The welfare state and globalisation are compatible / [Alfred Pfaller] - [Electronic ed.] - Bonn, 2001 - [2] Bl. =3D 22 KB, Te= xt . - (Policy information / International Policy Analysis Unit ; 2001,1) Electronic ed.: Bonn : FES Library, 2001 =A9 Friedrich-Ebert-Stif= tung

From: Snapshot-Content-Location: https://library.fes.de/fulltext/id/01046.htm Subject: =?utf-8?Q?The=20welfare=20state=20and=20globalisation=20are=20compatible?= =?utf-8?Q?=20/=20[Alfred=20Pfaller]=20-=20[Electronic=20ed.]=20-=20Bonn,?= =?utf-8?Q?=202001=20-=20[2]=20Bl.=20=3D=2022=20KB,=20Text=20.=20-=20(Poli?= =?utf-8?Q?cy=20information=20/=20International=20Policy=20Analysis=20Unit?= =?utf-8?Q?=20;=202001,1)=20
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=C2=A9=20Friedrich-Eb?= =?utf-8?Q?ert-Stiftung?= Date: Wed, 7 May 2025 17:54:10 +0200 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----MultipartBoundary--71dAJksrdeyHsEYPUQdO6syMPe07xx6QkwaAo0SxAy----" ------MultipartBoundary--71dAJksrdeyHsEYPUQdO6syMPe07xx6QkwaAo0SxAy---- Content-Type: text/html Content-ID: Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: https://library.fes.de/fulltext/id/01046.htm The welfare state and globalisation are compatible / [Alfred Pfaller] - [Electronic ed.] - Bonn, 2001 - [2] Bl. =3D 22 KB, Te= xt . - (Policy information / International Policy Analysis Unit ; 2001,1) Electronic ed.: Bonn : FES Library, 2001 =A9 Friedrich-Ebert-Stif= tung

FES

The welfare state and globalisation are compatible / [Alfred Pfaller] - [Electronic ed.] - Bonn, 2001 - [2] Bl. =3D 22 KB, Te= xt . - (Policy information / International Policy Analysis Unit ; 2001,1)
Electronic ed.: Bonn : FES Library, 2001

=A9 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

Text also available in German language

Uncom= petitive, because too costly?

=20

=84The welfare state as we know it can no longer be maintained in th= e age of globalisation." This argument meets with wide acceptance today, by= some with regret, by others with undisguised satisfaction. The argument re= fers to the pressure on costs deriving from heightened international compet= ition. The welfare state, it is claimed/as-sumed/feared, makes labour so ex= pensive that the relevant products or the relevant production location cann= ot survive in international competition in the longer term. Other places, s= o the argument goes, are already producing at lower costs, or else countri= es are increasingly trying to undercut one another in the battle for market= shares. The locations with the lower welfare costs set the standard which = the others will have to adapt to sooner or later.=20

If one accepts this line of argument, it follows that countries have= two options.=20

They give way to the pressure of competition, cut the costs o= f the welfare state and thus safeguard the competitiveness of the national = labour force on the internationally disputed markets. The upshot: lower soc= ial security.
They do not give way. As a consequence, many jobs are lo= st, simply because they are no longer competitive. Companies which keep the= ir production facilities in the country offset this by rationalising jobs a= way wherever they can. The upshot: increasing unemployment causing in turn = the erosion of the welfare state.

High = productivity does not protect against undercutting

Welfare state supporters in high-wage countries often use the follow= ing argument to counter this: we shall offset the high costs by high produc= tivity and high product quality. We are able to do this because of our high= level of training, our sophisticated infrastructure, our high density of p= roduction (which creates =84economies of scope"), our responsible trade uni= ons, our relatively peaceful industrial relations (a consequence of our hig= hly developed welfare state) and our more than hundred-years old =84culture= of productivity". Developing countries cannot compete with these advantage= s, but have to offset them with low wages, low real estate prices, low envi= ronmental standards, etc.

It is true that all this has in the past made possible high wages (a= nd non-wage labour costs) in the countries of the =84North", even though th= ey were facing international competition. But, among other things, =84globa= lisation" means that such advantages spread geographically, maybe not every= where, but nevertheless to many regions with a massive labour surplus. A ma= jor reason for this is the increasing possibility for companies to organise= manufacturing and distribution across national borders (=84transnationally= "). When they shift production to a different location, they also transfer = their manufacturing expertise and management skills. The upshot: the previo= us production advantage no longer protects the =84Northern" high-wage count= ries as much as it once did. The statistics may nonetheless keep attributin= g to them a productivity lead because large numbers of their low-productivi= ty jobs are shed and only the highly productive ones are left.=20

The extent to which globalisation has already advanced in terms of h= eightened competition between different locations can be regarded as an ope= n question. There are some indications that the situation is not yet all th= at dramatic. But the trend towards greater competition on costs (or even ju= st towards a greater ability to black-mail the employees) cannot be categor= ically denied.

Even = structural adjustment ultimately provides no protection

A further argument which plays down the dangers of globalisation ref= ers to the changes in production structures which have always resulted from= changes in the international division of labour: the =84North" hands over = a few lines of production to low-cost =84Southern" competitors and concentr= ates on those activities in which the latter =96 despite globalisation =96 = cannot compete (high-tech, skills-intensive production and services).

But this =96 per se correct =96 point does not devalue the argument = about cost pressures, for two reasons:=20

The high productivity sectors intended as escape routes may p= rove to be too small to absorb displaced =84Northern" workers on a sufficie= nt scale. All the industrial countries are moving into these sectors and jo= stling for position. High-tech plus local services (education, health, lega= l advice, administration, etc.) may be an option for the Greater London are= a, but not for the whole of Britain and certainly not for the whole of west= ern Europe. So low-wage competition can very much represent a threat to par= ts of the workforce in high-wage countries.
Structural adjustment does not offer protection against = competition amongst the high-wage countries to undercut one another.=20

=20

The k= ey point:
social protection is possible at any wage and productivity level

=20

Gross labour costs can only be as high as the market for goods and s= ervices allows. If foreign competition puts pressure on labour costs, then = adjustment must occur in some form. That may be via the exchange rate. But = it may also be that gross wages have to stagnate or even fall for a period = in some areas.=20

However, the welfare state has nothing to do with the absolute wage = level, and everything to do with the distribution of the gross national pro= duct (or more correctly, the total wage sum permitted by the market) betwee= n three components:

direct consumption

provision for old age, illness, etc.=20

solidarity with those on lower incomes.

The proportions allocated to provision for oneself and solidarity with o= thers go into the welfare state, with provision for oneself accounting for = the lion=92s share. The proportion to be diverted for this purpose is a = political decision, not one dictated by the market. In principle, high = proportions for provision and solidarity can even be diverted from low inco= mes. But correspondingly little will then be left over for direct individua= l consumption.=20

=20

The w= elfare state can be made =84globalisation-proof"

=20

There are various mechanisms whereby the gross wage permitted by the= world market is distributed amongst the various uses. In many continental = European countries (Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Austria and others) th= e most important mechanism is that of wage-related social security contribu= tions which are shared by employers and employees. The demands made on the = money allocated to these contributions derive from the needs of the various= social security systems (pension, health insurance, unemployment insurance= ). The key factors defining these needs are

the development of the age composition of the population,=20
the cost trends in the health sector,=20
the development on the labour market.

For the process of wage-setting, these are independent variables. If the= y are not to be questioned (so that no-one has to be ill just because he/sh= e earns little, or so that no-one has to suffer a drastic cut in his/her st= andard of living in old age), there is only one sensible conclusion: the wa= ge available for direct consumption should be treated as a residual figure.= The amount to be negotiated between employers and organised labour should = be the =84total hourly wage", and not merely that arbitrary sub-set which i= s called the =84gross wage" in some countries (e.g. Germany). The =84total = hourly wage" derives from

the competitive situation on the product markets (=84globalis= ation" may play a role here),
and the bargaining power of labour, which has much to do= with the scarcity of manpower.

Once the - individual and collective - preferences with regard to the pr= ovisions to be made for the various risks of life and the degree of solidar= ity to be afforded for the less well-to-do (as well as with regard to leisu= re and the freedom from excessive mobility) have been taken into considerat= ion, a net wage is left over. It would have to be adjusted to the changing = =84needs" of the social security systems.=20

However, in reality net wages are mostly not adjusted but defended. = If at the same time social security costs are expanding (e.g. because of ad= verse demographics), competitiveness might indeed be affected. Of course, i= n the individual case, the claim of =84excessive" labour costs may just be = part of the usual battle noise accompanying wage negotiations. But the poin= t here is that in the bargaining process labour loses sight of the =96 esse= ntially political =96 decision about the distribution of the total w= age and that it perceives social-security contributions as being not part o= f the wage. Employers also view them as =84non-wage" labour costs. When the= conflict over labour costs heightens, it is primarily the expanding =84non= -wage" part which is seen as endangering competitiveness. The =84welfare st= ate versus global market" battlelines are drawn. Yet the real problem is th= e rigidity of the net wages in the face of =96 largely unavoidable =96 risi= ng welfare costs.=20

A system which uses general taxation to pay for provision and solida= rity, as the Danish one, is more resilient in the face of globalisation. He= re, the basic decisions on distribution between consumption, provision and = solidarity are clearly taken politically. The costs for provision and solid= arity are explicitly deducted from the incomes of the individuals. Since, i= n view of international competition, companies can be taxed only to a certa= in extent, increases in the funding needs of the social security systems ty= pically have to be financed by taxes on household incomes or on consumptio= n (value-added tax, energy tax, etc.).

Another way to immunise the welfare state against globalisation is t= o essentially privatise provision for the risks of life and to leave only s= olidarity to be organised by the state. This is most clearly possible with = regard to old-age pensions (the largest single position of the total welfar= e-state bill), because here the level of benefits depends, to a very large = extent, on the amount of the contributions paid into the system. Privatisat= ion, therefore, will not diminish social protection. But it will defuse the= conflict over =84non-wage" labour costs. The Swiss pension system shows ho= w private provision can be combined with welfare-state solidarity. There th= e elderly are protected against poverty by an egalitarian basic pension, wh= ich is contributed to by all citizens (not only employees). But keeping up = one=92s standard of living after retirement requires a private top-up insur= ance.=20

The demographic transition makes provision for old-age income - rega= rdless of the pension system - ever more expensive and thus reduces the inc= ome available for immediate consumption. Therefore it would be especially i= mportant to stay clear of the competitiveness issue. Ultimately, pensions a= re not at risk as long as people opt to make provision. But the unnecessary= competitiveness debate puts at risk the solidarity dimension of the welfar= e state, i.e. the implicit and explicit subsidies to families and to those = on low income (important e.g. in public health insurance).=20

=84Immunising" social benefits against the pressure of competition p= oses no problem in economic terms. But in quasi-corporatist states like Ger= many it is very difficult to alter existing institutions, since every entit= lement, no matter how petty, tends to be defended. In political terms, ther= efore, this type of welfare state remains susceptible to pressures from glo= balisation.=20

=20

The w= elfare state and full employment

=20

So far, however, the pressure on the continental European welfare st= ates has come less from globalisation than from mass unemployment. This for= m of the welfare state is mainly funded by contributions linked to regular = employment contracts. Thus, it relies more on full employment than other fo= rms of the welfare state. Mass unemployment deprives it of people paying in= and increases its outgoings.=20

Mass unemployment is not a result of globalisation. It is the effect= of 25 years of sluggish economic growth combined with a failure to adapt t= he labour markets to this central condition.=20

When reflecting on how to safeguard the welfare state, one should th= erefore focus on:=20

adapting the labour market to sluggish economic growth, or
=20
regaining high growth rates, and, of course,=20
adapting the supply of manpower to the changed struct= ure of demand.

These are questions which involve a separate discussion. But, to begin w= ith at least, globalisation is a secondary problem here which tends to dist= ract attention from the real questions.

Once again, the key factor blocking a socially acceptable adaptation= of the labour market is political in nature.=20

Never= theless, globalisation does make life more difficult for the welfare state<= /font>

A =84globalisation-proof" welfare state is feasible. But it requires= a big political effort the success of which is not a priori guaranteed. St= ill, globalisation does create a less favourable economic environment.

1. Increased mobility of capital, coupled with increased mobil= ity of highly skilled labour, results in a redistribution of the tax burden= .

The consequence is greater injustice, but for the foreseeable future= no lack of funding for the welfare state. Even in the past, the welfare st= ate has not tended to be a mechanism for redistribution from capital to lab= our or from the rich to the poor. In simplified terms, it was always a mass= ive redistribution machine within the working class. The people who funded = it were always those who benefited most from it.=20

Besides, several countries grant =84tax gifts" to various groups of = high earners, without there being an economic necessity for such privileges= .=20

2. Insufficiently regulated capital markets are endangering ec= onomic growth and thus making it more difficult to maintain existing welfar= e state schemes.

Overshoots in exchange movements keep harming the competitive= ness of countries or induce them to keep interest rates high, which in turn= impairs economic growth.=20

Repeated financial crises in individual countries or gro= ups of countries result in a decline in demand which is felt around the wor= ld.

As a consequence, the maintenance of the welfare state principle (approp= riate parti-cipation of all citizens in national prosperity) is rendered mo= re difficult, because:

unemployment tends to be higher (the consequence: higher clai= ms on the welfare state, lower contributions, the threat of poverty for the= long-term unemployed and for workers with a low scarcity value on the labo= ur market);
in the battle for shares of stagnating or even shrinking= markets, an international race to undercut is fostered and the political w= ill to maintain a just society is weakened.

=20

Alfred Pfaller

Friedrich Ebert Foundation, 53170 Bonn, fax: +49 / 228 / 883 625, e-= mail: PfallerA@fes.de

=A9 Friedrich Ebert Stiftung | technical sup= port | net edition=20 fes-library | Juni 2001

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