Warsaw PERSPECTIVE Poland in the EU Unavoidable marginalisation with a small question mark by GRZEGORZ GROMADZKI February 2018 n nder the current Law and Justice(PiS) government, Poland’s relations with EU institu­tions have sunk into a deep crisis. However, the problems occurred long before this. Looking at the last quarter-century, one notices a significant change in paradigms re ­garding Poland’s relations with the EU. These changes have taken the country away from the main trend of European integration, from pro-integrational determination from the times of its accession to the EU, through integrational stagnation which last­ed until the end of the PO-PSL coalition government, up to the regress in integration which started when PiS came to power in 2015. n most likely scenario for Poland’s relations with the EU until the end of the next Sejm in 2023, provided PiS continues to rule Poland, is that the sharp conflict with European institutions over Poland’s government breaching the rule of law will continue. Less prob­able is that Poland under PiS will reach a modus vivendi with the European Union(the second scenario), as this would require Warsaw to back down from actions that pose a threat to liberal democracy. Even more unlikely is a third scenario – an attempt to return to the situation that existed before the PiS government – if the current opposition wins in 2019, of which, as yet, there are no indications. All three scenarios spell Poland’s unavoid­able marginalisation in the EU. The first one would end with Poland being ostracised. The second scenario would mean further tense relations between Warsaw and Brussels, as the modus vivendi would be seen by Poland as having been imposed. The third scenario would in turn lead to a significant improvement in relations with the EU, but Poland would still remain outside the eurozone. n the fourth scenario predicts Poland’s joining the mainstream of European inte­gration by becoming a member of the eurozone. This would only be possible if there was a deep crisis after PiS won the elections in 2019, which would lead to fundamental changes in sentiment amongst the public.