Pragmatism, not Dogmatism What Germans think about Migration A Summary of the Study

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – FÜR EIN BESSERES MORGEN A Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung project 2018–2020 Growing social inequality, societal polarisation, migration and integration, the climate crisis, digitalisation and globalisation, the uncertain future of the European Union – Germany faces profound challenges. Social Democracy must provide convincing, progressive and forward-looking answers to these questions. With the project“For a Better Tomorrow”, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung is working on recommendations and positions in six central policy areas: –– Democracy –– Europe –– Digitalisation –– Sustainability –– Gender Equality –– Integration Overall Coordination Dr. Andrä Gärber is the head of the of Economic and Social Policy Division at the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Project Management Severin Schmidt is a policy advisor for Social Policy in the Economic and Social Policy Division. Communication Johannes Damian is an advisor of strategic communications for this project within the Department of Communications. The Authors Rainer Faus is a co-founder and managing shareholder of pollytix strategic research. Simon Storks is a consultant for pollytix strategic research. Responsible for this publication at the Friedrich-EbertStiftung Felix Eikenberg is the head of the Forum Berlin Department, a part of the Political Dialogue Division. Sönke Hollenberg is a policy advisor for integration and participation in the Forum Berlin Department, a part of the Political Dialogue Division. This paper presents the most significant findings of the study Das pragmatische Einwanderungsland. Was die Deutschen über Migration denken(Pragmatism, not Dogmatism: What Germans think about migration), carried out by pollytix strategic research under the auspices of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Rainer Faus and Simon Storks of pollytix strategic research are responsible for the study’s results and for the more detailed version of it. The latter is available online in German at www.fes.de/umfrage-migration-2019 The authors responsible for the short version of this study are Johannes Damian, Felix Eikenberg and Sönke Hollenberg.

WHAT GERMANS THINK ABOUT MIGRATION. A SUMMARY OF THE STUDY. 1 WHAT GERMANS THINK ABOUT MIGRATION Whether on talk shows, at party conferences, or in social media, the topic of migration continues to dominate the public debate. Since 2015, a large number of refugees have come to Germany, triggering heated discussion of what society should do about migration and integration. The tone tends to be highly emotional and positions seem entrenched. On one side we find those who advocate more immigration; on the other are those who radically oppose it. But what do Germans really think about migration? Is the population really so polarised? What do people think about their government’s integration policy? IMMIGRATION AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GERMANY Germans are by and large open to immigration. More than half the population even regards immigration as an opportunity. Only a minority rejects it categorically. Immigration that can help to solve the shortage of skilled labour meets with particular approval(63 per cent). Finally, half of all Germans surveyed believe that immigration enriches the country not only economically, but also socially and culturally. The upshot is that the German populace now largely accepts the fact that Germany is a country of immigration. The present study shows that the opinions of most of those surveyed are more nuanced. Views on immigration tend to be pragmatic and middle-of-the-road rather than dogmatic. Germans even consider immigration as an opportunity. However, there are also strong doubts about whether current policymaking will be able to cope with the ensuing challenges. Through its project »Für ein besseres Morgen«(For a Better Tomorrow), the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung aims to contribute to the debate about what it will mean for Germany to be a country of immigration. This representative survey provides a good starting point. What are the key findings? NUANCED OPINIONS RATHER THAN ENTRENCHED POSITIONS In contrast to what the public debate might suggest, this study shows clearly that society is by no means split into two irreconcilable camps of vehement advocates and opponents of immigration. Only a quarter of those surveyed fall into each of these two categories respectively. Around half of Germans belong to a broad»uncommitted center« with diverse attitudes. The majority favours accepting refugees, but is also aware of the challenges that such an influx of people brings with it. THOSE WHO INTEGRATE PROPERLY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO STAY A large majority of Germans agree that people who have had to flee from war and persecution should be admitted. Seventy per cent believe that in the future Germany should take a number of refugees comparable to that which it accepts today or even more. However, most people are not very keen on letting in migrants coming to Germany»for economic reasons or fleeing poverty«. By contrast, most of those surveyed do not oppose refugees being housed in their neighbourhoods. And there is almost a general consensus that anyone who comes to Germany as a refugee, integrates properly, and gets a job should be permitted to stay, even if he or she is under an obligation to leave the country. Almost 80 per cent of the respondents take that view and, accordingly, are open to so-called»lane changing«(“Spurwechsel”). THE MAIN CONCERNS: RIGHT-WING EXTREMISM AND DIVISIONS IN SOCIETY Concerns about the influx of refugees and migrants do exist. But they are not primarily those that tend to be highlighted in the media and politics. For instance, the biggest fears do not involve the costs of integration or competition between locals and immigrants for jobs. Crime and terror and the influence of Islam were ranked

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – FOR A BETTER TOMORROW 2 only third and fourth on the list of concerns. Instead, the main worry relates to an increase in right-wing extremism and racist violence, followed by worries about increasing divisions in society. TRUST, SOCIAL COHESION AND RESPECT – WHAT POLICYMAKERS SHOULD DO NOW The belief that something is seriously amiss in society and that political solutions are urgently needed is also apparent in another area. Just under half of those surveyed believe that current policymakers are capable of meeting the challenges of the future. People neither see a political vision nor – especially in relation to refugee policy – a clear plan. Furthermore, more than three-quarters of the population feel that social cohesion is breaking down:»people only think about themselves«. A substantial proportion of those surveyed also feel that there is a lack of respect for people without academic degrees. More than 50 per cent of those surveyed think that they do not benefit personally from Germany’s prosperity and are worried about their own futures. These views go hand in hand with a certain scepticism regarding refugees and migrants. The findings show clearly that Germans are open towards immigration. Policymakers should not underestimate this basically positive attitude and should on no account undermine it with divisive policies and rhetoric. However, it is also evident that people want a clear legal basis for Germany as a country of immigration: In other words, they prefer fair and orderly procedures for the admission of refugees and other migrants. Policymakers will only be able to maintain the general openness to immigration if they gain people’s trust. And that will be possible only if they take a pragmatic approach to migration and integration, with a policy based on solidarity that reinforces social cohesion and fosters prosperity and esteem for everyone in Germany, regardless of his or her origins. JOHANNES DAMIAN Department of Communications, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung FELIX EIKENBERG Department of Political Dialogue, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung SÖNKE HOLLENBERG Department of Political Dialogue, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

WHAT GERMANS THINK ABOUT MIGRATION. A SUMMARY OF THE STUDY. Composition of attitude groups Nationalist-leaning 25 % Uncommitted Center 49 % 3 Cosmopolitan-leaning 26 % 14 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 0 1 2 3 16 % 4 18 % 5 15 % 6 11 % 8 % 5 % 2 % 7 8 9 10 Basis: All eligible voters. Differences due to rounding up or down. Rounded average index, based on agreement with the following statements on an eleven-point scale:(1)’Germany and the other EU countries should again be able to take more of their own decisions’(inverted),(2) ‘Membership of the EU brings Germany more benefits than disadvantages’,(3)‘ Too much attention is paid to minorities in Germany instead of looking at the whole’(inverted),(4)‘The many foreigners make me feel like a stranger in my own country’(inverted). Source: pollytix 2019. Immigration as an opportunity Please tell me, based on a scale of 0 to 10, how much you agree with this statement: Germany should take immigration as an opportunity. Total 29 % 15 % 14 % 33 % neutral(5): 17 % 53 % 20 % Nationalistleaning 63 % 41 % 22 % 23 % 15 % 8 % Uncommitted Center 25 % neutral(5): 14 % 9 % 16 % 39 % 51 % 12 % Cosmopolitanleaning neutral(5): 24 % 6 % 41 % neutral(5): 7 % Totally disagree (0 –1) Somewhat disagree (2–4) Somewhat agree (6–8) Basis: All eligible voters. Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. 88 % 47 % Fully agree (9 –10)

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – FOR A BETTER TOMORROW 4 Immigration as enrichment Please tell me, based on a scale of 0 to 10, how much you agree with this statement: Immigrants enrich cultural and social life in Germany. Total 31 % 15 % 16 % 33 % neutral(5): 19 % 50 % 17 % Nationalistleaning Uncommitted Center Cosmopolitanleaning 63 % Totally disagree (0 –1) 24 % 39 % 24 % 17 % 7 % 27 % neutral(5): 13 % 47 % 11 % 16 % 36 % 11 % neutral(5): 25 % 7 % 5 % 43 % neutral(5): 11 % Somewhat disagree (2–4) Somewhat agree (6–8) Basis: All eligible voters. Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. 81 % 38 % Fully agree (9 –10) Immigration of skilled workers Please tell me, based on a scale of 0 to 10, how much you agree with this statement: Germany needs foreign workers in order to tackle skilled labour shortages. Total 24 % 13 % 11 % 39 % neutral(5): 13 % 63 % 24 % Nationalistleaning 48 % 33 % 38 % 15 % 27 % 11 % Uncommitted Center 20 % neutral(5): 13 % 9 % 11 % 43 % 63 % 20 % Cosmopolitanleaning neutral(5): 16 % 8 % 5 % 41 % 82 % 41 % neutral(5): 8 % Totally disagree (0 –1) Somewhat disagree (2–4) Somewhat agree (6–8) Basis: All eligible voters(half sample). Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. Fully agree (9 –10)

WHAT GERMANS THINK ABOUT MIGRATION. A SUMMARY OF THE STUDY. 5 Receptiveness by group of immigrants In your opinion, in the future Germany should take in more or fewer people who … … are highly qualified and want to work in Germany? … want to work in industries where there are many unfilled jobs? … are fleeing war or civil war? … are fleeing persecution because of their religious, political or sexual orientation? … are fleeing for economic reasons and from poverty? less 17 % 20 % 26 % 31 % 57 % Total the same as now 29 % 27 % 38 % 39 % 27 % more 53 % 52 % 35 % 28 % 13 % Basis: All eligible voters. Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. Federal government’s refugee policy In your opinion, does the Federal government do … … too much for refugees who have come to Germany? … too little for refugees who have come to Germany? or are its efforts to aid refugees just about right? Total According to their assumed reason for fleeing their homes War and persecution Economy and Poverty too little 17 % 25 % 9 % about right 35 % too much 45 % 51 % 22 % 21 % 67 % Basis: All eligible voters. Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019.

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – FOR A BETTER TOMORROW 6 Integration and‘lane changing’(“Spurwechsel’) Please tell me which point of view you agree with. Foreigners who are under an obligation to leave the country should be subject to compulsory deportation even if they are well integrated and have a job or an apprenticeship. Foreigners who are under an obligation to leave the country, but who are well integrated and have a job or an apprecnticeship should be permitted to remain in Germany. Total 21 % 78 % Nationalistleaning Uncommitted Center Cosmopolitanleaning 37 % 20 % 5 % 63 % 79 % 93 % Basis: all eligible voters. Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. Politicians‘ ability to solve problems in general Please tell me, based on a scale of 0 to 10, how much you agree with this statement: Politicians are capable of dealing with the challenges of the future. Total 34 % 13 % 21 % 36 % neutral(5): 18 % 47 % 11 % 61 % 25 % Nationalistleaning Uncommitted Center Cosmopolitanleaning 33 % 28 % 17 % 8 % 28 % neutral(5): 14 % 8 % 20 % 39 % 18 % neutral(5): 23 % 14 % 49 % neutral(5): 14 % 47 % 8 % Totally disagree (0 –1) Somewhat disagree (2–4) Somewhat agree (6–8) Basis: all eligible voters. Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. 68 % 19 % Fully agree (9 –10)

WHAT GERMANS THINK ABOUT MIGRATION. A SUMMARY OF THE STUDY. 7 Lack of a long-term political vision Please tell me, based on a scale of 0 to 10, how much you agree with this statement: Politicians lack a vision for Germany’s long-term future. Total 13 % 9 % 36 % neutral(5): 15 % 72 % 36 % Nationalistleaning Uncommitted Center Cosmopolitanleaning Totally disagree (0 –1) 9 % 5 % 21 % 13 % neutral(5): 6 % 10 % 40 % 18 % neutral(5): 19 % 5 % 13 % 41 % Somewhat disagree (2–4) neutral(5): 17 % Somewhat agree (6–8) 66 % 67 % 27 % 64 % 23 % 87 % Fully agree (9 –10) Basis: All eligible voters(half sample). Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. Concerns about immigration I When you think about the consequences of the influx of refugees and migrants, are you: very worried, somewhat worried, not very worried, or not worried at all about the following issues? Total Increase in right-wing extremism and racist violence Increasing division of society Increase in crime and terrorist attacks Influence of Islam on society Integration costs Competition on the housing market Competition on the labour market 14 % 17 % 27 % 34 % 37 % 40 % 66 % 86 % 81 % 73 % 64 % 61 % 58 % 30 % not worried at all not very worried rather worried very worried Basis: all eligible voters. Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019.

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – FOR A BETTER TOMORROW 8 Concerns about immigration II When you think of the consequences of the influx of refugees and migrants, are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned or not at all concerned about the following things? Increase in right-wing extremism and racist violence Nationalistleaning 24 % 75 % Increasing division of society 5 % 94 % Increase in crime and terrorist attacks 4 % 95 % Influence of Islam on society 4 % 95 % Integration costs Competition on the housing market Competition on the labour market 5 % 21 % 49 % 93 % 76 % 49 % Uncommitted Center 11 % 89 % Cosmopolitanleaning 9 % 91 % 15 % 83 % 31 % 68 % 20 % 78 % 58 % 41 % 30 % 68 % 64 % 33 % 30 % 67 % 76 % 22 % 35 % 64 % 66 % 32 % 62 % 35 % 90 % 8 % not worried at all not very worried rather worried very worried Basis: All eligible voters(half sample). Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. Concerns about social cohesion Please tell me, based on a scale of 0 to 10, how much you agree with this statement: Cohesion in society is increasingly being lost, people are only thinking about themselves now. Total 9 % 7 % 38 % neutral(5): 12 % 79 % 41 % Nationalistleaning Uncommitted Center Cosmopolitanleaning Totally disagree (0 –1) 3 % 22 % 8 % neutral(5): 4 % 7 % 40 % 14 % neutral(5): 17 % 12 % 47 % Somewhat disagree (2–4) neutral(5): 11 % Somewhat agree (6–8) 71 % 75 % 35 % 74 % 27 % 93 % Fully agree (9 –10) Basis: All eligible voters(half sample). Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019.

WHAT GERMANS THINK ABOUT MIGRATION. A SUMMARY OF THE STUDY. 9 Respect for educational credentials Please tell me, based on a scale of 0 to 10, how much you agree with this statement: Those who have not completed an academic degree are not appreciated enough in Germany. Total 21 % 6 % 15 % 36 % neutral(5): 18 % 58 % 22 % Nationalistleaning Uncommitted Center Cosmopolitanleaning Totally disagree (0 –1) 13 % 71 % 10 % 31 % 40 % 20 % neutral(5): 13 % 58 % 6 % 14 % 42 % 16 % 33 % neutral(5): 21 % 45 % 9 % 24 % 31 % 14 % Somewhat disagree (2–4) neutral(5): 17 % Somewhat agree (6–8) Fully agree (9 –10) Basis: All eligible voters(half sample). Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. Economic development Please tell me, based on a scale of 0 to 10, how much you agree with this statement: It is often said that Germany is doing well economically, but I personally do not benefit from this development. Total 31 % 12 % 19 % 30 % neutral(5): 15 % 54 % 24 % 14 % Nationalistleaning Uncommitted Center Cosmopolitanleaning 57 % 27 % 5 % 9 % 26 % 28 % neutral(5): 12 % 9 % 19 % 37 % neutral(5): 18 % 30 % 30 % 20 % 10 % neutral(5): 12 % 48 % 54 % 17 % Totally disagree (0 –1) Somewhat disagree (2–4) Somewhat agree (6–8) Basis: All eligible voters(half sample). Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. 74 % Fully agree (9 –10)

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – FOR A BETTER TOMORROW 10 Concerns about the future Please tell me, based on a scale of 0 to 10, whether and how much the following statement applies to you: Thinking about my future worries me. Total 34 % 13 % 21 % 30 % neutral(5): 14 % 52 % 22 % Nationalistleaning Uncommitted Center Cosmopolitanleaning 15 % 73 % 6 % 9 % 30 % 43 % 30 % neutral(5): 10 % 52 % 10 % 20 % 34 % 18 % 60 % neutral(5): 18 % 30 % 28 % 32 % 22 % 8 % Totally disagree (0 –1) Somewhat disagree (2–4) neutral(5): 10 % Somewhat agree (6–8) Fully agree (9 –10) Basis: All eligible voters(half sample). Missing values: Don’t know/not specified. Differences due to rounding up or down. Source: pollytix 2019. COMMENTS ON METHODS This study is based on a quantitative public opinion survey carried out by pollytix strategic research between November 13 and December 11, 2018. The quantitative data were collected through a telephone survey relying on a dual-frame approach involving both landlines and a cell phone network and using computer-supported polling software. The universe of the sample of n-3,000 consists of the segment of the German population eligible to vote. To guarantee that the sample would be representative, the data were evaluated in light of official statistics. The maximum margin of error for the sample of n-3,000 came to+/- 1.7% assuming a confidence interval of 95%.

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