Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration Preface For Pakistan, migration is highly relevant. On the one hand, more than 6 million Pakistanis have emigrated, mostly to the Middle East and to Western countries, while at times approximately 5 million Afghan refugees and other migrants from Afghanistan have lived in Pakistan, to name just the two most important crossCurrently, after the fall of the Afghan government and the Taliban’s rise to power in Kabul, many observers and also many governments in different parts of the World fear or expect a new mass exodus from Afghanistan – either for political reasons or because of a potential economic breakdown, which might lead to humanitarian crisis. In this context, the lime-light is on Pakistan, again. International organizations and foreign governments have started to discuss whether Pakistan could again host major numbers of future Afghan refugees, either with or without international assistance. The European Union and several European countries, Germany among Pakistan. Such a discussion may be unavoidable. But any such debate should be based on a deeper knowledge of the historical and current situation of migration to and from Pakistan. Only this can make sure, that the abilities and limits of Pakistan as a host country will not be ignored. This applies to infrastructure, economics, and the political context in Pakistan. We are happy that Dr. Fatemeh Kamali-Chirani, a German-Iranian political scientist currently working for the Sustainable Development Policy Institute(SDPI) in Islamabad, is providing us with the basic facts on incoming and outgoing migration to and from Pakistan. SDPI is an old partner of FES, and we very much appreciate that it has approached us with the suggestion to prepare this paper. We think it can provide solid ground to discuss Pakistani migration, including potential future migration from Afghanistan. We are optimistic this paper will enrich and provide relevant information for the debates in Pakistan, as well as internationally. Abdullah Dayo Programme Coordinator Friedrich Ebert Stiftung(FES), Pakistan October 2021 i

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration Contents Preface.......................................................................................................... i 1. Introduction....................................................................................... 1 2 Types of Migration in Pakistan........................................................ 3 3 Outgoing Migration.......................................................................... 5 3.1. Pakistani Refugees and Asylum Seekers.................................... 5 3.2. Environmental Migrants........................................................... 6 3.3. Pakistani Labour Migrants........................................................ 8 3.4. Irregular Outgoing Migration................................................. 13 4 Incoming Migration........................................................................ 17 4.1. Four Decades of Afghan Refugees in Pakistan....................... 17 4.2 Taliban’s Takeover Situation.................................................... 21 5 Consequences of Migration for Pakistan...................................... 23 6 Conclusion: Developing Cooperation-based Migration Policy in Pakistan............................................................................ 25 References................................................................................................. 29 Interviews.................................................................................................. 33 iii

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration 1. Introduction After the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan in mid-August 2021, more than 122,000 Afghan nationals were transported to several Western countries till the end of the the neighbouring countries(Sanderson, 2021); the exact number is not known. After the US troop withdrawal deadline of 31st August, many eyes are on Afghans, watching for their likely migration to neighbouring countries. The UN has urged these neighbouring countries to keep their borders open in the wake of a potential Afghan refugees’ crisis(Kenny 2021). Nevertheless, Iran and Pakistan, already sheltering more than three million Afghan refugees each, evinced no interest in hosting more Afghan refugees. Instead, they have tightened security on their borders. Meanwhile, the pressure on Pakistan as the old ally of the US in the war on terror is mounting. Pakistan is even expected to help return normalcy to Afghanistan in the new scenario. Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary-General of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation(NATO), in a press conference on 20 th August 2021, said: … I think Pakistan has special responsibility to make sure that Afghanistan may live up to its international commitment, and that Afghanistan, not once again, becomes a safe haven for international terrorists. Stable Afghanistan is in the interest of all countries not just neighbours as Pakistan.(Farooqui 2021) Mr Stoltenberg’s statement and UNHCR’s expectation are not representing the whole OFÒ THEÒ INTERNATIONALÒ STILLÒ THEYÒ RE¹ECTÒ AÒ SOCIALÒ ANDÒ POLITICALÒ PRESSUREÒ ONÒ Pakistan to take care of the new situation in Afghanistan. The pressure on Pakistan to host big numbers of Afghan refugees will increase if a mass migration out of Afghanistan will begin. Currently, many Afghans are facing an extreme situation and saving their lives must be the priority agenda of the world for humanitarian reasons. At the same time, Pakistan is not just a destination or transit point for external migrants, but also a major source of out-migration. Pakistan’s economy illustrates that the country heavily depends upon remittances of its migrant workers. The country falls among the top 10 emigrant countries with 6.3 million migrants, which is about 3% of its total population(UNDESA, 2019). 1

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration Emigration is so important for Pakistan that the government always tries to develop more legal and institutional frameworks, and it even has a dedicated ministry, the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development. $ESPITEÒ THEÒ GREATÒ SIGNIµCANCEÒ OFÒ THEÒ THEÒ INFORMATIONÒ ONÒ MIGRATIONÒ FROMÒ Pakistan is generally incomplete. Quantitative data, in particular, is either unreliable or outdated. Partly, the issue is raised when it comes to illegal or undocumented migration, for which only estimates can be made. However, complete set of data about legal migration is also not available. This report aims to enhance the understanding of experts and civil society members who work on South and Central Asia as well as the Middle East or follow the news about Pakistan and the region closely. Its key goal, however, is to provide an overview of incoming and outgoing migration to and from Pakistan as a solid base of discussion for policy makers and journalists when considering the possibility of a major number of additional Afghan refugees in the future. It gives an overview of different types of migration in Pakistan and discusses the consequences of a possible also be addressed. 1. What types of migrations exist? 2. What are the push and pull factors behind outgoing and incoming migration of Pakistan? 3. 7HATÒ HAVEÒ BEENÒ THEÒ CHALLENGESÒ ANDÒ DIFµCULTIESÒ OFÒ!FGHANÒ refugees in Pakistan since the 1980s till now? 4. What may be the consequences of outgoing and incoming migration for Pakistan? Methodology This report analyzes primary and secondary data from various sources. Secondary DATAÒ HASÒ BEENÒ COLLECTEDÒ TOÒ IDENTIFYÒ THEÒ SPECIµCÒ THEMATICÒ AREASÒ WHILEÒ PRIMARYÒ DATAÒ HASÒ BEENÒ COLLECTEDÒ MAINLYÒ THROUGHÒ INTERVIEWSÒ OFÒ 0AKISTANIÒ OFµCIALSÒ ANDÒ Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Germany, who have contacts in Afghanistan. 2

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration 2. Types of Migration in Pakistan During the past few decades, Pakistan experienced migration in different ways. Generally, migration can be categorized as incoming and outgoing. Emigrants use DIFFERENTÒ ROUTESÒ TOÒ REACHÒ THEIRÒ COUNTRIESÒ OFÒ-OREÒ SPECIµCÒ TYPESÒ OFÒ migrants are: 1. Those who migrated from Pakistan and settled in Western Europe, the United States, Canada, and to some extent, East Asia; 2. Those who migrated from Pakistan and settled in the Persian Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iran. 3. Those who used to live on the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan as part of a traditional population exchange between the two countries; 4. Those who migrated from Afghanistan and settled in Pakistan since the beginning of the 1980s, in addition to return movements; 5. Those who migrated from neighbouring countries, particularly Bangladesh, India and Burma, and settled in Pakistan 6. Similarly, there are internal migrants of Pakistan such as: internal labour migrants, people displaced due to climate change and natural disasters, and Migratory movements are diverse in nature. First of all, a distinction must be made refugees or migrants from other countries. Internal migrants and internally displaced SOMEÒFORÒSOCIO or some seek political asylum due to individual, family or tribal oppression. There are additional reasons for internal migration, particularly climate change and natural people, wherein at least 12 million became homeless and migrated to other areas of the country(Lom 2010, p.4). There are additional factors, which shape the decision-making to migrate. Home and destination countries provide different potentials for movement. The individual and family connections of migrants also play a role. Education, job skills, job 3

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration market conditions, and employment arrangement on the one hand and democratic capacities of the destination countries on the other can determine the success of migrants. Three main points are important in the decision making process of potential migrants: Belongings that migrants lose in their home country: Migrants lose moral and material belongings. Material belongings include property, transportable and nontransportable goods whereas moral belongings include social status, kinship, peer groups, social networks, identity, etc. If a person has a good reputation in his village or vicinity, it is not easy to transfer this to another, alien country. 0ROBLEMSÑ ANDÑ DIF´CULTIESÑ THATÑ MIGRANTSÑ Ò 4HEÒ DIFµCULTIESÒ OFÒ MIGRANTSÒ CANÒ be both material and immaterial. Poverty, hardships, unemployment are some of the factors that make people’s stay in their home country less attractive, especially if migrants assume that these conditions will not change in the foreseeable future. There are also political and social factors, i.e. discrimination, exclusion, repression Attractions of destination countries for migrants: The attraction of a potential destination country depends on of the motivation of potential migrants. For those who are primarily interested in attractive or at least adequately paid jobs, economic opportunities of the destination countries will be more important. Those who leave their home country for political persecution will generally value personal security will go to a country that is easy to reach(or at least an accessible transit country). Overall, there is a certain hierarchy of destination countries(most migrants would certainly prefer the USA to Sudan). Countries have different prestige and reputation in the migrants’ eyes. However, economic opportunities in the destination country, entry, and possible residence are of paramount importance. 4

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration 3. Outgoing Migration Generally, emigration refers to people’s movement from their original country/area to a different state or country. Pakistan has at least 6.3 million outgoing migrants(UNDEAC, 2019), who constitute approximately 3% of the total population. The number of Pakistani emigrants in the last decades remained on the rise from 140,000(annually) in 2005 to one million in 2015. In 2019, the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment(BEOE) registered more than 600,000 Pakistani emigrants(IOM, 2020: 4). Outgoing migration of Pakistan can be categorized into(1) refugees and asylum seekers,(2) environmental and labour emigration, and(3) irregular migrants. 3.1. Pakistani Refugees and Asylum Seekers In 2020, there were 20,253 Pakistanis, who applied for asylum in different countries. It is a very small number that corresponds to approximately 0.009% of the population. Italy, Greece, and France were the most favored countries for Pakistani asylum seekers. However, 85% of the applications were rejected, whereas in Thailand and Hungary, most of the applications were approved. Similarly, 147 out of 1,016 Pakistani refugees in Germany were granted asylum. Figure 2 shows that the number of refugees in 2020 decreased because of COVID-19. Even if after lifting the virus-related travel bans, the numbers go up, the total number of applications will remain very small. or Afghanistan, there are 243 Pakistani refugees in India(Tripathi, 2020). These are mostly Hindu and Sikh, who have acquired Indian citizenship(based on the rules of the Citizenship Amendment Act(CAA) of India). There are also some refugees in Afghanistan. In 2019, about 750 Pakistani refugee families(in the Durand line), and approximately 72,000 individuals(in the Gulan camp area) lived in Afghanistan (Azad, 2019). Both Afghan and Pakistan governments claim their citizenship, but not a serious action providing them with citizenship. These refugees mostly moved to Afghanistan after Pakistan’s military operation in North Waziristan in 2014. Many 0AKISTANIÒCIVILIANSÒASÒAÒRESULTÒOFÒTHISÒOPERATIONÒ¹EDÒINTOÒ+HOSTÒANDÒ0AKTIKAÒPROVINCESÒ of Afghanistan. 5

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration Estimating the number of Pakistani emigrants due to environmental changes is not easy or multiple reasons. “It is not like you wake up one day and say ok, this year the weather is so hot, so I am going to pack my things and leave. Environmental changes affect mostly those people who are working on agriculture or tourism. Thinking about the social and economic dynamics and possibilities of people in these sectors, they might not afford to migrate internationally, but they might Step by step. Then maybe go to abroad. If they can afford it. That is the trend. But suddenly you cannot expect that a person from a village goes to abroad. If there is already a culture of migration in the region or district, then going abroad for environmental reasons is an option. It is very contextual.” (Ayesha Qaisrani, personal communication, 23 August 2021) 3.3. Pakistani Labour Migrants Compared to Pakistani refugees, asylum seekers and environmental migrants, the number of Pakistani labour migrants is much higher. This group has a major impact on the domestic employment and labour market situation, domestically and internationally. The exact number of labour migrants based on the information of those who were registered between 1971 and 2019, the number was 11.3 million(BEOE, 2020: 5). Pakistani labour migrants mostly (95%) go to the Persian Gulf for work. The Pakistani global diaspora was estimated 13 million often mentioned(CIMRAD, 2020: 1). 8

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration The remittances received by Pakistan during the last 10 years illustrate a continuing increase. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has put severe pressures on the economy of many countries, including Pakistan, still remittances towards Pakistan did not decrease. It means that despite a drop in number of yearly labour migrants’ (from 600,000 to about 200,000), the money sent back from the labour migration increased. Dr Shafqhat Munir, Senior Research Fellow of the SDPI, describes this phenomenon in the following words: “The remittances are increasing because those who work overseas are sending more money to support not only their families but also relatives and friends. In the pandemic, the needs of people for medication, and food have increased that cost more money. So, remittances are increasing not because of the migration from Pakistan grows higher but because of the higher needs of families and social networks of the migrants.. So, more money will be SENTÒ&ORMERLYÒ THEYÒ WOULDÒ SENDÒ SOMEÒ MONEYÒ TOÒ CHARITYÒ INÒ their destination or other countries. Now they send charity too. So amount of charity is at least double than they used to send previously.” (Shafqat Munir, Personal Communication, 28.Aug.2021). Pakistani labour migrants, who want to emigrate legally have to pay a fee and some costs of accommodation in the destination country at the beginning. For working in the Persian Gulf countries, they would pay to an overseas work promoter between PKR 21,125(US$ 201) and PKR 31,524(US$ 301) for a range of costs. According to a study done in 2016, this can be more expensive when migrants want to secure employment directly. Then they pay between PKR 45,575(US$ 435) and PKR 48,524 Pakistani labour migrants overall can be distinguished into three groups: First of all, there is a labour migration to the Arab oil countries on the Persian Gulf, which has been an important economic factor for Pakistan since the 1970s. They work as middle management specialists. These Pakistani labour migrants work a few years in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar or elsewhere in order to be able to up. For Pakistan, this type of emigration has three main functions: 11

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration 1. it represents a social safety valve, for example on the labour market; 2. ITÒ ISÒ ANÒ IMPORTANTÒ SOURCEÒ OFÒ CONVERTIBLEÒ CURRENCYÒ REVENUEÒ THATÒ BENEµTSÒ THEÒ Pakistani economy through remittances of migrants; and 3. ITÒ SOMETIMESÒ LEADSÒ TOÒ THEÒ IMPORTATIONÒ OFÒ AÒ CONSERVATIVEÒ ORÒ version of Islam by returnees. One can see the impact in their style of dressing especially in women from Shalwar Kameez 1 to Abaya 2 or black Niqab 3 in Pakistan. A second group of migrants consists of people who migrate to western countries, for example to the UK, Europe, Canada or the USA. They usually have different reasons for migration: some have socio-economic reasons or lack of prospects in Pakistan; for some violence is the reason. Some of theme hope for an easier or better life in an industrialized country. However, a part of this group has personal relationships through family or friends in a destination country, which makes the step of emigration psychologically and practically easier. This form of migration offers Pakistan a certain degree of relief from the demographic pressure. Considering that Pakistan has a very high birth rate. It also provides economic relief for Pakistan(albeit TOÒ AÒ LESSERÒ EXTENTÒ COMPARINGÒ TOÒ THEÒ µRSTÒ GROUP ANDÒ OPENSÒ UPÒ OPPORTUNITIESÒ FORÒ economic exchange between the domestic economy and Pakistanis abroad. A study INCLUDINGÒ THOSEÒ WHOÒ AREÒ EMPLOYEDÒ BYÒ ANDÒ /RACLEiÒ (South Asia Investor Review, 4. May 2014). In recent years many Silicon Valley Pakistanis assisted in entrepreneurship programs that facilitate learning business skills for young interested citizens of Pakistan. A cultural effect of this migrant group lies in modernizing Pakistan. A third group of Pakistani migrants consists of people who have to leave the country due to political or religious persecution, discrimination, loss of a perspective in life or psychological pressure and physical danger and related reasons. We described this group earlier in the section on Pakistani refugees and asylum seekers. As mentioned before, Christians, Shias and Ahmadis are among the Pakistani asylum seekers. This group change the cultural image of Pakistan abroad by representing it as a radical or conservative country or having no tolerance for different beliefs and religions, although this might not be always the case. Mallala Yousufzai is a good case. She left the country to get medical treatment after the TTP attempted to assassinate her in 2016. In her long-term staying in the UK she initiated activities to help women 1.(women) Shalwar kameez is a traditional combination dress worn by women in South Asia, and Central Asia, including Pakistan. Shalwar is trousers and kameez is a long shirt or tunic mostly colourful and styly. 2. Abaya or abayat is black and may be either a large square of fabric draped from the shoulders or head or a long kaftan. It is used to cover the whole body of women. 3. Niqab or Nighab is a veil worn by women in public, covering all of the face apart from the eyes. 12

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration and children to get education. Her activity is counted as a movement against radical Islamism rather than a counteraction making a negative image for Pakistan. She visited Pakistan once in 2018. 3.4. Irregular Outgoing Migration Another category of migration has some overlaps with the other three types takes place outside the laws, regulations, or international agreements governing Pakistan due to its geographical location is considered a source, transit and destination country for irregular migrants. The number of those who illegally come to Pakistan to stay(for some time) and/or pass through it to go to a third country is not reliably known, but it is estimated at around 300,000 per yearwho mainly use smugglers’ networks(National Initiative, 2020: 1). Types of individuals who illegally migrate from Pakistan according to Kusar(2008: p. 7) are as follows: • Afghans and Pakistanis who want to go to the UAE and the West • Young boys who want to go to the UAE and Saudi Arabia for forced labour and as‘camel jockeys’, • 0EOPLEÒWHOÒUSEÒ0AKISTANÒASÒAÒTRANSITÒCOUNTRYÒFORÒBEINGÒSMUGGLEDÒANDÒTRAFµCKEDÒ between the Far East and the Middle East, • INÒ WHOÒ AREÒ TRAFµCKEDÒ FROMÒ Central Asian Republics and Myanmar for prostitution, • and women for prostitution. Irregular migration from South and Central Asia to Western Europe usually takes place via a variety of networks and different routes. The following map, Figure 5, displays the routes which are crossing Pakistan: 13

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration 4. Incoming Migration A small portion of the population of Pakistan has foreign origin. According to estimates of the UNHCR(UNHR-sheet, 2020: 1) there are very few immigrants from Somalia(181 refugees), asylum seekers 4 (9,717), other(341 refugees). Pakistan also has irregular incoming immigrants. These are people who are neither citizens of Pakistan, nor legally resident foreigners. The National Aliens’ Registration Authority and regularizes their status by issuing them with a special renewable identity card for foreigners. According to NARA’s estimates, the number of irregular immigrants stood at 3.35 million in 2004(ICMPD 2013). A majority of such irregular immigrants originated from the former East Pakistan, and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. The number of Bengalis was estimated to be 1,030,000 and of Burmese as 100,000 in 2009, according to EBDM(Shah, 2020: 61). The ethnic Bengalis and Burmese live mostly in Karachi. Some of the immigrants are also a part of transit migration through Pakistan to the Persian Gulf or to Europe or North America. In addition to entry by air and sea, which overall is only of secondary importance for migration to Pakistan, there are in particular the following entry options by land: Wagah border(India), Wagah railway station(India), Khokaropar railway station(India), Taftan(Iran), Chaman (Afghanistan), Torkham(Afghanistan), Sust(China), BP 250(Iran). By far the largest group of immigrants to Pakistan are refugees from Afghanistan. Because of the new situation of Afghanistan and the possibility of having more Afghans in Pakistan, the issue of Afghan refugees is discussed here in more details. 4.1. Four Decades of Afghan Refugees in Pakistan !CCORDINGÒ TOÒ 5.(#2Ò AROUNDÒ MILLIONÒ!FGHANSÒ AREÒ OFµCIALLYÒ REGISTEREDÒ in Pakistan. Adding to that those Afghans who are not documented(about half a million to 1.5 million) and the new waves of Afghans coming after the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan(some experts expect approx. 700,000), one can estimate 4. An asylum seeker is someone who is seeking international protection but whose claim for refugee status has not yet been determined. In contrast, a refugee is someone who has been recognised under the 1951 Convention relating to the status of refugees to be a refugee. 17

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration above 3 million Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Consequently, Afghans in Pakistan are the second-largest refugee population in the world after the Syrians in Turkey. Afghans, who enter Pakistan from the land usually use Torkham(province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and Chaman(province of Baluchistan) border crossings. These borders formerly were open and had no fences, but now they are fenced. The main entry points are now under strict control. Based on a survey of 2020 the number of female Afghan refugees is less than men. 54% of Afghan registered refugees are men and 46% women(UNHCR- update, 2020). Most of Afghans are living in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(58.1%) and the rest in Baluchistan(22.8%), Punjab(11.7%), Sindh(4.6%), Islamabad/Federal Capital Territory(2.4%) and Gilgit-Baltistan(0.4%)(UNHCR-overview, 2021). UNHCR supported building 54 Refugee Villages for registered Afghan refugees. 444,439 registered Afghans are living in and 990,947 are living outside such villages. That means 69% are out and 31% are in the Refugee Villages(UNHCRoverview, 2021). UNHCR offered different programs for improving communitybased protection, education, health, livelihood situation of Afghan refugees during the last four decades. Projects like voluntary repatriation(since 2002), and Refugee Affected and Hosting Areas(RAHA) programme(since 2009) are among these efforts(UNHCR-Pakistan, 2020). rest are from the ethnicities of Tajik(6%), Uzbek(3%), Hazara(2%), Turkmen(1%), Baluch(1%), and other ethnicities(2%)(UNHCR-update, 2020). 0ASHTUNSÒBEINGÒTHEÒLARGESTÒETHNICÒGROUPSÒOFÒ!FGHANÒREFUGEESÒISÒPARTLYÒTHEÒRE¹ECTIONÒ of the demography in Afghanistan. The Pashtun ethnic group is the main ethnic group(42%) in Afghanistan(Minority Rights Organisation, n.d.). Additionally, in Pakistan the Pashtuns are the second-largest ethnic group(15%)(Yousaf, 2019: 1). Millions of Afghan refugees have been living in Pakistan for the last 40 years. Initially, the Pakistani state provided them with permission to work and live. At other times Afghan refugees were accused of putting pressure on services and the labour market. They also sometimes were blamed for bringing or developing terrorism inside Pakistan, especially since 2014. Pushing Afghans to return to their country of origin through a repatriation programme started in 2002. It highlights the skewed relationship between Afghan refugees and people and government of Pakistan. 18

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration situation in Afghanistan worsens now that the Taliban are back in control. It’s a crisis that the government said it is unprepared to handle without international assistance Pakistan’s government has recently estimated that the expense of dealing with this situation is over$ 2 billion for a two to three year period. According to Vaqar Ahmed, internal resources and could result in Islamabad sending requests to development PARTNERSiÒ)NÒ!HMEDgSÒ THEÒ REFUGEE RELATEDÒ EXPENSESÒ cooperation in the following examples have been promising and the new situation can weaken them: • bilateral trade volumes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, mainly in provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, • work of sectors such as transport, warehousing and distribution which earn revenues from providing transit services to Afghan-bound merchandise, • trade agreements between Pakistan and countries of Central Asia, including Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan. In his view the current situation of Afghanistan can threaten success in these areas. 22

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration 5. Consequences of Migration for Pakistan The extensive migration from and to Pakistan has positive and negative effects on the country. Some positive aspects have already been mentioned: There is a labour market advantage which creates over 1.2 million new jobs every year in the country. 4HEÒ REMITTANCESÒ HELPÒ BOOSTÒ THEÒ FRAGILEÒ 4HESEÒ AREÒ CONSIDERABLEÒ IN¹OWSÒ without which the country’s balance of payments problems would worsen. That is probably the main reason as to why Pakistan actively promotes labour migration. On the contrary, there are some negative effects as well. The biggest one is brain drain. %QUALLYÒ SIGNIµCANTÒ FORÒ 0AKISTANÒ AREÒ THEÒ EFFECTSÒ OFÒ LEGALÒ ANDÒ ILLEGALÒ IMMIGRATIONÒ TOÒ Pakistan, especially of Afghans, whose role in the economy(especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Karachi) is crucial, but they also compete for scarce resources and jobs. In recent years, and particularly in connection with terrorist attacks(even if Afghans are rarely involved), Afghan refugees and migrants have also become a point of contention in Pakistani politics. As discussed above, a new wave of displaced Afghans may be on its way to Pakistan in the future, depending on the future development in Afghanistan, which raises serious concern in the(or at least a large part of) Pakistani society. The country is already under great strain due to economic and political imbalances. At times when the country is looking for more remittances for which the labour migration is the only way, hosting the newly displaced Afghans would add to Pakistan’s economic woes. 4HEÒ BENEµTÒ OFÒ HOSTINGÒ DISPLACEDÒ!FGHANSÒ BYÒ 0AKISTANÒ WOULDÒ INDIRECTLYÒ BENEµTÒ them in Pakistan, there would be no need to move anywhere else. 23

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration 6. Conclusion: Developing Cooperationbased Migration Policy in Pakistan Pakistan is one of the 10 top countries 5 having 6.3 million emigrants(more than 3% of country’s population) across the world. It is not only an outgoing but also an incoming migration country with over three million registered and unregistered Afghan refugees. Currently, after the takeover of the Taliban in Afghanistan and a potential new wave of displaced Afghans, all eyes are on Pakistan again. Pakistan, which itself is a developing country and dependent on its labour emigrants, is supposed to be a geostrategic place to give shelter to displaced Afghans. To receive new Afghans to its land, Pakistan requires not just the necessary resources, but also Overall, it should have become clear that emigration from Pakistan primarily occurs due to four reasons. • 6IOLENTÒ GROUP SPECIµCÒ PERSECUTIONÒ BYÒ NON STATEÒ ACTORS Ò ANDÒ POLITICALÒ ALTHOUGHÒ THEÒ NUMBERÒ OFÒ VIOLENTÒ CON¹ICTSÒ HADÒ BEENÒ decreased considerably since 2009, with the exception of Baluchistan. • 3OCIO market, • Environmental changes do not work alone, but in combination with other social and economic factors, • Weaknesses in the Pakistani governance system, which is partly responsible for the political and socio-economic challenges, cannot be overcome, rather multiplied. Migration policy with regard to Pakistan cannot equally treat all forms of migration, but it must differentiate between the different forms and migrant groups, as all are not equally undesirable. It is better not to deal with migration as a whole, but with certain aspects or its negative consequences. Labour migration is playing a positive role in Pakistan’s economy on the one hand and on the other it has negative consequences like brain drain. 5. The ten countries that have the highest number of emigrants, are: 1. India(15.9 million); 2. Mexico (12.5 million); 3. Russia(10.4 million); 4. China(9.7 million), 5. Bangladesh(7.2 million); 6. Syria (6.2 million); 7.Pakistan(5.9 million); 8. Ukraine(5.8 million); 9. Philippines(5.4 million); 10. Afghanistan(4.9 million) 25

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration Pakistan’s migration policy should be based on two basic approaches, which are not easily or directly accessible to processing by traditional development cooperation: • to work on the general conditions that create migration or asylum seeking’s pressure, and, • 4HEÒ µRSTÒ OFÒ THESEÒ TWOÒ APPROACHESÒ WOULDÒ BEÒ THEÒ CENTRALÒ ONEÒ INÒ THEÒ LONG However, it has the peculiarities of being unsuitable for the short-term control of migration, for which it can only be effective in the long-term. Firstly, the political  ECONOMICÒDEµCITSÒANDÒWEAKNESSESÒINÒTHEÒ0AKISTANIÒ governance structure are decisive factors- but they cannot be remedied in a few months or years. Secondly, it should also be pointed out that reaching political ANDÒDEVELOPMENTÒGOALSÒAREÒNOTÒMIGRATION to migration policy. This is no coincidence: if Pakistan could function well socially, economically, and politically, there would hardly be any reasons for temporary or permanent migration or asylum seeking. It also would be possible to accommodate more incoming migrants, like Afghans. It can, therefore, only be recommended here to continue to strengthen a development-oriented policy. This would make the country as a whole more stable and resilient in the core areas(e.g., politics, society, economy). In this sense, it should be emphasized and explained why a successful development policy also makes a contribution to migration policy. There are good examples in this regard: stimulating the Pakistani labour market and reducing open and hidden unemployment; overcoming the energy crisis that stands in the way; providing a framework for addressing environmental and climate change issues; an improvement in the social and legal position of minorities; pushing back a culture of religious extremism; developing anti-corruption policies; or fundamental reform of the judiciary and police. All of these would reduce the pressure to migrate ANDÒ TOÒ ¹EEÒ INÒ THEÒ MEDIUMÒ ANDÒ LONG Ò ESPECIALLYÒ IFÒ THEYÒ WEREÒ CARRIEDÒ OUTÒ INÒ parallel. Beyond the long-term and indirect combating of the causes of migration, there are improvement of the placement system for migrant workers in order to reduce the exploitation of those affected(through corruption, etc.); the socio-political support of the families of migrants, especially if they now have to live without their male head of the family; the development of better border management, especially on the Pakistan-Iran borders; Training programme for future migrant workers(crafts,  ÒINÒORDERÒTOÒHAVEÒBETTERÒOPPORTUNITIESÒANDÒHIGHERÒINCOMEÒONÒTHEÒ future labour market and to be able to contribute more to the Pakistani economy after their return. 26

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration achieve direct contributions to control(or even reduce) migration from Pakistan through development cooperation. As long as development policy is effective, it will reduce the pressure of migration in the long-term by helping to reduce economic, social and governance problems in Pakistan. This is not to be underestimated in the long-term. However, development cooperation can only serve to manage migration in the short- term in exceptional cases. Finally, the international organizations and Western stakeholders need to cooperate with Pakistan in the formulation of a proper Afghan-refugee policy. But this is not enough. Some programs such as housing and repatriation which have been implemented by UNHCR, IOM and Pakistani authorities are excellent, but cannot adequately address the multiple problems. There should be projects to connect people of Pakistan and Afghanistan culturally and socially. There is a crucial need to initiate dialogue. Although dialogue cannot solve all problems but at least it can emphasize on what both countries have in common and clarify misunderstandings about sensitive issues such as Afghanistan-India relationship and terrorism. 27

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Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/pak-refugees-head-back-on-fadingcitizenship-hopes/articleshow/79418405.cms?from=mdr UNDESA(United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs)(2019) Table 1. Total migrant stock at mid-year by origin and by major area, region, country or area of destination, 1990-2019. United Nation. UNHCR(20.Aug.2021) UNHCR warns that humanitarian needs in Afghanistan cannot be forgotten, a summary of speech of UNHCR spokesperson Shabia Mantoo, 0ALAISÒ DESÒ.ATIONSÒ INÒ OFµCIALÒ 7EBSITEÒ OFÒ RETRIEVEDÒ www.unhcr.org/news/briefing/2021/8/611f61824/unhcr-warns-humanitarianneeds-afghanistan-forgotten.html UNHCR(28.Feb.2021) Pakistan- Overview of Afghan Refugee Population, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, retrieved from: https://reporting.unhcr. org/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20Pakistan-overview%20of%20Afghan%20 refugee%20population-February%202021.pdf UNHCR(The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)(2020) Global Focus – UNHCR Operations Worldwide – Pakistan, 2020 year-End Results, retrieved from: https://reporting.unhcr.org/pakistan UNHCR(The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)(31.Aug.2020) FACT SHEET – Pakistan, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, retrieved from, retrieved from: https://www.unhcr.org/pk/wp-content/uploads/sites/103/2021/05/ Pakistan-Fact-Sheet-August-2020.pdf UNHCR(The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)(31.Aug.2020) Pakistan- Afghan Refugee Update 1 January—31 August, 2020, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, retrieved from: https://reliefweb.int/report/ pakistan/pakistan-afghan-refugee-update-1-january-31-august-2020 UNHCR(The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)(Dec. 2019) Jochen/AppData/Local/Temp/VolRep%20Update%20Afghanistan%20(31%20 December%202019).pdf UNHR(The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)(2020) UNHR – Iran, 2EFUGEESÒINÒ)RANÒOFµCIALÒWEBSITEÒOFÒ5.(#2 org/ir/refugees-in-iran/  Ò2ECENTÒTRENDSÒOFÒ HUMANÒ TRAFµCKINGÒ ANDÒ MIGRANTÒ SMUGGLINGÒ TOÒ ANDÒ FROMÒ RETRIEVEDÒ 32

Pakistan: Incoming and Outgoing Migration https://www.unodc.org/documents/pakistan/2013.12.26_Research_Report_HTMS_ COPAK_HTMSS_Designed_for_printing.pdf Wolman, Andrew(2013) Asylum for persecuted homosexuals in the Republic of Korea, Foreign migration Review, focus: Sexual orientation and gender identity and the protection of forced migrants, issue 42, pp.30-31 World Data(2020) Asylum applications and refugees from Pakistan, Overview Pakistan, retrieved from: https://www.worlddata.info/asia/pakistan/asylum.php and the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, SAGE Open, January-March 2019: 1 –10, DOI: 10.1177/2158244019829546 Interviews Informant#1, Ayesha Qaisrani, 23.Aug.2021, personal communication, telephone call to Pakistan Informant#2, 24.Aug.2021, personal communication, telephone call to Germany (a female Afghan refugee) Informant#3, 24.Aug.2021, personal communication, Islamabad: in-person interview(a former Pakistani military general) Informant#4, 25.Aug.2021, personal communication, Islamabad: in-person interview(a male Afghan living in Islamabad) Informant#5, Shafqat Munir, 27.Aug.2021, personal communication, telephone call to Pakistan 33

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