International Conference: Current Security Challenges for the Western Balkan Region Addressed by Means of Joint Responsibility and Cooperation 106 Krenar Shala, KIPRED The Western Balkans is in institutional vacuum due to relative absence of the EU in the region. EU is in a difcult EU situation and in some years to come, it will continue to be in crisis. As a result, there is more skepticism. The Ukrainian crisis is the second problem. The UE efforts are oriented towards Ukraine crisis and less energy in invested in the Balkan reform agenda. EU neighborhood policy has been limited. There is no enlargement in the next ve years. Candidate countries will be in a difcult situation. For countries in the region, it is difcult to undertake reforms without the EU'soft diplomacy.' The internal context, there is a consensus within academics and researchers, that in order to ght nationalism effectively, there needs to be advancement in economic development, rule of law, and democratization. Rule of Law is the other thing. Justice system is very weak in the context of galloping corruption and lack of accountability and democratization. If we combine these internal and external contexts, we see there is no likelihood that the Western Balkans countries will integrate in the EU in short to medium term. Let us take BiH as an example as a dysfunctional state. It will not have the needed institutional reform, the RS is trying to be independent, and Serbia has the problem of Kosovo. Than we have Kosovo as a captured state. Montenegro is more likely to become EU member, and Macedonia is very reluctant to resolve the name issue, while Greece remains in its old position. On the other side, Albania has started implementation of reforms. However, it will face the problem with Greece like Macedonia. As you, know, there is a Law on War of Greece with Albania. So formally, now we have only a ceasere between Albania and Greece and a solution needs to be found in Albania for an issue which is very sensitive for the public. Finally, in this EU institutional vacuum, we have stronger presence of Russia diplomacy in the region. Russia's say that they are not going to allow the Slavic states to become NATO or EU members. There is enormous investment of Russia in Serbia. One-third of total investment in Montenegro are coming from Russia and it will be very hard for Montenegro to pursue its own agenda. In conclusion, I do not see very good future for the Western Balkans. Marko Prelec Marko Prelec focused his discussion on economic development. An essay written by WB expert, which talks about post-communist countries. There is a chocking conclusion that most post-communist countries did not perform well and that if we look at Western Balkans economies from 2000 when the statistics about Kosovo were introduced, having in mind that we lack the 1990's statistics and that a comparison is difcult to make. One thing is clear, however, there are only 2 countries in the Balkans, which are catching up with the poorest countries in EU, that is Romania and Bulgaria. Other countries are also growing economically, but they are lagging behind. This has been the reality the last 14 years. As one of the Copenhagen criteria relates to the free market economy and albeit there are no x criteria, it would be an exaggeration to say that catching up with Bulgaria is a good accomplishment. The problem is that this level will never be achieved. One optimistic view is that the region is catching up with the EU average, in the next to fteen years, the states in the region will achieve the minimum and will become the poorest EU