INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Mapping Future Scenarios for the Eurozone Statistical Annex MARIA JOÃO RODRIGUES /ANTHONY FERREIRA June 2012 „ „ The Eurozone is facing a systemic crisis with far-reaching consequences for the fu­ture of the Economic and Monetary Union, European integration and Europe in the world. „ „ Economists and political scientists, besides politicians are groping around in the dark looking for a solution to the crisis and to bring the Eurozone into calmer waters. „ „ Identifying the main factors influencing the future development of the Monetary Un­ion allows us to produce various scenarios on how the Eurozone will look in 2020. „ „ Four major scenarios are conceivable.(i) The Member States can continue trying to muddle-through by means of crisis management, which may lead to the break-up of the Monetary Union;(ii) another variation of this leads to further reversals with regard to political integration;(iii) a specific combination of factors might lead to a two-tier Europe with a small hard core of Member States; alternatively,(iv)(some of) the Member States may press on to complete monetary union by means of a fiscal and political union.