INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Frustration, Fragmentation, Uncertainty Iraq on the Eve of the 2014 Parliamentary Elections ANJA WEHLER-SCHÖCK April 2014 n On April 30 th , Iraqis will be called upon to elect a new Parliament. In view of the dramatic crisis gripping the country, the elections will be taking place under most adverse conditions. The likelihood of political change, which many are longing for, seems to have receded into a dim distance. n The state has lost control over certain parts of the country in the last few months – and is currently trying to regain these with draconian methods. n Since last year, Iraq is, once again, being shaken by violence verging on civil war. 3,600 people have died from attacks in 2014 so far. There were more than 9,500 victims in 2013, the highest mark since 2008. n There is evident discontent with Nouri Maliki’s government among the population. In spite of this, his State of Law Coalition is expected to achieve a majority in the elections. n Frustration among the population is rife. Many people no longer believe that partici­pation in democratic processes such as elections will lead to change in the country. Furthermore, many people will probably stay at home on election day out of security concerns. A low voter turnout is therefore highly likely.