Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Exploring Grassroots Social and Political Realities Nazeer Mahar Tarik Malik

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Exploring Grassroots Social and Political Realities Nazeer Mahar Tarik Malik

Authors: Nazeer Mahar Tarik Malik Responsible: Dr. Jochen Hippler| Country Director Abdullah Dayo| Programme Coordinator Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung(FES), Pakistan Office Imprint © 2021 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung(FES), Pakistan Office 1st Floor, 66-W, Junaid Plaza, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, P.O Box 1289, Islamabad, Pakistan Phone:+92 51 2803391-4 Fax:+92 51 2803395 Website: http:/pakistan.fes.de Facebook: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Pakistan Twitter:@FES_PAK Cover Photo: Copyright Jochen Hippler To order publication: info@fes-pakistan.org Commercial use of all media published by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung(FES) is not permitted without the written consent of the FES. ISBN: 978-969-9675-34-8 The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

Preface Preface Social and political change are closely linked to each other. When society gets more educated, for instance, or when the middle classes are growing, this will change not just society, but also politics. It will change the atmosphere, public debates, and values, and, down the road, it will also change power relationships. What“democracy” means in a“feudal” society, in a society dominated by big business, or in one dominated by the middle classes, will differ considerably. And the spread of literacy or the rise of what we often call“social media” can have grave impact on society and politics alike. At the same time, social and political change can only be fully understood if we appreciate that they occur both at the national/provincial and at local levels. Here we are less concerned with the fact that they are also deeply embedded in global developments, because those are widely discussed anyway, in many countries. The local level of society and politics, on the other hand, is often ignored or not fully taken into account. It should not be forgotten, that even and changes. While national trends surely play an important role, so also do local conditions, local interests, and local power relationships. In Pakistan, more than in some other countries, local considerations play a big role in regard to both provincial and national elections and politics. The dialectics between national and local politics have not always been fully appreciated. Therefore, we are pleased to present the study at hand,“Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan- Exploring Social and Political Realities at the Grassroots”. Researched and written by Nazeer Mahar and Tarik Malik for The Research Initiative(TRI), an old partner of FES, it explores basic trends of social change in Pakistan, e.g. demography, level of education, and media use, and then looks at four local areas, Lyari(in Karachi), Nankana(in Central Punjab), Multan(Southern Punjab), and Larkana(Northern Sindh). These CHANGESÒ AREÒ µNALLYÒ LINKEDÒ TOÒ LOCALÒ ELECTIONSÒ WHICHÒ ALLOWÒ TOÒ BETTERÒ understand the restructuring of the party system on the national level. The i

List of Acronyms Acronyms CEDAW CM CNIC CWS DNA ECP FAFEN FES FGD FM FY GDA GE HDI ICT IJI JI JUI JUP KII KP LFO MJUP MMA MNA Convention on Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women Chief Minister Computerized National Identity Card Church World Service- Afghanistan/Pakistan Deoxyribonucleic acid Election Commission of Pakistan Free and Fair Election Network Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Focus Group Discussion Frequency Modulation Financial Year Grand Democratic Alliance General Elections Human Development Index Islamabad Capital Territory Islami Jamhoori Itehad Jamat-e-Islami Jamiat-Ulama-e-Islam Jamiat-Ulama-e-Pakistan Key Informant Interviews Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Legal Framework Order Markazi Jameat-Ulama-e-Pakistan Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal Member National Assembly vii

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan MPA MQM NA PA PAK PB PCSW PDA PIF PKR PML PMLQ PNA PPP PS PSDP PSP PTI ST SUV TB TLP TRI UAE UK UNDP USA Member Provincial Assembly Mutahida Qaumi Movement National Assembly Provincial Assembly Pakistan Petabyte Punjab Commission For Status Of Women Peoples Democratic Alliance Pakistan Islamic Front Pakistan Rupee Pakistan Muslim League Pakistan Muslim League Qayyum/Pakistan Muslim LeagueQuaid Pakistan National Alliance Pakistan Peoples Party Provincial Assembly of Sindh Public Service Development Program Pak Sarzameen Party Pakistan Tehreek-i- Insaf Sunni Tehreek Sports Utility Vehicle Terabyte Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan The Research Initiative United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United Nations Development Programme United States of America viii

Introduction 1. Introduction 1.1. Social and political context and social changes. Increasing urbanization, rising young population, digital empowerment, sectoral shifts in economy, changing class composition, increasing religiosity, and emergence of new political actors are increasingly impacting the power dynamics, and political choices and outcomes. The Green Revolution of the 1960s, Gulf migrations of the 1970s and 1980s, incremental urbanization, youth bulge and the proliferation of digital technologies have transformed the social and political order by challenging the hegemony of the traditional elite that used to wield power at various levels in social and political hierarchy. In the 2018 elections, Pakistan’s political landscape was transformed beyond recognition. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf(PTI) has put an end to 30-year duopoly of the Muslim League factions and the Pakistan Peoples Party(PPP) in the electoral arena by nearly doubling its votes between 2013 and 2018. The PTI’s rise in popularity neatly coincided with the decline in vote share for both the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz(PML-N). Nearly three years later in 2021, there is a reversal of sorts happening in the electoral arena. As of May, 2021, PML-N has won all of the by-elections held in Punjab and one election in KP. Likewise, PPP has won all the bye elections in Sindh including one NA seat vacated by PTI incumbent in Karachi. Opposition parties’ overwhelming success in the by-polls indicates a growing disenchantment of the electorate with the incumbent governments at federal and provincial levels. While the PTI clearly remains a strong political contender, the results of about a dozen by-polls have thrown open the fate of next elections. Combine this with the fast changing demographics in the country, and predicting the outcome of any elections becomes even trickier. 1

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Most research on the electoral politics tends to follow the national and PROVINCIALÒTRENDSÒWHICHÒDOÒNOTÒSUFµCIENTLYÒCAPTUREÒTHEÒCOMPLEXITYÒOFÒNUANCEDÒ behavior of a voter in a rural or a semi-urban locality. Nor do the political parties and policy makers in the government adequately zero-in on it. As a result, the evidence base of policies- focusing only on the national or provincial level indicators, and believing the generalized and exaggerated reality perceived from an urban lens-- remains narrow, and therefore UNRE¹ECTIVEÒOFÒAÒDEEPERÒUNDERSTANDINGÒOFÒTHEÒISSUESÒANDÒCHANGINGÒTRENDSÒATÒ the micro level. of social, demographic and power dynamics operating in rural/semi-urban context and delineate any variations from the broad national trends. Another objective of this research is to inform the policy making process of the constraints, take a piecemeal view of the development needs and aspirations of the citizens. Keeping in view these objectives, The Research Initiative(TRI) studied the changing social and political trends; contours of power dynamics and responsiveness of the political parties. 1.2. Scope First, the study looks at a range of variables including, but not limited to education, digital empowerment, class, employment, urbanization, gender and religiosity to assess as to how are the ideological and political trends shaped at the micro level, mainly in the rural or semi-urban context of Punjab and Sindh provinces. Second, it tries to determine changing group/class dynamics at the grassroots level. The study particularly looks at the role of caste/biradari, vote bloc, development, patronage and religiosity in shaping political choices of individuals. Three, the study assesses the comparative political and electoral participation trends and voting behavior since the 1970 parties at the local level,(ii) how has it changed/not changed over the years, and(iii) impact of the changing trends on policies of the political parties besides the way the parties have responded to the changing trends. Five, the study explores as to how the local dynamics inform the national level political and ideological trends as well as the policy framework. 2

Introduction 1.3. Questions of the study +EEPINGÒ INÒ VIEWÒ THEÒ SCOPEÒ OFÒ THEÒ STUDYÒ THEÒ FOLLOWINGÒ µVEÒ QUESTIONSÒ HAVEÒ been formulated. 1) How do power dynamics impact the political decision making at local level and more broadly equitable access to upward mobility at macro  es of Punjab and Sindh? 2) How have digital empowerment and urbanization impacted/not impacted the patterns of local politics? 3) How are religiosity and conservatism shaping political and ideological  roots in rural and semi-urban locations in Punjab and Sindh? 4) What is the current state of political parties at the local level? How have the local dynamics informed the national level political and ideological trends as well as the policy framework of political parties? 5) Has the representational and electoral politics, during the recent years, corresponded with and articulated the aspirations of the new social classes and demographic dynamics witnessed at local level? Or has it lagged behind the new realities? These questions cover power dynamics and its impact on politics, digital empowerment, religiosity and conservatism, role of political parties and responsiveness of representative politics to social and demographic changes. We have tried to focus on these questions while applying all the instruments i.e. literature review, Key Informant Interviews(KIIs) and Focus Group Discussions(FGDs). 1.4. Methodology and limitations The study reviewed existing literature and primary data on social and demographic changes, electoral politics and voting behavior in Pakistan and the mechanics of political parties’ policy formulation. To dig deeper into the local dynamics, focus group discussions and interviews with Key Informants -- drawn from local political and social leadership including village elders and biradari/caste chiefs – were held. 3

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan This study is mainly based on qualitative data. However, during the course of the study, the absence of the corresponding quantitative data generated research team considers that an authentic, periodic and updated quantitative data on social, demographic, political and ideological patterns of Pakistani population is not only a substantial source of information but it also helps triangulate the information collected through qualitative methods. Besides, the state of authentic quantitative data in Pakistan is not very enviable. The national decennial census was delayed by thirteen years; the 1998 census was also delayed by seven years. Likewise, surveys on social and DEMOGRAPHICÒINDICATORSÒRE¹ECTINGÒTHEÒOPINIONSÒANDÒNEEDSÒOFÒTHEÒMARGINALIZEDÒ groups and regions are almost non-existent. 1.5. Case selection The study focused on four rural and semi-urban constituencies from the provinces of Punjab and Sindh. In the process, four case studies – two from each province – have been developed. For the purpose, the study FOLLOWEDÒ THEÒ GEOGRAPHICÒ REGIONSÒ ASÒ DEµNEDÒ BYÒ'ALLUPÒ 0AKISTANÒ ANDÒ PICKEDÒ one constituency each from central Punjab, south Punjab, north Sindh and Karachi region. The two constituencies in the Punjab province are: National Assembly constituency NA-118 in Nankana district in central Punjab and National Assembly constituency NA- 154 in Multan district in south Punjab. Nankana ISÒ AÒ HETEROGENEOUSÒ LANDÒ HOUSINGÒ AÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ 3IKHÒ)TÒ HASÒ AÒ SPECIALÒ SIGNIµCANCEÒ AMONGÒ THEÒ 3IKHÒ COMMUNITYÒ ASÒ THEÒ BIRTH PLACEÒ OFÒ"ABAÒ 'URUÒ THEÒ FOUNDERÒ OFÒ 3IKHÒ 4HISÒ CONSTITUENCYÒ QUALIµEDÒ ASÒ AÒ case study from the central Punjab, an otherwise single largest region that DETERMINESÒTHEÒFATEÒOFÒTHEÒPOLITICALÒPARTIESÒVYINGÒFORÒTHEÒHIGHESTÒOFµCEÒINÒTHEÒ land, for the following reasons: 1) Tahreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan(TLP) secured the highest number of votes in this constituency. 2) No party has won more than one election here since 2002. The focus of the case study was to i) explain the rise of TLP phenomenon and assess whether it was sustainable ii) explore factors that helped PTI’s WINÒFORÒTHEÒµRSTÒTIMEÒINÒTHISÒCONSTITUENCYÒANDÒIII ÒµNDÒOUTÒWHETHERÒ000ÒWASÒ permanently irrelevant in the politics of central Punjab. 4

Introduction NA-154 Multan, a key constituency in south Punjab region, was selected for the following reasons: 1) The usual monopoly of a feudal and a custodian of a shrine broke for 1% in 2002 to 19% in 2013 to 34% of votes in 2018, breaking the old modes of politics here. 2) This is one of the rare pockets in southern Punjab where PPP still holds ground. It has polled 1% more votes in 2018 elections than in the previous one. The focus on this constituency helps to throw light on the dynamics of a a phenomenon prevalent across most parts of the Punjab province. NA-246 located in Lyari, Karachi South District was chosen for the following reasons: 1) 000ÒLOSTÒTHEÒ.ATIONALÒ!SSEMBLYÒSEATÒINÒ,YARIÒFORÒTHEÒVERYÒµRSTÒTIMEÒSINCEÒ the 1970 elections. 2) The two provincial assembly seats in the same constituency were won by the religious parties – Mutahida Majlis e Amal(MMA) and TLP. The case study attempts to explore the causes of the PPP and Mutahida 1OUMIÒ-OVEMENTÒ Ò DEFEATÒ ANDÒ AÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ WINÒ FORÒ RELIGIO POLITICALÒ parties and tries to establish whether it was a one-time phenomenon or new political players such as PTI and TLP could repeat their 2018 performance in the next elections. The lessons from the constituency also offer us some insights into dynamics playing into the politics of Karachi. In north Sindh, provincial assembly constituency PS-11, a provincial constituency in Larkana district, was chosen as Larkana, the hometown of 000Ò FOUNDERÒ:ULµKARÒ!LIÒ"HUTTOÒ ANDÒ AÒ TRADITIONALÒ STRONGHOLDÒ OFÒ THEÒ handed the PPP two consecutive defeats. The case study, while focusing on of a changing voting behavior in the province. 5

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan 1.6. Structure of the study #HAPTERÒ ONEÒ OFÒ THEÒ STUDYÒ BRIE¹YÒ EXPLAINSÒ THEÒ SOCIALÒ ANDÒ POLITICALÒ methodology and limitations, scope and questions of the research study. Chapter two basing its analysis on extensive literature review gives a macro picture of the major social and demographic determinants, which potentially shape the politics. Chapter three provides an analysis of the contours and drivers of power dynamics at macro level. Chapters four to seven give a detailed analysis of social, political and power dynamics at the local level. The analysis is based on KIIs and FGDs conducted in four rural and semi-urban constituencies in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh. Chapter eight provides CONCLUSIONSÒ DEDUCEDÒ FROMÒ THEÒ µNDINGSÒ OFÒ FOURÒ CASEÒ STUDIESÒ ANDÒ LITERATUREÒ review. 6

Social and demographic determinants of politics 2. Social and demographic determinants of politics For necessary context, this chapter deals with seven basic social and demographic variables – education, digital empowerment and media, urbanization, employment trends, gender and religiosity– showing how and to what extent the changes under these heads have or have not impacted the political trends and electoral outcomes in the recent elections. 2.1. Education: Electoral disengagement and discontent Pakistan has glaring educational disparities based on gender, socio-economic status and geographic location. With Human Development Index(HDI) value of 0.557, Pakistan sits at 154 out of 189 countries in the United Nations Development Program(UNDP) ranking. 1 Its overall literacy rate is 57% 2 which is way behind its neighboring countries. The primary school dropout rate is 22.7% 3 which is 3rd highest in the region after Bangladesh and Nepal. Pakistan also has the world’s second-highest number of out-of-school children. Over 22 million of Pakistan’s 77 million children of school-going age (5-16 years) remain out of school. 4 While enrollment and retention rates have been improving slowly, the provision of good quality basic education for all remains a distant dream. 5 The literacy rate in urban areas is higher(74%) than in the rural areas(51%). 6 The chronic disparity between male and female literacy rate remains at 22%  5.$0Ò(UMANÒ$EVELOPMENTÒ INDICATORSÒ (accessed Jan15, 2021) 2. Pakistan Economic Survey, 2019-20 p.197 3. Ibid p.198 4. Unicef. Giving every child the right to education. https://www.unicef.org/pakistan/ education(accessed Jan 18, 2021) 5. Muhammad Ali, Syed, Pakistani Children’s Right to Education,(2020). Express Tribune. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2267549/pakistani-childrens-right-to-education(accessed Dec 21, 2020) 6. Ibid 7

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan at the national level. While in the urban areas this difference is narrower(13 percentage points), in the rural areas it widens up to 27 percentage points. 7 Among the provinces Punjab has the highest literacy rate with 64% followed by Sindh with 57%. In rural Punjab a male is 15% less likely to be educated than any male living in urban Punjab. A Punjabi rural woman is 20% less likely to have an access to education than her male counterpart and 26% less likely to get an education as opposed to a woman living in the urban Punjab. 8 Surprisingly though, in Punjab the ratio of girls in higher education Of over 1.1 million enrolments in the province, girls’ enrolment accounts for 57%. For bachelors and masters this ratio goes up to 70% and 75% respectively 9 . In Sindh province the disparity between the rural and urban males is more pronounced as the difference goes up to 24%. Gender disparity patterns in the Sindh province put women at a further disadvantage. In rural Sindh female literacy is as low as 21% as opposed to 55% for the male. A Sindhi rural woman has nearly half as much a chance at getting an education as an urban Sindhi woman. Table 1: Literacy rate( 10yrs and above) Pakistan- 2018-19 Area Male Female Pakistan 71 49 Rural 65 38 Urban 80 67 Punjab 73 57 Rural 67 47 Urban 82 73 Sindh 68 44 Rural 55 21 Urban 79 64 Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2019-20 Total 60 51 74 64 57 77 57 39 72 7. Ibid 8. Ibid 9. Punjab Development statistics 2017, Bureau of Statistics. Punjab, Lahore. P.138 8

Social and demographic determinants of politics Table 2: Ratio of boys and girls in higher education in Punjab Study Group Total Boys(%) Girls(%) Total 1,186,281 43 57 Intermediate Classes 878,266 46.8 53.2 Pre-Medical 215,403 35 65 Pre-Engineering 167,166 69 31 Computer Science 130,795 55 45 Humanities 305,637 38 62 Degree Classes 221,416 30 70 Post Graduate Classes 27,784 25 75 Source:- Punjab Development statistics 2017, Bureau of Statistics. Punjab, Lahore. The relationship between education and voting is more nuanced: While education is a vital variable when it comes to political and electoral  ITÒ ISÒ NEVERÒ BYÒ ITSELFÒ AÒ SUFµCIENTÒ CONDITIONÒ TOÒ JUDGEÒ WHETHERÒ AÒ certain level of education has caused the voter turnout to go up or down in any region or a country. It is the type and length of education besides other factors such as income, rural-urban dynamic, quality of democracy, mobilization, partisanship, knowledge of and ease of access to voting processes that affect a person’s decision to whether and how to vote. The educated voter is disillusioned with democratic institutions: In Pakistan’s case, there is an inverse correlation between increased literacy rate and voter turnout. The country’s literacy rate in 1972 was 21.7% 10 whereas the 1970 elections witnessed the highest turnout of 61%. In the following elections(held between 1988 and 2008) when literacy was growing the voter turnout hovered around the 30s and 40s. Post 1997 while this trend witnessed a rise, it never crossed 55%(2013 elections). While the quality and level of engagement in advanced and consolidating democracies suggest that education increases political participation, it can also do the opposite when the educated feel that their participation in the electoral process was futile. 11 10. Roof, David J: Problems of Common Interest: The Shaping of Education in Pakistan, 19702014(2015) p.38 http://www.jespk.net/publications/220.pdf(accessed Jan 10, 2021) 11. Kevin, Croke, Deliberate Disengagement: How Education Can Decrease Political Participation in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes, Cambridge University Press,(2016) https:// 9

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan  WITHÒ AÒ SIGNIµCANTLYÒ HIGHERÒ LITERACYÒ RATEÒ THANÒ THEÒ NATIONALÒ posted 12% lower turnout in 2018 elections as people were found to be INDIFFERENTÒDUEÒTOÒTHEÒNON LEVELÒPOLITICALÒµELDÒANDÒPOORÒPERFORMANCEÒOFÒTHEÒ political parties. 2.2. Digital transformation: Access, accountability and polarization Almost 85% of Pakistanis have cellular connections. Between June 2019 and February 2020 alone, the number of cellular subscribers rose from 161 million to 168.9 million registering a growth of 5.9%. 12 People are increasingly reliant on mobile technologies for their everyday transactions. In 2019 there were over 1,309 million annual mobile banking transactions(3.6 million per day) with an annual volume of over PKR 4.5 trillion. 13 Broadband connections stand at 101million. 14 Data usage over broadband networks was 2,545 Petabyte(PB) 15 for Financial Year(FY) 2018-19 up from 1, 207 PB in FY 2017-18 showing a growth of 113%. 16 Digital media and politics: Political parties, sensing the opportunity, during the 2018 elections, ran targeted campaigns sending out text and robocalls 17 to the people. Parties across the political spectrum made use of online platforms such as facebook and twitter to amplify their campaign messages. Digital technologies also have proved an equalizer as when certain political parties’ coverage was censored by the mainstream media, they still managed to reach out to the electorate through social media. 12. Pakistan Telecommunication Authority https://www.pta.gov.pk/en/telecom-indicators (accessed May 9, 2021) 13. Ibid 14. Ibid 15. A petabyte(PB) is a unit of digital information storage used to denote the size of data. It is equivalent to 1,024 terabytes or 1,000,000,000,000,000 bytes. https://www.techopedia.  PB 16. Pakistan Telecommunication Authority https://www.pta.gov.pk/en/telecom-indicators( accessed May 9, 2021 17. Automated telephone calls which deliver a recorded message, typically on behalf of a political party or telemarketing company. 10

Social and demographic determinants of politics A digitally empowered boy in Sanghar holds governments accountable A grade-one, eight-year old boy in a small village in Sindh province stands waist-deep in a contaminated pool of water. A dead rooster hangs from the crook of his left arm. The boy, staring into a handheld mobile phone camera, blurts out an impassioned few lines to the political elite of the country, naming and shaming them for failing to come to their rescue: him and his other fellow villagers who were forced out of their homes due to rain-induced The boy’s name is Ahmed Marri 18 who claims that three of his four roosters have died of consuming contaminated water. He says humans and livestock too shall die if the government did not come to their help. In a practiced fashion, he takes a dig at the Prime Minister Imran Khan for failing to deliver the‘new Pakistan’ that he had promised as part of his election campaign. Ahmed taunts if this was‘new’ Pakistan where people of his village were left to fend for themselves then they were better off with the‘old’ Pakistan. A member of National Assembly Shazia  ÒFROMÒTHEÒAREAÒCONµRMEDÒINÒAÒTWEETÒLATERÒTHATÒ nearly 200,000 people were displaced in Sanghar district due to The one-minute video clip that we later knew was scripted ANDÒ µLMEDÒ BYÒ!HMEDgSÒ WENTÒ VIRALÒ ANDÒ WITHINÒ DAYSÒ not only was Ahmed a social media celebrity, as media crew lined up to interview the eight-year-old activist; military personnel, representatives of various political parties reached out to Ahmed and handed him food-items and other gifts. Ahmed beamed in another video as he received roosters from a political party. 19 18. Samoon, Hanif. Help, my rooster is dead: eight-year-old raises Sindh’s contaminated water problem.(2020).Samaa TV. https://www.samaa.tv/news/pakistan/2020/09/sindhcontaminated-water/(accessed Dec 21, 2020) 19. Samoon, Hanif. Family of eight-year-old Sanghar boy Ahmed Marri gets relief goods (2020). Samaa TV. https://www.samaa.tv/news/pakistan/2020/09/family-of-eight-year-oldsanghar-boy-ahmed-marri-gets-relief-goods/(accessed Dec 21, 2020) 11

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Ahmed and his father pledged to continue to highlight the issues of their village. While this episode might soon be forgotten, it highlights one incremental revolution that has taken place in this country, ie: moderately priced, camera-supported and 3G/4G enabled smart handheld phones. What Ahmed, thanks to technology, could achieve today was almost unthinkable only a few years ago. Ahmed’s video clip highlights the deep disconnect that exists between the people and the political parties. There is a perception gap between what a common person feels their issues are and what the political parties deem they are. Nevertheless this new ‘middle class’ that is connected to the globe via the internet is 20 Increasing political and ideological polarization: Pakistan has many ethnicities, religions and sects and political views at times bordering on extremes. While these clashing worldviews already existed, these have been brought to the fore by the digital media. Micro-blogging platform – twitter – which until a few years ago was solely used by the upper-middle class and English-educated urbanites has become a battleground of competing narratives just as the various groups found it to be a useful tool to amplify their message. Every day it is either the various political interest groups or the religious organization which dominate the top trends on the microblogging platform. Furthermore, digital technology has also transformed how the media is consumed in our society. Shift in media consumption patterns: Pakistan’s media landscape has EXPERIENCEDÒ MUSHROOMÒ GROWTHÒ SINCEÒ THEÒ µRSTÒ DECADEÒ OFÒ THEÒ st century. It went from a single state-owned television channel, a radio channel and an odd private FM radio to allowing the private sector to enter the fray en masse. Media industry has grown, in the last decade, with a cumulative investment of approximately$4-5 billion. The sector is believed to be 20. New Perspectives in Pakistan’s Political Economy: State, Class and Social Change.(2019). edited by Matthew McCartney and S. Akbar Zaidi p.71 12

Social and demographic determinants of politics providing employment to more than 300,000 people. There are some two dozen news TV channels running transmissions in Urdu and other national languages. For all their round-the-clock news cycle, a Gallup Pakistan Exit opinion-making. %VERYÒFOURÒINÒµVEÒPERSONSÒQUESTIONEDÒSAIDÒTHEÒ46ÒCAMPAIGNSÒDIDÒNOTÒCHANGEÒ their choice of vote whereas only 18% said their views did change. Mainstream media censorship pushes audiences towards digital platforms: Arbitrary as well as self-censorship has brought down quality of programming triggering a crisis of credibility. Media is controlled by a‘mutually accommodating troika’ of military, commercial interests and the middle classes from Punjab and urban Sindh (from among the top 100 columnists and anchors more than 50 are from Punjab; one-third are Urdu-speaking). 21 The media content is overwhelmingly dictated by the state institutions,’ 22 and media self-censors any content that Censorship and layoffs of journalists have triggered growth of online TV channels. These ventures are gaining traction with viewers both for their bold content and easy access via cellular devices which attract three-fourths social media users most of whom access the internet via the cell phone. Advertisers too are increasingly moving towards the online platforms. In the µSCALÒ YEARÒ ALTHOUGHÒ OUTÒ OFÒ OVERÒ 0+2Ò BILLIONÒ WORTHÒ OFÒ MEDIAÒ market, 46% went to electronic media, this was 2% less than the previous year resulting in a net loss of PKR 4 billion for TV media. During the same period, the volume of digital marketing increased by PKR 2.5 billion. 23 21. New Perspectives in Pakistan’s Political Economy: State, Class and Social Change.(2019), edited by Matthew McCartney and S. Akbar Zaidi p. 251 22. Ibid p.248 23. Freedom Network. Media market: Money and control. https://pakistan.mom-rsf.org/en/ 13

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan This gradual yet certain variation in media consumption suggests that the media’s future is digital and it is only a matter of time before the electronic media collapses under its own weight. Digital media, although fraught with pitfalls in the absence of the institution of gatekeeping, is the future favored destination of a news consumer, hence a space to watch out for. 2.3. Urbanization: Increased demand for service delivery At an annual rate of 3.06%, Pakistan is the fastest urbanizing country in South Asia with a total projected population of 335 million by 2050. 24 Consequently it is experiencing the growth of urban centers. Pakistan’s 10 largest cities have a population of 41 million,(which have grown by 71% over the past 19 years) which is 20% of the total population. 25 About 50% of the population is projected to be urban in 2030. 26 Historically, there are six major migrations from rural to urban centers. 1) As a result of Partition, 4.7 million Hindus and Sikhs left for India whereas 6.7 million Muslims came into Pakistan. Poor refugee families occupied homes abandoned by the outgoing population and open spaces were turned into squatter settlements. These settlements only expanded with time and became a permanent feature of Pakistan’s urban landscape. 27 2) Rural landless moved from villages to towns and cities for better wages, health, sanitation, education facilities and comparative social freedom. As for Sindh, robberies, water shortage and a freeze on government jobs pushed Sindhi labor and youth to move to urban centers. 28 3) As a result of the Afghan war some 3.7 million Afghans were in Pakistan by 1992. Most of them moved to the urban centers; Karachi alone received an estimated 600, 000 Afghan refugees. 29 24. Mustafa Daanish et al: Urbanisation and Political Change in Pakistan: Exploring the (accessed March 5, 2021) Daily Dawn. 25. https://www.dawn.com/news/1354653(accessed Dec 22, 2020) 26. Mustafa Daanish et al: Urbanisation and Political Change in Pakistan: Exploring the KNOWNÒ (accessed March 5, 2021) 27. Ibid p.1296-1300 28. Ibid 29. Ibid 14

Social and demographic determinants of politics 4) Military operations in the erstwhile FATA forced hundreds of thousands of youth to move to the urban centers. 5) Invisible yet pervasive state repression against ethnic peripheries-- the Baloch and Pakhtuns-- has compelled workers, students and small businesspeople to migrate in their millions to urban centers across Pakistan. 30 6) 4HEÒ ¹OODSÒ FORCEDÒ MANYÒ 3INDHISÒ ANDÒ 3ERAIKISÒ TOÒ MIGRATEÒ INÒ unprecedented numbers to Karachi. 31 Urbanization and its attendant vertical social mobility and increased and DIVERSIµEDÒ FORMALÒ LABORÒ FORCEÒ PARTICIPATIONÒ AREÒ LIKELYÒ TOÒ CHANGEÒ THEÒ POLITICALÒ behavior. While vertical patronage networks in the urban areas – manned by labor contractors, traders, business and bureaucratic elites- can continue to lord over dispensation of patronage to the urban poor, the educated urban youth shall increasingly demand better service delivery in return for their electoral favors. 32 2.4. Employment trends: Modernizing of economy to the exclusion of youth and woman An overwhelming 61.4% of people in Pakistan fall in the 15-64 age-group which makes it the 9 th largest labor force with 1.94% growth rate which means 2.5 million new jobs are needed every year. Our existing workforce is 65.5 million. 33 Agriculture Sector: The labor force participation ratio for the year 201718 in the agriculture sector was 51.9% of which men are 81.1% whereas women are 22.8%, just a little over one-fourth of the men’s ratio. For the Punjab province, the labor force participation ratio is 55.1%; men are 82% whereas women are 29.6%. For the Sindh province, it is 50%; men are 81.1 % whereas women are 14%. Share of the agriculture sector in employment is 37.4%; of which men make 29.6%. This sector has been heavily tilted in favor of women(66.1%). The agriculture sector in the Punjab province accounts for 39% of the economy, accommodating 29% of male and 66.3 30. Khan, Mubarak Zeb. 20pc of Pakistanis live in 10 cities, census reveals.(2017). Daily Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/news/1597719/circle-of-dissent(accessed Dec 25, 2020) 31. Ibid 32. Akhtar, Aasim Sajjad. Circle of dissent.(2020). Daily Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/ news/1597719/circle-of-dissent(accessed Dec 25, 2020) 33. Pakistan Labour Survey, 2017-18 p.24 15

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan % of female population. The Sindh province’s agriculture contributes 35.8% to its economy; employing 31.9% of men and 64.1% of women. In the last one decade this share in national employment has decreased by 5% and the trend is likely to continue. The surplus pool of 5% has gone to the industrial sector which has progressed from 21% to 24% in the last decade whereas the remaining 2% went to the services sector. 34 Industrial Sector ’s share in employment is 24% with men at 26% while women at 16.6%. In the province of Punjab this ratio is 25%; where the male share is 28% and the female share is 17%. In Sindh province, the industrial share is 22.2% with men claiming 23% share and women 16.2%. Services Sector which has a share of 38.6% in employment is again skewed in favor of men who have 44.7% while women have 17.3% of the share. This sector in the Punjab province has a share of 35.9%; 43% men and 16.7% women. As for Sindh province the sector’s share stands at 42%; of which men claim 45.1% whereas women 19.7%. The overall share of informal employment(in manufacturing and services) remains at 71% of the total labor force. Such work is mostly located in urban areas and is outside of the remit of extant labor regulation and employmentbased social protection. Marginal increase in women employment ratio: According to the latest labor force survey, between 2008 and 2018, female labor force participation rate rose from 19% to 22.5%. However, this is still much lower compared to the world average of 39.2% as per the World Bank data of 2018. The female share of employment in senior middle management is merely 4.2%. 35 Some of the reasons that prevent women from entering the labor market include unfavorable social norms, restrictions on mobility, gender-based discrimination and sexual harassment, safety concerns, and all-consuming household duties. 36 34. Javed, Umair. Structural transformation.(2019). Daily Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/ news/1517346(accessed Dec 23, 2020) 35. UNDP Human Development Index 2019 p.336 36. Ali, Noor Anwar et al, Pakistan’s growth story.(2019).https://pakistangrowthstory. org/2019/10/16/women-want-to-work-and-employers-want-to-hire-women-where-isthe-disconnect/(accessed Dec 25, 2020) 16

Social and demographic determinants of politics Overseas workers: An estimated 11.11 million Pakistanis are registered as overseas employees. In 2019, the Bureau of Emigration& Overseas Employment 37 registered 625,203 persons for overseas employment as compared to 382,439 in 2018, showing an annual increase of 37%; 50% of these are from the Punjab province whereas just over 9% are from Sindh province. Saudi Arabia is the main destination for Pakistani workers where more than 53% of workers went followed by UAE(33.78%), Oman(4.54%), Qatar(3.09%), Malaysia(1.81%) and Bahrain(1.31%). Age-group with highest unemployment rate registers lowest voter turnout: The unemployment rate is 5.8%; 4.9% for men and 8.5% for women. The Punjab province has an unemployment rate of 5.7%; 5% for men and 7.7% for women. The Sindh province has a 5% unemployment rate; 4% for men and 11.8% for women. 38 At the national level,“[t]here are as many as 27 million‘idle’ or unemployed young people in Pakistan. One-quarter are young men, while most(threequarters) are young women.” 39 The highest unemployment(11.56%) is among the age bracket of 20-24 years, indicating youth unemployment. This is the age-group that showed low level of interest in voting in 2018 as the turnout among new voters was observed to be 22% which is a whopping 30% below the average turnout. 40 This also busts the myth that political parties were successful in mobilizing the youth during the cycle of the two previous elections. 37. Ò"UREAUÒ OFÒ%MIGRATIONÒ /VERSEASÒ%MPLOYMENTÒ reports/2019/2019-full.pdf p. 7-16 38. Ò"UREAUÒ OFÒ%MIGRATIONÒ /VERSEASÒ%MPLOYMENTÒ reports/2019/2019-full.pdf p.35 39. UNDP. Pakistan National Human Development Report 2020, p 77. 40. Gallup Pakistan. Pakistan’s11th GE Elections 2018, Who Voted for Whom and Wh.(2018). p.20 17

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Table 3: Key indicators of labor market in Pakistan/provinces Pakistan Punjab Labour Force participation ratio Combined 51.9 55.1 Male 81.1 82 Female 22.8 29.6 Share of agriculture in employment Combined 37.4 3% Male 29.6 29 Female 66.1 66.3 Share of industry in employment Combined 24 25 Male 26 28 Female 16.6 17 Share of services in employment Combined 38.6 35.9 Male 44.7 43 Female 17.3 16.7 Source: Pakistan Labour Survey 2017-18 Sindh 50 81.1 14 35.8 31.9 64.1 22.2 23 16.2 42 45.1 19.7 2.5. Religiosity: Paradox of piety and pragmatic politics Islam has been considered central to Pakistan’s existence which prides itself upon being a few rare states which were created in the name of religion. Unlike India, upon its creation the Muslim-majority Pakistan needed a new identity that could keep the two-part country- separated by over 1, 000 miles and riven with ethnic, linguistic and sectarian divisions- untied. Hence religion was employed for state and nation-building projects as a unifying force. Since the colonial India, liberal and religiously conservative world views HAVEÒEXISTEDÒSIDEÒBYÒSIDEÒANDÒAFTERÒTHEÒPARTITIONÒHAVEÒVIEDÒFORÒIN¹UENCEÒOVERÒ the state narrative and its apparatus. The conservative element succeeded in shaping the country in their image as it found fertile ground in the form of a society with strong undercurrents of conservatism. The religious right had foundational success in Objectives Resolution being passed by the µRSTÒ#ONSTITUENTÒ!SSEMBLYÒ WHICHÒ PROVIDEDÒ THEÒ GUIDINGÒ PRINCIPLESÒ ROOTEDÒ INÒ religion for the future constitution of Pakistan. Later in 1985 through the 18

Social and demographic determinants of politics 8 th amendment in the Constitution the Objective Resolution was made a substantive part of the constitution, making Islam an integral part of the state identity. Political class also found it expedient to adopt religious ethos in its rhetoric and outlook to garner electoral support. Not only that, as occasion demanded, they acquiesced to demands of the religious political parties. Pakistani state’s overwhelming reliance on religion since 1947 as a social and cultural adhesive as well as an instrument to govern an ethnically diverse country has always kept religion at the core of its functioning. However during the 1970s and 1980s certain developments exacerbated this trend. According to a 2017 Pew survey, 84% Muslims in Pakistan support Sharia ASÒ THEÒ OFµCIALÒ LAWÒ OFÒ THEÒ 41 In another Pew survey, an overwhelming 79% of voters 42 INÒ 0AKISTANÒ IDENTIµEDÒ THEMSELVESÒ ASÒ AÒ-USLIMÒ µRSTÒ ANDÒ AÒ CITIZENÒ LATERÒ WHICHÒ ISÒ SIGNIµCANTLYÒ HIGHERÒ THANÒ OTHERÒ MAJORÒ-USLIMÒ countries. As many as 48% of respondents said that Islam plays a very large or fairly large role in the political life of their country. Pakistanis who believe Islam’s political role is increasing are unanimous(94%) in thinking that this was a good thing. At the same time, most Pakistanis(69%) who saw Islam playing a lesser role in politics view this as bad for Pakistan. 43 These overwhelming numbers nonetheless sharply contrast with the humble numbers the religious political parties in Pakistan have been able to garner in the elections since 1970. Intriguingly, there are varying patterns of religiosity among the people . There is a cognitive dissonance in the middles class in general and among the middle class of 80s in particular, who while want to become better Muslims and practice Islamic rituals are partial to‘western’ lifestyle choices and cultural consumption patterns. While worship and religious festival attendance is on the rise, in private lives, there are non-linear trends. Religiosity is increasing among all segments of the society but this increase is more pronounced among the upwardly mobile lower/middle classes who while adopt certain aspects of religion such as Islamic banking, at the same time keep cultural consumption, gender 41. Ò Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/09/m uslims-andISLAM KEY µNDINGS IN THE U S AND AROUND THE 42. Ibid 43. Ibid 19

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan relations, or life choices such as free-will marriages not always informed by religious beliefs. 44 Shifts in social basis of military and civil bureaucracy: Over time, the AF¹UENTÒ CLASSESÒ HAVEÒ OPTEDÒ FORÒ MOREÒ LUCRATIVEÒ VOCATIONSÒ LEAVINGÒ THEÒ ONCEÒ MOSTÒSOUGHTÒAFTERÒMILITARYÒANDÒCIVILIANÒJOBSÒINÒTHEÒOFµCERÒCADREÒTOÒUPWARDLYÒ mobile lower middle classes. As social scientist Saeed Shafqat notes that the social class origins of key state institutions, i.e. the military and civil bureaucracy are undergoing change as the recruitment increasingly comes from the lower middle class rather than the upper middle class. Saeed observes that“the emerging elites authoritarian tendencies in society rather than democratic values.” 45 As for the military, Jamaat e Islami(JI) 46 and Tablighi Jamaat 47 were allowed inroads into the institution by General Zia. 48 This neatly coincided with the decade long war in Afghanistan after the 1979 Soviet invasion which further Moreover, in the mid1 980s, about 50 thousand personnel were deputed to Saudi Arabia besides deployment of additional technical support by former Air Force personnel to the United Arab Emirates. They were exposed to Wahabist interpretation of Islam during their stay in the Gulf Region. 49 For all the military’s direct and indirect role in Pakistan’s politics, its social composition of its cadres as well as its religious ethos shall have far reaching consequences for the political and ideological direction of the country. Besides repeated changes to the curriculum have increased religiosity. 44. Views expressed by a Key Informant in Lahore during an interview arranged by TRI( October 2020) 45. The Research Initiative. Decade of democracy in Pakistan.(2018). p 7 46. Established in August 1941, Jamaat e Islami is considered a leading religious political party of Pakistan. It has played a leading role in Islamization of constitutional and legal framework of the country. 47. Tablighi Jamaat(Party of Preachers)[ is a transnational Sunni Islamic missionary movement that focuses on exhorting Muslims to return to practicing their religion in its original form. 48. Fair, Christine. Armed Forces& Society. Vol. 38, No. 3(July 2012), p 447. https://www. jstor.org/stable/48608975?read-now=1&refreqid=excelsior%3A8643a3add2b11d0ae7a8 49. Ibid, p 448 20

Social and demographic determinants of politics Middle East-returned Conservative middle class: In the 1970s and 80s millions of laborers went to the Middle East. Remittances not only increased consumption, their families moved to towns to access education and other facilities. These people imported Wahabi interpretations of Islam and adopted overt religious symbolism – beards, hijabs – and are keener on observing religious rituals. Overseas workers, during the 80s, of these new upwardly mobile families while returned healthy remittances, also imported the Wahabi brand of Islam. Electronic media has regular presence of religious scholars on their TV shows. 50 Urban youth are more prone to conservatism: Against the common perception that cosmopolitanism breeds liberal outlook, the increase in urbanization and education in Pakistan has witnessed a corresponding increase in conservatism. Urban Islam is observed to be more puritanical and textual where rural Islam as more ritualistic. 51 In a fast-urbanizing Pakistan, a British Council survey focusing youth reveals it to be“a deeply conservative generation” as nearly two-thirds of men and women across the urban-rural divide prefer to call themselves as religious or conservative. 52 Paradox of social conservatism and political moderation: The middle class conservatism does not translate into electoral outcomes for the religious parties. Support for religious political parties happens only when there is a vacuum(such as in 2002 elections) or when there is an emotive religious issue as in the case of TLP before and around 2018 elections. While religious political parties raise moral questions, voters consider various pragmatic things alongside the moral question while deciding on their vote. There are always a small number of one-issue voters as we witnessed in the case of ‘blasphemy’ issue in 2018 elections. 53 50. Maqsood, Ammara. The New Pakistani Middle Class. Harvard University Press.(2017). p 8. 51. Fair, Christine. Armed Forces& Society. Vol. 38, No. 3(July 2012), p 444. https://www. jstor.org/stable/48608975?read-now=1&refreqid=excelsior%3A8643a3add2b11d0ae7a8 52. Next generation goes to the ballot box. 2013. British Council. https://www.britishcouncil. !PRÒ 2021) 53. Ibid 21

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan The increasingly socially conservative outlook among urban youth and middle classes tends to favor the right-of-the-center political parties such as the center-right PML-N and PTI. The socially conservative voter has also switched political allegiance from religious political parties to right of the center mainstream political parties WHICHÒ NOTÒ ONLYÒ RE¹ECTÒ SOCIALÒ CONSERVATISMÒ BYÒ APPEARINGÒ TOÒ PERPETUATEÒ the existing social forms, rituals, beliefs etc in their rhetoric, organization, appeal and outlook of their leadership but also offer a surer access to state patronage. 54 The previous seven elections have handed overwhelming victories to the PML .Ò INÒ URBANÒ)NÒ THEÒ THEÒ 04)Ò TOOKÒ AWAYÒ AÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ chunk of the conservative vote from PML-N. 55 While religious parties garner massive support from these middle classes on issues such as blasphemy, this support seldom translates into electoral victory for them. The middle class conservatism as witnessed during the Pakistan National Alliance(PNA) Movement and Lawyers’ Movement while may have the potential to bring down a government, it still has to prove it could replace one. 56 Shift from left-of-the-center to right-of-the-center: Ò Ò /VERÒ THEÒ LASTÒ µVEÒ decades the increased religiosity has translated into another gradual yet decisive shift; while in the 1970 elections electoral verdict was overwhelmingly in support of the left-of-the-center political parties, in the 2018 elections it is the right-of- center parties that dominate the legislative bodies. 2.6. Gender: The politics of exclusion The electoral arena is heavily skewed in favor of men as representatives, in leadership positions and on electoral rolls. 57 This gap is visible in almost all indicators of female political participation in Pakistan including electoral rolls, voter turnout, representation on general seats and committee chairs. 54. Next generation goes to the ballot box. 2013. British Council. https://www.britishcouncil.pk/ 55. Views expressed by a Key Informant in Lahore during an interview arranged by TRI( October 2020) 56. Ibid 57. Pakistan’s Political Parties, Surviving between Dictatorship and Democracy( 2020), edited by Marium Mufti et al p.197 22

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan elections day to cast their votes as compared to 47% of registered women voters. 62 In terms of regional variations, Punjab and Sindh had a voter turnout gap of about 8% between men and women. 63 While countrywide there was a 10% gap between the male and female voters, Punjab did better on this count as the difference was 7%. South Punjab did slightly better(6%) than central Punjab(7%). 64 In Sindh the gender wise voting gap was 8% but when Karachi is looked at separately, the gap widens to 11%. Figure 1: Gender gap in voting in 2018 elections Source: ECP Women are treated as part of the bargain: Women DOÒ NOTÒ µGUREÒ INÒ any political party’s calculations at the time of canvassing, mobilizing as well as any rare consultations for the development schemes in any given constituency. One possible reason put forward for this is that since party organizers are overwhelmingly male, they hesitate to interact with women voters. Also culturally women are understood to be part of the bargain i.e. if a male voter of a family was convinced, it is understood that female voters will automatically follow the lead. 65 Women’s legislative representation and contribution in legislative business: Since the creation of Pakistan, the status of women political 62. Fafen’s Election Observation Report: Voter Turnout in GE 2018.(2018) https://fafen. org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/FAFEN%E2%80%99S-Analysis-of-Voter-Turnout-inGE-2018.pdf accessed May 15, 2021) 63. Ibid 64. Ibid 65. Waseem, Muhammad et al. Political Parties in Pakistan(2012) p.25 24

Social and demographic determinants of politics participation has gone through many highs and lows. There was a noticeable increase in women’s political representation between 1985 and 1990. 66 “This improvement can be attributed to the start of a powerful women’s rights movement in Pakistan and the historical elections of 1988, as a result of in the Muslim world. Nevertheless, the momentum was disrupted in 1990 as a result of a constitutional leave of women reserved seats. The number of women in parliament drastically reduced in 1990 and remained immensely low until 2002.” 67 Before the elections in October 2002, major amendments were made to the 1973 Constitution in the form of the‘Legal Framework Order(LFO) 2002’ and which was made part of 17th Constitutional Amendment in 2003. From 1990-2002, two major factors contributed to opening a new avenue FORÒ WOMENgSÒ POLITICALÒ Ò 0AKISTANÒ RATIµCATIONÒ OFÒ THEÒ#%$!7Ò INÒ WHICHÒ OBLIGATEDÒ ITÒ TOÒ TAKEÒ AFµRMATIVEÒ ACTIONÒ TOÒ IMPROVEÒ WOMENgSÒ participation in public and political spheres; 2) a women rights movement successfully advocated during the development of the LFO to bring back women reserved seats. As a result, the LFO reserved 60 seats for women in the National Assembly(out of 342 seats) and 17 in the Senate(out of 100). Consequently, the 2002 elections resulted in a considerable increase in the number of women in the National Assembly and the Senate. Since then women lawmakers’ contribution on the legislation front is disproportionately greater than their numerical strength in the house. Their visibility has also increased due to their ability to present their respective parties’ perspective on prime-time television talk-shows. Women on reserved seats do not graduate to running on general seats: Women parliamentarians selected on reserved seats largely have a symbolic role. They seldom graduate to running on the general seats. Reserved seats also deny them the opportunity to cultivate their own constituency. 68 Women, although present in the assemblies in large numbers thanks to a healthy reserved quota, have not been able to break into political party DECISION of ANP, have separate women wings which in fact are a tool to ensure that 66. The Research Initiative. Decade of democracy in Pakistan.(2018). p 68 67. Ibid 68. Pakistan’s Political Parties, Surviving between Dictatorship and Democracy.( 2020) edited by Mariam Mufti et al p.205 25

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan women never become a part of the mainstream decision making process in any political party. 69 Number of women winning on general seats is negligible: In political empowerment Pakistan ranks at 93 among 152 countries. 70 Although the number of women candidates contesting on general seats has steadily been rising since the 2008 elections, yet the number of women winning those seats has gone down. In the 2008 elections, there were 72 candidates of which 16 won. In the 2013 elections, nine of the 135 contesting women candidates won. In the 2018 elections, of the 183 contesting female candidates only eight were elected to the parliament. 71 Except for one all of these women came from established political families. Among the possible reasons for their landing a candidature could be either there were no eligible male candidates or there were potentially more winnable seats than the number of eligible male members in her family. Of these eight successful legislators, four were elected from Sindh, three from Punjab and one from Balochistan. The increase in the number of women candidates from the political parties’ platform can be attributed to the Election Act 2017 which made it mandatory for the parties to allocate at least 5% of their total tickets to women. 72 The POLITICALÒPARTIESÒWEREÒBARELYÒABLEÒTOÒMEETÒTHISÒREQUIREMENTÒASÒ!.0ÒTHATÒµELDEDÒ the largest number of women candidates could only reach 7.5% of the total candidates. 73 Moreover, this requirement was met only in the name as most women CANDIDATESÒACROSSÒTHEÒPARTYÒLINESÒCOMPLAINEDÒOFÒBEINGÒµELDEDÒINÒUNCOMPETITIVEÒ constituencies. Notwithstanding the gains made so far, concerted efforts are still needed to make women’s participation in the parliament proportionate to the population. 69. Waseem, Muhammad et al. Political Parties in Pakistan.(2012) p. xxiv 70. World Economic Forum. Global Gender Gap Report 2020. P13. http://www3.weforum. 71. Pakistan’s Political Parties: Surviving between Dictatorship and Democracy edited by Mariam Mufti et al.(2021) p 197. 72. Chaudhry, Fahad. Only 8 of 183 women candidates elected to NA in July 25 polls, ECP data shows.(2018). Daily Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/news/1431514(accessed Sep 7, 2018) 73. Political Parties in Pakistan: Surviving between Dictatorship and Democracy edited by Mariam Mufti et al.(2021). P 199 26

Contours of power dynamics 3. Contours of power dynamics Entrenched structural inequalities in the shape of disproportionate land ownership, skewed distribution of wealth and a governance model favoring the rent-seekers’ club give a few a head start over many in economic and political 74 !ROUNDÒ FAMILIESÒ DOMINATEÒ THEÒ HIGHESTÒ REVENUEÒ ANDÒ PROµTÒ MAKINGÒ businesses in Pakistan. 75 The privileged groups such as landlords, businesses tax breaks and concessions. 76 There is PKR 168 billion worth of tax evasion by the urban elite 77 whereas only 20% of public expenditure in Pakistan is spent on human development. 78 There is however incremental pressure brought on by the more urbanized middle classes aided by the onset of 4G digital technologies who are challenging unequal distribution of resources, and lack of opportunities for upward social mobility, rule-based political order as well as nondiscretionary service delivery. Income inequality provides a perfect backdrop to growing chorus against the exploitative conditions favoring the special interest groups. Some 50 million people(24.3%) in Pakistan earn less than$1.90 per day. This could go up to 60 million(29%) thanks to Covid-19. 79 According to the World Bank, the further widening of the gap between the rich and the poor. 74. New Perspectives in Pakistan’s Political Economy: State, Class and Social Change(2019), edited by Matthew McCartney and S. Akbar Zaidi p.153 75. Ò 0AKISTANÒ.ATIONALÒ(UMANÒ$EVELOPMENTÒ 2EPORTÒ PUBLISHEDÒ INÒ April 2021. p.156. https://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/library/humandevelopment-reports/PKNHDR-inequality.html(accessed May 18, 2021) 76. Ibid, p 115. 77. Ibid, p 117. 78. Ibid p 113. 79. Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-20 p.287 27

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan “The poorest 1 percent of the population,[] hold only 0.15 percent of the national income, compared to the richest 1 percent, whose share of national income exceeded 9 percent in 2018–2019.” 80 81 )N¹ATIONÒANDÒPOORÒGROWTHÒINÒ'$0ÒDUEÒTOÒ#OVID the rate of inequality. Geographic and ethnic basis of economic disparity: The economic disparity has a strong urban-rural as well as geographic bias that adds to disenfranchisement of people on political and economic peripheries.“About 70% of bottom 50% earners live in rural areas as compared to 53% among the top 10%. Sindhi and Saraiki speakers are poorer than the rest of the population, representing 39% of the bottom 50% but only 17% of the top 10%. Native Urdu and Pashto speakers are slightly richer than other ethnolinguistic groups, while the Punjabi cut across all social classes.” 82 Feudal power survives threat to its political hegemony: The most prominent manifestation of power imbalance in the rural context is in the Pakistan is 0.83. 83 The top 1% of farmers own as much as 20% of the farm area. About 11% of landowners control half of total farm area in Pakistan. 84 At the bottom, a small farmer has only 0.3 hectare on average. 85 Nearly half of all rural households do not own any land. The extractive feudal class pays low tax rate on its agricultural income. Total annual revenue yielded by agriculture is less than PKR 3 billion. 86 80. Ò 0AKISTANÒ.ATIONALÒ(UMANÒ$EVELOPMENTÒ 2EPORTÒ PUBLISHEDÒ INÒ April 2021. p 13. https://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/library/humandevelopment-reports/PKNHDR-inequality.html(accessed May 18, 2021) 81. Kirmani, Nida.The spectre of inequality.(2020). TheNews. https://www.thenews.com. pk/tns/detail/610312-the-spectre-of-inequality#:~:text=Is%20inequality%20a%20 problem%20in%20Pakistan%3F&text=According%20to%20the%20World%20 Bank,the%20poor%20in%20the%20country.( accessed Dec 22, 2020) 82. Mehmood, Sultan et al: Social Inequality and the Dynamics of Political and Ethnolinguistic Divides in Pakistan, 1970-2018 p. 10 83. Mohmand, Shandana Khan: Crafty Oligarchs, Savvy Voters: Democracy Under Inequality in Rural Pakistan,(2019) p.12 84. Ibid p.11 85. Ò people/growth-and-inequality-in-pakistan/(accessed Dec 22, 2020) 86. Ò 0AKISTANÒ.ATIONALÒ(UMANÒ$EVELOPMENTÒ 2EPORTÒ 0UBLISHEDÒ INÒ April 2021. p 107. https://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/library/humandevelopment-reports/PKNHDR-inequality.html(accessed May 18, 2021) 28

Contours of power dynamics They procure subsidized electricity for tube wells and are obliged to pay nominal water charges. Large-scale farmers also get preferential access to BANKÒ THEÒ TOTALÒ VOLUMEÒ OFÒ THEÒ BENEµTSÒ AVAILEDÒ BYÒ 0AKISTANgSÒ feudal class is PKR 370 billion. 87 Aided by their economic clout, the rural landed elite have maintained their grip on rural politics as they readily provide political parties with both candidates and votes, retaining key positions and roles within these parties. According to a research in Punjab, since 1970 only about 400 families have been members of parliament. Between 1985 and 2008 two-thirds of all elected legislatures and half of the top three contestants for each constituency were dynastic. 88 While monopoly of the landed over rural politics is pervasive, it is not unchallenged. There are creeping social and demographic changes that have begun to alter the electoral behavior of a rural voter. Over all, in rural Pakistan landholdings have substantially fragmented. Compared to 1972, in 2010, the number of farmers holding 100 acres was halved to 14pc. In Punjab this was 7pc. 89 With agriculture sector losing 5% share in national employment between 2007 and 2018, 90 off-farm jobs in the formal and informal urban economy available on the periphery of a village have increased, making the )NCREASEDÒ LITERACYÒ ANDÒ ¹OWÒ OFÒ INFORMATIONÒ THROUGHÒ DIGITALÒ MEANSÒ OFÒ communication have created political consciousness. Besides eight general elections spaced out in three decades have made today’s voter more aware of the power of the ballot. Therefore contrary to popular perception, the political factors such as development, party ideology, or issue based politics are seen to at least partially trump the social factors such as faction, family and kinship ties while determining a political choice. The rural voter has gradually learnt to use the vote bloc as a bargain for access to basic services such as health, education, sanitation and public goods – rights, justice and security. 91 87. Ibid 88. Cheema, Ali et al. Dynastic Politics in Punjab: Facts, Myths and their Implications. Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives(IDEAS). p 1. https://ideaspak.org/wp-content/  ACCESSEDÒ-AYÒ 22, 2021) 89. Mohmand, Shandana Khan. Crafty Oligarchs, Savvy Voters: Democracy Under Inequality in Rural Pakistan(2019) p.12 90. Javed, Umair. Structural transformations.(2019). Daily Dhttps://www.dawn.com/ news/1517346(accessed May 22, 2020) 91. Mohmand, Shandana Khan. Crafty Oligarchs, Savvy Voters: Democracy Under Inequality in Rural Pakistan(2019) 29

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan it expedient to engage with a patron to get their rights, justice and services in return for an electoral favor. Therefore, the prevalent perception of a rural voter as being irrational and ignorant looking over their shoulder every time they were to vote may no longer hold water. 92 It is also observed that competitive electoral politics expands the poor’s political space. For example in more egalitarian social settings in the Crown villages, of Punjab 93 there is greater horizontal collective action and voter has more political space and bargaining power. Conversely Proprietary villages 94 are vertically organized, politically less competitive and offer limited bargaining power to the rural voter. Yet for all relative socio-economic independence of a rural voter, the landed continue to organize the politics for their connection with the state..The British fashioned a property rights regime in which the landed acted as patrons mediating between the landless and the state. Hence the state and LANDEDÒ CLASSÒ HADÒ CONSIDERABLEÒ IN¹UENCEÒ OVERÒ CON¹ICTÒ RESOLUTIONÒ and service delivery. Nonetheless the increased political competition and the politically aware rural voter in Punjab have forced the entrenched oligarchies to renegotiate the terms of political engagement. There is a new class of agro traders and agro processors who have challenged the landed monopoly over leadership. There is little data though on how many of the same feudal have invested their agrarian surplus in such businesses in off-farm trade, real estate, industry and entrenched their status as broker of patronage. 95 The feudals have also invested in their children’s education who studied in top universities in Pakistan or abroad to be lawyers, doctors, engineers etc. Unlike the rural poor who have no means to form horizontal supra-village alliances, the landed forge political alliances through old school networks, marriages and extended social circles. 96 92. Ibid 93. Where the British gave land to more diverse proprietors without ownership rights as Inequality in Rural Pakistan(2019). p 53. 94. Villages that have hereditary large land holdings in Punjab’s settled and cultivate districts as Inequality in Rural Pakistan(2019). p 50. 95. Views expressed by a Key Informant interviewed by TRI in Lahore(October, 2020) 96. Mohmand, Shandana Khan. Crafty Oligarchs, Savvy Voters: Democracy Under Inequality in Rural Pakistan(2019) 30

Contours of power dynamics In sum, unequal distribution of resources has serious political and social impacts. Most analyses based on landholding data conclude that land inequality translates into economic dependence which leads to dependent voting. 97 It is also observed that in rural areas where social, structural and land inequality is low there are more democratic, inclusive processes. Whereas in areas where it is high, the political process is exclusive and marginalized have little political agency. 98 Political spending by the industrialist class is a universal practice. In Pakistan too, although prohibited by section 184 of the Companies Act 2017, that the state both lacks the intent and capacity to enforce, 99 the corporate capital bankrolls political parties’ election campaigns through off-the-books donations. 100  HAVINGÒ RIGGEDÒ THEÒ POLITICALÒ THESEÒ CORPORATIONSÒ ANDÒ HIGH NETÒ worth individuals force government’s hand to squeeze wide-ranging tax exemptions and concessions with minimal regulatory checks for themselves, all in the name of ease-of-doing-business and ensuring growth. Multinational companies’ also protect their corporate interests through powerful trade and business associations. Businesspeople often get elected to the parliament to have a seat at the legislative table that grants them unchecked access to policymaking instruments impacting their businesses. The corporate sector liberally avails OFÒ THEÒ µSCALÒ INCENTIVESÒ INÒ THEÒ NAMEÒ OFÒ INCREASINGÒ employment, and investment. The combined loss of revenue due to these policies exceeds PKR 20 billion each year. 101 Many industries such as sugar industry pay as low as 8% sales tax as opposed to the standard 17%, magnitude of this tax break was almost PKR 32 billion in 2017-2018. 102 The number of sugar mills almost doubled to 90 since 97. Ibid p.11 98. Ibid p.190 99. Special report. How much does it cost to organize an election? Daily Dawn.(2018). https:// www.dawn.com/news/1421963(accessed May 21, 2021) 100. Ibid 101. Ò 0AKISTANÒ.ATIONALÒ(UMANÒ$EVELOPMENTÒ 2EPORTÒ PUBLISHEDÒ INÒ April 2021. p 108-109. https://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/library/ human-development-reports/PKNHDR-inequality.html(accessed April 18, 2021) 102. Ibid p 109-110. 31

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan 1990, 103 nearly half of which are owned by political class. 104 The industry is given protection against international competition by imposing high import duties. 105 Five export industries, including textiles, save PKR 95 billion in the sales tax liability besides having access to a special credit line of PKR 0.5 trillion, with lower-than-the-market interest rate. 106 The PTI government provided Rs20 billion($120million) in tax relief to banking, manufacturing, textile and fertilizer sectors in 2019 alone. 107 The corporate collective at the back of their economic clout can be a major driver of change in favor of a rule-based society that encourage economic GROWTHÒ HOWEVERÒ ITÒ NEVERÒ WENTÒ BEYONDÒ LEVERAGINGÒ ITSÒ POLITICALÒ IN¹UENCEÒ FORÒ politics not only perpetuates rent-seeking culture but also undermines the credibility of democracy and enhances political inequality. Bazar economy and politics: "AZARÒ ORÒ TRADINGÒ CLASSÒ ISÒ AÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ PARTÒ OFÒ POWERÒ CALCULUSÒ INÒ THEÒ)TÒ HASÒ GRADUALLYÒ INCREASEDÒ ITSÒ IN¹UENCEÒ particularly in urban centers. Since 1980s trading class has been able to tilt the balance of political power in support of more right learning political parties. As regards Bazar’s contribution to national revenue, the large-scale wholesale and retail traders too easily manipulate the system and have managed to stay out of the documented economy. The bazaar economy that is largely unregulated contributes 18.4% to total GDP. 108 The retail-wholesale sector’s estimated value is$42 billion with annual sales reaching$155 billion through 1.3 million establishments. 109 103. Special report. Samaa. The Sugarland Sadness: Every Pakistan sugar mill mapped.(2020). https://www.samaa.tv/news/2020/05/the-sugarland-sadness/(accessed April 21, 2021) 104. Bari, Dr Khadija. The vicious cycle of sugar politics.(2020). https://tribune.com.pk/ story/2176785/2-vicious-cycle-sugar-politics(accessed April 21, 2021) 105. Ibid 106. Ò 0AKISTANÒ.ATIONALÒ(UMANÒ$EVELOPMENTÒ 2EPORTÒ PUBLISHEDÒ INÒ April 2021. p 111. https://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/library/humandevelopment-reports/PKNHDR-inequality.html(accessed April 18, 2021) 107. Kirmani Nida. The Spectre of inequality.(2020). TheNews. https://www.thenews.com. pk/tns/detail/610312-the-spectre-of-inequality#:~:text=Is%20inequality%20a%20 problem%20in%20Pakistan%3F&text=According%20to%20the%20World%20 Bank,the%20poor%20in%20the%20country.( accessed Dec 22, 2020) 108. Ò ANDÒ"AZAARÒ 4RADERSÒ ANDÒ 0OLITICSÒ INÒ 5RBANÒ 0AKISTANÒ (2018) p. 22 109. Ibid 32

Contours of power dynamics This informal economy employs 73% of the total urban labor force who are 110 The same labor force is exploited by the rich traders by offering crumbs of charity and help in dealing with the coercive state apparatus. All of these patronage roles are made possible by their status as economic elites and through their connections with the state. Businessmen who started entering the politics in the 1980s, Nawaz Sharif himself being a prime example, have consolidated their position since. Punjab’s urban constituencies have elected 75% of legislators 111 with business connections in 2013, making them second biggest group in the provincial legislature after agriculturalists. During the 2015 city council elections, more than two-thirds of the PML-N and PTI candidates were traders. Traders have traditionally sided with the military or with parties like the PML-N and the PTI. 112 So much so that PTI’s meteoric rise to power in 2018 is believed to have been facilitated by the military and landed political and industrial elites. 113 Economic clout of military and middle class grievance: The military establishment itself has the largest business conglomerate in Pakistan, having stakes in urban real estate and construction of public projects. Whereas the combined estimated value of these companies’ assets was PKR 443 billion in 2017 which has grown at over 13% per year. The estimated annual value of construction work by the Frontier Works Organization, a military owned enterprise, is PKR 230 billion. 114 While the military has directly ruled Pakistan for over three decades, ITSÒ ECONOMICÒ CLOUTÒ HASÒ HELPEDÒ ITÒ WIELDÒ UNDUEÒ IN¹UENCEÒ OVERÒ THEÒ CIVILIANÒ leadership. 110. Ibid 111. Ibid 112. Ibid p 24. 113. Ibid. p 92. 114. Ò 0AKISTANÒ.ATIONALÒ(UMANÒ$EVELOPMENTÒ 2EPORTÒ PUBLISHEDÒ INÒ April 2021. P 113. https://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/library/humandevelopment-reports/PKNHDR-inequality.html(accessed May 18, 2021) 33

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan It is accused of manipulating the 2018 elections and instituting a hybrid model of governance partnering with PTI. 115 In September 2020, a combined political opposition alliance of a dozen political parties was formed to mainly CHALLENGEÒ ANDÒ ROLLÒ BACKÒ THEÒ IN¹UENCEÒ OFÒ MILITARYÒ INÒ 3INCEÒ THEÒ slew of allegations from the top opposition leaders has drawn the top military leadership into public controversy in a manner unheard of before. Making a disciplined and hierarchical military to cede the space in the political, economic and foreign policy domains will be a long haul without a lucrative incentive structure for a critical mass within the upper tier of the institution. Still there is hitherto unheard of barrage of criticism by the burgeoning middle classes through social media for the military’s transgressions in political sphere that are beyond its constitutional mandate. Moreover easy and instant access to information through digital means has transformed the way citizens respond to political developments. 115. Shah, Aqil. Will Pakistan’s Military Lose Its Grip on Power?(2020). Foreign Affairs. https:// www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/pakistan/2020-12-22/will-pakistans-military-lose-its-grippower( accessed May 20, 2021) 34

Contours of power dynamics Power and political dynamics at micro level Case Studies of Lyari Larkana Multan Nankana To further understand the political dynamics as informed by social and DEMOGRAPHICÒCHANGESÒµELDÒWORKÒWASÒUNDERTAKENÒINÒTHEÒFOURÒLOCATIONSÒINÒTWOÒ provinces, i.e. Punjab and Sindh. The choice of these two provinces is also dictated by the fact that these eastern provinces have exhibited markedly different social, demographic and political trends than the Trans-Indus western provinces of Baluchistan and KP. 4HEÒ µLEDÒ WORKÒ SIGNIµCANTLYÒ ENRICHEDÒ THISÒ STUDYÒ ANDÒ PROVIDEDÒ USEFULÒ DATAÒ to analyze the complex web of social, demographic and power dynamics operating in the rural/semi-urban context in these locations. The data and analysis also helped delineate any variation from the broad national trends. &ORÒ THEÒ µELDÒ&OCUSÒ'ROUPÒ$ISCUSSIONSÒ Ò ANDÒ+EYÒ)NFORMANTÒ Interviews(KIIs) were held in four key electoral territories in two provinces: NA-246, and PS- 11 in Lyari in Karachi and Larkana in the northern Sindh respectively and NA-118 and NA- 154 in Nankana and Multan in the central and southern Punjab respectively. 4HISÒ CHAPTERÒ PRESENTSÒ OURÒ KEYÒ µNDINGSÒ FROMÒ THEÒ AFORE MENTIONEDÒ THREEÒ NATIONALÒ ANDÒ ONEÒ PROVINCIALÒ ASSEMBLYÒ 4HEÒ µNDINGSÒ FORÒ EACHÒ OFÒ FOURÒ CASEÒ STUDIESÒ AREÒ ORGANIZEDÒ UNDERÒ µVEÒ THEMATICÒ SOCIALÒ ANDÒ DEMOGRAPHICÒ ELECTORALÒ ANDÒ POLITICALÒ POWERÒ determinants of voting behavior; role and response of political parties and future of politics. 35

Lyari: From loyalty to logic 4. Lyari: From loyalty to logic A view of Kiran Gali(street) in Lyari The Baloch and Kutchi, in Lyari see PPP trading off the Lyari’s interests with the‘Sindhi interests’ in government jobs, public infrastructure and education quota. Views of Lyari residents Introduction As Karachi is called microcosm of Pakistan, Lyari in the same way is mini-Karachi where people belonging to all ethnic groups are present. To understand the realignment in the political and democratic order of the country as a result of demographic, social and political changes, we sought to study National Assembly constituency(NA-246). The selection of Lyari for this case study has BEENÒDETERMINEDÒBYÒITSÒHISTORICALÒPOLITICALÒSIGNIµCANCEÒANDÒTHEÒDIVERSITYÒINÒTHEÒ election results from the area that signal a departure from its traditional voting 37

Lyari: From loyalty to logic Table 4: Breakup of election results in Lyari: 1970- 2018 Election Winner Votes Runner up Constituency Total votes polled Turnout % Country wide turnout % 1970 PPP 48, 444 15, 108 NW 130 Karachi 3 101,793 1977 PPP 58, 243 24, 437 NA 188 Karachi 6 87,181 1985 Independent* 30,500 16,995 NA 189 67,431 Karachi South 1 1988 PPP 62, 046 10,731 NA 189 Karachi 91,471 South 1 1990 PPP 54,308 12,615 NA 189 Karachi 73,012 South 1 1993 PPP 38,849 18,996 NA 189 Karachi 66,223 South 1 1997 PPP 23,104 22, 792 NA 189 Karachi 56,611 South 1 2002 PPP 32,424 14,700 NA 248 Karachi 10 72,594 2008 PPP 84,217 9,651 NA 248 Karachi 10 106,414 2013 PPP 84, 530 26,348 NA 248 Karachi 10 136,080 2018 PTI 53,029 42,377** NA 246 Karachi 207,136 South I Source: ECP/Fafen/CWS National Assembly Election in Pakistan 1970-2008 53.80 55.30 37.4 46.1 36.44 32.3 26.8 32.2 30.3 46 38.49 59.80 64.1 53.7 42.7 45.2 37.6 36.1 41.8 44.4 53.62 51.99 39

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan  3OCIALÑANDÑDEMOGRAPHICÑPRO´LE Education and digital empowerment While schools abound, keeping children in is a struggle: The Lyari Town has a number of government and private schools, madrasas, colleges and universities, including a medical college, vocational centers and industrial homes. 118 But keeping children in school is a struggle for most lower-income Lyari residents. In terms of male education, dropouts are common because of poor returns on education. 119 People think why should they invest in education when a son has to eventually follow in his father’s footsteps, observed a school principal interviewed for this report. The principal shared her struggles to convince the community to send their children and maintain attendance in the school. Religious groups, security concerns obstruct girls’ education: Girls in the community are seen as more bent towards obtaining education than boys but girls’ access to education is obstructed by two major factors:(i) unsafe street environment and(ii) families’ inability to fund alternate arrangement such as transport to facilitate commute to school 120 A young girl interviewed for the FGD, said:“During the time of the gang war, I used to go to school BUTÒ)Ò COULDÒ ONLYÒ µNISHÒ th grade. I was lucky enough to have been safe throughout. I’m not studying any further. We face a lot of street harassment when we step out; boys catcall and stalk us. That is why I stopped going to college.” 121 A number of other young girls approached for opinions on education shared similar experiences. Lack of quality education, new skills shrink economic opportunities for Lyari people: It appears that a variety of domestic and environmental FACTORSÒ AREÒ SLOWLYÒ TAKINGÒ AWAYÒ ,YARIÒ YOUTHgSÒ OPPORTUNITYÒ TOÒ µNDÒ UPWARDÒ mobility and social and economic empowerment in life. If this trend continues it may reinforce the existing conditions of economic marginalization and vulnerability. 118. Reform Support Unit, School Education& Literacy Department, Government of Sindh at http://rsu-sindh.gov.pk/downloads/schoolSearch.php( accessed Dec 15, 2020) 119. Views expressed by a school principal in FGD held in Karachi( 20 Oct, 2020) 120. Views expressed by majority of participants in KIIs in Karachi( 9-14 Oct, 2020) 121. Views expressed by an FDG participant in Karachi on 20 Oct, 2020 40

Lyari: From loyalty to logic As it is, the local population is unable to keep up with an evolving and DYNAMICÒ JOBÒ MARKETÒ THATÒ DEMANDSÒ QUALIµEDÒ LABORÒ THATÒ COULDÒ ENGAGEÒ AÒ fast-paced economy. With the erosion of market for traditional skills that the Lyari citizens have been attached with and a future without adequate literacy may continue to result in exclusion from mainstream economic opportunities, leaving Lyari’s population perpetually dependent on external actors – either political or state or non-state – for economic choices. In terms of its political manifestation, it appears that unemployment and shrinking economic opportunities are and shall remain a major factor impacting the voting choice of the local population. Women have restricted access to digital technologies: According to most people interviewed there is an increase in access to digital technology across gender boundaries. However, there is a marked difference in the use of mobile phones and the internet among the male and female respondents. 7HILEÒ MALESÒ ENJOYÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ FREEDOMSÒ INÒ THEIRÒ USEÒ OFÒ CELLULARÒ PHONESÒ ANDÒ communication opportunities offered on the new media, females are discouraged from using cell phones and also from engaging on social media. Academician Nida Kirmani, in her research, notes a type of“virtual veiling” used by women of Lyari in social media interaction.“For young women in particular, social media is opening up a platform to explore different sides of their identities and different types of relationships. However, it is still not acceptable for most young women to have facebook accounts in Lyari. The minority who manage to access social media do so in secret, using a pseudonym and never publicly sharing their own photo on the platform. They can use their accounts to initiate conversations with different people, 122 In both KIIs and FGD interviews, participants observed that technology is increasingly being used by the conservative elements to advance their narrative. The proliferation of digital technology and easy access to internet and social media communication is said to be a major factor behind the success of new political entities such as the TLP that made inroads into the community through new media political messaging. 123 122. Kirmani, Nida. Can Fun Be Feminist? Gender, Space and Mobility in Lyari, Karachi.(2020). South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies,(accessed Feb 24,2021) 123. Basit Abdul. Barelvi Political Activism and Religious Mobilization in Pakistan: The Case of Tehreeke-Labaik Pakistan(TLP), Politics, Religion& Ideology, DOI: 10.1080/21567689.2020.1812395 ( 2020) https://doi.org/10.1080/21567689.2020.1812395(accessed Feb 24, 2021) 41

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan A head of a local community center for women pointed out the use of WhatsApp by the religious conservatives to propagate their message. The proliferation of digital technology and easy access to internet and social media communication is said to be a major factor behind the success of new political entities such as the TLP. 124 Moreover, common access and diverse use of digital devices – across all gender boundaries, age and interest groups kÒ POINTÒ TOÒ THEÒ INCREASINGÒ SIGNIµCANCEÒ OFÒ THISÒ MEDIUMÒ FORÒ THEÒ COMMUNITYgSÒ ability to engage the system and explore political representation. Gender Increased economic participation and empowerment of women: Lyari is celebrated in the mainstream media for women’s mobility and political voice. However our interactions with the local population suggest a rather complex picture. The increased empowerment of women comes on the back of two trends:(i) increasing inclination among women to seek education; (ii) the need for women to seek income-earning opportunities to help HOUSEHOLDSÒ TOÒ MEETÒ GROWINGÒ 4HESEÒ TRENDSÒ HAVEÒ CONTRIBUTEDÒ TOÒ women’s empowerment, mobility and also a say in domestic matters, leading to a change in gender relations. While educated women end up marrying less educated or mismatched spouses, they refuse to tolerate excesses by spouse or in-laws and either walk out of marriage or seek parents’ support. This is becoming common among non-literate women too. This has played a important change in gender dynamics.“Physical violence has reduced now because girls speak up. Earlier, girls did not use to complain or resist. Now  LAWS ÒWOMENÒGOÒTOÒTHEIRÒPARENTSgÒ house straightaway. Parents are also protective of their children now and support them,” notes a local school principal 125 from the Kutchi community who feels times have changed as families are now much more tolerant towards women’s higher education compared to her own times twenty years ago. Women’s political agency: In addition to economic mobility, women are increasingly politically mobilizing to demand their rights. They no longer see their role as a mere supporter of popular political candidates. The political manifestation of women’s mobility and empowerment can be found in 124. Ibid 125. Views expressed during an FDG in Karachi held on 20 Oct, 2020 42

Lyari: From loyalty to logic increased assertiveness towards political parties and towards expression of aspirations for greater mobility in public spaces through sports and cycling. As voters, women are increasingly taking a confrontational role having been thrown in the midst of a chaotic and insecure life in which basic day to day facilities are denied. During the security operation against the gangs, women were reported to have taken up arms to defend their households. 126 Women residents – from Bihar Colony- also confronted Bilawal Bhutto’s election rally, holding pots and chanting“ Pani Do, Pani Do(give us water)”, reminding him of his party’s failure to provide civic amenities to Lyari. 127 Women exercising their right of choice in marriage, their mobility in public space and engagement on social media, suggest an increasing tendency to defy the traditional norms that seek to suppress them socially and politically. Religiosity There is a broad consensus among the experts interviewed for this research can be traced to the increase in the number of religious schools in the city, as well as symbolism such as the adoption of beard and abayas.“In fact, this tendency of religiosity has increased in all the sects including Shias, Barelvis, Deobandis, Tableeghis etc,” observed a senior journalist with expertise in Karachi’s politics. 128 Both experts as well as local residents in Lyari 129 ÒAGREEÒTHATÒRELIGIOUSÒIN¹UENCEÒ is expanding in the area and it has found expression in(i) increase in the number of madrasas teaching radical religious education;(ii) dominant role of religious actors in regulating the day to day life and critical social decisions  ÒANDÒ restrictions on women’s mobility and freedom of expression. 126. Asia Report, International Crisis Group, Pakistan: Stoking the Fire in Karachi. 15 February 2017 127. Ò:IAÒ!FTERÒ MOREÒ THANÒ YEARSÒ OFÒ µERCEÒ ,YARIÒ VOTESÒ 000Ò  AFTER MORE THAN YEARS OF µERCE loyalty-lyari-votes-ppp-out(accessed Dec 15, 2020) 128. Views expressed by a Key Informant in Karachi in second week of October 2020 129. Views expressed during FDGs( 20 and 22 Oct, 2020) and Key Informant interviews held between 9 and 14 of October 2020 43

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Various sectarian madrasas converge on Lyari: Ò$ATAÒFROMÒTHEÒPASTÒµVEÒ years suggest the number of madrasas in Sindh to be in the range of 7,000 to 10,000. 130 An undated list of madrasas registered under the Directorate of Industries by the Sindh Government noted the number of registered madrasas to be higher in Lyari compared to any other subdivision of South District. 131 A school principal interviewed 132 for this research shared she is expected to run the details of every school function and activity by the local madrasa and mosque leaders in her street to get their consent before organizing them. h7HENÒ PARENTSÒ COMEÒ TOÒ MYÒ SCHOOLÒ TOÒ ENROLÒ THEIRÒ THEÒ µRSTÒ question they always ask is about my sect. They ask which sect’s sipara(Holy book) do we teach in the school?” the principal shared. As another example OFÒ THEÒ EXPANDINGÒ IN¹UENCEÒ OFÒ THEÒ LOCALÒ ITÒ WASÒ SHAREDÒ THATÒ PEOPLEÒ are increasingly naming their children at the prayer leader’s advice.“People CONSIDERÒ LOCALÒ MOULVISÒ ASÒ EDUCATEDÒ ANDÒ WORTHYÒ OFÒ RESPECTÒ ANDÒ consultation over all important matters,” a local said. While there is a consensus regarding the growth and spread of madrasas in Lyari –“ har gali mein do teen madrasay hain’’, noted an interviewee – our interviews suggested alarm on this trend coming only from activists and political workers. 133 However the locals interviewed did not see any issue with the expanding role of the madrasas. In the FGD, a female participant said: 134 “We have to send our children to masjid and madrasas so that they can become better people and do not pick any wrong habits. Earlier our children would roam around the streets, but now that trend as lessened. So increase Another participant said:“People are now more aware about religion and follow it. It is important to follow religion too.” 135 Religio-political parties dictate day to day life: In Lyari, a combination of increasing role of the local mosque, growing number of madrasas and 130. Rathore, Mujtaba. Registration of madrassas and NAP. Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies. https://www.pakpips.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/registration-of-madrasahs. pdf; 131. Khalil, Umair, The Madrasa Conundrum(2015) published by HIVE Karachi https://sindh.gov. pk/dpt/industriescommerce/List-of-madarsa-Karachi.pdf(accessed Dec 15, 2020) 132. Views expressed during an FDG held in Karachi on 20 Oct, 2020 133. Ibid 134. Ibid 135. Views expressed during an FDG held in Karachi on 22 Oct, 2020 44

Lyari: From loyalty to logic AFµLIATEÒ POLITICALÒ PARTIESÒ COMEÒ TOGETHERÒ TOÒ RESTRICTÒ WHICHÒ LEAVESÒ little room for the community to resist it. A senior researcher interviewed for this report observed that any threat or reprimand by a local mosque leadership BECOMESÒMUCHÒMOREÒREALÒANDÒPOWERFULÒWHENÒTHEÒMASJIDÒISÒAFµLIATEDÒWITHÒAÒ madrasas. One of the organizers of the Lyari Literature Festival informed how they had to change the content of their program in last year’s festival over JI’s protest against a music session in the program.“They called it vulgar saying that the youth were dancing and singing. We had no choice but to replace our original program with a qawwali session to stop their protests outside the gate.” 136 In the face of such display of power, it is becoming increasingly DIFµCULTÒ FORÒ THEÒ LOCALSÒ TOÒ ORGANIZEÒ ANYÒ FORMÒ OFÒ EXPRESSIONÒ THATÒ MAYÒ OFFENDÒ the religious forces.“TLP is allowed to organize large rallies. They install huge screens and relay messages propagating beheading of people for Namoos-eRisaalat.” shared a senior activist based in Lyari. 137 Religious parties seek control over women: Another way religiosity impacts expression is by asserting control over women’s participation in public life. This is done by promoting values that discourage women mobility and their progressive interaction with the environment. Women’s enrolment in dars and madrasas and adoption of rituals has also seen an increase. But while religious trends are dominant, they have also been challenged simultaneously, which is evident in women’s mobility in public spaces. The aspirations of these young girls for public visibility also compel conservative and right-wing parties to take this constituency seriously. JI operates a dedicated women’s wing in the area. Likewise, religious parties are reported TOÒ WATCHÒ WOMENÒ MOREÒ CLOSELYÒ ANDÒ SEEKÒ TOÒ IN¹UENCEÒ THEÒ ENVIRONMENTÒ TOÒ control their movement. A boxing coach running a local club lamented over dropouts by girl students due to family’s refusal to support girls on the basis of religious conservatism, even though he manages separate timings and arrangements for his male and female students. The management of a community center for women seconded that: “We face immense resistance when girls are cycling. People do complain when it comes to boxing and football too, but not as much as they resisted cycling because it is an activity that involves girls going out on the streets. 136. Ibid 137. Ibid 45

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Any work that brings women in the public eye or something that is not acceptable from the religious point of view is opposed.” 138 Religiosity promotes disengagement from mainstream : A veteran social worker who has been running community welfare program for decades notes that this trend has led to women becoming more conservative, dropping out of spaces and opportunities that represent mainstream lifestyle.“Earlier, girls used to come to industrial homes, they would sit there and we would take PHOTOGRAPHSÒ"UTÒ SINCEÒ;'ENERAL=Ò:IAgSÒ TIMEÒ THEREÒ ISÒ DEµNITELYÒ AÒ MOVEÒ towards conservatism. Now they refuse to be photographed or take part in any recreational activities. Women from lower and middle class backgrounds have gradually moved from stitching centers to madrasas. This includes Baloch and Kutchi women too. Tableeghi events have increased with time would convince their families to go along with them as well. Religiosity is increasing in Karachi too. I have another center in Mauripur. Same thing happened there as well. Girls wear burqa.” 139 Religiosity exists side by side liberal lifestyle choices: There have been MIXEDÒREVIEWSÒONÒTHEÒMANIFESTATIONÒANDÒIN¹UENCEÒOFÒRELIGIOUSÒSYMBOLISMÒONÒ study, we came across opinions from both sides of the spectrum. One believing that those adopting religious symbols also exercise greater conservatism, and the other noting people engage religion only for the“sake of it”. However, it has been argued that the other side of the picture should not be missed. While religious trends are dominant, they have also been challenged simultaneously, which are evident in women’s mobility in public spaces. A veteran documenter of social change who also teaches at public and private universities noted: trips, girls were not allowed by their parents to join those trips. And these were not the ones who wore hijab. But it is not the same anymore. Girls go wherever they want to and for several days. Girls are even driving motorbikes. Self-will marriage is also very common now. Girls marry as per their will.” 138. Views expressed during an FDG in Karachi held on 22 Oct, 2020 139. Interview with a Key Informant in Karachi held in second week of October 2020 46

Lyari: From loyalty to logic There is an opinion in Lyari that the youth turning to religion, especially for tableegh(preaching) should not be seen as an inclination towards violence or supporting religion in politics. A local journalist interviewed for the report opined:“It is one thing to be forced to follow a religious doctrine, it is quite another to follow religion out of lack of choice for an alternative. The thinking that dominates in Lyari is“when there is nothing else, let’s ÒµNDÒOPTIONSÒINÒ religion!” Jobless youth just tag along religious congregations. It gives them an opportunity to travel, mingle with people and enjoy themselves. This trend has become common in the last 10-15 years. Some people, then, grow a beard, but they remove it when they want to. After going to one extreme, they do come back and lead a“normal life” again,” noted a journalist from Lyari. 140 Experts also argue this to be a regular development that doesn’t necessarily have to have negative repercussions. A senior journalist and analyst from Karachi 141 who has extensively worked on the role of religious elements on city, opined that Karachi citizens have mostly displayed religious and political tolerance. “You will not see liberal or religious symbols of non-Muslims being threatened, despite the presence of the region’s biggest madrasas around the city.” Religiosity and politics of Lyari: I TÒISÒDIFµCULTÒTOÒDECIPHERÒHOWÒRELIGIOSITYÒ feeds into political choices. The general impression however is that a Lyari voter is independent in their choice and keeps the economy as the fundamental consideration while voting. Nonetheless, this in no way implies that people would not vote for religious parties as a number of powerful local and national political factors come into play. Disastrous performance of the mainstream political parties as well as favourable environment, created by the military establishment, for religiopolitical parties turned the area into a fertile playground for conservative forces. The recent rise of TLP in the realm of political representation does SUGGESTÒTHATÒTHEÒCON¹UENCEÒOFÒFAITHÒWITHÒPOLITICS has important implications for the future of politics in Lyari. 140. Interview with a Key Informant in Karachi( 9-14 Oct, 2020) 141. Ibid 47

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Gang War Lyari is home to Karachi’s largest and most powerful criminal gangs; it is also 142 This took a heavy toll on ordinary residents of the locality. Politically motivated violence in the locality in 2013 alone claimed 219 lives, 143 more than half of WHOMÒ WEREÒ INNOCENTÒ$URINGÒ SUCHÒ DIFµCULTÒ TIMESÒ RESIDENTSÒ WEREÒ left to fend for themselves negotiating their space both with the state as well as non-state actors. The notorious gang war has made a profound impact on Lyari community’s age-old political values and practices and the systems governing their economic mobility. The gang war that spanned over 6 years shook the local population to their core and made them realign their political choices. The history of violence in Lyari is characterized by three major waves. The µRST wave was the rise of smuggling business in the’60s that was especially concentrated in the Baloch community. The powerful individuals and groups emerging out of a combination of smuggling money and the politics of second wave came on the back of Pakistan’s active role in the Afghan war. The proliferation of arms and drugs as a result of Pakistan’s support to the war boosted criminal activity and also facilitated access to arms for nonstate actors. This was followed by MQM’s rise to power in the’80s that adopted a practice of street confrontation and cultivated a militant wing to secure greater power and funds through extortion money to fuel the party’s activities. MQM’s expansionist agenda for the city of Karachi threatened the Baloch of Lyari, sympathetic to the PPP. The criminal and violent elements from the community were in turn recruited by the PPP for the party’s own militant wing. Economic, social and political impact of gang war: Post 2000, the the PPP and exploiting Lyari’s proximity to the lucrative port and wholesale markets which were at the center of the extortion business by the criminal  As the gangs sought to assume individual power, the PPP withdrew its support and the law enforcement agencies launched a security operation 142. Ò 143. Pakistan Today. It’s not just gangsters that are dying in Lyari.(2013) https://www. pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/12/28/its-not-just-gangsters-that-are-dying-in-lyari/(accessed Oct 4, 2020) 48

Lyari: From loyalty to logic against them in 2013. The gang war has tarnished Lyari’s image as a peaceful neighborhood. Due to the shrinking economic and living spaces(due to population explosion) there is a growing trend among the Baloch population from extremely low-income areas to move towards further low-income localities by selling their houses. The land is being purchased by the Pashtospeaking community, which further signals towards demographic changes leading to transformation in political representation. Nearly everyone interviewed complained of denial of access to work as employers perceive all Lyariites to be a part of the criminal network. Women also complained of being denied instalment offers from retail shops for household goods – a popular practice in Karachi. Apart from economic exclusion, this may also REINFORCEÒAÒSENSEÒOFÒMARGINALIZATIONÒTHATÒCANÒHAVEÒDEEPÒPOLITICALÒRAMIµCATIONSÒ if not addressed in time. “Everyone has suffered immensely due to the gang war. People have lost property and businesses. We have seen terrible scenes like we see in movies: gunshots, people dying, bomb blasts; nobody’s dignity was safe during that time. It destroyed Lyari.” – a local male shared during the FGD. In the FGDs and in literature too, women expressed harrowing tales of being trapped INÒ AÒ ANDÒ CONSTANTLYÒ FACINGÒ THEÒ THREATÒ OFÒ SEXUALÒ 7OMEN dominated households particularly suffered as young girls faced threats of kidnapping. Moreover, the raids conducted by police and Rangers too brought in acute trauma for their brutal methodologies.“We had to leave the place where we earlier lived because of the operation. We did not have anything to eat,” said a local woman. Ò!ÒSIGNIµCANTÒIMPACTÒOFÒGANGÒWARÒHASÒ been the loss of employment and economic opportunity outside Lyari. This is also giving way to a new class formation. Those – primarily the Baloch- abandoned by political parties and the state, scramble to look for alternate opportunities, while the communities with greater inter-communal harmony and protectionist tendencies – the Kutchi community and the Pakhtun community – are better equipped to deal with the ongoing economic uncertainty. Local journalists observe Baloch opting for non-conventional trades such as hawkers or low paying menial jobs in the market which were not practiced earlier. It was also pointed out that such conditions may lead to youth jumping into drug business for easy money. This may further pave the way for violence and insecurity in the area that may destabilize the political and social fabric of the Lyari, which is already fragile.“A number of my students faced a lot of discrimination because of the social stigma 49

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan against the people of Lyari, as a consequence of the gang war. The Baloch community living here is particularly a subject of this discrimination. Young boys wouldn’t get work because of this and they would feel dejected,” 144 shared the head of a local boxing club interviewed for this report. In the words of the head of a local community organization: “From 2012 to 2014, some 70% people migrated from Lyari. Some migrated temporarily, while others left permanently. Some of the union councils were left completely deserted. Only when the law and order situation started improving towards the end of 2013 and 2014 that people started coming back to Lyari.” 145 PPP is perceived to be part of the problem: The role of the Pakistan Peoples Party in fostering the violent elements in Lyari is well documented. There is a consensus among the locals interviewed that following the gang war PPP essentially abandoned its traditional voter base. A party supporter interviewed reiterated: “During the time of the gang war, a number of important people among PPP’s leadership were killed. Neither Asif Ali Zardari nor Bilawal Bhutto went to comfort their families. Yet Bilawal contested elections from this area. (EÒ SHOULDÒ HAVEÒ µRSTÒ visited the homes of the PPP workers and seen what happened with them.” 146 It is widely believed that Pakistan Peoples Party’s loss in 2018 elections is the result of its role in the gang war and it’s disconnect with the local population following the operation by the security forces. At the same time, the state of insecurity created by gang war also shrunk space for political engagement and even public mobility. Gang violence and security forces’ operation has led to a major shift in public opinion on mainstream parties within Lyari, and that manifested in the 2018 elections. %LECTORALÑANDÑPOLITICALÑPRO´LE Lyari has a population of 908,327 while the number of registered voters is 536,688. Of which 305,940 are men whereas women are 230,748. 144. Views expressed during an FDG in Karachi held on 22 Oct, 2020 145. Ibid 146. Ibid 50

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Figure 3: Gender gap comparison 57% G 47% E 2 0 1 8 Male Female Pakistan 57% 47% 51% 43% Sindh 51% 43% 43% 32% NA 246 43% 32% Source: ECP 2ECON´GURATION of political trends favoring right-wing religious groups: The 2018 election results represent a substantial RECONµGURATIONÒOFÒ It was also about the win of the right wing religious parties from Lyari which emerged as the largest voting bloc in the constituency. This also suggests substantial changes in voters’ priorities and perceptions. Lyari had generally been a predictable constituency for its political representatives. Breaking from its 50-year-old tradition of voting PPP in, Lyari constituency helped the PTI win which secured 26% of votes as opposed to TLP’s 21%. PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari trailed at number three with 20% of votes. MMA, another religious party alliance, got about 16% of votes. The religious vote put together comes to over 37%. Hence, the religious bloc becomes the largest ideological group in Lyari. The PPP also lost two provincial assembly seats in Lyari-- PS-107, and PS-108 -- to the TLP and MMA candidates respectively. 150 In the PS 107, the PPP lost to the TLP by about 12, 000 votes. In the PS-108 the winner, Syed Abdul Rasheed of JI – representing the MMA -- received 16,821 votes. He led with a narrow margin of around 1,200 votes as his runner up, PTI’s Nasir Baloch, received 15,577 votes. The TLP secured 7,958 votes from this constituency. 151 150. Express Tribune. Lyari Rejects Bilawal.(2018). https://tribune.com.pk/story/1767233/lyarirejects-bilawal( accessed Oct 1, 2020) 151. Electionpakistan.com. PS 108 Karachi South General Election 2018 Result. https://www. electionpakistani.com/ge2018/ps/PS-108.htm( accessed Oct 1, 2020) 52

Lyari: From loyalty to logic PPP ditched its own worker while awarding ticket: The 04)Ò µELDEDÒ Abdul Shakoor Shad as its candidate for 2018 elections. He was a die-hard PPP worker who fought against the Zia regime and had lived in exile. It was THEÒINµGHTINGÒOVERÒPARTYÒLEADERSHIPÒTHATÒ caused Shakoor to part ways with the PPP. In 2008 he contested elections as an independent candidate, and joined the PTI just months before the 2018 elections. 152 For Lyariites, he was a credible political worker. He ÒSHOULDÒHAVEÒBEENÒµELDEDÒ by the PPP, for his rich services as a party worker. PPP’s reluctance in supporting the gang leaders in the recent past also appeared to be a cause of anger among the PPP supporters in the area. Shad’s win can be explained as a rejection for the PPP and MQM, and also the swinging of public sentiments nationwide in favor of the PTI. PPP’s‘link’ to gang war: The party’s perceived use of Lyari as a base for its political battles, that paved the way for one of the most violent episodes of gang war, suggest the gang war to be a major factor compelling Lyari’s population to rethink their relations with their favored political party. TLP’s success in winning over the Barelvi vote: A majority of Lyariites come from the‘Barelvi’ school of faith. 153 The TLP is an aggressive proponent of Barelvi sectarian politics and has a robust party structure in the constituency that explains one provincial assembly seat and the runner up status in the national assembly contest. Although the TLP managed to win only two provincial assembly seats in the Sindh province yet it has stirred the religious pot, indicating a shift in the religious vote towards the more radical and hardline parties. JI’s welfare work: The general explanation with regard to the JI candidate’s win is the welfare work by the JI in the area. It is largely seen as an‘NGO’ party that has consistently ran a range of welfare programs such as establishment of schools, adult literacy centers, industrial homes WATERÒ µLTRATIONÒ P lants, medical centers, and monthly support for widows and orphans through the Al Khidmat Trust. At the constituency level, there is a consensus that JI’s 152. Express Tribune. Meet Abdul Shakoor Shad-a jiyala turned PPP slayer.(2018).https://tribune. com.pk/story/1771365/1-meet-abdul-shakoor-shad-jiyala-turned-ppp-slayer(accessed Oct 2, 2020) 153. Paracha Nadeem F. The Good, The Bad and the Ugly& the Lyari.(2012)...Daily Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/news/706128/the-good-the-bad-the-lyari(accessed Oct 1, 2020) 53

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan welfare work has raised its perception as a political force that can serve the public interest more usefully. Why MQM lost in Lyari: In Lyari, the MQM had been consistently winning the PA-107 seat since the 2002 elections. The party lost its position in Lyari DUEÒTOÒTHEÒPRE ELECTIONÒDEVELOPMENTSÒTHATÒµRSTÒSTARTEDÒWITHÒTHEÒSTATEgSÒOFµCIALÒ policy to curtail the party’s political space by‘muting’ the party leader Altaf Hussain, dismantling of its mohalla[neighborhood] network and closing DOWNÒTHEÒPARTYÒOFµCESÒACROSSÒTHEÒCITYÒINÒADDITIONÒTOÒAÒCRACKDOWNÒONÒ-1-gSÒ activists. Moreover, the MQM also broke into several factions as it struggled for the alternatives. As a result, the party lost favor with its traditional vote BANKÒ THATÒ NOÒ LONGERÒ SAWÒ ITÒ ASÒ AÒ UNIµEDÒ FORCEÒ CAPABLEÒ OFÒ REPRESENTINGÒ THEÒ interests of its constituents. The MQM won only 4 NA seats in Karachi compared to as many as 17 in each of the past two elections. 4.3. Power dynamics in Lyari On the outside Lyari conveys the impression of a monolithic entity. But it is ethnically diverse. About 60% of its inhabitants are the mid-19th century working class settlers from Balochistan. 154 Besides people from Iranian IDENTIµEDÒ ASÒ 3HEEDISÒ CALLEDÒ-AKRANIS Ò AREÒ BELIEVEDÒ TOÒ HAVEÒ MIGRATEDÒ here from East Africa between 1200 and 1900 AD. After the Partition, Pushtuns, Sindhis, Mohajirs, and Memons moved to this area. Its minority population comprises Hindus, largely Meshwaris, and Christians. 155 All the political parties engaging Lyari have sought to manage the aspirations of the diverse inhabitants of Lyari by promoting patronage-based politics. In last 50 years, Lyari has transformed from a buzzing center of political activism, rooted in progressive politics and communal harmony to a povertyriddled, congested, and crime infested neighborhood that feels let down by its political patrons. Local realities including access to amenities, expectation for patronage, security, and aspiration for economic mobility have compelled Lyari in the 2018 elections to deviate from its predictable political posture. 154. Hasan Arif, Pakistan Mapping Study, Prepared for a Research Project of the Max Lock Centre, Westminster University, London, UK,(2003) http://arifhasan.org/wp-content/ uploads/2012/10/pakistanmappingstudy-AH-095.pdf( accessed Oct 1, 2020, 2010) 155. Baloch Latif, Lyari: Karachi’s oldest settlement,(2005). Daily Dawn. https://www.dawn. com/news/150437/karachi-lyari-karachi-s-oldest-settlement( accessed Oct 2, 2020) 54

Lyari: From loyalty to logic Even before the elections, it was obvious that the PPP had earned the ire of ITSÒ TRADITIONALÒ 4HISÒ IMPRESSIONÒ WASÒ CONµRMEDÒ DURINGÒ OURÒ INTERVIEWSÒ with the residents of Lyari. Here are some of the reasons behind the success of new political parties in the constituency. 156 After Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, the PPP stopped doling out public jobs to the Lyariites, a practice it had actively pursued in the past. Two, the party did not invest in improving the civic infrastructure. The Lyari residents expressed their resentment over poor infrastructure as the PPP chairperson visited the area before the 2018 elections. When questioned about the causes of the PPP’s defeat in Lyari, a woman supporter of the party said:“Bilawal has broken people’s trust. He only visited the area for votes. That’s why people were angry at him.” 157 Out-migration of the Baloch: Rising poverty and shrinking of land space is also forcing the Baloch and other low income communities to move to more affordable areas on the outskirts of the city. This outmigration is being balanced by the in-migration of the Pakhtun and other communities with new money. The resultant demographic changes may further intensify competition for resources and reinforce a sense of marginalization in the local population. Sharpening of identity politics: Contrary to the popular perception that the Baloch and Kutchi population are part of the wider Sindhi identity, WEÒ FOUNDÒ DURINGÒ THEÒ µELDWORKÒ THATÒ THEREÒ ISÒ ANÒ ELEMENTÒ OFÒ ESTRANGEMENTÒ among the residents with the PPP. They increasingly perceive the PPP as a party serving the interests of Sindhis. Locals, particularly the Baloch and the Kutchi, now see PPP trading off the Lyari’s interests with the Sindhi interests in the government jobs, public infrastructure and education quota. During the interviews, a number of male respondents felt that the PPP is prioritizing its Sindhi voter base in public jobs.“We are neither in CM House, nor in Bilawal House any longer.” 158 In case of Lyari economic opportunities, or lack thereof, has also impacted power dynamics by weakening certain ethnic groups in comparison to others. On the economic front, Lyari’s population is faced with slipping of 156. Ò Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/news/1417254( accessed Oct 2, 2020) 157. Views expressed during FDG in Karachi on 20 Oct, 2020 158. Ibid, 22 Oct, 2020 55

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan economic opportunities. The emerging modern and service-driven market of Karachi has limited place for traditional trades that Lyari’s population has been associated with. Other than port related work, Lyari citizens have been traditionally associated with small industries, cinemas, and donkey and camel carts, as industrial workers and as domestic workers. While the Kutchi and Pashtun communities are able to mobilize internal support due to their strong communal base, the Baloch are losing ground on the economic front. “Once we did an informal assessment on the representation of the Lyari population in major professions in Karachi. We found out that except for the government jobs, we were in no other profession,” shared a local researcher frustrated with lack of economic opportunities for the local youth. 159 programs of the government that require a minimum amount of capital base and enterprise experience. If this trend continues it may reinforce the existing conditions of economic marginalization and vulnerability. It also seems that in future, economic backwardness will continue to be a political challenge and a consideration shaping voters’ choices. Interplay of religious identities and ethnicity: The MMA’s victory can also be attributed to the geographical outline of the constituency. The PS-108 comprises Behar Colony, Chakiwara, Tannery Road, Hazara Colony, Umar Lane, and Singho Lane among others. 160 Behar Colony houses Urdu-speaking population, while other areas have a mix of Kutchi, Pakhtuns and Baloch settlements. The locals say that apart from JI’s welfare work, the MMA’s win may also have been steered by the constituency’s sizeable Deobandi and Pakhtun vote, which the MMA seems to have cashed in on. 161 4.4. Determinants of voting behavior Lyari votes independent of family: It appears that the voting choice in Lyari is independent of the family or community’s collective political ideology or preference. 159. Interview with a Key Informant in Karachi in second week of October, 2020 160.“GIS Polling Scheme for PS 108- Karachi South-II” July 19, 2018 https://ecp.gov.pk/ frmPSGE.aspx?ProvCode=12&ConstCode=108&ElectionType=PA( accessed Dec 15, 2020) 161. Views expressed during FDGs held in Karachi on 20 and 22 October, 2020 56

Lyari: From loyalty to logic “Families are not united over voting, and they vote for whoever they prefer,” said a veteran social activist who has been working with the local community for decades. 162 This was seconded by some respondents interviewed, and participants of the FGDs adding that while they do follow the family’s choice for voting for the local government polls, in the general elections they follow their own choice. 163 Economics determines the voting choice for the locals in Lyari. The PPP’s consistent victory in the past elections is attributed to the party’s commitment to creating employment for the locals in the public sector.“People here have been voting for the PPP, because it used to provide them with jobs. If one person in a family is getting a job, then the whole family would be on board for voting in support of the party-- that has helped them,” said a journalist interviewed for the study. 164 Younger voters prefer performance over ideology: An expert studying the young people’s voting patterns suggests youth are less likely to be politically loyal on ideological or historical grounds; they do a lot of sifting and switching. Many of the young people interviewed by the media advocated going beyond the usual considerations of biradari and ethnicity and voting for the best candidate. 165 In Lyari too, the assertion of an independent choice for voting seems to follow the same pattern. The politics of ideology is essentially dead in Lyari. Moreover, people vote on the basis of the popularity of the candidate too. People want civic amenities: Apart from the economy, Lyari also seems to “In the with elections. People want jobs and civic facilities,” one FDG participant said. 166 In fact, it has been argued that in the past, religious parties have only won when they have taken the cause of civic issues. Citing the case of Sipahe-Sahaba’s Aurangzaib Farooqui who contested from Landhi, Karachi in the 2013 elections and nearly won on the basis of his strong political activism against the then District Government for their inability to repair civic facilities 162. Interview with a Key Informant in Karachi held in second week of October, 2020 163. Views expressed during interviews with Key Informants in Karachi( 9-14 Oct, 2020) and FDG held in Karachi on 22 Oct, 2020 164. Interviews with Key Informants in Karachi during 9-14 Oct, 2020 165. The Research Initiative. Lyari: From Loyalty to Logic.(2020) 166. Views expressed during an FDG held in Karachi on 22 Oct, 2020 57

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan in the area, a journalist interviewed for the study felt that people vote more 4.5. Role and response of political parties Lyari has long stood out as a center of street political mobilization with public representatives deeply rooted in the local community. Before the PPP’s hold over the area, there was a thriving culture of cause-based politics. Post PPP, the culture of political debate, dialogue, study circles, and night schools teaching political education continued, in an environment of tolerance and co-existence. This culture ended due to the gang war that created much physical insecurity for the locals as well as for political workers who were always on the hit-list of the rival political groups and gangs. Locals no longer DEEMÒ ITÒ SAFEÒ TOÒ NAVIGATEÒ THEÒ AREAÒ ANDÒ THEIRÒ CONµDENCEÒ INÒ THEIRÒ COMMUNITYÒ and neighborhood has been shaken. In addition, post Benazir Bhutto, there has been a major shift in the PPP’s engagement with the locals. People noted with disappointment how once, after 2008, Asif Ali Zardari, as President of Pakistan, rather than visiting the area, inaugurated a community center in Lyari from the Bilawal House. The party leaders who were earlier seen enjoying tea at local tea stalls and interacting with the community now visit the area in their SUVs and Vigos. Political parties’ interface with citizens: 7HILEÒTHEÒOFµCESÒOFÒMAJORÒPOLITICALÒ parties, particularly the PPP and JI are present and functioning in Lyari, these ,OCALSÒ OBSERVEÒ THATÒ THESEÒ PARTYÒ OFµCESÒ REMAINÒ SYMBOLICÒ WITHÒ AÒ LIMITEDÒ ROLEÒ and capacity to serve the community. h0OLITICALÒ PARTIESÒ DOÒ SETÒ UPÒ OFµCESÒ IFÒ they have political representation. Workers go to their party to get their work done. They know who to contact for their issues and complaints. If their local PARTYÒ LEADERSÒ DOÒ NOTÒ PAYÒ THENÒ WORKERSÒ TURNÒ TOÒ MOREÒ IN¹UENTIALÒ PARTYÒ members to get their issues resolved. However, the link between political parties and the public has weakened over time. Workers can still go to their  said a senior social worker from Lyari who also works with political parties for welfare activities. 167 The gang war and the resultant shift in public sphere and worker-party relations have certainly impacted the institution of political parties in Lyari, reducing their presence in the area. This has further disillusioned the people – who have for generations seen Lyari as a battleground of local and national politics. 167. Views expressed during an FDG in Karachi held 22 Oct, 2020 58

Lyari: From loyalty to logic On the contrary religio-political parties – even when they do not have a FORMALÒOFµCEÒkÒAREÒPRESENTÒINÒTHEÒFORMÒOFÒLOCALÒMADRASAÒANDÒWELFAREÒCENTERSÒ that facilitates locals’ access to their leadership. During the time of the gangs rule, major gang leaders positioned themselves as representatives of public interest, issuing guidelines over community’s issues and delivering justice. With the absence of mainstream political and local leadership, there is certainly a vacuum in Lyari. 4.6. Future of politics in Lyari There is a high sense of dejection as Lyari reels from the harrowing episodes of gang violence and the process of being abandoned. Moreover, the institution of political party is also declining following the gang war and targeting of limited role and capacity to serve the local constituency. As a result, the voter turnout in the constituency in the 2018 elections was lower than the previous elections and also markedly lower than the national average. The area remains a fertile ground for politics of all kinds. It really depends on the interest and the capacity of the existing political forces to adopt this constituency and deliver on the aspirations of the locals. It is not over for PPP yet: Analysts believe that Lyari still maintains a soft corner for PPP- which it has voted for 50 years – and there is every reason for the PPP to make a comeback if it makes a genuine effort to resolve the issues of the locals. 168 All is not lost for mainstream political parties: There is much temptation in declaring Lyari as a lost ground for mainstream political parties and an emerging center of faith-based political parties. There is much ground in the argument that parties with powerful mobilization capacity such as the TLP and those that are seen as rooted in community, such as the JI, have a bright future in Lyari. However, this is contested by three trends: 1) Voters in Lyari – no matter the age group, gender and background– are politically aware, knowledgeable and exercise independence in their voting choice; 2) They have displayed the tendency of voting on economic grounds, supporting the parties that provide jobs, serve the economy and address their civic issues. This is also the trend in the rest of Karachi, and 168. Views expressed by Key Informants in Karachi( interviews held during 9-14 Oct, 2020) 59

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan explains support for the MQM which is considered as a public-service based party; 3) Despite the formidable presence of religious parties including the JI, TLP, JUI-F, Sipah-e-Sahaba and Sunni Tehreek, the voters in Pakistan have displayed a general tendency for voting for mainstream political parties. The vote for religious parties in the 2002 elections or even now for TLP is attributed to a variety of factors including poor performance of their predecessors. They are voted out when they fail to perform as was the MMA. Is religious vote a one-off phenomenon? Apparently, the 2018 election results appear to reject the traditional mainstream parties in Lyari in favor of religious political parties. Whereas the religious vote was the result of a vacuum created by the mainstream parties in Lyari. Experts argue that there is much scope for the return of the mainstream parties if they resolve to serve their constituency and make a sincere effort to address their issues. 169 The recent vote for the religious parties or any party will only last so long as they serve the economic and social interests of the Lyari residents. In Karachi including Lyari(in the past) people have shown strong inclination towards PML-N famous for its development work in the Punjab. In future, it seems voters can vote out anybody who is unable to perform, no matter THEÒ IDEOLOGICALÒ ORÒ RELIGIOUSÒ The Barelvis, Mianwalis, Hazara and Pashtun communities, in the past have shown the tendency to vote for religio-political parties as well as a non-Karachi entity like PML-N that won the 1997 provincial assembly seat from Lyari. )TÒ ISÒ DIFµCULTÒ TOÒ BEÒ CERTAINÒ ABOUTÒ THEÒ FUTUREÒ OFÒ RELIGIO POLITICALÒ PARTIESÒ INÒ establishing themselves as a local stakeholders. 170 The emergence of religious RIGHTÒ ASÒ AÒ THIRDÒ POLITICALÒ WHILEÒ THEÒ ¹AMEÒ OFÒ THEÒ MAINSTREAMÒ POLITICALÒ parties and indigenous activism in the constituency dims, does suggest the need for serious contemplation on the part of those who want to shape the moderate trends in politics. What is the future of PTI: )FÒPERFORMANCEÒISÒTHEÒCRITERIAÒTHATÒHASÒIN¹UENCEDÒ the ouster of PPP and the entry of PTI, the future of the winning parties from Lyari remains a question mark. During interviews, PTI’s MNA was constantly 169. Interviews with Key Informants in Karachi held during 9-14 Oct, 2020 170. Views expressed during FDG in Karachi held in Oct, 2020 60

Lyari: From loyalty to logic criticized for his inability to resolve the local civic problems in the area:“A manhole has been erupting in front of[]MNA’s house ever since he became area’s issues?” said a participant in FGD. 171 There is also realization that the existing resource distribution mechanism under the 18 th Constitutional Amendment that strengthens provinces against the federal and the local government will never allow anybody who is not supported by the province to perform. A lot will also depend on how MQM reacts to the changed reality and whether it shall be able to reclaim its lost space as well as reconnect with disillusioned voter who chose not to vote in 2018 elections. PTI which has razor-thin margins of victory over half of the constituencies it won in the city WILLÒNEEDÒTOÒFULµLÒITSÒPROMISESÒTOÒTHEÒCITIZENSÒOFÒ+ARACHIÒIFÒITÒWEREÒTOÒHOLDÒONÒ to its success. 171. Views expressed during an FDG held in Karachi in Oct, 2020 61

Nankana: A swinging state 5. Nankana: A swinging state Birth place of founder of Sikh religion Baba Guru Nanak in Nankana district With relative economic independence of voters in Nankana, now candidates have to visit the educated and aware voters multiple times during canvassing to seek their votes Introduction Nankana is a district in central Punjab. It is a heterogeneous land housing AÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ 3IKHÒ)TÒ HASÒ AÒ SPECIALÒ SIGNIµCANCEÒ AMONGÒ THEÒ 3IKHÒ community as the birth-place of the founder of Sikh religion Baba Guru Nanak. Nankana Tehsil forms a major part of the NA-118 constituency which is chosen as the case study to analyze the power dynamics and political trends in Central Punjab. Nankana Tehsil has a total population of 883,876 of which 773,598 are rural residents whereas 110,278 are urban. 172 Total votes are 371,715; of which 43% are female and 57% male. There are 75 women voters for every 100 male registered voters. 173 173. Fafen. 2018 General Election: National Assembly Election Results Analysis Report. https:// fafen.org/2018-general-election-results-analysis-report/( accessed Mar 5, 2021) 63

Nankana: A swinging state the differing use of digital technologies, a participant of the FGD in Nankana said that males use cellular devices more openly to stay in touch with others, and access and share information on different topics whereas the girls in Nankana use it more for educational purposes. 179 This falls in line with results of a survey by the Punjab Commission on Status of Women(PCSW) which points out that 62% of young women in Punjab are using cell phones (71% urban) while 34% have computer literacy. It adds that 21% young women have access to the internet and out of these 82% participate in social media forums. Participants of the FGD in Nankana shared that the use of social media, text messages, Whatsapp etc have become major tools of communication and people do not feel the need to meet others in person. 180 The Internet and social media have emerged as highly potent tools for mobilization of masses on political issues, and exposing weaknesses of political opponents. The contestants in NA-118 resorted to this practice in the run-up to 2018 elections. A key informant said this had saved political parties the hassle of reaching out to workers and voters physically. “They do meet but obviously the frequency of such meetings has come down.” 181 The most used medium to listen to political leaders, opinion leaders and religious scholars is social media. The TLP particularly made adroit use of social media in Nankana. The party not only relayed its message BUTÒ SUCCESSFULLYÒ VILIµEDÒ 0-,.Ò FORÒ THEIRÒ ALLEGEDÒ ATTEMPTÒ ATÒ AMENDINGÒ THEÒ blasphemy law. A journalist hailing from Nankana pointed out that religious scholars and orators have huge following on social media and people get IN¹UENCEDÒ BYÒ THEMÒ REGARDLESSÒ OFÒ THEÒ FACTÒ THEYÒ AREÒ PRACTICINGÒ-USLIMSÒ ORÒ not. A Key Informant shared people who would earlier not seek religious knowledge now listen to religious scholars/orators on social media, get IN¹UENCEDÒ BYÒ THEMÒ ANDÒ SHAREÒ THEIRÒ SPEECHESÒ WITHÒ OTHERSÒ-OSTÒ OFÒ THEÒ +EYÒ)NFORMANTSÒINÒ.ANKANAÒAGREEDÒTHATÒTHEÒVILIµCATIONÒOFÒTHEÒ0-,.ÒONÒSOCIALÒ media helped the TLP attract the former’s voters. 182 Ò4HEÒ4,0ÒµNANCEÒSECRETARYÒ Muhammad Haseeb said that their members and workers have strategically used social media for propagation of their ideology and reached a larger 179. Ibid 180. A participant of FGD held by TRI in Nankana on 29 Oct, 2020 181. A participant of FGD held by TRI in Nankana on 29 Oct, 2020 182. Interview with a Key Informant in Nankana on 27 Oct, 2020 65

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan AUDIENCEÒ WITHINÒ AÒ SMALLÒ USINGÒ MINIMALÒ µNANCIALÒ 183 He said THEIRÒYOUNGÒMEMBERSÒAREÒQUITEÒADEPTÒINÒTHISÒµELDÒANDÒEVENÒSPENDÒOUTÒOFÒTHEIRÒ own pockets to boost campaigns on different online platforms. Higher literacy and digital empowerment have made people in the constituency politically more aware which manifests itself in increased electoral participation and the trend of demanding development work from their elected representatives. 184 Class dynamics and employment trends Massive intergenerational mobility across classes: The area witnessed an intergenerational social mobility as the landed class opted for advanced agriculture and invested their surplus into agriculture-related businesses. In the Nankana district, rice and wheat growers have set up mills which have increased their incomes. Expansion in the road network has increased the value of land besides there is an increasing trend of building housing societies and commercial buildings on agricultural land falling alongside roads or near the city centers. Those with smaller landholdings pursued education and secured jobs in the government and the private sectors. A Key Informant shared that in the district a person earning Rs 50,000 per month is considered as well-off µNANCIALLYÒASÒSOMEONEÒOWNINGÒAÒ 25-acre land. 185 Agriculture is the mainstay in the canal-irrigated fertile land: Farming is still the mainstay of people in the district where landholding is still reasonably big and land is fertile with developed irrigation channels. Wheat, rice and sugarcane are major crops. A variety of Basmati rice(Super Basmati) from the area is exported to the USA and the Gulf states. 186 The district has a good share in Punjab’s agricultural output which contributes about 57% to the value of national agricultural production and produces more than 80% of the country’s wheat and cotton, almost two-thirds of its sugarcane, and about half of its maize; and its horticultural output represents 67% of the national production. 187 However, unlike the Central Punjab, Nankana does not have big industrial units such as agro-based textiles, sugar and 183. Ibid 184. Ibid 185. Interview with a Key Informant in Nankana on 27 Oct, 2020 186. Ò /FµCIALÒ$ISTRICTÒ 0ROµLEÒ OFÒ.ANKANAÒ 3AHIBÒ accessed Jan 15, 2021) 187. Punjab Agriculture Department 66

Nankana: A swinging state edible oil manufacturing plants. While other parts of central Punjab offer employment to locals in engineering, steel and re-rolling, home appliances, sports goods, construction, transportation etc, the residents of Nankana are µNDINGÒ EMPLOYMENTÒ INÒ MOSTLYÒ TEXTILEÒ SETÒ UPÒ INÒ ANDÒ ONÒ THEÒ periphery of the district. Within Nankana, most jobs are in the government sectors of education and health. 188 Increased economic empowerment of women: Increasing economic pressure has changed the old modes of thinking where girls’ education was least of a priority. There is a healthy enrolment trend among girls both in the traditional education as well as in the vocational institutes to learn employable skills. A woman participant of the FGD in Nankana said that after matriculation she preferred to join a vocational institute over further education. The FGD participants informed that families also look for working women as matches for their sons of marriageable age. As for the employment avenues, the agriculture sector remains the major employer for uneducated women in the district while educated women are moving to other cities for employment as their mobility has improved because of better road network and inter as well as intra-city transport services. 189 This is in conformity with the overall trend in Punjab. To facilitate the increasing number of women moving out of their home towns for education and jobs, the Punjab Government has established Punjab Women Hostels Authority which monitors and regulates affairs of government and private hostels meant for women in the whole province. 190 This is a development that will help women accept jobs outside their cities. Women do not exercise independent decision making: Although women are better informed and politically more aware now, they have to largely go with the decisions of the male elders of their families. Some educated and employed women did vote for the PTI and the TLP in 2018 against the will of their families but earned their displeasure. 191 This is a trend that is in line with the rest of rural central Punjab where while girls are increasingly 188. Views expressed by FGD participants held on 29 Oct, 2020 in Nankana 189. Views expressed by FGD Participants in Nankana held on 29 Oct, 2020 190. Daily Nation. 0UNJABÒSETSÒUPÒµRST(2019) . https://nation.com. -AR SETS UP µRST EVER WOMEN HOSTEL AUTHORITYÒ ACCESSEDÒ$ECÒ 2020) 191. Views expressed by an FGD participant in Nankana held on 29 Oct, 2020 67

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan getting an education and entering employment outside of agriculture yet the political decision making still remains with the male head of the family. In the district, there was evidence of women’s increased participation in the political activities as they were seen actively canvassing in the run up to the 2018 elections and taking women voters to polling stations on the elections day. Religiosity on the rise but not ritualism: During our discussions with people in the constituency, it was observed that religiosity is on the rise in the district. While it does not translate into any increase in the number of individuals performing religious rituals such as offering prayers, fasting etc, the district reported incidents of extremism and violence. 192 More people are reported to participate in religious gatherings and are extremely sensitive about the CONCEPTÒOFÒh+HATAM E that people are more conscious of their religious identity and religious symbolism than before and indulged in religious debates and sharing of religious messages on social media. 193 This extreme behavior displayed by the youth is incongruous with higher literacy and increased exposure due to physical and social mobility. Religious minorities a target of extremists: Nankana is the birthplace of the founder of Sikh religion, Baba Guru Nanak, and in the spotlight for this reason. Minorities especially Hindus and Christians have been living here for ages and the government authorities are always alert to avoid any untoward incidents involving minorities. However, on January 3, 2020, a charged mob including Tahreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan(TLP) workers gathered outside Gurdwara Nankana Sahib chanting anti-Sikh slogans, vowing to oust the minority Sikh community and renaming the town as Ghulaman-e-Mustafa. In another incident, on November 21, 2020 an Ahmadi doctor was killed and his three family members injured by a teenage boy over religious differences. As grim as the situation is, a Key Informant in Nankana thinks these incidents 194 Is increased religiosity a temporary phenomenon? A religious streak has always been there and the ever-increasing middle class is mostly religious but 192. Sheikh Bilal. Protesters surround Gurdwara Nankana Sahib, disperse after negotiations. (2020). Daily Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/news/1526068(accessed Mar 5, 2021) 193. Views expressed by an FGD participant in Nankana held on 29 Oct, 2020 194. Interviews held with Key Informants in Lahore on 27 Oct, 2020 68

Nankana: A swinging state things are tilted more towards moderation, believes a key informant. 195 He SAYSÒWEÒHAVEÒSEENÒMAJORÒSHIFTSÒINÒTHISÒCONTEXTÒDURINGÒTHEÒTIMESÒOFÒ:ULµKARÒ!LIÒ Bhutto, generals Zia and Musharraf and it is likely that things will eventually settle for moderation. Sometimes, people have to observe religiosity on societal pressure like in the case of working women who wear hijab while %LECTORALÑANDÑPOLITICALÑPRO´LE The constituency tends to play erratic with candidates gaining and In the last four elections, four different parties(and three different candidates) 196 have returned successful. In the 2018 elections, PTI’s Brig(R) Ejaz Shah got 29%(63,818) of the votes. PMLN’s Shizra Mansab bagged 28%(61,413) votes. TLP’s Syed Afzal Hussain Shah secured 22.6%(49,345) votes. PPP stood 4th by securing 8.5%(18, 726) whereas about 7%(15,000) of votes went to the remaining 6 of the 10 contestants. 197 The margin of victory was 2, 405 whereas the number of rejected votes was 4.4%(9,399). In 2013,(then NA-137) out of 14 candidates, PML-N won by securing nearly 35% votes(61,329) with Ejaz Shah, as an independent following with 32% (56,050) of the polled votes. Another independent candidate stood third with 13.1% votes, followed by the PPP and PTI with 6.8% and 5.1% respectively. Other parties and candidates managed to get a combined share of 4.4%, while another 3.8% votes were declared invalid. 198 An independent, Saeed Ahmed Zafar, won the 2008 polls, securing 42% (54,432) of the polled votes as opposed to PML-N’s Rai Mansab Ali’s 34.3% (44,745). The PPP had secured about 19%(24, 829) votes. In 2002, PML- Q candidate Rai Mansab Ali Khan won the seat with a share of 47.8%(61,506) in polled votes whereas PPP was the runner up with 41.5% (53, 783) votes. 199 195. Ibid 196. Rai Mansab was part of PML-Q in 2002 and PML-N in 2013 197. ECP data 198. Ibid 199. Ibid 69

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Nankana vote is increasingly fragmenting: The winner and runner-up’s individual and combined shares have been consistently decreasing, indicating that the vote is being split among various candidates. In 2002, the winner secured the seat with a 47.8% share in polled votes, which fell to 42% in 2008 and 34.9% in 2013 and 29% in 2018. 200 The runner-up has always been close behind – receiving 41.8% votes in 2002, 34.3% in 2008 and 31.9% in 2013 and 28% in 2018. The top two candidates received 89.6% of the votes in 2002. By 2013, this share had fallen to 66.8% and 2018 to 57.3%, suggesting that the vote bank has fragmented in favor of more than top three candidates. 201 Figure 4: Share of votes in NA-114: 2002-2018 Share of votes in NA-114: 2002-2018 47.80% 41.50% 35% 32% 42% 34.30% 29% 28% 22.60% 20.40% 13% 20% 19% 4.70% 5% 5.70% Winner Runnerup 3rd Others 2002 47.80% 41.50% 5% 5.70% 2008 42% 34.30% 19% 4.70% 2013 35% 32% 13% 20% 2018 29% 28% 22.60% 20.40% Source: ECP data/ Fafen Consistent higher voter turnout than national average: The electoral participation has increased in Nankana and the turnout in NA 118 has been considerably higher than the national average over the course of many elections. It rose from 46.1% in 2002 to 55.7% in 2008 to 61.1% in 2013 until it dipped slightly to 59% in 2018. 202 Women’s representation has been lower than men when it comes to voting in elections. In NA-118 the turnout of male voters was 63% as compared to female voters’ turnout of 53% in 2018 elections. 200. Fafen data 201. Fafen data 202. ECP data 70

Nankana: A swinging state Besides, there is a considerable difference in the number of registered male voters and registered women voters with the latter lagging behind. One major reason for this disparity is that a large number of women do not have CNICs-a prerequisite to register as voters. A survey conducted by Punjab Commission on Status of Women after 2018 elections revealed that in rural areas of Punjab only 56% of young women have Computerized National Identity Cards(CNICs) whereas 64% women living in the urban areas have this essential identity document. Fewer CNICs were issued to women in Punjab(41%) as compared to men(59%), the survey discovered. 203 Rejected votes greater than margin of victory: The number of rejected votes in the constituency has consistently increased. While the winning margin in 2002 and 2008 elections was considerably higher than the rejected votes, in 2013 and 2018 elections the number of rejected votes was greater than the margin of victory. It is surprising to note that a constituency that has one of the highest turnouts in the country for at least two decades has simultaneously been churning out an abnormally high percentage of rejected votes. Figure 5: Turnout NA-114: 2002-2018 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% NA- 118 Pakistan 46.10% 41.80% 2002 46.10% 41.80% 55.70% 44.40% 2008 55.70% 44.40% 61.10% 55% 2013 61.10% 55% Source: ECP 59% 52% 2018 59% 52% NA- 118 Pakistan 203. The News. 56pc of women have CNICs in rural areas of Punjab: survey.(2019). https:// www.thenews.com.pk/print/461162-56pc-of-women-have-cnics-in-rural-areas-ofpunjab-survey( accessed Dec 15, 2020) 71

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Figure 6: Gender gap in turnout in 2018 elections 63.00% 53.00% Source: ECP NA-118 Male Female Figure 7: Comparison between margin of victory and rejected votes: 2002-2018 9399 6641 5279 9987 5452 7723 3497 2405 2002 Source: ECP 2008 Margin of victory 2013 Rejected votes 2018 5.3. Power dynamics in Nankana Biradri is probably the most important determinant power dynamics in Punjab followed by religious sect. In case Nankana as well Biradri has had a very decisive role in NA-118. The Rajput-Rais- Rai Mansab Ali Dogar and his DAUGHTERÒ3HIZRAÒ-ANSABÒ!LIÒ They are believed to have support of some 45,000 to 50,000 Dogar-Rajput votes in the constituency. The Sikh community in Nankana which comprises mostly the Rajputs also supports this family. 204 Historically, political parties have nominated candidates from strong biradaries. When a biradari head takes a decision, a collective dua-e-khair(a form of prayer) is arranged in the presence of other notables, which implies 204. Interviews with Key Informants in Nankana held on 27 Oct, 2020 72

Nankana: A swinging state the whole biradari has accepted to vote for the approved candidate. Those going against the biradari’s decision have to face the consequences. 205 Dhara(faction) is another strong determinant of political choice especially in the rural parts of the constituency. In Nankana factions played a decisive role. There are mostly two opposing factions in the constituency and when one of them opts for one candidate, the other has no choice but to go over to the opposite side. The PML-N and PPP have traditionally accommodated rival factions in NA-118 as well as in central Punjab but now they are no more natural rivals as the PTI has become a choice of the faction that would opt for the PPP in the past. This is one major reason for PPP’s downfall in central Punjab. 206 The Barelvi vote that was traditionally polled by the PML-N went to TLP candidate in NA-118 in the 2018 elections. The TLP is said to have made effective use of social media in the constituency. Moreover the TLP candidate Changing power dynamics have begun to impact the voting behavior: In Nankana, the change in class and employment patterns has visibly affected voted for the PTI. Earlier, they would vote for one of their clan members: Rai Mansab Ali Dogar. Still the evidence is that most of the clan voted as a UNIµEDÒBLOCÒPRESUMABLYÒFORÒPATRONAGEÒRELATEDÒREASONSÒRATHERÒTHANÒANYÒCLANÒ with means of income independent of agriculture voted independently for PTI and TLP. 207 employed class still has to accede to the elders’ priorities in politics to a large extent. 208 With relative economic independence of voters, now candidates have to visit the educated and aware voters multiple times during canvassing to seek their votes. In the past, they would only contact the bloc or biradari leader. 209 Ò)NÒ WHILEÒ SOCIALÒ CONµGURATIONÒ ISÒ GRADUALLYÒ CHANGINGÒ ANDÒ ITSÒ impacts are already visible in the political domain, patronage based politics has not ended. 210 205. Views expressed during FGD held on 29 Oct 2020 206. Interview with a Key Informant in Lahore held in October 2020 207. Interview with a Key Informant in Lahore held in October 2020 208. Interview with a Key Informant in Lahore in October 2020 209. Ibid 210. Ibid 73

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan 5.4. Determinants of voting behavior Infrastructural development pays dividends: In addition to biradri ANDÒ CASTEÒ FACTORSÒ SUCHÒ ASÒ DEVELOPMENTÒ WORKÒ ALSOÒ PLAYÒ AÒ ROLEÒ in determining the voting preference. One reason frequently cited by respondents behind the success of the PTI candidate was his contribution to Nankana’s development. 211 He is called the founder of Nankana Sahib and is said to have a role in having Nankana declared a separate district in 2005 by the then PML-Q government in Punjab. A Key Informant shared that Brig Shah also got an approval for the construction of a trauma center in Nankana. Shah also claims credit for getting an interchange connected with Nankana on Lahore-Multan-Karachi Motorway. 212 Similarly Rai Mansab Ali Dogar, winning candidate for PML-N in 2013 elections, has some development works to his credit. 50, 000 votes in the constituency, highest for the party in any constituency. among the people as its candidate. The party’s message, its vigorous campaigning and a strong candidate checked all the boxes for an impressive run. The party using the ruse of‘blasphemy’ against the then ruling party PML-N emerged as the second largest political party among the religious  ÒTHEÒµVE party alliance of old-time JUI-F and JI among others. Religious parties overall have secured 5 million votes which is 10% of the total votes. Of which 1 million votes, which is 9% of the total votes, were cast in central Punjab. Out of this one million TLP took a lion’s share of 80%. TLP alone has secured 2.2 million votes in the country: 7% from Central Punjab(0.8M) – which is one-third of its total vote share. Gallup Pakistan’s Exit Poll reveals that 48% of TLP voters were previously PML-N voters, 18% were new voters whereas 8% previously voted for PTI, 7% PPP, 2%, PML-Q and 3% JI. Of the total 19 seats that PML-N lost with a margin less than the votes received by TLP, there are 10 seats in central Punjab(between NA 68 and 140). 213 211. Interviews with Key Informants in Nankana held on 27 Oct 2020 212. Ibid 213. Fafen/ECP data 74

Nankana: A swinging state Table 5: TLP vote share in 2018 elections All Pakistan 4% Punjab 5% Central Punjab 7% Source: ECP/Gallup data 2.2Million 1.7M 0.8M 5.5. Role and response of political parties Political parties’ contact with workers, voters happens virtually: While exploring the presence of political parties in the constituency it was found out that political parties these days focus more on their representation in traditional and digital media and consider it enough to keep their workers ANDÒ VOTERSÒ ONÒ THEIRÒ!Ò+EYÒ)NFORMANTÒ SHAREDÒ THATÒ PARTYÒ OFµCESÒ EXISTÒ INÒ Nankana and political party backed student unions also have presence in the area. 214 However the organizational structure of the parties on the ground is getting weaker by the day and they are active only close to the elections. The party workers and prospective voters expect support from their respective parties mostly when they have to deal with the police station, public utilities, Individuals are stronger than parties: The Key Informants in Nankana said that political parties do not feel the need of establishing fully FUNCTIONALÒ OFµCESÒ INÒ THEÒ CONSTITUENCYÒ ASÒ THEÒ PATRONAGEÒ NETWORKSÒ OFÒ THEÒ candidates are more entrenched, effective and elaborate. For example both the candidates, Brig Shah and Rai, have support in the form of factions and biradris that have historically voted for them. 215 Even the TLP candidate Pir Syed Afzal Hussain is a custodian of a shrine and has a large number of disciples and followers. A Key Informant in Nankana was of the opinion that the TLP would have obtained a fraction of the votes it got in the 2018 elections if there had been a different candidate. 216 All that the political parties need to do is to keep the electables on their side and use their 214. Interviews with Key Informants in Nankana held on 27 Oct, 2020 215. Ibid 216. Ibid 75

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan 5.6. Future of politics in Nankana Nankana could swing either way: For their elaborate patronage network across the constituency, both Brig Shah and Mansab Rai are likely to remain the favored pick for their respective political parties. Given the razor thin margin of victory for the PTI over PMLN, a lot will depend on how PTI or its fELECTABLEgÒ"RIGÒ 3HAHÒ PERFORMSÒ DURINGÒ THEÒ REMAINDERÒ OFÒ THEÒ µVE YEARÒ The future electoral contest in the constituency shall be between the PTI and 0-, issue that heavily resonates with its voters, if it were to maintain or improve its electoral performance in the constituency. Curtains for PPP: The PPP once known for its robust organizational structure and strong linkages with the party workers seems to have lost the momentum as far as the Punjab province is concerned. The party in Nankana, once called a mini Larkana(second home for Bhuttos), has gone downhill since the 2002 elections when it had 42% of votes. In the 2008 elections, it had 19%, in 2013 a mere 7%, and in the last elections 8.5%, ending fourth for the last two consecutive elections. 217 According to Parveen Akhtar, PPP Nankana Vice President, things for the party changed altogether after the martyrdom of Benazir Bhutto when her husband Asif Ali Zardari took over the control of the party. 218 To her, the party’s 2018 showing in Nankana is better than most other constituencies in Punjab except for south Punjab. TLP may well be a one-time wonder: As for the future of the TLP, the death of TLP founder Khadim Hussain Rizvi is likely to have an adverse impact on the party’s popularity especially when his son Saad Rizvi’s appointment as the party leader has become controversial. It is believed that the TLP is less likely to have a grand showing at the scale of 2018 in the next elections unless it has an equally compelling issue to rally its voters. 219 217. ECP data 218. Interviews with Key Informants in Nankana held on 27 October 2020 219. Views expressed during interviews with Key Informants in Nankana on 27 Oct, 2020 76

Multan: Embracing more of the same 6. Multan: Embracing more of the same 3HRINEÒOFÒAÒ3UµÒSAINTÒ"AHAUDDINÒ:AKARIYAÒINÒ-ULTAN “When we go to the voters, people ask for development schemes such as A politician(Key Informant) in Multan Introduction NA-154 Multan-1 is predominantly a rural constituency. It consists of Multan Cantonment, Multan Cantonment Qanungo Halqa of Multan City Tehsil, and the following Qanungo Halqas of Multan Sadder Tehsil: Bosan, Nurpur, 77

Multan: Embracing more of the same housing societies as a result of which the price of land in the surrounding areas has shot up, making people rich overnight. One Key Informant said that the PTI Member National Assembly from NA-154, a major builder in Multan, has intentionally diverted most of development work towards his lands and SINCEÒ HASÒ IMMENSELYÒ BENEµTEDÒ FROMÒ 224 The PPP leader Ali Hyder Gilani also concurs with the assessment of wealth creation in the constituency but rather attributes this escalation in real estate business to the development work carried out by his father during the latter’s tenure as prime minister of the country. 225 Most in Multan study till secondary level; madrasa education is popular among lower income groups: There are schools in decent numbers and with easy access to all- both girls and boys- but the quality of education is deemed poor by those we spoke to the TRI research team. This has given rise to private sector schools which only the rich can afford, excluding the lower income group. Madrasa is a popular medium of education in the constituency among the lower-income groups as they provide free education as well as boarding. Most of these madrasas are maintained by the Barelvi sect. The Key Informants were unanimous in their view that there is an increase in enrolment in the government schools but most students from lower income groups could not study beyond the secondary level. 226 “Whereas due to a larger family size among the poor, people mostly either send their children to work or a madrasa for free education,” one Key Informant said. 227 “In south Punjab families employed by a landlord or an industrialist are paid per head so the obvious preference for a poor person is to send his children to work rather than school,” another participant concurred. In conformity with the national trends, girls’ enrolment in higher secondary education is on the rise which is partly facilitated by intra and intercity mobility. The 000ÒREPRESENTATIVEÒCONCEDEDÒTHATÒANÒINDEPENDENTÒIN¹UENTIALÒCANDIDATEÒHADÒ got built a girls college in Multan which has further facilitated the girls’ education. All interviewed were unanimous in their view that increase in basic education has not brought about any change in the voting behavior as a vast majority of the constituents remain poor and hence dependent on landlords or employers. 228 224. Ibid 225. Ibid 226. Interviews with Key Informants in Multan held on 9 Dec, 2020 227. Ibid 228. Interviews with Key Informants in Multan held on 9 Dec, 2020 79

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Political parties engage with people through social media: Our discussion with people associated with political parties in the constituency revealed that the internet is commonly available, and cell phones are used by everybody in the area. 229 Political awareness has also increased among the people due to social media. Youth are using technology for online job applications, for marketing of products and getting information on the rates of the agriculture products. Major political parties have WhatsApp groups for communication with their supporters. A PMLN NA candidate claimed to have set up one WhatsApp group for each of the 30 union councils in the constituency. 230 He claims each group has about 100 members. PTI’s Tiger Force, an organization comprising youth, is also working actively in THEÒ CONSTITUENCYÒ ANDÒ CONNECTEDÒ THROUGHÒ 3ONÒ OFÒ ANÒ IN¹UENTIALÒ POLITICALÒ LEADERÒ AFµLIATEDÒ WITHÒ 000Ò CLAIMEDÒ TOÒ BEÒ AMONGÒ THEÒ µRSTÒ TOÒ EMPLOYÒ digital media for communication with the electorate in Multan district. Agriculture, industry provide low paid work: As for employment, most rural workforce is engaged in the agriculture sector. There is chemical, textile, and automobile industry in the area but most of the local people are employed as laborers, agreed all of the study participants. 231 A majority of the people are not highly educated and hence do not have the necessary skills to be employed in technical and well-paid jobs. Educated women, according to them, were now increasingly seeking jobs in the private sector such as banks, shopping malls, restaurants, NGOs etc. Religiosity— Multan keeps religion and politics separate: Multan is a city of saints that has failed to escape the strains of religiosity like the rest of the province. The participation in religious festivals has increased in the younger generation. 232 While one participant was of the view that hardly 5 % people observe fast, another concurring with this view explained that the perceived rise in prayer attendance is because of increase in the population. A majority of people are of the Barelvi sect in the constituency but Shias AREÒ ALSOÒ PRESENTÒ INÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ)NÒ RECENTÒ YEARSÒ Multan District Bar Association adopted a resolution according to which, no non-Muslim, particularly Ahmadis shall not be eligible to take part in the bar elections. All 229. Ibid 230. Ibid 231. Ibid 232. Interviews with Key Informants in Multan held on 9 Dec, 2020 80

Multan: Embracing more of the same contesting This is the same Bar where an advocate Rashid Rehman was assassinated for defending Junaid Hafeez, under trial over blasphemy charges. In the 2018 elections, the Barelvi sub-sect political party- TLP- received 2% of the polled votes. The Barelvi vote historically was polled by Gilanis AFµLIATEDÒ WITHÒ THEÒ 000Ò ANDÒ THEIRÒ REPRESENTATIVEÒ WASÒ CONµDENTÒ OFÒ CLAIMINGÒ back that vote in the next elections. 233 According to him, TLP may not have a strong rallying issue in the next elections. Other participants also agreed that people in the constituency usually do not vote for religious reasons and that support for TLP was a one-off phenomenon. Increase in extremism, according to one participant was due to ignorance, lack of education and increase in the number of madrasas in the district. 234 %LECTORALÑANDÑPOLITICALÑPRO´LE Voter Turnout: While the turnout increased only marginally from 40% in the 2002 elections to 41.5% in the 2008 elections, there was a sharp upturn in the 2013 elections that sustained in 2018. In terms of gender gap in voting turnout, NA-154 recorded a difference of 11% whereas in Multan district it was 10%. Figure 8: Turnout NA-154: 2002-2018 60% 40% 20% 0% Turnout 40% 2002 40% Source: ECP Turnout NA-154: 2002-2018 56% 41.5% 2008 41.5% 2013 56% 57% 2018 57% 81

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Figure 9: Gender gap in turnout in NA 154- GE 2018 Gender gap in turnout in NA-154: Elections 2018 59 54 49 62 57 51 % M F Source: ECP Multan district 54 59 49 NA 154 57 62 51 Electoral trends in Multan District since 1970(See Table 6) PPP’s dwindling electoral support: In the last 5 of the 10 elections, the PPP has returned as the most successful political party from the Multan district. Its share of votes has gradually dropped though as since 1988 IJI/ PML-N established its vote bank here. In the decade of 2,000, due to the SPLITÒINÒTHEÒ0-, the situation and retained 50% of the seats in Multan. It was in 2013 when the party lost political ground to the PML-N and PTI. In the 2018 elections, while the PPP lost three seats to the PTI with a margin of under 5%, it did not was reeling at under 1% of votes in the district before the 2013 elections has emerged as the most successful political party in 2018. PPP’s political ascendency began to weaken after 1988 elections: &ROMÒ THEÒ µRSTÒ ELECTIONSÒ BASEDÒ ONÒ ADULTÒ FRANCHISEÒ INÒ TOÒ THEÒ 000Ò the three elections. In the 1970 elections, for as many as 9 seats in the Multan District, there was a turnout of 73.4% against the national average of 60%. Of 1.25 million votes polled, 44.6% went to the PPP. JUI got 11.5%, MJUP 4.8% of votes. PML-Qayyum bagged 11% of the votes whereas the PMLCouncil got 7%. The PPP got seven seats, the PML Council got one whereas one independent was elected. 235 235. ECP/Fafen data collated by TRI 82

Multan: Embracing more of the same In the 1988 elections, the General Zia administration carved a few districts out of Multan and hence the number of seats went down from 10 to 7. With a turnout of 41%, Multan district polled 0.7 million votes. The PPP got 47% of the votes whereas the IJI got 39%. The PPP nevertheless was able to retain 6 NA seats whereas IJI got 1. 236 Role reversal for political parties in the 1990s: The 1990 elections saw the IJI gradually displacing the PPP. With 47% turnout, 0.8 million votes were cast in the district. The IJI led with 45% of vote share claiming 5 seats. JUP was a new contender which at the back of 10% of the total polled votes got one seat whereas the PPP, under the banner PDA, had to be content with just 1 seat. 237 In the 1993 elections, Multan had 5 NA seats. With 46% turnout, 0.6 million votes were polled. While PPP secured 49% votes, it had 2 seats as opposed to 3 for the PML-N with 46% of the votes in the district. 238 The PML-N further consolidated its position in the district, in the 1997 elections, by claiming all 5 NA seats. Of over half a million votes, it secured 58% of votes polled; the PPP had 36% whereas PTI with just over 6, 000 votes claimed less than 1% of the total tally. 239 PPP resurges in 2,000s: Two major events in the decade- split in PML-N ranks after General Musharraf’s coup in 1999 and Benazir Bhutto’s assassination was given to the district. This election saw a resurgence for the PPP as it got 35% of the total polled votes(0.66 million); the PML-N had 29%, PMLQuaid 26%, MMA 5% of votes whereas PTI went even lower by gaining only 2,000 votes. In terms of seats, PPP had 3, PML-N 2 while PML-Q claimed one seat. 240 In the 2008 elections, some 38% of registered voters voted in the Multan district. PPP, claiming 2% more votes than the previous election, got 37% and had 3 of the 6 seats. PML-N and Q got 22% and 27% votes respectively. The former retained 2 seats whereas PML-Q had 1 seat. 241 236. Ibid 237. ECP/Fafen data collated by TRI 238. Ibid 239. Ibid 240. Ibid 241. Ibid 83

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan PTI displaces PPP: With much healthier turnout of 57%, the PML-N in 2013 elections, led with 42% of the polled votes; PTI trailed with 31% whereas PPP ended up 3 rd by securing 21% votes. PML-N had four seats whereas 242 In the 2018 elections, PTI turned the table on everyone else. Of just under 1.4 million votes with a turnout of 54%, 43% went to PTI, 31% to PML-N, 15% to PPP, 3% to Independents and 2% to TLP. All of the six seats went to PTI. Figure 10: NA 154: Political party vote share- 2002-2018 29% 34% 53% 13% 0% 31% 60% 28% 47% 19% 0% 40% 43% 50% 40% 30% 12% 1% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2008 2013 2018 Source: ECP 10% 17% PPP PML-N PTI PML-Q/Bosan Figure 11: GE 2018: Political party vote share in Multan district Votes Votes PTI 591,144 Source: ECP PML-N 422,071 PPP 210,500 TLP 23,818 IND 44,766 242. Ibid 84

Multan: Embracing more of the same Figure 12: Multan District: Political party seat share- 1970-2018  - PPP/PDA MJUP/JUI/PNA/JUP/MMA/TLP IJI/PMLN PMLQ/PMLCoun/IND PTI 1970 7 2 1977 8 2 1988 6 1 1990 1 1 5 1993 2 3 1997 5 2002 3 2 1 2008 3 2 2 2013 4 2 2018 6 Source: ECP/ National Assembly Elections in Pakistan 1970-2008, Church World ServicePakistan Afghanistan and Free and Fair Elections Network 6.3. Power dynamics in Multan &EUDALÒ POWERÒ ANDÒ RELIGIOUSÒ PIRSÒ OFÒ SHRINES Ò LARGELYÒ DEµNEÒ LOCALÒ power structure in Multan, whereas biradari and religious sect are also relevant determinants of local power dynamics. NA-154 has traditionally witnessed two-way contest between Gilanis who are custodians of a shrine in Multan and Siknadar Bosan, a feudal. While the former banked on their development work, personal connection as well as Barelvi and Shia votes, the latter had a healthy chunk of his biradari vote as well as support from local Some of the major castes in this constituency are Maliks, Baloch, Sewra, Bosan, Mahay, Siddiqui, and Shajra. 243 Vote bloc phenomenon is prevalent in the rural areas whereas in the urban slums such as Jamilabad and Muzfarabad, people vote independent of biradari; they rather consider the provision of services and support in matters of court and thana(police station) while voting. Factionalism(biradari) per say is losing its relevance where people would vote for one candidate merely for the reason that their rival faction was voting for the other candidate, explained one of the Key Informants while others agreed with this explanation. 243. Daily Pakistan Today. NA 154 emerges as a tough constituency.(2018). https://archive. pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/07/18/na-154-emerges-as-a-tough-constituency/.( accessed Mar 8, 2021) 85

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan 86 Table 6: Multan District: Party wise vote share 1970-2018 Multan Since 1970: Party share in votes and seats Election Turnout Polled votes Political parties/alliances PPP/PDA J UI/MJ UP/PNA/ PMLQ/Counc IJ I/ PTI JUP/ PIF/MMATLP/ IND/PML-Q PML-N PML-N %of votes Seats %of votes Seats %of votes Seats %of votes Seats %of votes Seats 1970 %73.4 125 %44.6 7 Million %16.3 %14.7 1+1(PML Council+IND) 1977 %67.5 1M %55.4 8 %43.50 2 1988 %41 0.7M %47.0 6 %39 1 1990 %47 0.8M %42.0 1 %11 1J UP %45 5 1993 %46 0.6M %49.0 2 %0.5 %46 3 1997 %38 0.52M %36.0 %58 5 %0.5 2002 %38 0.66M %35.0 3 %5 %26 1 %29 2 %0.3 2008 %38 0.85M %37.0 3 %27 1 %22 2 2013 %57 %21.0 %42 4 %31 2 2018 %54 138M %15.0 %2 %31 %43 6 Source: ECP/ National Assembly Elections in Pakistan 1970-2008, Church World Service-Pakistan Afghanistan and Free and Fair Elections Network

Table 7: Multan District: Detailed results of 2018 elections 2018 Multan: Embracing more of the same 87 NA Total Votes Turnout M F PTI % PMLN % PPP % TLP % IND % Winner Votes Polled % %% NA154385,233 219,583 57 62 51 74283 %34 20983 %10 64262 %29 37156 %17 PTI NA155485,810 238,047 49 57 41 135872 %57 81016 %34 5590 %2 PTI NA156444,724 222,362 50 57 41 116383 %52 84969 %38 6304 %3 PTI NA157390,725 222,713 57 61 53 77373 %35 62082 %28 70778 %32 5890 %3 PTI NA158436391 248,743 57 59 54 84479 %34 73544 %30 75460 %30 PTI NA159413257 231,424 56 58 55 102754 %44 99477 %43 6034 %3 7610 %3 PTI 2,556,140 1,82,872 %54 59 49 591144 %43 422071 %31 210500 %15 23818 %2 44766 %3 Source: ECP/Fafen/CWS data collated by TRI

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Hence for the political party candidates in the constituency approaching a biradari chief is no longer a preferred choice. Rather local government representatives elected at the union council level have emerged as key players and candidates seem keener on seeking their support. In the discussions with the political leaders and workers in the constituency, it was noted that candidates use a UC as a unit to focus their mobilization and canvassing efforts. The Whatsapp groups of various political parties are organized at the UC level. 244 The Gilanis and Bosan maintain close liaison with these LG representatives who act as a conduit between the constituency candidates and the electorate for the provision of municipal services as well as favors at police stations and courts. These networks do not necessarily fall along the biradari lines and may include voters from more than one castes. The PTI’s winning candidate Dehar is also no stranger to this brand of politics as he previously was an MPA on the PPP ticket. Dehar has been successful in turning the historically two-way contest in NA-154 into a three-way competition in the 2018 elections. In a Key Informant’s view the PTI feudal-cum businessman who has invested his surplus capital in real estate has challenged the established order of the traditional feudal and pir in the constituency. 245 In NA-154 there are 25 to 30, 000 ideological votes for both the PML-N and PTI where PPP’s ideological vote is almost negligible. These ideological vote play a key role in the electoral contest and one major reason for the PPP’s defeat in Multan in the recent elections. Future contest is among the pirs, feudals and traders: Bosan, a landed political leader who as an independent candidate secured about 37, 000 votes(17%). 246 He previously won twice on a PML-Q ticket in the 2002 elections by securing 43% votes. 247 In the 2008 elections while he lost he had 31% of the votes. In the 2013 elections, under the PML-N banner he bagged 47% of the polled votes. 248 His vote base is mostly patronage based which he has been able to hold on to over the last two decades. Hence he remains an important political player in the constituency. The Gilanis too are 244. Interviews with Key Informants in Multan held on 9 Dec, 2020 245. Interviews with Key Informants in Multan held on 9 Dec, 2020 246. ECP data 247. Ibid 248. Ibid 88

Multan: Embracing more of the same actively involved with the politics of the district as well as this constituency that they proudly consider to have a hold on since the early 1950s. The PTI at the moment rides the high wave by having control over all the six NA seats in the district that were won by a difference of 12% of votes. 249 Nonetheless PTI’s performance on the governance front in the remaining part of its tenure will have greater bearing on the possible outcome of the next elections. The PTI NA member represents the business class in the district. The business class or traders mostly sided with the PTI in the 2018 elections, breaking the two- family control over the constituency. The only prediction about the future of politics in the district is that it shall be a narrowly contested three6.4. Determinants of voting behavior Politics is ultimately local: There was massive development work carried out by Gilanis and Bosan particularly in transport, sewerage and roads and as a result they both have been real contenders in the constituency. PTI’s winning candidate in the recent elections was an MPA of the PPP in 2008 elections. He was known as‘deputy prime minister’ in the area and led all development work.“When we go to the voters, people ask for development how is this possible before an election. This is because of corrupt practices of the electable as they offer it as a bribe” said one participant belonging to the JI. 250 Party ticket plus electable make a winning formula: When asked whether ideology was a factor determining the voting behavior, the Participants in the DISCUSSIONÒ HELDÒ INÒ-ULTANÒ WEREÒ DIVIDEDÒ ONÒ THEÒ EXTENTÒ OFÒ THEÒ IN¹UENCEÒ OFÒ ideology. 251 Their estimates varied between 5 to 20% of voters who would vote ideologically. They, rather, were of the view that all the three major parties – the PTI, PML-N and PPP – have substantial votes which when clubbed with the votes that a strong electable brings brightens up a party’s chance at winning. In that sense, an individual candidate’s standing in terms of wealth, IN¹UENCEÒ WITHÒ THEÒ DISTRICTÒ ADMINISTRATIONÒ ASÒ WELLÒ ASÒ HISÒ CHARACTERÒ MATTERSÒ AÒ lot. A classic example, quoted by the KIs was of Gilanis who have won in this constituency multiple times and now even when their party is almost routed 249. ECP data collated by TRI 250. Interviews with Key Informants in Multan held on 9 Dec, 2020 251. Ibid 89

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan out of the whole province, they still manage to win a substantial amount of votes. 252 In the 2018 elections, Gilanis ran on three of the six constituencies in the Multan district and were runner ups in all three of them. A party’s vote bank stays intact as long as it is able to maintain a perception of winnability and has something to show in terms of development work in the constituency which in political parlance is called‘performance.’ The PPP while visibly performed and has candidates of good moral character ANDÒ ITÒ HASÒ SUFFEREDÒ ONÒ THEÒ PERCEPTIONÒ)TÒ NOÒ LONGERÒ ISÒ considered to be a winning party. People follow the‘winning trend’: People vote in the constituency based on a‘trend’ as to who was likely to win. This explains PTI’s landslide win and the PPP’s loss in the district as the media projected the former as a potential winner and the latter as a loser in the run up to the 2018 elections. Women and their voting patterns: While there is no reliable data available on the subject, the Key Informants with a keen eye on political developments in the area were of the view that still some 85% of the women vote based on the decision by the head of household whereas 15% may vote independently. 253 In the recent elections, more women voted independently the women’s participation in political activities such as attending political gatherings and political campaigning has not increased. 6.5. Role and response of political parties Constituency leaders maintain contact with the electorate through digital media: Political party leaders are said to be generally accessible to the citizens. Bosan and Gilanis are more accessible as they have their permanent residences in the area. Except for the JI, no political party has RESPECTIVEÒ RESIDENCESÒ DOUBLEÒ ASÒ THEIRÒ Ò!LLÒ POLITICALÒ PARTIESÒ CONDUCTÒ meetings with the electorate on an as-and-when-needed basis. According to the Key Informants, none of the leading political parties have any institutional mechanism to engage the constituents and listen to their developmental 252. Ibid 253. Interviews with Key Informants in Multan held on 9 Dec, 2020 90

Multan: Embracing more of the same needs. 254 All of them said that the constituency leaders have established Whatsapp groups at the union council levels to stay in touch with the electorate. The mechanism while enough for information sharing purposes is no substitute for programmatic engagement for seeking formal input of the 6.6. Future of politics in Multan PPP has lost out on the perception index: There was a consensus among the Key Informants that people by and large follow the‘winning trend’ and do not want to support a candidate that has no chance of winning at the polls. 255 The PPP in the Punjab province is no longer a‘winning’ party. Moreover, the PTI has replaced the PPP as the‘contender’ along with the PML-N in Multan. The three seats that PPP contested in the district were all fought by the Gilanis who based on traditional vote associated with their shrine, and backed by their patronage maintain strong presence but their long absence from the corridors of power and people’s wont to vote for the winning candidate may erode their strength. Besides while the party has strong candidates in the Gilanis, the party itself has lost the‘ideological’ vote in the region. And there are only a few candidates who stand a chance of winning in Punjab unless they are on a mainstream party ticket, which in this case are PTI and PML-N, which invariably hands them a cache of around 20, 000 to 30,000 votes. south Punjab, two each from Rahim Yar Khan and Muzaffargarh districts. Almost all of these seats were won by the traditional feudal electables belonging to the party. So essentially in south Punjab, the PPP is only as strong as the allegiance of its electables with it. Besides looking to improve its grassroots linkages with the electorate, the party shall need to ensure to keep their winning candidates on its side. In general, the PPP’s performance in the Punjab province in the last two elections suggests that it is virtually on the verge of extinction in the province as in most constituencies in the central and northern region, the PPP candidates ended up as distant third or fourth with a few thousand votes. 256 254. Interviews with Key Informants in Multan held on 9 Dec, 2020 255. Interviews with Key Informants in Multan held on 9 Dec, 2020 256. Shah, Kriti M et al. Pakistan General Election 2018: Analysis of Results and Implications. (2018). Observer Research Foundation. https://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/ 91

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Religious groups have no future in Multan: The religious political parties had some early success in Multan as JUI got 11% of the total votes in 1970 elections in the district whereas in 1977 elections PNA had secured about 44% votes and 2 of the four seats. Later in 1993, JUP, a Barelvi sect supported party, won one seat. And later still in 2002 elections the MMA had 5% of votes. In the 2018 elections, the TLP got only 2% of votes . Religious groups, mainly Barelvi TLP, while present may not be able to create a dent in the overall political picture of the district. PPP representatives in the constituency WEREÒ CONµDENTÒ OFÒ WINNINGÒ BACKÒ THEÒ TRADITIONALÒ"ARELVIÒ SUPPORTÒ INÒ THEÒ NEXTÒ elections. 92

Larkana: Lacking a viable alternative 7. Larkana: Lacking a viable alternative -AUSOLEUMÒOFÒ:ULµKARÒ!LIÒ"HUTTOÒANDÒ"ENAZIRÒ"HUTTOÒINÒ Garhi Khuda Bux, Larkana “Irrespective of the decision of the head of household, generally women in rural Sindh vote for the PPP because of their love and devotion towards Benazir Bhutto.” A Key Informant in Larkana Introduction Larkana district is located in north Sindh. It has four tehsils: Larkana, Rato Dero, Dokri and Bakrani. Total population of the district is 1.52 million, 54 % of which is rural. Larkana Tehsil has a total population of 0.74 million of which 67% are urban. 257 Literacy rate is 58%; 66% for urban and 51% for rural areas. 258 Islam is the religion of majority in this district followed by a minority of Hindu community. 259 The district is represented in the parliament by two national assembly and four provincial assembly seats. PS-11 falls in the Larkana-II National Assembly constituency and includes 93

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Municipal Corporation and Larkana Tapedar Circle of Larkana Tehsil. 260 The constituency has a total of 152, 614 votes; of which 55% are male whereas 45% are female. 261  3OCIALÑANDÑDEMOGRAPHICÑPRO´LE Quality of education has deteriorated over time: According to Alif Ailaan Pakistan’s district education rankings 2016, Larkana with 52 nd rank was the highest ranked district in Sindh. 262 Nevertheless from the interviews with the participants of this study in Larkana, it was revealed that enrollment in the government schools is decreasing mainly due to deteriorating educational standards and the parents’ increasing preference for private schools. Previously, the government schools such as Municipal School and Shah Mahmood School were known for quality education; children of notable families used to study there. Currently, these government schools only cater to children from lower income groups 263 . Outdated syllabi coupled with inability of teachers to cope with the modern teaching techniques have contributed to the failure of government schools in providing quality education. One of the Key Informants said that appointments of teachers on political grounds between 1980 and 1995 are to equally blame for the falling standards of education in the PS-11. 264 Digital empowerment: Aware electorate holds politicians accountable: In line with the national trends, some 70% of the population is believed to have smart phones in the constituency. The increased use of technology and smartphones has led to greater information sharing among the population particularly around the political issues. One Key Informant said that digital MEDIAÒ PLAYEDÒ AÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ ROLEÒ INÒ THEÒ VICTORYÒ OFÒ'$!Ò CANDIDATEÒ-OAZZAMÒ Ali Abassi.“Videos related to PPP leadership, wherein they were crossquestioned by the communities were shared through social media which 260. ECP Delimitation 2018 https://www.ecp.gov.pk/Documents/delimitation2018/31-5-2018 261. ECP 262. Alif Ailaan; Sustainable Development Policy Institute. Pakistan District Education Ranking 2016. https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/alifailaan/pages/537/attachments original/ ( accessed Jan 24, 2021) 263. Interviews held with Key Informants in Larkana on 29 Oct, 2020 264. Ibid 94

Larkana: Lacking a viable alternative win,’’ asserted one participant in the discussion. 265 A media person interviewed for this study noted that there is now an increasing trend of video-documenting a complaint and posting it directly on digital media rather than approaching the traditional media as was the practice in the past. Most of the Key Informants attributed changing political dynamics in the constituency to the increased use of social media.  IN¸ATIONÑ INCREASEÑ THEÑ WEALTHÑ Agriculture is the main source of employment for the rural population of the district. 266 Whereas in the urban areas people are engaged in various economic activities like trade, services, business, and government and private jobs. The district has a well-established canal irrigation system. Two major canals i.e., Rice Canal and Dadu Canal irrigate the land in the district. The Rice Canal is non-perennial while the Dadu Canal is perennial. The katcha area of Larkana, Rato Dero and Dokri tehsils is brought under cultivation during the Rabi season, which ISÒ TERMEDÒ ASÒ ¹OOD BASEDÒ ,ARKANAÒ FALLSÒ INÒ THEÒ!GROÒ#LIMATICÒ:ONEÒ which is good for rice production followed by wheat and sugarcane. The district is known for its quality production of guava and berry. Larkana also and oil mills. 267 In recent year’s people of Larkana witnessed huge investment in real estate through the construction of various housing societies. As a result the price of a impression that inequality in the area has increased. According to one of the Key Informants, constituency leaders of all the political parties had witnessed manifold increase in their wealth. While the economic health of the common people in PS-11 has not improved as they get increasingly lesser share in the people poor. 265. Ibid 266. Sindh Union Council and Community Economic Strengthening Support Programme. ,ARKANAÒ$ISTRICTÒ ,ARKANA$ISTRICT 267. Ibid 95

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan All the participants were of the view that road connectivity has increased people’s mobility and the chance to avail jobs in the private sector in the urban centers. The participants said that the employment patterns have slightly changed among the youth as they have started working for various franchises, have opened mobile phone shops, moved to Karachi and Hyderabad for jobs in the private sector. Others have started farming such as cultivation of rice and guava orchards. One opinion was the Sindh Government was not encouraging industrial growth which has the potential to offer more jobs to the youth. All the participants noted that female literacy has increased in the area. Due to economic pressure some of the taboos about women have also broken and now they are seen to be working as salespersons, and in banks. Increased religiosity disrupts harmony, impacts economic activity: There was a general agreement among the Key Informants that religiosity is growing among the people in the district. Historically as well north Sindh was religiously inclined but it was by and large tolerant of religious and sectarian differences. One view was that since people lack any recreational  THEYÒ µNDÒ NOÒ BETTERÒ USEÒ OFÒ THEIRÒ TIMEÒ THANÒ TOÒ INDULGEÒ INÒ RELIGIOUSÒ festivals, a trend that has recently picked up in the area, or in subversive activities. On March 16, 2014, a mob set a worship place(dharamshala) of (INDUÒCOMMUNITYÒONÒµREÒANDÒDAMAGEDÒSOMEÒSTATUESÒOFÒ(INDUÒDEITIESÒINÒANÒ adjacent temple in Jinnah Bagh area of Larkana. 268 While on the one hand hand a majority of the people including workers of religious groups and political parties supported the aggrieved Hindu community particularly in the aftermath of the afore-mentioned incident. Political parties, at some level, are also seen to be part of the problem as they try and capitalize on these social and sectarian cleavages. 269 Incidents such as the attack on dharamshala, FORCEDÒ CONVERSIONSÒ ANDÒ SUBSEQUENTÒ MARRIAGESÒ OFÒ(INDUÒ GIRLSÒ RE¹ECTÒ THATÒ Sindh is falling in the hands of extremism. This trend is not without its social and economic costs. Hindus who constitute about 10% of Larkana’s total population own around 40% of businesses in Larkana. 268. Hasan, Syed Raza.(INDUÒTEMPLEÒSETÒONÒµREÒINÒ0AKISTANÒOVERÒBLASPHEMY(2014). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-hindu-idUSBREA2F0GT20140316( accessed Jan 25, 2021) 269. Views expressed by a Key Informant in Larkana 96

Larkana: Lacking a viable alternative While historically Hindus and Muslims have remained in peace in the district, since the dharamshala incident, the Hindu community is feeling insecure. Resultantly, the economic activity in Larkana is not as robust as it was in the past. 270 JUI-F gains a toehold in PS-11: Religious political party JUI-F is ranked as the third largest party after PPP and PPP(Workers) in the constituency. Apart from JUI-F, JI and Tablighi Jamaat are also active in the area. Hence the trend of daily prayers, fasting, purdah(veil) among women is growing. Celebration of annual national days such as Independence Day, Defense Day and other religious days by different religious sects/ political parties is seen to be a recent phenomenon introduced by religious groups. An interviewee AFµLIATEDÒWITHÒ*5)&ÒSAIDÒTHATÒHISÒPARTYÒHASÒFOURÒTOÒµVEÒTHOUSANDSÒVOTESÒINÒTWOÒ of the 15 union councils.“JUI started gaining roots among the people of this constituency when Arbab Raheem, the then chief minister of Sindh would visit and stay in a madrasa run by a JUI-F leader,” claimed one of the study participants. All the Key Informants were unanimous in their view that the vote bank of religious political parties will only increase in the future. %LECTORALÑANDÑPOLITICALÑPRO´LEÑ Voter Turnout among the lowest in Sindh province: &ORÒ THEÒ µVEÒ consecutive elections since 1988, PS-11 has posted higher than the average turnout for the province of Sindh. However since the 2008 elections, the turnout in the constituency is consistently lower than the province average. As for the gender gap, 34.7% women voted in the 2018 elections as opposed to 46% of men. Women in this constituency on average voted 7% less than the average female turnout in Sindh province(42.5%). 271 270. Ibid 271. Fafen’s Election Observation report, Voter Turnout in GE 2018 97

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Figure 13: Voter turnout comparison between PS-11 and Sindh province: 1970-2018 Voter turnout comparison between PS-11 and Sindh: 1970-2018 PS-11 Sindh 1970 28 58 1988 45 42 1990 46 43 1993 47 28 1997 38 31 2002 44 37 2008 24 44 2013 41 53 2018 41 46 Source: Election Commission of Pakistan Figure 14: Gender gap in turnout in 2018 elections 50 40 30 20 10 0 P-11 Male PS-11 Female Female Turnout in Sindh Elections 2018 46.3 34.7 42.5 Source: Fafen’s Election Observation report, Voter Turnout in GE 2018 Larkana, traditional stronghold of PPP: NA-200, Larkana-I, being the HOMEÒCONSTITUENCYÒOFÒTHEÒ000ÒFOUNDERÒ:ULµKARÒ!LIÒ"HUTTOÒHASÒREMAINEDÒ the party’s stronghold since the 1970 elections and which it never lost. In the 2018 elections PPP won the other NA constituency(NA-201, LarkanaII) by a margin of 28, 000 votes beating the GDA candidate. Three of the four provincial assembly seats too went to the PPP by a collective margin of some 45, 000 votes. 98

Larkana: Lacking a viable alternative Table 8: NA-200 Larkana-I winners- 1970-2018 Year Constituency Candidate 1970-1977 Formerly NA-163:ULµKARÒ!LIÒ"HUTTO 1988- 1997 Formerly NA-164 Begum Nusrat Bhutto 2002-2013 Formerly NA-204 PPP’s candidates <?> 2018 NA-200 Bilawal Bhutto Zardari Source: Election Commission of Pakistan; Fafen/ Church World Service- Afghanistan/Pakistan National Assembly Elections in Pakistan, 1970- 2008 The surprise defeat in PS-11: PS-11 proved an exception in the 2018 elections. The GDA’s Moazzam Ali Abbasi beat Jamil Ahmed Soomro of PPP by 5,500 votes in the by-elections of October, 2019. Earlier, in the 2018 general elections, the GDA candidate had defeated the PPP’s Nida Khuhro by 10, 000 votes. The by-elections in the constituency came after the deseating of the winning candidate by the Supreme Court in August, 2019 for concealment of assets. After the elections, the PPP Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari insinuating foul play had remarked:“Despite all this political engineering PPP has reduced the GDA/JUIF/PTI lead by 5,000 votes in less than a year.” 272 However, the defeat was considered a major political upset. 7.3. Power dynamics in Larkana "IRADARIÒ ANDÒ CASTEÒ AREÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ DETERMINANTSÒ OFÒ POWERÒ DYNAMICSÒ INÒ THEÒ northern Sindh. The Key Informants in Larkana were of the opinion that 30 to 40% of the people in the constituency still vote based on biradari/caste. They however thought that social media will dent this practice in the near future. 273 Bhutto, Rind, Bhugio, Sheikh, Unnar, Chandio, Magsi, Soomro, Memon and Kalhoro are the major clans in the district. 274 The Key Informants also reported large-scale in-migration in Larkana from the rural areas which has changed the demographics in PS-11. In their view, the migrants from the rural areas 272. Daily TheNews. PS-11 by-polls: GDA’s Moazzam Ali retains seat by defeating PPP in its stronghold.(2019). https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/542467-ps-11-by-polls-gdasmoazzam-ali-abbasi-defeats-ppp-in-its-stronghold( accessed Jan 10, 2021) 273. Interviews held with Key Informants in Larkana on 29 Oct, 2020 274. Ò 2ELIEFÒ 7EBÒ$0 Larkana-Sindh.pdf( accessed Dec 25, 2020) 99

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Historically the chiefs of Larkana tribes decided on a collective offering of electoral support on behalf their communities. The PPP has had support among a majority of these tribes/castes which is manifested in landslide victories for the PPP since the 1970 elections. This trend started to show AÒ SLIGHTÒ CHANGEÒ INÒ THEÒ ELECTIONSÒ WHENÒ THEÒ 000Ò FORÒ THEÒ µRSTÒ TIMEÒ LOSTÒ a provincial assembly seat in the district. The party lost a by-election in the same constituency in 2019 to the GDA candidate. Although the vote bloc phenomenon is generally associated with the rural voters, urban vote bloc arrangement was observed in PS-11. Larkana Awami Ittehad brought all the anti-PPP forces-- GDA, JUI, PTI-- together at one platform against the PPP. Sindh Brohi Itehad and Meerani Itehad comprising two major castes were part of this alliance and voted against the PPP. During the interviews, it was found out that the Sheikh community was not happy with the choice of the PPP candidates both in the 2018 elections and later THEÒ BY 4HEÒ IN¹UENTIALÒ 3HAIKHÒ COMMUNITYÒ OFÒ ,ARKANAÒ ASSOCIATEDÒ with business, which has traditionally been supporting the PPP, wanted one of its own as a candidate and had opposed the PPP’s nominee, Nida Khuhro, for her‘poor performance’ as local government representative in the past. The PPP’s by-election candidate also was considered a weak contestant. 275 On both these occasions, the party did not take into account the opinion of constituency workers as well as their supporters which caused them this defeat. 276 7.4. Determinants of voting behavior The political dynamics in the constituency seems to have changed over the last one decade which manifests itself in consistent lower turnout and a subtle yet gradual increase in the share of votes for the anti-PPP political merits attention. Our discussions with the Key Informants in the constituency reveal the following as the possible causes for this unforeseen loss to the PPP. 277 275. Tunio Hafeez.(2018) . Express Tribune.  PPP GOES ASKING VOTES SAFE LARKANAÒ ACCESSEDÒ Dec 15, 2020) 276. Interviews held with Key Informants in Larkana on 29 Oct, 2020 277. Interviews held with Key Informants in Larkana on 29 Oct, 2020 100

Larkana: Lacking a viable alternative Politics of exclusion: The discussants in Larkana were of the view that politics largely now is the domain of the rich class.“You need PKR 4-5 crores (40-50 million) to contest an election which is possible only for less than 1% of the population. The system excludes 99% of the people from the competition,” said one of the interviewees. 278 The ideological worker of the PPP as a result is disgruntled with the politics as they feel excluded. Lack of health services angered voters: Larkana was in the news for the outbreak of HIV epidemic in the adjoining tehsil of Ratodero in 2018 affecting over one thousand children and adults with no drugs available for their treatment. People died of rabies and snake bites with hospitals being short of the vaccines. Similar state of poor health facilities in the PS-11 had angered mainly the urban voter. All the discussants agreed that road connectivity from rural to urban centers had improved, however, they differed on the conditions of hospitals and schools. 279 While one Key Informant was of the view that they are in better condition as compared to the past, others complained about their deteriorated state. 280 How do women vote in Sindh Assembly constituency PS-11? While most of the Key Informants 281 thought that women do not exercise any agency while voting as that decision is taken at the household level by the male head of the family, there was one view that“irrespective of the decision of the head of household, generally women in rural Sindh vote for the PPP because of their love and devotion towards Benazir Bhutto.” He argued that due to this reason political parties’ agents keep a keen eye on women polling stations during the election. 7.5. Role and response of political parties Political parties have active presence in the constituency: The PPP, PPP(Workers), JUI-F and PTI – have their active presence in the PS-11. Constituency leadership of all these political parties is accessible to the citizens. Political parties engage with citizens on an as-and-when needed basis. The JUI-F and GDA are relatively more active in raising voice for public needs such as infrastructure, hospitals and other public issues. The Key 278. Ibid 279. Ibid 280. Interviews held with Key Informants in Larkana on 29 Oct, 2020 281. Interviews with Key Informants in Larkana held on 29 Oct, 2020 101

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan Informants 282 feel that the political parties lack a programmatic approach to development and do not formally engage with their voters to seek their input while formulating policy response to core issues such as education, health, and employment. !NÒ INTERVIEWEEÒ AFµLIATEDÒ WITHÒ THEÒ 000Ò INFORMEDÒ THATÒ THEYÒ HAVEÒ FORMEDÒ AÒ Whatsapp group at each UC level for information sharing and raising concerns within the party as well as with the party’s top leadership. 283 Nonetheless it was observed that such online forums mostly remain restricted to sharing of messages and video clips that show their political rivals in a bad light. To systematically address the concerns of the citizens and have their input in policy programming, political parties will need to adopt a more coherent and institutionalized approach. 7.6. Future of politics in Larkana PS-11 lacks a viable alternative: Low voter turnout in the constituency for three consecutive elections(from 2008 to 2018) may well be due to the PPP’s traditional voter’s disillusionment with the party. While the Sindh province in general has registered lower than the national turnout, the PS-11 constituency goes even lower than that- something that the party in power since 2008 should think about. Voices from within the constituency opine that If the PPP in the short term pays attention to the civic services, and listens to voters while deciding on a candidate for the constituency and in the long term, creates an environment where the youth have more opportunities for gainful employment, it could reclaim the lost space. This particular constituency is not just arithmetic but has great symbolic SIGNIµCANCEÒFORÒTHEÒPARTYÒANDÒFORÒTHEÒMORALEÒOFÒITSÒWORKERSÒACROSSÒTHEÒPROVINCEÒ as well as the country. At a time when nationally its political fortunes are in doldrums nothing could resurrect its image more than a better showing on its home turf. And it is not unachievable given that the party already has µRMÒCONTROLÒOVERÒµVEÒOFÒTHEÒSIXÒCONSTITUENCIESÒINÒ,ARKANAÒWITHÒAÒCUMULATIVEÒ unassailable lead of about 100, 000 votes. Another factor that favors the PPP is that the incumbent GDA MPA does not have access to the provincial development funds. Neither is the federal government of PTI likely to offer him any support in this regard. And if 282. Interviews held with Key Informants in Larkana on 29 Oct, 2020 283. Ibid 102

Larkana: Lacking a viable alternative lack of development and civic services was the reason for the electorate to move away from the PPP, the alternative is not of any help either. Under the circumstances for the near future, PPP shall be a safer bet for the PS-11 people as there is no alternative to the PPP on the horizon. 103

Conclusions 8. Conclusions The political behavior of a Pakistani voter has undergone substantial changes. Given complexity and diversity of demographic patterns, the political trends appear non-linear and nuanced. Four constituencies observed under this study analyzed with the results of recently held elections and public opinion surveys give us some pointers to paint a picture of political dynamics in Pakistan. At macro level, the government’s performance(developmental work such as roads and transport infrastructure, power projects, investment in health and education; employment opportunities, supply of daily commodities at affordable price; maintenance of law and order and provision of justice) has emerged as a key determinant of political choice during elections. Other important determinants include a party’s ability to provide targeted CONSTITUENCYÒ LEVELÒ CANDIDATESÒ ANDÒ AÒ PARTYgSÒ STANCEÒ ONÒ SPECIµCÒ POLICYÒ Moreover, a voter’s choice is also determined by a curious interplay of certain social factors such as religion/sect, region, and ethnicity and level of education and economic status. ‘Performance’(or‘delivery’ as per the political parlance) by the incumbent party has remained a major consideration for a voter before making a decision as the key proxy indicators of a government’s performance mostly negatively  NOÒ CIVILIANÒ GOVERNMENTÒ HASÒ EVERÒ BEENÒ ABLEÒ TOÒ FULµLLÒ ASPIRATIONSÒ of its constituents and hence no single political party returned to Islamabad for two consecutive terms in its entire electoral history. Curiously enough, this is different for the provincial governments as PPP has returned for the third consecutive term in Sindh while PTI for the second time in KP despite the fact that post-18th Amendment, provincial governments have a major role in public sector development. This dichotomy in electoral behavior of rejecting one incumbent at the national level while accepting the other at the provincial level needs probing. 105

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan According to most analysis, as well as the pattern emerging out of the bypolls held between 2018 elections and now as well as the cantonment board elections, not voting a party in for a consecutive second term at the national level is what is likely to stay in course during the next elections. Patronage has been another important factor in Pakistani polls. Rural populations with their lives intertwined with courts and police stations can never negotiate the labyrinth of justice without the political backing, and hence they offer electoral support to whoever has the means to watch their backs vis-à-vis these two state institutions. Sometimes an occasional employment and a small grant for paving of a street or laying of a sewer line in a neighborhood also ensure electoral favors for the patron politician. In the absence of a programmatic approach to providing civic services to the citizens, seeking patronage remains the most viable option for citizens to negotiate their space with vis-a-vis the state institutions. This works well for the political class as well. This trade off of state and private patronage with electoral support makes the vast number of rural constituencies an electables’ haven who specialize in brokering patronage. Rampant poverty, exacerbated by the institutionalized inequality encourages retail vote buying through material inducements among the lower income groups both in rural and urban areas. This is an unfortunate reality that exists across the country and favors anyone with deep pockets. This practice shall continue unless the poor segments of society have the means at their disposal to rise above meeting their basic needs. Party loyalty although ranks lower on a voter’s priority list, it rakes in a healthy chunk of votes for the party’s candidate which when combined with the candidate’s own vote bank(earned through provision of patronage) makes for a healthy recipe for victory. Party loyalty is hugely relevant for the major political parties such as PPP in the context of Sindh, and PTI and PML-N in their respective strongholds which overlap in case of Punjab. Also, relative strengthening of political party’s brands and their ideologies have nudged out the Independent candidates as major players from political contests. In the future, only fewer Independents are likely to emerge successful from certain pockets of southern Punjab and rural Sindh. Religiosity is increasing among all segments of the society. This increase is more pronounced among the upwardly mobile lower/middle classes. Responding to the rightest leanings of the electorate, the mainstream political parties 106

Conclusions make an elaborate effort at public display of piety and employing religious jargon and aligning party’s manifesto to religion. Hence, in all matters religion, major political parties take a cautious route in their messaging and deal in such optics that align with the worldview of the majority Sunni population comprising both Barelvis and Deobandis. Correspondingly, the religiously inclined voter has also historically acted as a rational voter and chose to vote for one of the mainstream political parties instead of religio-political parties who seldom had an opportunity to form a government and hence have little access to the patronage resources. There are always one-issue voters who in most cases are undecided about their choice and upon listening to political discourse choose to vote over a hot issue close to the elections. The issue of blasphemy espoused by PTI and TLP before and close to the 2018 elections is one example of taking AWAYÒ AÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ CHUNKÒ OFÒ 0-,.Ò POTENTIALLYÒ DEPRIVINGÒ THEÒ PARTYÒ another chance at ruling. This goes to show that in a climate of intense political polarization and disinformation, rigorous campaigning can sway the PTI successfully used an explosive issue of blasphemy against the PML-N in 2018 polls, whereas PML-N also exploited the issue of chronic power outages in the 2013 elections and“ending darkness” was one major plank of its election campaign which objective analysts thought was one major reason behind its success. So one-issue voter is a constant in every election. However it is a tricky bargain for a political party to bank its entire campaign on one-issue. A classic example of failure of one-issue campaign of‘change’ by PTI came in 2013 polls when, contrary to all the hype, it ended up winning only 30-odd seats in the National Assembly. A major creeping change, both at the local and the national levels, is gradual DECREASEÒ OFÒ THEÒ IN¹UENCEÒ OFÒ CASTEÒ ANDÒ BIRADARIÒ ASÒ AÒ MAJORÒ DETERMINANTÒ of political choice. Over the course of a dozen elections to the National Assembly, the voter has evolved into a rational thinker. S/he thinks‘local’ but not in terms of traditional horizontal structures such as caste and biradari but municipal services and patronage. The voter now overwhelmingly makes individual choices bypassing the group bonds based on caste and biradari. Even when in constituencies such as Nankana and Larkana where biradaris does not earn a candidate support from a certain biradari unless he is able to 107

Changing Patterns of Political Dynamics in Pakistan combine it with an elaborate patronage networks or has some development projects in health, education and infrastructure to his name. Due to relative economic empowerment that came on the back of improved literacy, women have begun to vote independently. In case of Nankana, Lyari and Larkana many women were reported to vote independently of their behavior of women. A more nuanced study of other rural constituencies may portray a similar picture as regards women’s voting behavior as was witnessed in the above mentioned three constituencies. As for the role of province and ethnicity, ethnicization of politics has taken µRMÒ ROOTSÒ INÒ 0AKISTANÒ SINCEÒ RESTRICTINGÒ LEADINGÒ PARTIESÒ PARTICULARLYÒ000ÒANDÒ0-, POLLSÒ since the 2018 elections and recently held cantonment board elections have further cemented the three leading political parties’ position in their traditional strongholds. There is less likelihood of the mainstream political parties(PTI, PPP and PML-N) making a major breakthrough outside of their existing power centers anytime soon. PROµLEÒOFÒVOTERSÒFORÒTHEÒ04)ÒANDÒ0-, Considering that in the 2018 elections, PTI had a wafer-thin lead over its opponent(PML-N), the fate of the next elections in Punjab could be anybody’s guess. At national level, only marginally, an urban educated younger male voter is more likely to vote for the PTI than PML-N. Conversely, a middleaged, moderately educated rural as well as urban female voter is more likely to prefer PML-N over PTI. education in Sindh is more likely to vote for the PPP. Still voters with similar Finally as regards the outreach of the political parties to the citizens, the parties, while active around the elections time, do not engage with their support base in the intervening period between two elections, and gather and respond to citizens’ service delivery needs. Across the spectrum, the political parties have chosen to take a short route to winning electoral favors: to co-opt the electables to deliver targeted patronage. This lack of organic grassroots linkage at the constituency level between the voters and the political parties is a bane of Pakistani political system that has deprived the electorate of true dividends of democracy. 108

Conclusions Nevertheless there are unmistakable signs that this behavior pattern of political parties will change soon as the expansion of the middle class, exponential increase in teledensity and introduction of high-speed internet have already put the political parties under pressure to explore new ways to provide meaningful political representation to citizens. 109

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Thanks to Joschua Kemper for his editorial support. www.pakistan.fes.de ISBN: 978-969-9675-34-8