INTRODUCTION PEACE AND SECURITY UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Ò This report sums up the result of an opinion poll conducted in Ukraine and 7 countries of Central Europe in October 2022. Ò The top three countries with a very or rather positive attitude towards Ukraine before the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and now remain the same: Moldova, Lithuania, and Poland. The positive perception of Ukraine has increased in Lithuania(74% vs. 62% before) and Poland(61% vs. 53% before), while it has decreased in Moldova(62% vs. 71% before). Tetiana Kostiuchenko, Sergiy Gerasymchuk, Mariia Koval-Honchar December 2022 Ò More than half of the respondents in every surveyed country agreed that Ukraine should eventually become a full member of the EU. In most countries, a similar percentage is shown for NATO. 1 PEACE AND SECURITY UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Contents 1 Methodology 2 2 Summary 3 3 Results 5 3.1 Most visited countries and purposes of the visits................................................................................5 3.2 Key associations................................................................................................................................6 3.3 Attitude towards other countries before and after February 2022......................................................6 3.4 Awareness of regional initiatives.....................................................................................................10 3.5 Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO....................................................................................10 3.6 Perception of bilateral relations.......................................................................................................12 3.7 Ways to tackle various threats.........................................................................................................12 3.8 Preparedness for personal inconveniences or economic difficulties in order to strengthen a country’s army..............................................................................................................................13 3.9 Leadership roles...............................................................................................................................16 3.10 Destination countries for Ukrainians affected by Russia’s war: an exploration of mutual awareness.....16 3.11 Safety against the background of Russia’s war in Ukraine................................................................20 3.12 Military and economic support for Ukraine......................................................................................20 3.13 NATO contingents and assessment of Russia’s aggression................................................................22 3.14 National interests and consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine.......................................................22 3.15 Joint condemnation of crimes..........................................................................................................27 1 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS 1 METHODOLOGY Target audience: Population of Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Romania, Moldova 18+ y.o. Method: CAWI – computer-assisted web interviews 1116 CAWI in Hungary(max sample error is 2,9%); 1105 CAWI in Slovakia(max sample error is 2,9%); 1100 CAWI in Lithuania(max sample error is 3,0%); 1105 CAWI in Romania(max sample error is 2,9%); 436 CAWI in Moldova(max sample error is 4,7%). Fieldwork: The field part was conducted by LLC Info Sapiens Int. during October 13-31, 2022 Sample size: The data was weighted to represent the population of each country by sex, age, and region. Maximum sample error per different samples is larger than the general one, but allows to draw conclusions. 1213 CAWI in Ukraine(max sample error is 2,8%); 1105 CAWI in Poland(max sample error is 2,9%); 1101 CAWI in Czech Republic(max sample error is 3,0%); The researched was initiated and organized by the Representation of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Ukraine and the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism. 2 SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY Ukrainians had visited Poland(38%) the most before February 24, 2022, and Ukraine was visited the most by ­Moldova(50%). The main reason for both was tourism. In general, Ukraine is primarily associated with war, but also with neighbors and friends. The main associations of Ukrainians about each of the listed countries differ, they are“anti-Ukrainian” for Hungary,“Roma” for Romania,“wine” for Moldova and“help”,“friends” for other countries. According to respondents from all countries, the most effective way to resolve the military threat from Russia is on NATO level, and the majority think that the most effective way to resolve the energy crisis, economic difficulties, fighting inflation and stability of democracy is at the EU level.In the majority of countries people think that the most effective way to resolve radical political movements is at the EU level, while Ukrainians believe that the most effective way is at the national level of Ukraine(44%). Ukrainians had the best attitude before the start of the full-scale invasion towards people from Poland(88% very or rather positive), Lithuania and Czech Republic(73% each very or rather positive). They have the best attitude now towards people in Poland(91% very or rather positive), Lithuania and Latvia(79% each very or rather positive). Ukrainians had the worst attitude towards Hungary (30% very or rather negative), and still have it(43% very or rather negative). TOP-3 countries with a very or rather positive attitude towards Ukraine before the start of the full-scale invasion and now is the same. These are Moldova, Lithuania, and Poland. The positive perception of Ukraine has grown in Lithuania(74% vs 62% before) and Poland(61% vs 53% before) and declined in Moldova(62% vs 71% before). The most well-known format of regional cooperation for Ukrainians is Warsaw-London-Kyiv format, while the most well-known format for countries belonging to the Visegrad Four is Visegr á d Four respectively. Ukrainians show a high level of interest in almost all formats of regional cooperation, and for people from Romania and Hungary the format of Lublin triangle attracts the greatest interest. More than half of the respondents in every country agreed that Ukraine should eventually become a full member of the EU and in most countries a similar percentage is shown for NATO. Ukrainians tend to think that the most successful are Ukraine’s relations in matters of European integration while other countries mostly name matters of economic cooperation.The most problematic issues are about historical memory for all countries, including Ukraine. Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland are in TOP-3 by the readiness to personal inconveniences or economic difficulties in order to strengthen their country army(78%, 50%, and 40% reported“yes” or“rather yes”). Moldova, Slovakia and Czech Republic are rather unprepared for personal inconveniences or economic difficulties(56%, 54%, and 44% reported“definitely” or“rather not ready”). Ukrainians think that Poland(50%) is more likely to become or already is a leader in Europe, and Ukraine ranks second (39%). Other listed countries tend to think so except for Czech Republic and Moldova. Also, Ukrainians think that Great Britain is more likely to become or already is a leader in Europe(55%), when other listed countries tend to think that Germany is more likely to become or be the one. Based on the research, the largest number of people moved to Poland because of the Russian war in Ukraine: 78% of Ukrainians have relatives, friends or acquaintances who went to this country. TOP-3 countries with the highest ­level of migration experience are Poland(mean 5.98), ­Estonia(mean 5.80) and Lithuania(mean 5.76). Ukrainians are well or somewhat informed the most about Poland(68% somewhat or very well informed) and also tend to search for information or news about political events and social life the most there(59% and 54%). Most people in the polled countries of Central Europe don’t know personally anyone who moved to their country because of Russia’s war in Ukraine but feel rather positive towards Ukrainians who left for their country because of the war. More than half of respondents from Lithuania and Poland tend to the fact that the Central European and Baltic states 3 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS should provide even more military and economic support to Ukraine, while Slovakia, Hungary and Czech Republic definitely or rather disagree with it. Respondents from Lithuania, Poland and Moldova also tend to the fact that the Central European and Baltic states should provide even more economic support to Ukraine.Respondents from Lithuania think that there is rather an insufficient number of NATO contingents on their territory(40% definitely or rather insufficient), in other countries respondents are rather satisfied with it. Countries that mostly agree with the statement“­Russian aggression in Ukraine is groundless” are Poland and ­Lithuania, 41% of respondents from Moldova rather agree with the statement“Russian aggression in Ukraine is a reaction to the decisions and actions of Western countries”. National interests prevail in the formation of the foreign policy in Hungary(45%) and Poland(37%), compared to others. The majority of respondents from all the countries feel the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine in their country. The most popular consequences for all countries are rising prices for goods and utility services, threats to the security of the country. The most popular sources of information about events in Ukraine for all the countries are national TV and national news websites, so respondents trust their country’s national media sources the most. The majority support the joint condemnation of the crimes of communism and the joint condemnation of Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine. 4 RESULTS 3 RESULTS 3.1 MOST VISITED COUNTRIES AND PURPOSES OF THE VISITS Top countries Ukrainians had visited the most before February 24, 2022 are Poland(38%), Czech Republic(16%), Hungary and Moldova(15% each). Half of the respondents from Moldova had visited Ukraine before February 24, 25% Lithuanians and 15% Polish made a visit too. Mostly Ukrainians visited all listed countries for tourism: 79% for Lithuania, 77% for Estonia, 70% for Latvia and Hungary. Almost half of Ukrainians visited their relatives in Poland(45%) and Slovakia(42%). The highest percentage of Ukrainians who visited other countries for business and work is among those who visited Moldova(21%). People mostly visited Ukraine for tourism: 80% for Poland, 70% for Lithuania, 69% for Romania. Also, one third of people from Moldova(32%) visited their relatives in Ukraine. The highest percentage of those who visited Ukraine for business and work is among citizens of Slovakia: 29% visited Ukraine for work. Graph 1 Top countries Ukrainians had visited before February 24, 2022 Graph 1a Respondents from the surveyed countries, who visited Ukraine before February 24, 2022 Graph 2 For what main purpose did you visit and stay the longest time in...? 5 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Graph 3 For what main purpose did you visit and stay the longest time in Ukraine? 3.2 KEY ASSOCIATIONS “War” is the most popular association about Ukraine for respondents in all the countries in Visegr á d Group. Ukrainians associate all countries in Visegr á d Group with “help” and“friends”, except for Hungary. The most popular association about Hungary is“Anti-Ukrainian”. Respondents from Lithuania mentioned the association“friends” the most when thinking about Ukraine, the same is for Ukrainians’ association about all 3 listed ­Baltic countries. Ukrainians also associate Estonia, ­Latvia and Lithuania together with“Europe”,“help” and “­vacation”. “War” is the most popular association with Ukraine for respondents in Romania and Moldova,“neighbors” were also mentioned in both countries. Ukrainians associate ­Romania with“Roma” and“Dracula” the most, and ­Moldova with“wine” and“grapes”. 3.3 ATTITUDE TOWARDS OTHER COUNTRIES BEFORE AND AFTER FEBRUARY 2022 Ukrainians had the best attitude before the start of the fullscale invasion towards people from Poland(88% very or rather positive), Lithuania and Czech Republic(73% each very or rather positive). They had the worst attitude towards ­Hungary(30% very or rather negative). Graph 4 TOP-10 associations about Ukraine, Visegr á d Group 6 Graph 5 TOP-10 associations of Ukrainians: Visegr á d Group Graph 6 TOP-10 associations: Baltic countries RESULTS Graph 7 TOP-10 associations: Romania and Moldova 7 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Graph 8 How would you rate your attitude towards each of the countries before the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine(until February 2022)? Graph 9 How would you rate your attitude towards each of the countries before the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine(until February 2022)?(by region) Residents from the South of Ukraine are the most positive towards Moldova, and they are mostly sure in their choice: the number of those who are not sure is the smallest(27%). The number of those who are not sure is the highest for Romania compared to other countries(49%). 53% of residents from the West of Ukraine had a positive attitude towards ­Romania before the full-scale invasion, which is the biggest percentage for Ukraine. Residents of Kyiv had the least positive attitude towards Hungary: only 17% had a posit­ive attitude before the full-scale invasion. Ukrainians have the best attitude now towards people in Poland(91% very or rather positive), Lithuania and Latvia (79% each very or rather positive). They still have the worst attitude towards Hungary, compared to other countries (43% very or rather negative). The number of those who are not sure towards different countries now is the biggest towards Romania(40%) and Moldova (41%). Also, the share of people who have a negative attitude towards Hungary among the residents of Kyiv has significantly increased(35% vs 56% very or rather negative). The best attitude towards Ukraine before the start of the full-scale invasion was in Moldova(71% very or rather positive), Lithuania(62%), and Poland(53%). The number of those who are not sure in their attitude towards Ukraine is the biggest in Hungary(46%). TOP-3 countries with the very or rather positive attitude towards Ukraine now is the same, but with Lithuania on the first place(74% compared to 62% before the full-scale invasion), followed by Poland(61% vs 53% before), and Moldova where the positive perception of Ukraine declined (62% vs 71% before). The number of people who have a positive attitude towards Ukraine has increased in Romania compared to before February 24(52% very or rather positive). Contrarily, almost a third(28%) of people in Slovakia began to have a negative attitude towards Ukraine, while this percentage was only 20% until February 24. The number of people in Hungary who have a very negative attitude towards Ukraine increased by 7%, and the number of those who were undecided decreased by 10%. 8 Graph 10 How would you rate your attitude towards each country now? RESULTS Graph 11 How would you rate your attitude towards each country now?(by region) Graph 12 How would you rate your attitude towards Ukraine before the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine(until February 2022)? 9 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Graph 13 How would you rate your attitude towards Ukraine now? 3.4 AWARENESS OF REGIONAL INITIATIVES In Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, and Czech Republic people are the most aware of the Visegr á d Four(49%, 41%, 34% and 30% respectively). Ukrainians are the most aware of Warsaw-London-Kyiv format(25%). In Ukraine, almost all formats of regional cooperation attract rather high interest(more than 40% did not hear of them, but would like to know more). The Lublin triangle attracts the greatest interest in Romania(51%) and ­Hungary(43%). 1 1 In the questions in all the countries, the phrase“...regional cooperation of Ukraine with your country” remained, although this was not relevant for some formats, e.g. for the”WarsawLondon-Kyiv” format in Romania or Lithuania, etc. However, the research team assumes that the attention of the interviewees was focused on the”formats of regional cooperation” issue because we observe a higher level of awareness regarding some formats precisely in the countries that participate in this format. 3.5 UKRAINE’S MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU AND NATO More than half of the respondents in all listed countries agreed that Ukraine should eventually become a full member of the European Union. Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland are in TOP-3 by the answers“Yes”(91%, 88%, and 82% reported answers“Yes”). More than half of the respondents in the majority of countries agreed that Ukraine should eventually become a full member of NATO, except for Moldova(49% named specific possible terms) and Hungary(47% named specific possible terms). Between European countries, the highest number of those who believe that it is possible within a year is in Lithuania(46%), when a third of respondents from Slovakia and Hungary never see Ukraine in NATO(33% and 35%). In Moldova, people aged 35+ are the most skeptical about Ukraine’s membership in NATO. At the same time, supporting Ukraine’s accession to NATO in the short term does not depend on the level of education. Graph 14 Please indicate whether or not you know the following formats of regional cooperation between your country and Ukraine? % of those who chose“Yes, I know” 10 RESULTS Graph 15 Please indicate whether or not you know the following formats of regional cooperation between your country and Ukraine? % of those who chose“No, I don’t know, I would like to know more” Graph 16 Should Ukraine, if at all, become a full member of the EU? Graph 17 Should Ukraine, if at all, become a full member of NATO? 11 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS 3.6 PERCEPTION OF BILATERAL RELATIONS Ukrainians tend to think that the most successful are Ukraine’s relations in matters of European integration, especially with Poland(mean 6.49). The most problematic issues are about historical memory, especially with ­Hungary(mean 3.65). However, Ukrainian population does not see strong problems in matters of historical memory towards Poland. With increasing age, Ukrainians have a worse assessment of Ukraine’s relations with Hungary in all fields. Also, respondents from Kyiv tend to rate Ukraine’s relations with Hungary the worst. Respondents generally tend to think that the most successful are their country’s relations with Ukraine in matters of economic cooperation, TOP-3 countries to think so are Lithuania(mean 5.43), Moldova(mean 4.80) and Poland(mean 4.74). The most problematic issues are about historical memory, especially for ­Hungary(mean 2.93). 3.7 WAYS TO TACKLE VARIOUS THREATS The majority among Ukrainians(60%) think that the most effective way to resolving the military threat from Russia is on NATO level. The percentage increases with the age of the respondents: older people think that the most effective way. All others also think that it is the most effective way to resolve the military threat from Russia. Graph 18 How successful or problematic are Ukraine’s relations with each of the specified countries in the field: Means, 7-point scale, 1“very problematic”, 7“very successful”, answer“Hard to say” is not included. Respondents from Ukraine Graph 19 How successful or problematic are your country’s relations with Ukraine regarding the following issues: Means, 7-point scale, 1“very problematic”, 7“very successful”, answer“Hard to say” is not included. Respondents from Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Romania, Moldova 12 RESULTS The majority think that the most effective way to resolving the energy crisis is on EU level. Much fewer believe that it is possible on the level of the UN structures. The majority think that the most effective way to resolving economic difficulties and fighting inflation is on EU level. Much less believe that it is possible on the level of UN structures. 20% of Ukrainians believe that it is ­possible to do at the national level of Ukraine, which is the same for Moldova. In the majority of countries people think that the most effective way to resolve the issue of radical political movements is on the EU level, while Ukrainians believe that the most effective way is on the national level of Ukraine(44%). The majority think that the most effective way to resolve the issue of the stability of democracy is on the EU level. Ukrainians believe that it is also possible on the national level(27%). 3.8 PREPAREDNESS FOR PERSONAL INCONVENIENCES OR ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES IN ORDER TO STRENGTHEN A COUNTRY’S ARMY Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland are in TOP-3 by the readiness to personal inconveniences or economic difficulties in order to strengthen their country army(78%, 50%, and 40% reported“yes” or“rather yes”). Moldova, Slovakia and Czech Republic are rather unprepared for personal inconveniences or economic difficulties(56%, 54%, and 44% reported“definitely” or“rather not ready”). The large number of young people(18-34 y.o.) in Romania is unsure about the readiness to personal inconveniences or economic difficulties. The older population of Moldova is rather not ready to endure difficulties(58% of respondents 45+ are not ready), as well as people with uncompleted or completed secondary education in Moldova. Also, the more educated Ukrainians are, the more they are ready to personal inconveniences or economic difficulties. Graph 20 At what level is it possible to resolve the following issues most effectively? Military threat from Russia Table 1 At what level is it possible to resolve the following issues most effectively? Military threat from Russia(Ukraine by age) National level of Ukraine The level of the Central European region and the Baltic States EU level NATO level The level of UN structures Hard to say 18-24 13% 5% 5% 41% 26% 10% 25-34 13% 2% 7% 54% 14% 10% Age 35-44 5% 0% 7% 58% 19% 11% 45-54 6% 1% 4% 66% 16% 8% 55+ 7% 5% 2% 66% 15% 6% Total 8% 3% 4% 60% 17% 8% 13 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Graph 21 At what level is it possible to resolve the following issues most effectively? Energy crisis Graph 22 At what level is it possible to resolve the following issues most effectively? Economic difficulties, inflation Graph 23 At what level is it possible to resolve the following issues most effectively? Radical political movements 14 RESULTS Graph 24 At what level is it possible to resolve the following issues most effectively? Stability of democracy and compliance with European democratic norms Graph 25 To what extent are you prepared or not for personal inconveniences or economic difficulties in order to strengthen your country’s army? Graph 26 To what extent are you prepared or not for personal inconveniences or economic difficulties in order to strengthen your country’s army?(by age) 15 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Graph 27 To what extent are you prepared or not for personal inconveniences or economic difficulties in order to strengthen your country’s army?(by education) 3.9 LEADERSHIP ROLES Ukrainians think that Poland(50%) is more likely to become or already is a leader in Europe, and Ukraine ranks second(39%). Other listed countries tend to think so except for Czech Republic, which ranks itself the highest(27%) and Moldova, which ranks Romania the highest(22%). Ukrainians think that Great Britain is more likely to become or already is a leader in Europe(55%), when other listed countries tend to think that Germany is more likely to become or be the one. 3.10 DESTINATION COUNTRIES FOR UKRAINIANS, WHO LEFT THE COUNTRY BECAUSE OF THE RUSSIA’S WAR. EXPERIENCE AND MUTUAL AWARENESS. Based on the research, the largest number of Ukrainian people left to Poland: 78% of Ukrainians have relatives, friends or acquaintances who left to this country because of the Russian war in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians also have relatives, friends or acquaintances who left to Czech Republic(46%) and Slovakia (16%). TOP-3 countries that were rated the highest through the lens of migration experience were Poland(mean 5.98), Estonia(mean 5.80) and Lithuania(mean 5.76). Graph 28 Can any of the following countries become(or already is) a regional leader in the Central Europe and the Baltics? 16 Graph 29 Can any of the following countries become(or already is) a leader in Europe? RESULTS Graph 30 Do you have relatives, friends or acquaintances who left for any of the specified countries because of the Russian war in Ukraine? % of those who chose“Yes”. Based on what you know, how do your relatives\friends\acquaintances who left for one of the specified countries because of Russia’s war in Ukraine rate their migration experience?(among those who have relatives\friends\ acquaintances in these countries) Means, 7-point scale, 1“very negative”, 7“very positive”, answer“Hard to say” is not included Ukrainians are well or somewhat informed the most about Poland(68% somewhat or very well informed) and Czech Republic(47% somewhat or very well informed). They also want to learn about Romania and Slovakia the most(46% and 44%). Ukrainians mostly searched for information or news about political events in Poland(59%), Moldova(33%) and Hungary(31%). They searched for information or news about social life and culture in Poland(54%), Czech Republic(30%), and Lithuania(26%) the most. The majority feel rather positive towards Ukrainians left for their country because of the war. Lithuania(8.46), Romania(8.03) and Moldova(7.98) are the most positive in their attitude. The most popular sources of information about events in Ukraine for all the polled countries are national TV and national news websites. Facebook groups are the most popular way to get information about events in Ukraine through social media, except for Poland and Moldova, where YouTube is the most popular social media. Most people in the polled countries of Central Europe don’t know personally anyone who moved to their country because of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The highest percentage of people who know someone personally is in Moldova (56% named who those people are), and in Romania and Hungary the percentage of people who don’t know personally anyone who moved to their country because of Russia’s war in Ukraine is the highest(78% and 77%). Overall, respondents trust their country’s national media sources the most. Top-3 countries to trust their national media sources and Ukrainian media sources the most are Lithuania(3.77 and 3.69), Poland(3.67 and 3.51), and Romania(3.44 and 3.17). Hungary shows the lowest level of trust in any sources of information about Russia’s war in Ukraine(2.79 for national sources, 2.69 for Ukrainian sources, 2.45 for Russian sources). 17 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Graph 31 Overall, how would you rate your awareness of these countries? Respondents in Ukraine Graph 32 In the last month, have you searched\read\watched information or news about … in these countries?% of those who chose “Yes”. Respondents in Ukraine Graph 33 Do you personally know someone who moved to your country because of Russia’s war in Ukraine? 18 RESULTS Graph 34 How would you rate your general attitude towards Ukrainians who left for your country because of Russia’s war in Ukraine? Means, 11-point scale, 0“very negative”, 10“very positive”, answer“Hard to say” is not included Graph 35 Where do you most often get the information about the events in Ukraine? Graph 36 How true or not, in your opinion, is the information about Russia’s war in Ukraine?(in different media) Means, 5-point scale, 1“Absolutely false”, 5“Absolutely true”, answer“Hard to say” is not included 19 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS 3.11 SAFETY AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF RUSSIA’S WAR IN UKRAINE The majority are rather feeling safe considering the hostilities in Ukraine, only in Moldova the mean is 4.33. Lithuania(6.46) and Czech Republic(6.41) feel the safest. 3.12 MILITARY AND ECONOMIC SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE More than half of respondents from Lithuania(60%) and Poland(54%) tend to the fact that the Central European and Baltic states should provide even more military support to Ukraine. Slovakia, Hungary and Czech Republic definitely or rather disagree with it(48%, 46% and 43% respectively). Representatives of the older generation in Lithuania are most tended to support(69%), as well as those who have incomplete or completed higher education(62% and 68%). More than half of the people aged 45+ in Hungary oppose providing military aid to Ukraine if it means economic hardship for that country. Moreover, there are the most people who are not tended to support among the representatives of the older generation in Hungary and Slovakia. More than half of respondents from Lithuania(61%) and almost half from Poland(49%) and Moldova(47%) tend to the fact that the Central European and Baltic states should provide even more economic support to Ukraine. In Poland, 27% of young people oppose providing economic support to Ukraine, and 40% are unsure. Among older people(those who experienced Soviet Union), the share of those who think so is only 9%. Graph 37 To what extent do you feel safe considering the hostilities in Ukraine? Means, 11-point scale, 0“in great danger”, 10“absolutely safe”, answer“Hard to say” is not included Graph 38 Should the Central European and Baltic states provide even more military support to Ukraine to fight the war with Russia, even if it results in economic difficulties for you and your country? 20 RESULTS Graph 39 Should the Central European and Baltic states provide even more military support to Ukraine to fight the war with Russia, even if it results in economic difficulties for you and your country?(by age) Graph 40 Should the Central European and Baltic states provide even more economic support to Ukraine, even if this results in economic difficulties for you and your country? Table 2 Should the Central European and Baltic states provide even more economic support to Ukraine, even if this results in economic difficulties for you and your country?(Poland by age) Definitely yes Rather yes Hard to say Rather no Definitely no 18-24 11% 21% 40% 19% 8% 25-34 14% 23% 37% 15% 11% Age 35-44 16% 25% 35% 14% 10% 45-54 26% 29% 29% 13% 3% 55+ 34% 38% 19% 5% 4% Total 21% 28% 31% 13% 7% 21 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS 3.13 NATO CONTINGENTS AND ASSESSMENT OF RUSSIA’S AGGRESSION Respondents from Lithuania think that there is rather an insufficient number of NATO contingents on their territory (40% definitely or rather insufficient), in other countries respondents are rather satisfied with it. Countries that mostly agree with the statement“Russian aggression in Ukraine is groundless” are Poland(mean 3.06), Lithuania(mean 3.53), Romania(mean 4.23), and Czech Republic(mean 4.35). 41% of respondents from Moldova rather agree with the statement“Russian aggression in Ukraine is a reaction to the decisions and actions of Western countries”. The majority agrees that European Union is fully or partially dependent on the energy resources from Russia. In Hungary the percentage of“Yes” answers prevails over others(51%). 3.14 NATIONAL INTERESTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF RUSSIA’S WAR IN UKRAINE The majority of respondents from all the countries feel the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine in their country – more than 80% of people in Moldova, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania, and Poland do or rather feel them. The most popular consequences for all countries are rising prices for goods and utility services, threats to the security of the country. 20% of Lithuanians agree that the awareness about Ukraine is raising as a consequence of the war. Graph 41 In your opinion, is there a sufficient number of NATO contingents on your territory? Graph 42 Which of the following statements best matches your opinion? 11-point scale, where 0 means completely agree with the statement“Russian aggression in Ukraine is groundless” and 10 – completely agree with the statement“Russian aggression in Ukraine is a reaction to the decisions and actions of Western countries” 22 RESULTS Graph 43 In your opinion, is the EU dependent on the energy resources from Russia(gas, oil, fuel for nuclear power plants)? Graph 44 What prevails in the formation of the foreign policy of your country? Graph 45 Do you feel any consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine in your country? 23 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Graph 46 What consequences are felt the most in your country? In all countries except for Hungary and Czech Republic female respondents feel threat to the security of their ­country significantly more than male respondents. In Romania, Poland and Slovakia respondents with basic secondary education feel rising prices for goods less but feel competition for jobs more. Also, in all countries except Lithuania young people(18-24 y.o.) tended to feel less threat to the security of their country, when in Poland people age 45+ are worried about it the most. National interests prevail in the formation of the foreign policy in Hungary(45%) and Poland(37%), compared to others. The highest level of European Union interests prevailing is in Romania(53%) and Slovakia(48%). Lithuania and Poland demonstrate a higher level of the Central European and Baltic region interests compared to other countries(15%and 12%). Table 3 What consequences are felt the most in your country?(by age) Romania Rising prices for goods, deterioration of purchasing power Rising prices for utility services, energy Threat to the security of my country Getting rid of energy dependence on russia for my country and the EU in general Strengthening the security of my country Loss of the opportunity to trade freely with russia due to sanctions Raising awareness about Ukraine Competition for jobs and fewer opportunities for employment Improvement of relations with Ukrainians Additional burden on the education sector Inflow of qualified workforce Revival of communication in my community thanks to new people(in particular, refugees from Ukraine) Other Hard to say Other: incompetent pro-russian government Sex Male Female 76% 74% 37% 22% 15% 13% 5% 5% 9% 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 78% 77% 47% 18% 11% 13% 10% 10% 4% 4% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 18-24 71% 66% 27% 22% 18% 23% 12% 14% 9% 3% 5% 1% 0% 1% 0% 25-34 74% 74% 40% 21% 9% 12% 8% 10% 3% 4% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% Age 35-44 76% 75% 42% 18% 12% 10% 9% 7% 5% 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 45-54 79% 78% 47% 16% 13% 15% 7% 7% 7% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 55+ 84% 78% 46% 27% 17% 12% 5% 3% 8% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% Total 77% 75% 42% 20% 13% 13% 8% 7% 6% 3% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 24 RESULTS Poland Rising prices for goods, deterioration of purchasing power Rising prices for utility services, energy Threat to the security of my country Getting rid of energy dependence on russia for my country and the EU in general Strengthening the security of my country Loss of the opportunity to trade freely with russia due to sanctions Raising awareness about Ukraine Competition for jobs and fewer opportunities for employment Improvement of relations with Ukrainians Additional burden on the education sector Inflow of qualified workforce Revival of communication in my community thanks to new people(in particular, refugees from Ukraine) Other Hard to say Other: incompetent pro-russian government Slovakia Rising prices for goods, deterioration of purchasing power Rising prices for utility services, energy Threat to the security of my country Getting rid of energy dependence on russia for my country and the EU in general Strengthening the security of my country Loss of the opportunity to trade freely with russia due to sanctions Raising awareness about Ukraine Competition for jobs and fewer opportunities for employment Improvement of relations with Ukrainians Additional burden on the education sector Inflow of qualified workforce Revival of communication in my community thanks to new people(in particular, refugees from Ukraine) Other Hard to say Other: incompetent pro-russian government Hungary Rising prices for goods, deterioration of purchasing power Rising prices for utility services, energy Threat to the security of my country Getting rid of energy dependence on russia for my country and the EU in general Strengthening the security of my country Loss of the opportunity to trade freely with russia due to sanctions Sex Male Female 68% 65% 39% 20% 12% 14% 10% 12% 14% 14% 6% 4% 1% 1% 0% 70% 63% 48% 18% 7% 8% 9% 21% 7% 21% 6% 4% 1% 0% 0% 77% 65% 38% 26% 10% 23% 6% 11% 5% 5% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0% 81% 67% 51% 17% 6% 18% 4% 15% 3% 6% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 76% 67% 22% 23% 10% 25% 75% 65% 27% 20% 13% 20% 18-24 67% 49% 25% 14% 6% 14% 15% 33% 10% 21% 10% 10% 2% 0% 0% 75% 57% 31% 21% 6% 16% 11% 27% 10% 9% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 66% 58% 17% 16% 5% 12% 25-34 69% 66% 38% 20% 7% 13% 10% 20% 4% 17% 7% 4% 2% 1% 0% 82% 67% 44% 19% 8% 21% 7% 16% 3% 6% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 75% 60% 24% 17% 7% 20% Age 35-44 69% 61% 43% 17% 9% 12% 10% 14% 11% 22% 7% 5% 0% 0% 0% 81% 70% 46% 20% 8% 14% 4% 9% 4% 4% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 73% 67% 27% 27% 11% 21% 45-54 72% 67% 46% 20% 13% 7% 8% 15% 12% 16% 4% 3% 2% 0% 0% 77% 69% 49% 21% 6% 18% 5% 13% 2% 8% 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 79% 70% 26% 21% 10% 31% 55+ 67% 69% 58% 20% 11% 9% 6% 10% 15% 15% 5% 2% 0% 1% 0% 81% 62% 44% 27% 10% 32% 1% 7% 3% 1% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 79% 70% 26% 22% 21% 23% Total 69% 64% 44% 19% 9% 11% 9% 17% 11% 18% 6% 4% 1% 1% 0% 79% 66% 44% 22% 8% 21% 5% 13% 4% 5% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 76% 66% 25% 21% 11% 23% 25 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Raising awareness about Ukraine Competition for jobs and fewer opportunities for employment Improvement of relations with Ukrainians Additional burden on the education sector Inflow of qualified workforce Revival of communication in my community thanks to new people(in particular, refugees from Ukraine) Other Hard to say Other: incompetent pro-russian government Czech Republic Rising prices for goods, deterioration of purchasing power Rising prices for utility services, energy Threat to the security of my country Getting rid of energy dependence on russia for my country and the EU in general Strengthening the security of my country Loss of the opportunity to trade freely with russia due to sanctions Raising awareness about Ukraine Competition for jobs and fewer opportunities for employment Improvement of relations with Ukrainians Additional burden on the education sector Inflow of qualified workforce Revival of communication in my community thanks to new people(in particular, refugees from Ukraine) Other Hard to say Other: incompetent pro-russian government Moldova Rising prices for goods, deterioration of purchasing power Rising prices for utility services, energy Threat to the security of my country Getting rid of energy dependence on russia for my country and the EU in general Strengthening the security of my country Loss of the opportunity to trade freely with russia due to sanctions Raising awareness about Ukraine Competition for jobs and fewer opportunities for employment Improvement of relations with Ukrainians Additional burden on the education sector Inflow of qualified workforce Revival of communication in my community thanks to new people(in particular, refugees from Ukraine) Other Hard to say Other: incompetent pro-russian government Sex Male Female 4% 3% 11% 13% 4% 10% 4% 3% 13% 4% 3% 2% 0% 0% 1% 3% 2% 1% 73% 72% 28% 23% 6% 15% 19% 7% 6% 15% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 78% 70% 34% 14% 4% 15% 16% 17% 3% 22% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 69% 71% 45% 17% 12% 22% 4% 9% 9% 4% 4% 2% 0% 1% 0% 67% 74% 55% 12% 9% 31% 4% 7% 6% 3% 3% 3% 0% 1% 0% 18-24 10% 14% 6% 23% 8% 8% 1% 5% 1% 75% 73% 19% 9% 6% 13% 34% 18% 4% 17% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 63% 74% 39% 11% 16% 21% 2% 5% 14% 9% 5% 2% 0% 2% 0% 25-34 4% 19% 4% 15% 5% 2% 0% 2% 1% 72% 66% 28% 20% 3% 11% 21% 17% 7% 19% 4% 4% 0% 1% 0% 64% 74% 53% 17% 11% 24% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 4% 0% 3% 0% Age 35-44 3% 10% 3% 15% 3% 2% 0% 1% 2% 76% 71% 28% 20% 6% 14% 15% 13% 4% 22% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 69% 78% 52% 16% 9% 25% 1% 7% 5% 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 45-54 3% 10% 2% 9% 3% 2% 0% 1% 2% 77% 76% 33% 17% 2% 16% 16% 9% 3% 16% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 77% 70% 46% 15% 11% 24% 8% 11% 8% 1% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 55+ 2% 8% 4% 4% 2% 0% 1% 2% 2% 76% 69% 41% 20% 9% 19% 11% 8% 3% 17% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 65% 69% 54% 10% 8% 37% 2% 10% 10% 5% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% Total 4% 12% 4% 12% 4% 2% 0% 2% 1% 75% 71% 31% 18% 5% 15% 18% 12% 4% 18% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 68% 73% 50% 14% 11% 27% 4% 8% 7% 4% 3% 2% 0% 1% 0% 26 RESULTS Lithuania Rising prices for goods, deterioration of purchasing power Rising prices for utility services, energy Threat to the security of my country Getting rid of energy dependence on russia for my country and the EU in general Strengthening the security of my country Loss of the opportunity to trade freely with russia due to sanctions Raising awareness about Ukraine Competition for jobs and fewer opportunities for employment Improvement of relations with Ukrainians Additional burden on the education sector Inflow of qualified workforce Revival of communication in my community thanks to new people(in particular, refugees from Ukraine) Other Hard to say Other: incompetent pro-russian government Sex Male Female 63% 65% 32% 27% 24% 9% 20% 7% 12% 6% 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% 63% 69% 43% 18% 26% 9% 20% 10% 8% 6% 1% 4% 1% 0% 0% 18-24 56% 61% 34% 19% 16% 10% 26% 17% 11% 8% 2% 9% 0% 0% 0% 25-34 60% 66% 40% 25% 20% 6% 16% 12% 11% 5% 2% 6% 0% 0% 0% Age 35-44 66% 64% 35% 18% 29% 9% 21% 7% 7% 9% 2% 5% 1% 0% 0% 45-54 62% 69% 38% 17% 22% 11% 21% 7% 10% 6% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 55+ 66% 72% 39% 30% 31% 8% 19% 4% 10% 3% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% Total 63% 67% 38% 22% 25% 9% 20% 8% 10% 6% 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3.15 JOINT CONDEMNATION OF CRIMES The majority support the joint condemnation of the crimes of communism. Top-3 countries are Poland(73% definitely or rather yes), Lithuania(71% definitely or rather yes) and ­Romania(69% definitely or rather yes). Respondents from ­Moldova showed the least support: 27% definitely or rather do not support the joint condemnation of the crimes of communism. The majority support the joint condemnation of Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine. Top-3 countries are Poland(79% definitely or rather yes), Lithuania(78% definitely or rather yes) and Romania(71% definitely or rather yes). Respondents from Moldova showed the least support there too: 26% definitely or rather do not support the joint condemnation of Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine. Graph 47 Do you support the joint condemnation of the crimes of communism by the countries of Central Europe or not? 27 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Graph 48 Do you support the joint condemnation of Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine by the Central European countries or not? 28 IMPRINT AUTHOR IMPRINT Tetiana Kostiuchenko, PhD, Senior Lecturer of Sociology Department, NaUKMA; Research Expert for Info Sapiens Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung| Representation in Ukraine 15A, Borysoglibska Street, Kyiv 04070 Ukraine Sergiy Gerasymchuk, Deputy Executive Director, Regional Initiatives and Neighborhood Program Director, Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism Responsible: Felix Hett| Resident Representative for Ukraine Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Mariia Koval-Honchar, Project Coordinator, Representation of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Ukraine Tel:+38(044) 234 0038| Fax:+38(044) 451 4031 http://ukraine.fes.de/ To order a publication, contact us at ukraine@fes.de Commercial use of all media published by the FriedrichEbert-Stiftung(FES) is not permitted without the written consent of the FES. REPRESENTATION OF THE FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG IN UKRAINE The Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung is a political foundation headquartered in Germany. Our activities are focused on the key ideas and values of social democracy: freedom, justice and solidarity. Our international cooperation is facilitated by a network of representative offices in over 100 countries around the world. Our efforts are aimed at supporting peaceful cooperation and human rights, providing assistance to the creation and consolidation of democratic institutions based on the principles of social justice and rule of law, such as free trade unions and strong civil society. We actively stand for a social, democratic and competitive Europe in the framework of European integration processes. Guided by these principles since its opening in 1996, the FES Representation in Kyiv has supported dialogue with Ukrainian partners on a wide range of issues such as sustainable democratic development and human safety. The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the FriedrichEbert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works. FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – TOO LITTLE, TOO SLOW. WHY EMPLOYEES IN GEORGIA, MOLDOVA, AND UKRAINE DO NOT BENEFIT FROM THE EU ASSOCIATION AGREEMENTS UKRAINE AND CENTRAL EUROPE: ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS Ò This report sums up the result of an opinion poll conducted in Ukraine and 7 countries of Central Europe in October 2022. Ò The top three countries with a very or rather positive attitude towards Ukraine before the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and now remain the same: Moldova, Lithuania, and Poland. The positive perception of Ukraine has increased in Lithuania (74% vs. 62% before) and Poland (61% vs. 53% before), while it has decreased in Moldova(62% vs. 71% before). Ò More than half of the respondents in every surveyed country agreed that Ukraine should eventually become a full member of the EU. In most countries, a similar percentage is shown for NATO. 30