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=C2=A9=20Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung?= Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2024 09:38:18 +0200 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----MultipartBoundary--PoeNHlpzRbzcZDrjbryPmV1R0lJMxm4a35r9dS3eBn----" ------MultipartBoundary--PoeNHlpzRbzcZDrjbryPmV1R0lJMxm4a35r9dS3eBn---- Content-Type: text/html Content-ID: Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: https://library.fes.de/fulltext/iez/00768.htm#E9E8 A new global financial architecture: a Thai perspective / Thanong Khanthong - [E-mail-version, electronic ed.] - [Bonn, 2000] - 30= KB, Text & Image file . - (Studies on international financial architecture ; 2000,4 : e-mail-vers= ion) <br>Electronic ed.: Bonn : FES Library, 2001 <br><br><font size=3D-1><i>=A9 Friedrich-Ebert-Stif= tung</i></font>

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A new global financial architecture: a Thai perspective / Thanong Khanthong - [E-mail-version, electronic ed.] - [Bonn, 2000] - 30= KB, Text & Image file . - (Studies on international financial architecture ; 2000,4 : e-mail-vers= ion)
Electronic ed.: Bonn : FES Library, 2001

=A9 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

=3D"INHALT"




A New Global Financial Architecture: A Thai Perspectiv= e

Thanong Khanthong



SUMMARY
=

Any discussion on the new international financial architecture will have= to start with the mismatch between the sizes of the economies, the financi= al markets and the financial institutions of the more advanced countries an= d the developing countries. It will also have to take into account the pred= ominant roles played by the dollar, the euro and the yen. Exchange fluctuat= ions among these three currencies have created global financial instability= . Thailand and

other emerging-market economies have been advised to adopt a floating ex= change rate regime and pursue sound macroeconomics management, apart from u= ndertaking structural reform to stay competitive. Yet it remains uncertain = how the emerging market economies can cope with the forces of globalization= , financial turbulence information revolution and liberalisation even thoug= h they manage to put their houses in order.



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Introduction

Thailand is taking a textbook approach in strengthening its financia= l regime to become part of the international financial architecture, whatev= er it is. The economic crisis over the past three years has become a painfu= l adjustment. It is now trying to put its house in order. The crisis has be= come a dear lesson. The Thai policy-makers believe that the structural refo= rm, which is now being put in place, is expected provide a stronger regime = for healthier growth and stability in the future. They also hope that it wi= ll strengthen the safeguard against a recurrence of the economic crisis.

By putting its house in order, Thailand is now working to improve go= vernance and other internal practices. Apart from creating a more equitable= social distribution and forge political development, it is trying to stren= gthen the competitiveness of the country as a whole. Finally, it is facing = a daunting task of addressing the country=92s huge public sector debt, whic= h is now running at about 60 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP).= =20

Following the Asia crisis, there has been an ongoing debate over an = appropriate global financial architecture, which ideally should provide a s= tability framework for nations to participate in global growth and prosperi= ty. But this is not going to be the case. It remains uncertain how the new = architecture will look like. There is virtually no interest on the part of = the more advanced economies to change the status quo because the present sy= stem serves them well. The present international monetary system can be cha= racterised as a mismatch between the sizes of the economies, the financial = markets and the financial institutions of the more advanced countries and t= hose of the developing countries. Also, the currencies of the emerging mark= ets look vulnerable in the face of the floating dollar, the euro and the ye= n, which virtually dominate the international transactions. For the emergin= g-market economies, including Thailand, it is unclear how they will survive= in the new global financial order, characterised by globalization, financi= al turbulence, information technology revolution and economic liberalisatio= n. The best they can do is to put their house in order as a shield against = the external instability.

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A Mismatch

Any discussion on a new global financial architecture will inevitabl= y have to start with a mismatch between the sizes of the financial markets = of the more advanced countries and those of the developing economies. As of= February 2000, the stock market capitalisation of the US amounting to a st= aggering US$15.48 trillion, compared to US$8.94 trillion for Europe and US$= 4.58 trillion for Japan. At the same time, the sizes of the emerging market= s in Southeast Asia look tiny compared with the three giants, which represe= nt the global financial centres. Malaysia=92s stock market capitalisation w= as US$173 billion, followed by US$53 billion for Indonesia, US$51 billion f= or Thailand, US$37 billion for the Philippines. This mismatch in sizes is t= he underlying problem in the instability of the emerging markets as they op= en up their economies and capital markets to join the globalization bandwag= on. As Stephen S Roach, the chief economist and director of global economic= s at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, noted: "A 1 per cent asset allocation shif= t out of the United States is, in and of itself, worth US$150 billion; that= would overwhelm any of the emerging equity markets =96 leading to the type= s of asset bubbles that have been all too evident in emerging markets in re= cent years."=20 [ Stephen S Roach, "Architectural Reform: Managing = Financial Market Volatility in the New Millennium," paper presented to Apec= Forum on Shared Prosperity and Harmony, Seoul, Korea, March 31, 2000]<= /font> =20

A merger between Deutsche Bank and Dresdner Bank, both of Germany, w= ould have created a banking group with a gigantic asset size of US$1.2 tril= lion. At the same time, a merger between Bangkok Bank and Thai Farmers Bank= , Thailand=92s two largest private banks, would have created a new banking = entity of the size of about US$50 billion. The size of the Thai banks is eq= uivalent to only a community or regional bank in the US with no participati= on in the international transactions. Moreover, Microsoft=92s market capita= lisation exceeds US$500 billion, compared with US$150 billion of the size o= f the Thai GDP as a whole. So the fundamental question is how the financial= institutions or economies of the emerging markets can compete head-on agai= nst their rivals from the more advanced economies in the first place. It is= like putting a flyweight boxer to face Mike Tyson in the boxing ring.

Besides, enormous capital has already been accumulated in the more a= dvanced economies because of their development hundreds of years before. Th= e capital from the more advanced economies has simultaneously become a bles= sing and a curse for the emerging-market economies. When the capital leaves= the global financial centres into the emerging-market economies, it leads = to economic boom and asset bubbles. When the capital is pulled back due to = a reversal in sentiment, it creates financial shocks and economic dislocati= ons.

The Thai experience is just another example of the boom-bust cycle c= reated by capital flow. Thanks to Thailand=92s financial liberalisation, fo= reign capital flooded the country in the tune of US$30 billion alone betwee= n 1992 and 1994. As a result, easy money drove banks into reckless lending.= Companies diversified into businesses they knew very little about. All maj= or industries poured money into expansion to create an overcapacity. The pr= operty market went out of hand. Eventually, the country ran up US$90 billio= n in US dollar currency debts. The financial bubbles would pop.

When sentiment changed in 1997 with the devaluation of the baht that= triggered the Asia crisis, capital flew out of Thailand in droves. Between= 1997 and 1998, some US$20 billion fled the country in panic, creating a cu= rrency crisis, a severe credit crunch, a banking crisis and the economic an= d social upheavals.

For the emerging-market economies, there appears to be no middle gro= und when it comes to dealing with capital flow. It is either too much money= or too little money since the foreign bankers, financiers, money managers = and investors largely act on a herd instinct. The dilemma for Thailand and = other emerging-market economies is how they can strike a balance and cope w= ith the volatility or financial turbulence as they open up their economies = to embrace capital, technology and know-how; and how they can make the best= use of globalization, where capital, which has both its beneficial and de= structive elements, moves rather freely in search for the best returns.

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The Three Isla= nds of Stability

Apart from the mismatch in the size of their financial markets, the = emerging-market economies are also vulnerable in the face of the foreign ex= change fluctuations. Managing an appropriate foreign exchange regime has be= come a tough choice. For the present global financial architecture is based= on a floating exchange rate regime, dominated by the dollar, the euro and = the yen. They are the three islands of stability, the centres of global gra= vity. Over the past four to five years, the US, Europe and Japan have enjoy= ed internal stability through subdued inflation, which ranges at 2-3 per ce= nt a year. Yet the dollar land, the euro land and the yen land have created= financial turbulence in the rest of the world by the sharp volatility of t= heir exchange rates. As a result, the other economies outside the three isl= ands of instability is either inflating or deflating according to the movem= ents of the three major exchange rates or the cycles of their economies.

Robert Mundell, the Nobel laureate in economics, views the floating = exchange rate system anchored by the dollar, the euro and the yen as "an ab= sence of monetary rule". In his speech to Apec Forum in Seoul, Korea, deliv= ered on March 30, 2000, he made it clear that the world has to go back to t= he fixed exchange rate regime. "Should we have a fixed or flexible exchange= rate is not an option. A fixed exchange rate is not a monetary rule =96 it= =92s the absence of monetary rule," he said. He called for a establishment = of a global financial architecture based on a fixed exchange rate regime, s= imilar to the old Bretton Wood system that the US tore apart in 1972. For t= he rest of the world will find it increasingly difficult to manage their ow= n stability in the face of the exchange rate volatility triggered by the wo= rld=92s three dominating currencies.

The Thai crisis can also be seen as a foreign exchange crisis emanat= ed from the fluctuations between the dollar and the yen. In 1985, the dolla= r was trading at about 250 yen. But 10 years later it was at 79 yen. Betwee= n 1984 and July 1997, the baht was pegged to the dollar. The dollar weaknes= s initially helped to boost the Thai exports. But starting in mid-1995, the= dollar began to appreciate sharply against the yen, making the Thai export= s less competitive and precipitating the economic crisis. There was little = movements between the baht and the dollar then because it pegged to the gre= enback, but the baht rode on the dollar=92s back to appreciate sharply agai= nst the yen to create a currency crisis.

As Mundell has suggested, it will be necessary for currencies in the= emerging markets to enter a broader arrangement for create a regional fixe= d exchange rate mechanism =96 exactly the same way that Europe has done wit= h the euro. Japan wants to play this leading role, but it is still lack the= political courage to forge ahead into this direction. And there are a lot = of reservations among the Asian countries, who still differ substantially o= n the monetary and political union.

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Floating Excha= nge Rate Regime

At the heart of the Thai financial reform to join the global financi= al architecture lie the floating exchange rate system and the sound macroec= onomic policy. Both the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand are commi= tted to a floating exchange rate mechanism. They believe that the value of = the baht will have to be determined by the market force. Under the floating= exchange rate regime, the central bank will let the baht move rather freel= y with the economic fundamentals of the country. It will refrain from inter= vening in the foreign exchange market to support the baht, except in specia= l circumstances.

The floating exchange rate policy is in contrast with the currency p= eg system of the past. Between 1984 and 1997, Thailand adopted a fixed exch= ange rate regime. The Thai baht was then traded at 25 to 26 baht to the US = dollar, compared to 37-38 baht to the US dollar presently. The currency peg= acted as a nominal anchor, providing macroeconomic stability and boost con= fidence among the foreign investors who brought their money into the countr= y for investment. Under this policy, the central bank, using its internatio= nal reserves, would intervene in the foreign exchange market to keep the mo= vements of the baht at a fixed rate. The fixed exchange rate policy worked = well for Thailand because the baht was pegged to the US dollar, which weake= ned mostly against the major currencies during the period. This helped boo= st the Thai exports. Most of the foreign exchange rate systems in the regio= n also pegged their currencies to the US dollar.

Overconfident with the growth prospects, Thai authorities started a = series of financial liberalisations in the early 1990s, culminating in the = opening up of the capital account. The policy amounted to opening up a floo= dgate to foreign capital, which flowed into the country en masse. As a resu= lt, foreign debt in 1996 mushroomed to more than US$90 billion, of which US= $70 billion was private debt.=20

Cracks began to show in the Thai fixed exchange rate system in mid-1= 995 when the US dollar began to strengthen against the Japanese yen. Two ye= ars earlier China also devalued its currency by about 35 per cent. The Thai= exports, which had been the engine of economic growth over the past decade= , began to lose its competitiveness. Without strong export earnings, there = was increasing concern in 1996 over how Thailand would pay off its foreign-= currency debt. The crisis was looming ahead.

At the same time, the fixed exchange rate system posed a dilemma to = the monetary authorities. For the fixed currencies induced foreign capital = inflow, which added on domestic price pressures. This forced them to raise = interest rates to bring prices under control. But wider interest rate diffe= rentials between the baht and the US dollar further encouraged foreign capi= tal inflow. The Thai authorities were caught in a "triangle of impossibilit= y": they could not maintain a fixed exchange rate system, allow free flow o= f capital and manage an independent monetary policy all at the same time.

Eventually, the monetary authorities caved in to the pressure to aba= ndon the fixed exchange rate region by floating the baht on July 2, 1997. T= he crisis broke out to create a regional contagion effect. The authorities = quickly introduced a series of measures to stem the tide of speculative mon= ey. In the end, the Thai authorities would be left with the task of trying = to keep an independent monetary policy.

Now the floating exchange rate provides more flexibility to the mone= tary authorities. They don=92t have to lose reserves in defending the curre= ncy. Before the fixed exchange rate automatically helped to keep prices in = check. But with the floating exchange rate, the task of the monetary author= ities has to shift to maintaining price stability through inflation targeti= ng. Now inflation targeting set in the medium term will form a nominal anch= or for the macroeconomic management. As discussed above, it remains doubtfu= l that a medium-sized and open economy like Thailand can achieve stability = by adopting the floating exchange rate regime due to the highly instable na= ture of the global financial system.

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Sound Macroeco= nomic Policy

Thailand will be sticking to sound macroeconomic policy as another h= allmark of its policy framework. Yet at this point, they have go for defici= t financing for three years in a row to jump-start the ailing economy. But = monetary conditions have been largely eased to accommodate the recovery. Th= e failures of the financial system have created a huge burden on the budget= , which has to fiscalise the cost of financial restructuring. The debt of t= he Financial Institution Development Fund, which has guaranteed the deposit= s of the public and senior foreign debts, have reached Bt1.3 trillion. In t= he medium term, the fiscal policy will have to be tightened to prevent gove= rnment debt going out of control.

On the monetary front, amendment of the Bank of Thailand Act will pa= ve the way for the Thai monetary authorities to focus their task on maintai= ning price stability through inflation targeting. The central bank will ado= pt more transparency to its operation. It will set medium term target for i= nflation and try to manage the monetary policy to achieve the target. It wi= ll have to report its operation to the Cabinet and to Parliament. It will a= lso be required to publish its international reserves on a weekly basis.

Moreover, the domestic institutions are under an ongoing reform. Par= t of the Thai crisis can be blamed on the weak institutions that support th= e capitalist system. From the legal, accounting, judicial, regulatory to th= e financial supervisory institutions, they cannot cope with the fast change= of the new business and economic environment. It was not until March last = year that Thailand have put in place a bankruptcy and foreclosure framework= . The bankruptcy court was created only in June that same year. Without the= sophisticated institutions, economic development will eventually run into = a snag.

Moreover, financial sector is going through recapitalisation and deb= t restructuring period. The Thai authorities are committed to liberalisatio= n and best international practices in this sector to create more competitio= n and efficiency.

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Capital Contro= ls and the Hedge Funds

Another important subject in the international financial architectur= e is how countries should cope with the flow of short-term capital and deal= with the highly leveraged hedge funds. At the height of the Thai crisis, e= xternal private debt reached US$70 billion, of which US$40 billion was shor= t-term capital. Short-term capital is defined as capital with a maturity of= less than one year. The abrupt movement of the short-term capital can crea= te instability. When Thailand faced a classic balance of payments crisis in= 1997, there were fears from the foreign lenders that the country might not= have enough dollar to service its foreign debt. For short-term capital of = US$40 billion alone already exceeded the country=92s international reserves= of US$30 billion. Hence, there was a big scrambling for investors or lende= rs to get out of Thailand as quickly as possible.

Even a US$17.2 billion rescue fund from the IMF could not calm the p= anic. The outflow of short-term capital created a severe credit crunch for = there was not enough dollar for the local banks or corporates could not con= vert their baht assets into dollar assets for repayment. Buying the dollar = further put downward pressure on the baht. Besides, liquidating assets in t= ime of the economic crisis was all the more difficult because they were no = buyers or liquidity.

After the Thai crisis, there has been growing interest among emergin= g countries as to how they can control the flow of short-term capital. In p= ractice, it is difficult to control short-term capital because there is alw= ays a put option if a corporate fails to meet one of the covenants in its l= ong-term loans. Yet short-term capital or hot money will have to be dealt w= ith for their movements affect the foreign exchange and monetary policies o= f a country.

Malaysia=92s measures have been more direct. In September 1998, the = authorities declared offshore ringgit to be inconvertible to curb speculati= ve currency trading, thereby creating heavy losses among the hedge funds an= d currency speculators. In doing so, Malaysia has been able to bring stabil= ity to its ringgit, which ever since has been fixed at 3.80 to the dollar.

Hedge funds are the pirates of modern global finance. This is the un= spoken view of Asian financial policy-makers. After the collapse of Long-Te= rm Capital Management, a US hedge fund, in August 1998, there has been incr= easing attempt to regulate the hedge funds.

At the Seoul Apec Forum, which ended last week, the destabilising ro= le of hedge funds was highlighted as part of an effort to create a new glob= al financial structure. If the new financial architecture is to be fair and= transparent to all participating countries, the hedge funds have to be tam= ed. The reason is that some of the most highly leveraged hedge funds are ma= naged secretively. They are registered in offshore financial centres to esc= ape the watchful eyes of the regulatory authorities.

When they take on financial markets with their sheer leverage power = and intense speculative trading practices, they can create instability to t= he financial system. Medium-sized open economies are particularly vulnerabl= e to hedge funds.

Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have submitted= a proposal to the IMF Fund on the need to improve transparency and the mon= itoring process of hedge funds. Yet the IMF=92s response has been rather lu= kewarm.

Countries have different methods to cope with the hedge funds. After= the baht crisis, the Thai authorities have moved to curb baht trading in t= he offshore markets. Local banks are restricted from supplying the baht to = the hedge funds or foreign investors in the offshore market.

Hedge funds aggravated Thailand=92s financial crisis when they joine= d in the attack on the baht in 1997. They were viewed as a necessary evil t= hen because they imposed market discipline to the economy. With the Thai au= thorities refusing to face the reality of the baht, hedge funds launched a = US$10 billion attack on the currency on May 14, 1997 alone. After the victo= ry over the baht, the hedge funds went on a regional rampage, attacking nat= ional currencies and precipitating the regional crisis. The Hong Kong dolla= r was also come under the heavy attack, but it escaped the turmoil due to i= ts sound fundamentals.

"If we impose more restrictions on domestic financial markets to pre= vent huge capital inflows, these hedge funds will move to these offshore ba= nking units, rendering the restrictive measures ineffective," said Paul Chi= u, Taiwan=92s finance minister.=20 [ Paul C. H. Chiu, minister of finance, Chinese Tai= pei, "Short-term Capital Flows and the Related Financial Architecture in Em= erging Market Economies," paper presented at the Apec Forum on Shared Prosp= erity and Harmony, March 31, 2000, Seoul, Korea] =20

The advanced economies are adopting measures to require the hedge fu= nds to disclose requirements, and to require banks to enhance their risk ma= nagement capabilities in order to curb excessive lending to hedge funds and= other highly leveraged institutions. In this regard, hedge funds are being= controlled indirectly.

The G-7 countries began to take a serious look at the destabilising = effect of hedge funds only after the collapse of Long-term Capital Manageme= nt. In the end the bankrupt US hedge fund had to be bailed out by other US = investment banks because if it was forced to liquidate its US$1 trillion po= sitions, it could have brought down the global financial markets. The failu= re of Long-Term Capital Management also pointed to poor risk management by = the US and European banks, which allowed the hedge fund to leverage 20 time= s its capital base.=20

But Chiu said these disclosures or risk management measures were not= enough to shield emerging market countries from the threat of the hedge fu= nds. In Taipei, he said, foreign investors were required to register as qua= lified investors and to disclose pertinent information, including the names= of their beneficiaries. "At the same time, Taipei has regulated hedge fund= s in a manner similar to regulating securities investment trust funds by pr= ohibiting transactions supported by margin financing," he said.

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Conclusion

Despite the rhetoric over the new international financial architectu= re, it remains uncertain how its final face will look like. But the world o= ut there is very crude and brutal for the emerging economies. Thailand and = other emerging economies are facing the dilemma of having to deal with glob= alization, which comes with the information technology revolution. But in g= lobalization, there is an inherent instability of the financial markets, do= minated by the dollar, the euro and the yen.

To participate in the globalization or the new architecture, Thailan= d will have to put its house in order and liberalise its financial system a= nd economy. But if it fails to do so appropriately, it will risk facing ano= ther crisis.=20

Thanong Khanthong is Business Editor of The Nation, Bangkok, = Thailand

=A9 Friedrich Ebert Stiftung | technical su= pport | net edition=20 fes-library | Juli 2001

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