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3D"LOGO

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The IMF and the Brazilian economy: partners or cordial enemies? / Marcelo Lara Resende - [Email-version, electronic ed.] - [Bonn, 2001] - = 44 KB, Text & Image file . - (Studies on international financial architecture ; 2001,1 : IMF special= : e-mail-version)
Electronic ed.: Bonn : FES Library, 2001

=A9 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

=3D"INHALT"

Introduc= tion
The = crisis in context
The = IMF diagnosis
The = IMF solution
Revi= siting the crises
An i= nadequate strategy
Orth= odox IMF, unorthodox solution
A ne= w pattern?
The = Meltzer Report and others
Demo= cracy and development at the IMF?
Conc= lusion and reservations

THE IMF AND THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY:
PARTNERS OR CORD= IAL ENEMIES?
Marcelo Lara Resende

=84Blaming victims is an appealing evasion of res= ponsibility, especially when the victims are far from virtuous. But when si= ns are as heterogeneous as those of Latin American regimes of 1980, one won= ders how well the exemplary mass punishment fits the alleged individual cri= me."
Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro (1984)

Introduction<= /font>

It is difficult to paint a clear picture of the heated debate concer= ning the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) toward its member co= untries and the financial community. However, it is possible to paint an i= m-pressionistic picture of the controversial in-fluence of the IMF in Brazi= l, especially when the population, once again, is experiencing not only the= benefits but also the painful side effects from the most recent stand-by a= greement signed with that institution on November 13, 1998. With regards t= o what the international financial community sees as the worst sin attribut= ed to the Brazilian economy, perhaps the statement made a decade and a half= ago by Professor Diaz-Alejandro of Yale University is not completely off t= he mark.=20 [Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos F. =84Latin American debt:= I don=92t think we are in Kansas anymore". Brookings Papers on Economic Ac= tivity . Washington: Brookings Institution, number 2, 1984.]
In that case, it is in fact necessary and urgent to discuss the pre= sent and future roles of the IMF.
As early as 1982, faculty members from the Economics Department at t= he Rio de Janeiro Pontifical Catholic University=20 [Pontif=EDcia Universidade Cat=F3lica do Rio de Jan= eiro (PUC-RJ] pointed out alternatives to the traditional IMF prescription to spare the= national economy from the corrosive effects of the international crisis.= =20 [(a) D=EDvida externa, recess=E3o e ajuste estrutur= al: o Brasil diante da crise . Persio Arida (org.). S=E3o Paulo: Paz e Terr= a, 1982). (b) =84Alternativas para enfrentar a crise". Marcelo Lara Resende= . Ci=EAncia Hoje (Year 1, no. 6), May/June 1983.]
Many of these econo-mists are, or were, among the designers and enforce= rs of the economic policies now in effect, including Pedro Malan.=20 [Andr=E9 Lara Resende, Edmar Bacha, Eduardo Modiano= , Francisco Lopes, Jos=E9 M=E1rcio Camargo, Persio Arida, Regis Bonelli, an= d Winston Fritsch.]
However, as far as the policies inspired by the IMF are concerned, some= of these economists have forgotten what they defended in the past and, in = this way, may repeat what they criticized before they had the opportunity t= o govern us.=20 [=84Ponto de ruptura", Marcelo Lara Resende. Ci= =EAncia Hoje (vol. 25, no. 149), May 1999. ]
Malan=92s view =96 the current Minister of the Treasury - for example, = was that =84(=85) the credibility of the government with the Brazilian soci= ety must not be less than the credibility it tirelessly seeks with the inte= rnational financial community".=20 [=84Recess=E3o e negocia=E7=E3o". Pedro Malan, pg. = 116. ]
There is no better way to describe the emblematic concept of national sov= ereignty, without which it makes no sense to speak of country, nation, or c= itizenship.=20
What is the macroeconomic logic behind the adjustment programs su= ggested by the IMF, which was once criticized by the faculty of PUC but= is now supported by a government that is made up of a few of these former = critics? Should the role of the IMF continue to be that of smoothing ou= t liquidity squeezes (balance of payments) and exchange rate fluctuatio= ns in member countries? Or should the IMF be transformed into a lender o= f last resort, within a new structure of the international financial sy= stem? Should the Fund prevent crises or manage them? Should it play a dire= ct role in the development policies of its member countries, or should it s= imply interact with the World Bank and the private capital market? The ade= quacy of the diagnosis and the effectiveness of the suggestions made= by the IMF to heal the fiscal and external accounts, and thus stabilize th= e economy of the assisted countries have not always worked as expected. Th= erefore, it is indeed advisable to contrast the orthodox diagnosis and ther= apy associated with the IMF with unorthodox alternative proposals, which fa= vor economic growth, in order to solve the still frequent payment crises, i= ncluding in Brazil.
There is a consensus about the urgent need to reconsider the course = of the IMF as well as strong pressure for more democratic control within th= e institution, which was created after the Second World War at the Bretton = Woods Conference, during which the institutional framework of the internati= onal financial system now in effect was developed. By the way, this intern= ational framework also needs a structural reform. Since many questions abou= t the IMF have been raised by countries all over the world, it is no longer= easy to dismiss such criticism as circumstantial or temporary, or to label= it as politically and ideologically motivated. In order to understand Dia= z-Alejandro=92s proposal and to put into context speculations about the cou= rse of a new IMF, it is necessary to make a better analysis of conditions a= round the world which brought about, or aggravated, the recurring payment c= rises, especially in Latin America. For, es-sentially, the crises that con= tinue to jolt developing countries are not very different, for example, fro= m the crisis that plagued them in 1982. Therefore, it is necessary to reev= aluate not only the usual diagnosis (high fiscal and commercial deficits du= e mostly to wasteful governments given to excessive inter-ventionism) but a= lso the recessive therapy generally associated with the IMF.

The crisis in= context

The scarcity of capital in less developed countries vis-=E0-vis its = abundance in developed nations, in spite of the financial risks, makes fore= ign debt a useful tool to shore up economic growth, as long as it is well m= anaged. However, the composition of capital flow from developed to less de= veloped countries has changed since the nineteen-seventies. Financial capi= tal has increased to the detriment of direct investments; although in Brazi= l, for example, in the last few years, the amount of direct investment has = been growing significantly: roughly US$ 30 billion just in 1999. This new= composition of capital flow has increased the dependence on foreign money = and the obli-gations towards debt service in debtor countries. Consequentl= y, it also increased the vulnerability of the system to exogenous shocks, e= specially after the advent of globalization, which facilitated the inter-na= tional movement of short-term capital.
The first and second oil crises in 1973/74 and 1979/80, the worldwid= e recession, and the high interest rates confirmed in practice what was fea= red in theory. The evidence that the inter-national financial system was in= jeopardy (1980/81) became clear when the problem of foreign debt manifeste= d itself globally in 1982 with more than thirty heterogeneous countries hav= ing difficulty in honoring their debts. By allowing the expansion of intern= ational loans, the recycling of petrodollars made possible the survival of = the system after the first oil crisis, but it was not able to guarantee the= flow of resources necessary to stave off subsequent shocks. Even during th= at time, analysts had different opinions about the nature of the crisis. S= ome diagnosed the problem as severe (solvency) and argued that the crisis c= ould not be resolved by traditional methods and required measures to all= eviate debtor countries. Other analysts diagnosed the problem as tempor= ary (liquidity) and discouraged radical measures as they considered small t= he debt risk for the international financial system.
The fact is that he financial emergencies observed since 1982 were n= ot permanently resolved by the remedial packages, especially when th= e recessive and cumulative effects of the conditionalities associate= d with such packages are taken into consideration, for they are, in fact, a= further drain on fragile and tumultuous countries. Although fiscal virtue= is not their forte, there is indication that some debtor countries, includ= ing Brazil, by sub-mitting themselves without criticism to con-ditions that= are not always efficient, or by trying to satisfy the rigid performance cr= iteria that come as part of agreements with the IMF, are also paying for th= e crimes of others. Innocent victims? When contrasting the effort towards = settling accounts to the difficult situation in some Latin American countri= es, Diaz-Alejandro=92s words seem plausible. For when a crisis emerges, the= creditors, shielded by the IMF, force debtor countries into taking drastic= monetary and fiscal measures, regard-less of the actual degree of responsi= bility these countries bear in generating the crisis, or of the painful sid= e effects that such measures have for society.=20 [=84 When crisis hit, the IMF and other lenders giv= e highest priority to restoration of credibility and confidence in the curr= ency under attack. They require the victim country to take drastic restric= tive monetary and fiscal measures, whether or not irresponsibility in these= policies brought on the crisis. Since these measures damage the economy,= business, and banks, they may not restore confidence. Lenders of last res= ort are essential and should concentrate above all on replenishing liquidit= y ." James Tobin, Annual World Bank Conference of Development Economics (19= 98).] =20
The violent nature of these measures hurts the economies in question= , since their well-intentioned efforts fail to restore the trust of the cre= ditors themselves, who, almost always with the pragmatic agreement of the g= overnments involved, force these economies into an often self-destructive b= ehavior. The frequent eco-nomic, social, and political disturbances in Lati= n America suggest that the region may eventually lose even its surgical = condition without which the appropriate and, in fact, necessary macroec= onomic adjustment becomes impossible. Therefore, it does indeed make sense = to reconsider the role and performance of the IMF, including in Brazil.=20

The IMF diagn= osis

The public debt as a proportion of the gross national product (GNP) = is increasing in most of the world. In developed countries the debt is mos= tly domestic. In developing countries and in former socialist countries th= e greater portion of the debt is foreign and its extraordinary growth is at= tributed to an inadequate fiscal policy. The reasoning is that the pressur= es that stimulate the increase in spending do not foster the simultaneous i= ncrease of taxes necessary to finance them. The imbalance between revenue = and expenditure is financed through monetary expansion and domestic and for= eign loans. According to the IMF, this adjustment policy results in the ac= celeration of inflation. Initially, because inflation is unexpected, a tem= porary drop in real interest rates results in an equally temporary reductio= n of the ratio of debt to GNP. This gives governments the illusion that it = is possible to continue to expand the debt without problems. However, expe-= rience has demonstrated that the economic agents end up adapting themselves= to the inflationary context. As a last resort, such policies raise inflat= ionary expectations and, through the reaction of the monetary authorities, = raise the real interest rate which, in turn, distorts the allocation of res= ources, hurts economic growth, and increases unemployment - the greatest ev= il in any economy.=20
Excessive public debt has domestic as well as international conseque= nces. In the first case, the main result is that an increasing portion of = national savings is used to finance chronic fiscal deficits, to the detrime= nt of healthier private enterprises, a phenomenon known as crowding out<= /i>. In the second case, uncontrolled growth of public debt increases the r= isk of an abrupt retraction by the international financial market as in 198= 2 and 1997, since cautious agents look to reduce their exposure (their comm= itment to assets) in heavily indebted and potentially problematic countries= .
The IMF recognizes that an expansionist fiscal policy can have benef= icial effects for economic performance for a period of time, especially in = a recessive environment. However, the Fund also believes that fiscal defici= ts hurt economic performance because they bring about an in-crease in publi= c debt, negatively affect expec-tations, and reduce investments, making sus= tainable economic growth inviable. In the presence of high fiscal deficits= of structural origin (not due to cyclical movements of the economy), of hi= gh real interest rates, and of low economic growth rate, the problem become= s chronic. Deficits become cumulative and increase the public debt in relat= ion to the GNP. Brazil=92s public debt, for example, hovers today in the vi= cinity of 50% of the GNP. In the absence of measures to revert the vicious = circle, economic, social, and political stability in the countries involved= is at risk, and that diminishes the trust of pragmatic creditors, both dom= estically and abroad. At best, they start charging more, and, at worst, den= ying the necessary resources to shore up development where the risk is high= or increasing. From this point on, the path and the time to reach an acut= e payment crisis are short. A public debt that will not stop growing coupl= ed with high real interest rates is an explosive combination. Brazil=92s r= ecent experience shows that such a situation makes interest payments the on= e element of public expenditure that grows the most.=20 [ =84(...) the federal, internal public debt in the= form of securities continues growing, as much in absolute as in relative v= alues. By the end of last December, it was equal to R$415 billion, having = jumped to R$439 billion by the end of March, with a growth exceeding in 5,8= % that of the GNP for the same period. As for dollar figures, 1995 began w= ith a debt of 75 billion dollars against international reserves of 36 billi= on dollars. In March of this year, the debt was already R$251 billion agai= nst reserves of R$39 billion" (sic). Free translation from =84Culpa apenas = dos juros?", Cl=E1udio Haddad, Valor Econ=F4mico , July 7, 8, and 9, 2000.= ] =20
In spite of the IMF=92s usually sensible macro-economics, after a ce= rtain point, the severity of the problem makes any additional effort to adj= ust the economy based solely on orthodox methods useless. From then on, the= obstinate attempt, year after year, to generate larger and larger primary = budget surpluses (interest pay-ments excluded) is counterproductive. Its d= e-flationary effect towards the economic en-vironment (businesses) paradoxi= cally does not make viable the trust (first domestically, then abroad) in t= he country in question. That being the case, to insist on the painful adjus= tment in-spired by the IMF becomes like shooting oneself in the foot. There= fore, under certain circumstances, besides being technically ques-tionable = and politically unsustainable, as the faculty at PUC once argued, the macro= -economic strategy suggested by the IMF becomes ineffective and particularl= y un-desirable in countries like Brazil due to the damaging effect which th= e autophagic vicious circle exerts on an already unjust distribution of nat= ional wealth, one of the world=92s worst.=20

The IMF solut= ion

The not always effective solution proposed by the IMF is simple and = painful: in order to reduce the fiscal deficit and to contain the explosion= of public debt, it is necessary to increase taxes or to reduce non-financi= al expenses and, in this manner, compensate for the snowballing increase of= interest-bearing expenses - the untouchable debt service. In spite of the = political difficulty, the IMF warns that postponing the implementation of s= uch measures would aggravate the problem. The traditional way out, through = monetization of the deficit and of the public debt, is impossible over a lo= nger period in an economy with an inflationary tradition which is, as a con= es-quence, predictably indexed, formally or in-formally. If it is necessary= to adjust the eco-nomy, full indexation, in order to preserve the real rev= enue from all economic agents, is impossible: It is a matter of distributiv= e incom-patibility. For the IMF, the difficulties in debtor countries are a= result of the excessive absorption of real resources from abroad. That is= , they result from the excess aggregate expenditure in relation to the dome= stic product in real terms. The problem is that these countries insist on s= pending more than they have. The excess expenditure is attributed to high g= overnment spending, as if these were always superfluous and compressible ad nutum.

Revisiting th= e crises

Since it is possible, now and then, to find alternative explanations= for the payment crises, it is also reasonable to technically question the = diagnosis and the measures proposed by the IMF. It would do well to remembe= r that, in part, the chagrin experienced by Brazil, or by other debtor, non= oil exporting countries, for instance, was aggravated by the abrupt de-ter= ioration in the terms of trade that took place in 1973/74 and 1979/80. And = that, without mentioning the harmful impact on the respec-tive balance of p= ayments caused by the increase of international interest rates driven by th= e upward movement of the basic rate in the United States, which reached abo= ut 20% a year in the late seventies and early eighties.
A recent example of the inappropriate action by the IMF is the case = in Japan. When the speculative bubble burst, the unfounded eupho-ria of the= real estate market was followed by recession, having implications for Japa= n=92s economy, or for the region as a whole, which are not yet resolved. In= fact, only recently did Asia begin to emerge from the poorly adminis-trate= d problem that culminated in the crisis of 1997, with repercussions through= out the world, especially in Brazil. Essentially, the Asian crisis was also= a result of the imprudent and abrupt slowing down of the regional driving = engine: Japan. Today, the consensus is that the restrictive action taken by= the IMF, based on a faulty diagnosis, aggravated the problem. The IMF indu= ced Asian countries to reduce demand, when it was necessary to increase it.= Something that symptomatically went unno-ticed by its technicians.

An inadequate= strategy

Faced with the impossibility of obtaining relief from high fo= reign debt (which, generally, is indexed just as domestic debt), countries = like Brazil found themselves obligated to go from net importers to net expo= rters of real resources. At that point, it became necessary to effect-tive= ly adjust the economy. The transition is painful, particularly because the = transfer of real resources abroad has to be absorbed inter-nally, through t= he reduction of aggregate expenditure (consumption, investments, and govern= ment spending). The problem is a dif-ficult one, since no country or segmen= t of society willingly absorbs losses. And it is not easy to choose and t= o comfort the inevitable losers, since everything has its breaking point, i= ncluding fiscal and monetary restraint. =20 [ =84A ruptura no mercado internacional de cr=E9dit= o", Andr=E9 Lara Resende, pg. 41.]=20
The known IMF prescription attempts to force an indebted economy to = reduce expenditure, especially through the reduction of the public deficit,= in order to obtain the real resources necessary to eliminate, or minimize,= the deficit in the current account of the balance of pay-ments. Such polic= y is not decided upon demo-cratically and mainly reflects the interests of = the developed world, especially those of the IMF=92s biggest shareholder - = The United States. In practice, the IMF tries to ensure that com-mitments = with the international financial sys-tem are honored according to contracts= . In so doing, beyond the waste imposed on assisted countries (the unemplo= yment of machines, people, and natural resources), this under-standable, al= beit not always adequate strategy, is particularly harmful in a global cris= is scenario. When recessive measures are im-posed simultaneously and repeat= edly on so many debtor countries, they do not bring about a permanent solu= tion if the crisis is nearly generalized, as was the case in the eighties. = In this case, such measures are also apt to jeopardize the good operation o= f the in-ternational financial system itself. When their effects are evalua= ted in the context of a global, general equilibrium model, it is clear that= , by reducing its imports, each country in difficulty also reduces the expo= rts of at least one of its commercial partners. Persisting with such strate= gy would make it difficult to break the vicious circle.

Orthodox IMF,= unorthodox solution

How is one to break the Gordian knot which, further tightened by the= conditions imposed by agreements with the IMF, has been paralyzing develop= ing countries for a long time, including Brazil=92s cyclothymic and still v= ulnerable economy? By the way, an economy that, with respect to economic g= rowth, has just lived through the end of a second partially wasted, if not = completely lost, decade - that of the nine-ties. It is necessary to advise = against easy or immediate solutions. They are nothing but pan-aceas. The tr= ue solution (medium- or long-term) requires unorthodox attitudes, wh= ich will permit molding the productive structure to the new relative prices= , as well as to other current conditions in the changing international mar-= ket. The paradigm changed and continues to change rapidly. The IMF also nee= ds to moder-nize itself in order to become, among other things, a true lend= er of last resort. As such, it should concentrate its efforts on res= toring the liquidity of member countries. Besides, the Fund should start re= cognizing and taking into account particularities of countries as well as t= he internal and external circumstances which condition economic policy, esp= ecially after the irreversible globalization.=20
The definitive solution for the crisis in Brazil (or in other indebt= ed countries), besides not being unique, is viable only over a long period,= as long as it is pursued through measures that are different from the a= d hoc steps (more emergency-minded than structural) which have been imp= lemented by implicit or explicit pressure from the IMF. Such measures are a= l-ways imposed at particularly acute moments in the recurrent payment crise= s, when it is no longer possible to contest them. The popular perception, h= eaded by opposition parties, unions, and Brazil=92s National Confederation = of Bishops (CNBB), for example, is that the IMF=92s basic macroeconomic ori= entation does not always make sense over a longer period. Frequently, besi= des not helping to structurally balance finances and, in this way, permanen= tly stabilize the economies of assisted countries, the therapy imposes a ve= ry high social cost, which, however, is seen as useless, from a Pavlovian s= tandpoint. This cost is evidenced by the low rate of economic growth, by th= e high unemployment rates (open or disguised), and by the growing scarcity = of resources, even for urgent social spending.
In fact, this seems to have been the logic that permeated the conclu= sions reached at the con-ference that took place at PUC in 1982, which was = unanimously supported by participants and summarized by Persio Arida, the o= rganizer of the compiled works. In Arida=92s words: =84First, recession as = a strategy is inadequate, not only in promoting the country=92s adjustment = to the restrictions imposed by the difficulty in obtaining foreign currency= loans, but also in reducing the public deficit. Second, it is neces-sary t= o overcome the naive terms of the political dilemma of austerity versus re-= negotiation through a careful evaluation of the costs and benefits of each = alternative when faced with international scenarios with any degree of plau= sibility. Third, it is of pressing importance to maintain the public invest= ment rate and to stimulate private investment through planning policies tha= t are not short-sighted, which will permit the realigning of the country=92= s productive structure. Fourth, suc-cessful external adjustment presupposes= internal adjustments in the form of changes in the fiscal parameters and i= n relative prices compatible with the search for distributive equity."=20 [Free translation from the original =84Introdu=E7= =E3o", P=E9rsio Arida, pgs. 11-12.]
Therefore, for some time, the Brazilian people have suspected that, = instead of indiscriminately cutting public expenditure, including invest-me= nts, as proposed by the IMF and is being done by the government, the countr= y should be investing in recycling its industrial facilities and in its cit= izens, both paralyzed by an economic policy that, in some respects, is in f= act self-destructive and denationalizing. Recently, the perception by an e= xpressive segment of the population, including one or other member of the g= overnment, is that such policy, although successful up to now in controllin= g inflation, has failed so far with regards to development, perhaps for bei= ng excessively based on standardized suggestions by a biased IMF. In= the final analysis, the inexorable conclusion is that there is no possible= long lasting solution for the recurrent payment difficulties, including th= e present one, outside of economic growth at rates more com-patible with th= e needs of the country. Rates which are determined by the country=92s stage= of development and, above all, which are able to eliminate the cruel imbal= ance observed in the Brazilian job market.
Once again, in the words of the former re-searcher of the Research I= nstitute of Applied Economics (IPEA) and professor at PUC, Pedro Malan: =84= It should be noted that growth rates of the product below 6% would be unlik= ely to decrease the absorption of flow, estimated at one and a half million= people who, every year, join the country=92s =91economically active pop= ulation=92." =20 [Free translation from the original =84Recess=E3o e= renegocia=E7=E3o", Pedro Malan, pg. 107 .]
With regards to em-ployment levels, if this was the situation in 1982/8= 3, imagine how much worse it has become since then, after two decades of pr= o-duct growth rates being, on average, way below the line sensibly establis= hed by the Minister of the Treasury. The dissatisfaction with the orthodox = methods is not totally unreasonable. As a matter of fact, the economic prog= rams suggested by the IMF do not give priority to investments and to the pr= eservation of the employment level (the economic development), in spite of = the sac-rifice repeatedly imposed on the population of assisted countries. = In Brazil, for example, the unemployment rate has been reaching record leve= ls, not to mention the underemployment or the growing informalization of the economy. The inevitable consequence is that, for nearly two decad= es now, the mediocre performance of the economy does not allow the absorpti= on of citizens who want, and need, to work.=20
The resources that are saved domestically through painful primary bu= dget surpluses, or obtained abroad in the form of costly new loans, are use= d almost exclusively to serve domestic and foreign debts. Even so, these de= bts do not stop growing. And, as long as new investments are not realized i= n adequate di-mension and in due time, the industrial facilities in Brazil = are less and less prepared to compete in the changing and increasingly more= aggressive international scenario. Similarly, the difficulties met by incr= easingly insecure citi-zens are perceptible. Faced with scarcity of social = investment resources, they are at a growing disadvantage in relation to the= ir competitors in developed countries regarding factors that, over a long p= eriod, determine productive capability, competitiveness, and the well-being= of the people: health, education, and good quality employment for all. =20

A new pattern= ?

Also in Brazil, in spite of the understandable and, in some ways, ju= stified optimism of the official discourse (inflation has been under contro= l since mid 1994), the traditional IMF prescription (fiscal and monetary re= straint, liberation of the markets, and privatization) is no longer accepte= d without reservation. After the increasingly frequent, heterogeneous, and = severe financial crises observed in the last decade (Asia, Russia and Brazi= l), the per-ception is that the model based only on the Washington <= i>consensus is not a panacea. It is no longer possible, for example, = to ignore the growing instability caused by the increase of short-term capi= tal flow in a globalized and computerized world. The vulnerability of count= ries, especially of economically unstable countries, increases when financi= al markets are less regulated and more open. Also for that reason, grows t= he plea for a new global financial architecture - a new paradigm -, includi= ng for the IMF. It is only a matter of deciding the form and rhythm which w= ill cha-acterize the indispensable changes in the framework that was set up= over half a century ago.=20

The Meltzer R= eport and others

The architecture of the international financial system is being incr= easingly questioned both by the left and the right.=20 [=84The international financial system: a new archi= tecture?", Marc=EDlio Marques Moreira, DIMAC/IPEA seminars, number 23, Jul= y 2000.].
Professor Joseph Stiglitz, former World Bank Chief Economist and potenti= al winner of the Nobel Prize, for example, recently attacked the IMF. Acco= rding to Stiglitz, the Fund is an institution which frequently diagnoses po= orly and imposes wrong macroeconomic adjustment programs on countries that = it assists. This is done in a manner that is little transparent and not muc= h according to the implicit or explicit interests of these countries, but = rather mainly according to the interests of the United States Treasury Depa= rtment. =20 [=84What I learned at the world economic crisis. T= he Insider". Joseph Stigilitz, mimeo., 2000.]=20
Another recent criticism of the IMF stemmed from an evaluation reque= sted by the United States National Congress from a group of experts. The re= sult was a conservative pro-posal to cut down on the size and attributions<= b> of the IMF and of the World Bank. The so-called Meltzer Report, as i= t is known, suggests that the IMF merely be a kind of World Central Bank - = a selective lender of last resort to provide liquidity to pre-qualified and= solvent economies during turbulent, vulnerable peri-ods, when financial pa= nic could arise. Only in the cases of systemic crises, and to avoid a great= er evil, would the IMF indiscriminately lend resources to member countries.= Others, even more radically, propose the extinction of the IMF, as well as= of other important international financial institutions. That is what Geor= ge Schultz, for example, did in an article written with William E. Simon an= d Walther B. Wriston. =20 [Who needs the IMF?". Wall Street Journal , 02/03= /2000.]=20

Democracy and= development at the IMF?

It is known that the IMF is not a democratic institution. The Managi= ng Director of the IMF is chosen by the house executive committee, where th= e decision criterion is closer to one dollar, one vote than to = one person, one vote. The voting power is distributed according to eac= h country=92s quotas, which in turn reflect the country=92s size. The group= formed by de-veloping countries and former communist countries hold 40% of= the votes. The remaining 60% go to developed countries.=20 [=84Chega de negocia=E7=F5es de bastidores" (transl= ated from the Financial Times), Jeffrey Sachs, Gazeta Mercantil, 11/18/1999= .]
These developed countries control the institution=92s philosophy and op= eration, which, in practice, have been used to submit the developing countr= ies (debtors) to the specific interest of the developed world (creditor). T= his situation seems inadequate in a multilateral institution, where the mod= el should approach that of an arrangement by which each country would have = the right to one vote. For, it is necessary that the burden of economic = adjustment be democratically shared in a more equitable way among unbal= anced countries, whether they are deficit (debtor) or surplus (creditor) co= untries.
It is also desirable that the IMF be transformed into a true lender = of last resort. To that end, contrary to what is suggested by the Meltzer = Report or the proposal headed by Schultz, the Fund would need a lot more re= sources. That being the case, on the one hand, the IMF must be strengthened= in order to carry out its ob-jective in helping member countries to surviv= e during temporary liquidity crises (short-term). On the other hand, the I= MF was not created to be, nor should it be transformed, even if in-directly= , into an institution in charge of shaping the economic structure of member= countries through biased manipulation of conditionalities or performance c= riteria. This would be a dys-function, for the IMF was not created for the = purpose of orienting development strategies (long-term) of these cou= ntries. Within certain limits, that is the purpose of the World Bank

Conclusion an= d reservations

In spite of the noisy populist rhetoric, there is no interest in the= demoralization or extinction of the IMF. There is, rather, firm intention = to improve the relationship of all member coun-tries with the institution, = although emphasizing the urgent need to reform it. The perception is that t= he IMF is an indispensable institution both in rescuing countries in tempor= ary dif-ficulty as well as in guaranteeing the good operation of the intern= ational financial system. However, opposition parties and many non-governme= ntal organizations naturally reverbe-rate the growing and understandable po= pular perception that the IMF needs to be rethought, restructured, and re-d= imensioned. It is believed that only in this way, particularly in a glo-ba= lized environment, the institution will be able to serve the real and heter= ogeneous interests of all member countries (the greater part of them debtor= s) and not the specific interests of de-veloped and powerful countries (cre= ditors) like the United States.
Like in other emerging countries, the Brazilian government, supporte= d by the legitimate and symptomatic popular pressure, needs to act to help = hasten the reforms which will make it possible for institutions like the IM= F to survive and to better treat both domestic financial systems as well as= independent currencies. In this respect, it is befitting to reflect on the= words of Professor James Tobin of Yale University at the Annual World Bank= Con-ference of Development Economics: =84The presumption that currency cri= ses are just the fault of the victims is still all too prevalent among the = statesmen of world finance and, of course, among media pundits". The laurea= te professor went on to say=84. Effective inter-nationalization is not unmi= tigated laissez faire. Let us encourage them [emerging countries] to build = good national financial systems, not just open their doors ever wider."=20 [=84 Financial globalization: can national currenc= ies survive ?". Washington, 1998.]=20
Finally, in the past, the Brazilian government signed but failed to = comply with many letters of intention with the IMF. On the other han= d, the present government seems to want to fulfill, at any cost, its commit= ment (the goals) with the important, albeit in some respects, admittedly aged institution. They are both extreme pos-tures. Alternatively, a m= ature relationship, of true partnership, between the IMF and Brazil, presup= poses the ability of the Brazilian govern-ment to negotiate, and of the Fun= d, to accept, not only emergency loans, but, above all, conditionalities an= d performance criteria that recognize the legitimate long-term objectives o= f a democratic and sovereign country of un-deniable importance in the inter= national community. The IMF and Brazil are partners, even though, at times,= they are partners in conflict. It is better to have it this way, for it wo= uld be worse if they were enemies, even if cordial enemies feigning a honey= moon in Prague. =20
Marcelo Lara Resende Ph.D. of the Yale University
=A9 Friedrich Ebert Stiftung | technical su= pport | net edition=20 fes-library | Juli 2001

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