PERSPECTIVE Greece in December 2014: The song remains the same NICK MALKOUTZIS 16 December 2014 Introduction The Greek government has surprisingly announced that presidential elections will be held in December 2014, instead of February 2015. These elections are likely to mark a critical phase in the country’s political and economic development. The chances of the government electing a president are low, making the likelihood of early elections high. If Greece does go to snap polls it will do so with the future of its relationship with the Eurozone unresolved. The bailout programme has been extended until the end of February but the final troika review has yet to be completed and there is no agreement yet on a precautionary credit line that would help Greece exit the programme and borrow from the markets. At the same time, early elections are unlikely to result in an outright majority for any party. The left party SYRIZA is leading in opinion polls but will probably need to cooperate with at least one more party. The lack of obvious governing partners means this will be a complicated process. Also, SYRIZA’s determination to seek a different kind of settlement with the Eurozone than the current government suggests there may be further turbulence ahead. Electing a president Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has named former European Union environment commissioner Stavros Dimas as the government’s candidate for president. Dimas, one of New Democracy’s vice presidents, is respected within Greek politics and not seen as a staunch party man. He is not regarded as the kind of charismatic figure that could change the dynamic in this election and win votes across the aisle. There will be a maximum of three rounds of voting: December 17, 23 and 29. Dimas needs to win at least 200 votes in the first two ballots and 180 or more in the final one. The government, which has 155 MPs, has discounted the possibility of victories in the first two and is aiming for the last vote instead. The 25 votes the government needs could come from the group of independent MPs(24), right-wing Independent Greeks(12) and Democratic Left(10). The coalition’s best hope is to win over the majority of non-aligned MPs and a handful from Democratic Left and Independent Greeks. Both parties have decided they will not support Dimas but it is possible that some lawmakers will break away. Nevertheless, the reluctance among independent MPs to vote with the government will make it difficult to elect a successor to Karolos Papoulias, the current president. If all three votes fail, Parliament has to be dissolved within 10 days and general elections have to be called within the next 30 days. The most likely dates for snap polls are January 25 or February 1, 2015. Political context The government formed after the June 2012 elections consisted of 3 parties(New Democracy, PASOK and Democratic Left) that had all promised voters an improvement of bailout terms. This plan was quickly abandoned and the coalition’s new strategy was to adhere to the EU-IMF memorandum in order to qualify for debt relief. Even though Greece produced a primary fiscal surplus in 2013- a year ahead of schedule- the promised debt reduction did not materialise.