INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS The Return of Geopolitics Trade Policy in the Era of TTIP and TPP HERIBERT DIETER December 2014 „ „ The future of the multilateral trading system looks bleak. The main reason for this development is the return of geopolitics in a new multipolar world characterized by a declining willingness to cooperate. The lack of progress in the WTO Doha round is the main factor for the current mushrooming of preferential trade agreements. The new and very large US-led trade projects TTIP and TPP exclude the main emerging powers China, Russia, India and Brazil. „ „ For TTIP and TPP supporters these agreements are answers not only to the standstill at the multilateral trade negotiations, but also to a declining competitiveness vis-à­vis emerging nations and a declining ability of the transatlantic powers to shape the rules of cross-border commerce. In short, if the United States and Europe do not write the rules today, China will write them tomorrow. However, it appears unrealis­tic to assume that China and the other BRICS will accept rules that were negotiated without them. Instead, the creation of competing systems appears likely. „ „ Through TTIP, TPP and other preferential agreements, the United States and the EU are not only fundamentally weakening the WTO, but they are also betraying their own principles. Today, the choice is between open global regulation and an eco­nomic order built around competing blocs. EU countries, Germany in particular, have nothing of lasting value to gain from such a fragmentation of world trade. They should, therefore, not seek to isolate China and any other BRICS country.