РОССИЯ СЕГОДНЯ И ЗАВТРА 10 / 2011 10/2011 "The Engagement of Regional Neighbors: a Precondition for Sustainable Development in Afghanistan" Ivan Safranchuk, Ambassador Akbarsho Iskandarov About the authors: Dr. Ivan Safranchuk is associate professor, Moscow State Institute of International relations; publisher,“Great Game: politics, business, security in Central Asia”. Through 2010 he leaded the project, sponsored by Russian MFA, to research regional perspectives on the Afghani situation. Within this project bilateral workshops of Russian and local experts to discuss Afghani issues were organized in Kabul, Mazari- Sharif, Delhi, Beijing, Islamabad. In 2011 Dr. Safranchuk coordinates the project“Strengthening economic tie s between Afghanistan and neighboring countries”, implemented through ESCAP on the Russian donation. Akbarsho Iskandarov served as Ambassador of Tajikistan to Turkmenistan and to Kazakhstan. At the present time Amb. Iskandarov is a National Coordinator of Tajikistan for SCO as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies(under the President of Tajikistan), but most of the time spends in Moscow and con­tributes to the work of Russian research and political structures on Central Asian and Afghan issues. Beyond ISAF – regional engagement Since the Taliban’s military defeat and loss of power in 2001, the international coal i­tion has failed to achieve further noticeable success in Afghanistan. Economic conditions have remained poor, compounded by the lack of security and stability, while at the same time the production and trafficking of drugs has reached an unprecedented level. As a result, the Taliban has been able to consolidate its positions militarily and politically in recent years. This is a source of concern for the immediate and extended neighbors of Afghanistan. They see that they cannot fully rely on the US and NATO to bring peace and stability to Afghanis­tan. Even if the US and NATO remain committed to this course of action, the risk of failure cannot be discounted. As efforts to achieve a military victory over the Taliban have stumbled, the US and NATO cannot help but contemplate an“exit strategy”. This is not openly discussed. However, the Transition should create precisely the conditions necessary for what can be termed a “military exit”. As expressed in the Declaration(20 Nov. 2010) by the Heads of State and Govern­ment of the nations contributing to the UN-mandated, NATO-led ISAF in Afghanistan, the 1