Bulgaria GENERAL INFORMATION Bulgaria is the poorest EU Member State, with a population of 6.9 million. 112 In 2020, around 32 per cent of the popula­tion was considered at risk of poverty or social exclusion. 113 The overall unemployment rate in 2020 was 5.3 per cent, 114 and the employment rate was 73.1 per cent. 115 The gross domestic product per capita in purchasing power standards in Bulgaria in 2020 was 55 per cent of the EU average. 116 Bulgaria’s relatively early promotion of solar and wind has largely stagnated in recent years, and together they made up only 6.2 per cent of generation in 2019. 119 This is high compared to the Western Balkan countries, but very low compared to Romania, where they made up 13.9 per cent. 120 Its 2020 target for the share of renewable energy in total fi­nal energy consumption was 16 per cent but it managed to achieve 21.6 per cent by 2019. 121 Bulgaria, despite widespread discontent and frequent cor­ruption scandals, had been relatively politically stable for several years compared to some of its neighbours. But in 2021 it has held no fewer than three general elections, due to the inability of any party to form a parliamentary majori­ty. It remains to be seen how long this turmoil will continue and what impacts it will have on the country’s inevitable en­ergy transition. ENERGY TRANSITION SNAPSHOT Bulgaria’s target for the share of renewables in 2030 is at least 27.09, 122 but as the EU has since raised its overall tar­get, the Member States will have to do so as well. Bulgaria was almost 3.5 times as energy intensive as the EU average in 2019, and by far the most energy-intensive EU Member State. 123 The national target energy efficiency for 2030 is that primary energy consumption will drop to 17.5 Mtoe and final energy consumption to 10.3 Mtoe. 124 The European Commission assessed these targets as show­ing low and very low levels of ambition respectively. 125 As an EU member, Bulgaria has had to align its energy poli­cy with the Energy Union strategy on energy security, the in­ternal energy market; energy efficiency contributing to lim­iting consumption; decarbonisation of the economy; and re­search, innovation and competitiveness. Yet it has often done so reluctantly. For example, it was only in 2020 that the Energy Act was amended to stipulate that non-residential customers con­nected to the low voltage electricity distribution network must enter the free market rather than buying electricity at regulated prices. 117 And Bulgaria has been one of the most reluctant EU mem­bers to pin down a phase-out date for coal, presumably be­cause of the dominance of the state-owned Bulgarian Ener­gy Holding(BEH) and its influence on policy making. The bulk of Bulgaria’s electricity mix is made up of nuclear and coal, and although the share of coal is decreasing, it was only in October 2021 that the government finally an­nounced a coal phase-out date of 2038-2040 – unrealisti­cally late considering the poor financial state of the sector. 118 The target for greenhouse gas emissions reduction in sec­tors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme by 2030 in relation to 2005 amounts to zero, and there are no clear targets for greenhouse gas reductions in the ETS sectors. In recent years Bulgaria has made significant in­vestments in gas which are likely to hinder its decarbonisa­tion process. Its persistent but so far unsuccessful plans to build new nuclear capacity also appear to be a distraction from saving energy and increasing the share of renewa­bles. INCLUSIVE ENERGY TRANSITION JUST TRANSITION Bulgaria has been extremely slow to start planning a just transition, and the government’s main tactic has been deni­al. Its NECP implies that coal will be around for a long time yet:‘ Bulgaria makes maximum use of the existing potential of indigenous coal in compliance with applicable environ­mental regulation...[C]oal(sic) has the potential to provide 112 Eurostat, Population on 1 January(DEMO_GIND), accessed 8 Decem­ber 2021. 113 Eurostat, People at risk of poverty or social exclusion(ILC_PEPS01), accessed 8 December 2021. 114 Eurostat, Total unemployment rate(UNE_RT_A), accessed 8 December 2021. 115 Eurostat, Employment rate by sex, age group 20-64(LFSI_EMP_A), accessed 8 December 2021. 116 Eurostat, GDP per capita in PPS(PRC_PPP_IND), accessed 8 December 2021. 117 Dimitar Zwiatkov, Maria Harizanova and CMS Bulgaria,‘Bulgaria: all companies set to enter the free electricity market from 1 October 2020’, Balkan Green Energy News, 24 August 2020. 118 Europe Beyond Coal, Bulgaria announces climate-failing coal exit, 15 October 2021. 119 IEA, Data and Statistics: Electricity, Bulgaria, 2019, accessed 8 Decem­ber 2021. 120 IEA, Data and Statistics: Electricity, Romania, 2019, accessed 8 Decem­ber 2021. 121 European Commission, Europe 2020 targets: statistics and indicators for Bulgaria, accessed 19 November 2021. 122 Ministry of Energy and Ministry of the Environment and Water, In­tegrated energy and climate plan of the Republic of Bulgaria 2021– 2030, accessed, 4 November 2020. 123 Eurostat, Energy intensity[nrg_ind_ei], accessed 8 December 2021. 124 Ministry of Energy and Ministry of the Environment and Water, In­tegrated energy and climate plan of the Republic of Bulgaria 2021– 2030. 125 European Commission, Commission Staff Working Document, As­sessment of the final national energy and climate plan of Bulgaria, 14 October 2020. 27