a workable balance with the conflict resolution efforts in Burundi, Angola and Zimbabwe. 3. A new mandate for the mediation must be achieved. This role was mandated to former Zambian president, Frederick Chiluba, at the September 1998 annual SADC summit. It remains unclear whether Zambia has given up this position. In order to find a lasting solution to the crisis, South Africa should seek a new mandate to undertake a more coherent mediation process that attains greater co-operation, especially by the DRC government. Effective mediation will also require the international stakeholders to be unanimous about the PACMT. A divided international response would be counterproductive for a continuation of the dialogue. The part played by African leaders in furthering dialogue must be reviewed. Changes in roles and personalities may be necessary. JUNE 2002 23

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 DRC’s neighbouring states must be drawn in if there is to be a lasting solution to conflict in the Great Lakes region. 4. Serious attention must be given to the plan to create a buffer zone between the DRC and Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. Since it remains impossible to disarm the groups responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide, Rwanda retains its justification for the military occupation of eastern DRC. A buffer zone to be secured by the militaries of the countries involved and monitored by an enlarged MONUC contingent, will compel Rwanda to withdraw its troops to its side of the border. 5. There is an urgent need for a Great Lakes Conference. The idea behind such an initiative is not just to secure consensus on the resumption of the dialogue, but to achieve agreement by neighbouring states to promote peace in their respective countries. Since a major cause of the DRC conflict has been the spilling over of its neighbours’ civil wars, the DRC will not be able to achieve lasting peace if the conflicts in surrounding countries are not resolved. Parallel peace processes must be pursued. 10. CONCLUSION Expectations that the Inter-Congolese Dialogue would produce an all-inclusive power-sharing agreement were driven by idealistic optimism about negotiations aimed at resolving a war of unmatched complexity. These false hopes may also have been fuelled by a certain short-sightedness about the nature and dynamics of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Whatever the reasons, convictions were widespread that the ICD provided the only opportunity for the belligerents and representatives of the Congolese population to pursue a political and peaceful resolution to the conflict. The reasons for the ICD’s unwanted outcome need to be more explicitly spelled out. As a product of the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement that legitimised the invasion of the DRC by Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi, the ICD was preconditioned to deliver an agreement on power-sharing in the Congo with forces created to address external interests. This has proven to be unattainable, not least because of the short duration of the ICD. It was and will continue to be extremely difficult to reconcile the ambitions of the Rwandan-aligned RCDGoma rebels to acquire equal if not greater power than the other actors with the conviction held by most Congolese that they merely represent an extension of the Kigali government. The agreement, beyond the parameters of the ICD, between the DRC government and Bemba’s MLC rebels has relegated the RCD-Goma to being the 24 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE sole rebel force opposing Kinshasa – as was the case when the conflict broke out in 1998. Moreover, the Kabila-Bemba PACMT provides for a political realignment of Congolese forces with the hopeful aim of introducing a transparent and accountable democratic government. There are, however, justifiable concerns about the commitment and sincerity of the new partners in the PACMT. The government has been, and for most Congolese still is, the only source for selfenrichment and wealth creation. The unfortunate reality is that the new authorities may be new partners in a more acceptable appropriation of the country’s riches. The PACMT could, therefore, become the formalisation of a new scramble for the DRC. JUNE 2002 25

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 11. REFERENCES Human Rights Watch(HRW). 2002. Congo: UN Monitors Needed. HRW Press Release, 28 March, at http://hrw.org/press/2002/03/congo0328.htm. International Crisis Group(ICG). 2001. The Inter-Congolese Dialogue: Political Negotiations or Game of Bluff? Report No. 37. Brussels/Nairobi: ICG. Integrated Regional Information Network(IRIN). 1999. DRC: Rebels Reportedly Ready to Sign the Lusaka Accord. Nairobi, 23 August. Integrated Regional Information Network(IRIN). 2002a. DRC: Bemba Boycotts Opening of Inter-Congolese Dialogue. 26 February, at http://www .irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=22923&SelectRegion=Great_Lakes&Se lectCountry=DRC. Integrated Regional Information Network(IRIN). 2002b. DRC: Mbeki in Bid to find Consensus at ICD. 9 April, at http://www.irinnews.org /report.asp?ReportID=27176&SelectRegion=Great_Lakes&SelectCountry= DRC. Integrated Regional Information Network(IRIN). 2002c. DRC: Wrangling Hits Dialogue Again Over Leadership Roles. 16 April, at http://www .irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=27297&SelectRegion=Great_Lakes&Se lectCountry=DRC. Integrated Regional Information Network(IRIN). 2002d. DRC: Focus on the Results of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue, 25 April, at http://www .irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=27470&SelectRegion=Great_Lakes&Se lectCountry=DRC Masire, K. 2001. Facilitator’s Report Reviewing the Inter-Congolese Dialogue Process to Date and Suggesting the Way Forward. http://www.drcpeace.org/Publications/viewPub.cfm? ItemID=244. Naidoo, S. 2000. Congo: From Bad to Worse. South African Yearbook of International Affairs, 1999/2000. Johannesburg: South African Institute of International Affairs. Naidoo, S. 2001. What Price Peace in the DRC? Global Dialogue, 6(2). 26 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE 12. ACRONYMS AMFI American Mineral Fields Inc. ASD Alliance for the Safeguard of the ICD BERCI Bureau d’Etudes, de Recherche et de Consulting International CODEP Collectief de l’Opposition Democratique Plurielle[Collective of the Democratic Opposition] CWI Cohen and Woods International DDRRR Disarmament, Demobilisaiton, Repatriation, Reintegration, and Resettlement DCF Democratique Chretien Federaliste[Democratic Federalist Christians] DRC Democratic Republic of Congo FONUS Forces Novatrices pour l’Union et la Solidarité[Forces of New Ideas for Unification and Solidarity] FRUONAR Front Uni de l’Opposition Non-Armée[Front for the Unified Non-armed Opposition] FSD Front pour la Survie de la Démocratie[Front for the Pursuit of Democracy] ICD Inter-Congolese Dialogue ICG International Crisis Group IDI Israel Diamond Institute IMF International Monetary Fund IRIN Integrated Regional Information Network LA Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement MLC Mouvement de Liberation du Congo[Congolese Liberation Movement] MNC-L Movement of Congolese Nationalists- Lumumba MONUC UN Observer Mission to the DRC MPR Mouvement Populaire de la Révolution[Popular Movement for the Revolution] MSDD Mouvement de Solidarité pour la Démocratie et le Développement[Solidarity Movement for Democracy and Development] OAU Organisation of African Unity JUNE 2002 27

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 PACMT PALU PDSC RCD RCD-ML RCD-N ROC ROM RPA SADC UDPS UN UNAFEC US Political Agreement on Consensual Management of the Transition in the DRC Party of Unified Lumumbists Parti Démocratie Social Chretienne[Christian Social Democratic Party] Rassemblement Congolais pour la Democratie[Rally for Congolese Democracy] RCD- Liberation Movement RCD – Nationale Regroupement de l’Opposition Congolaise[Regrouping of the Congolese Opposition] Regroupement de l’Opposition Modérée[Regrouping of the Moderate Opposition] Rwandan Patriotic Army Southern African Development Community Union for Democracy and Social Progress United Nations Union des Nationalistes Federaliste du Congo[Union of Federal Nationalists of the Congo] United States 28 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE APPENDIX 1 LIST OF POLITICAL PARTIES ATTENDING THE GABORONE‘PREDIALOGUE’ TALKS CODEP UDPS MSDD MNC-L UNAFEC MPR-Fait Privé Pionniers de l’Indépendance FONUS* ROM PALU* FSD DCF PDSC FRUONAR ROC* Raymond Tshibanda N’tunga Nombi Mubake Valentin Christophe Lutundula Apala François Lumumba Honoré Kisimba-Ngoy Nzuzi-Wa-Mbombo T.K.M. Jean-Marie Bomboko Lokumba Is’Elenge Joseph Olengankhoy Mukundyi Patrice-Aimé Sesanga Dja Kasiw Antoine Gizenga Eugène Diomi Ndongala Nzomambu Venant Tshipasa Vangi-Sivavi André Bo-Boliko Lokonga Rwakabuba Shinga Z’ahidi Arthur Ngoma * denotes those parties that did not reject the list of twenty additional political parties to constitute the non-armed opposition. JUNE 2002 29

OCCASIONAL PAPER NO 16 APPENDIX 2 DRAFT AGENDA FOR THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE The draft agenda for the meetings, as published by the Office of the Facilitator for the Inter-Congolese Dialogue, was as follows: 1. Validation of Delegates’ Mandates 2. Formal Adoption of the Rules of Procedure 3. Adoption of the Agenda 4. General Statements 5. End of the War: a) Assessments: causes and consequences b) Disarmament of armed groups c) Assessment of the withdrawal of foreign troops d) Assessment of the level of compliance of signatory parties to the Lusaka Agreement e) Cost of the two wars: 1996-1998 f) Peace and security in the DRC and in the sub-region: International Conference on Peace in the Great Lakes Region g) Peace agreement involving the belligerent countries h) Institution of the international tribunal for the Congo 6. The New Political Dispensation in DRC: a) The new political dispensation in the DRC, in particular the institutions to be established for good governance purposes in the DRC b) Re-establishment of the State’s administrative authority over the entire territory c) Transitional constitution d) Nationality e) Post-electoral draft constitution 7. New National Congolese Army: a) Formation of a new Congolese national army whose soldiers shall originate from the Congolese Armed Forces, the armed forces of the RCD[Rassemblement Congolais pour la Democratie] and armed forces of the MLC Mouvement de Liberation du Congo] b) Identification of Congolese nationals before the formation of the new army c) Formation of security and police services d) Formation of civil protection services 30 FRIEDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG

THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIAGLOGUE e) Demobilisation and reintegration of child soldiers and vulnerable persons f) Mechanism for the integration of Mai-Mai in the Army and the Police 8. Reconstruction: a) Examination and assessment of the validity of economic and financial conventions signed during the war b) Examination and assessment of validity of administrative, legislative and regulatory acts promulgated during the war 9. Urgent Basic Economic and Social Programme: a) Compensation measures for the environment destroyed by the war 10. National Reconciliation: a) Truth and reconciliation b) Ethnic coexistence c) Protection of minorities d) Establishment of principles pertaining to nationality 11. Guarantees for a Successful Ending: a) Involvement of international witnesses 12. Elections and Electoral Issues: a) Independent electoral commission 13. Adoption of Resolutions 14. Closing Speeches 15. Signing of the Final Document JUNE 2002 31