FES BRIEFING MODEL ITALY – AND WHAT EUROPE NEEDS TO DO NOW Luca Argenta  /  Michael Braun  /  Tobias Mörschel March 2020 Up until 21 February Italy seemed to have been virtually unaf­fected by the corona crisis. There were three cases of infection in Rome(a Chinese tourist couple and an Italian who had just returned from China), who were rapidly located and isolated and thus did not pass on the infection to anyone else. Then, on 21 February, came the first case in Lombardy, with another in Veneto at practically the same time. It soon became clear that the chain of infection could no longer be reconstructed: evi­dently – as demonstrated by numerous further cases over the coming days – the epidemic had been rampaging for weeks, unrecognised. Since then, Italy has been confronted by expo­nential growth rates both of those infected and also of deaths. It has experienced, as the first European country, the largely uncontrolled advance of the epidemic without much of a blueprint to help it to tackle it, whether from its own history or those of other European countries. On the evening of March 18th, a total sum of 35.713 diag­nosed cases was reported, of which more than nearly 3.000 deaths. In hindsight, many of the measures that the state took in re­sponse can be regarded as hesitant. At the time, however, also abroad, a kind of antagonistic astonishment prevailed, along the lines of: is this really necessary? As early as 22 February the government established two very limited»red« quaran­tine zones and sealed off 11 municipalities in Lombardy and Veneto with around 50,000 inhabitants. This action proved insufficient to curb the advance of the virus. This was followed in the afternoon of 4 March by a decision to completely close, promptly and expeditiously, the following day, all educational institutions in the country, from crèches to universities, initially for ten days. In the meantime, closure has been extended to 3 April. On 8 March prime minister Giuseppe Conte signed a decree imposing drastic restrictions on, initially, 16 million cit­izens in the region of Lombardy and a further 14 provinces in the north. All public events were banned and it was no longer permitted to leave the house, other than to go to work, to go shopping or to perform other indispensable tasks. Only three days later these restrictions were extended, overnight, to the whole of Italy and indeed tightened up. Since then all restaurants and bars, as well as all shops selling inessential goods have been included – citizens were virtually placed un­der house arrest. Within a week, therefore, Italy had gone from school closures to the closure of the entire country, experi­encing a radical paradigm change. Even in the early days of March, for example, Milan’s mayor Giuseppe Sala had de­clared that»Milan remains open« and in some of the hardest hit crisis zones in Lombardy business people and their associ­ations had protested against further restrictions, fearing for their livelihoods. With this radical paradigm change, how­ever, Italy now provided a blueprint for Europe, includ­ing such phrases, now on everyone’s lips as,»social distanc­ing« and»flattening the curve« of the rate of infections. But because the epidemic can no longer be halted, the task now is to slow down its spread, even at the expense of citizens’ rights and the economy. This represents the only chance of avoiding the collapse of the health care system and countless deaths. The government is trying nevertheless to counteract the se­rious economic and social consequences with a wide range of measures. On 11 March Parliament decided unanimously to make available – initially – a further 25 billion euros from the state budget. On 16 March came a detailed decree that, among other things, provides for significantly expanded pay­ments for short-time working for employees, income support for the self-employed, additional payments for the costs of child care, tax deferrals for businesses and loan moratoriums. In summary, we can safely say that Italy’s government, after some initial hesitation, has shifted decisively to the imposition of restrictions that, until a few days ago, would scarcely have been imaginable in peace­time Europe. Above all, prime minister Giuseppe Conte is the face of the Italian state for its citizens in this crisis, de facto combining the roles of head of state and of government in his addresses to the people. He has distinguished himself by his extremely effective communication, appearing both calm and deter­mined, he does not skate around the severity of the restric­1