FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – INCLUSIVE ENERGY TRANSITION IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE resources for electricity generation in the next 60 years.’ 126 But an annex to the NECP 127 shows the expected level of coal use in 2030 – and in reality, coal use has already de­creased to this level. 128 So, the transition is coming faster than the government expects. Some actors have started to think about a just transition, however. 129 In 2020 the Stara Zagora Regional Economic Development Agency, 130 consisting of local authorities, in­dustry and academia, organised a public discussion 131 on the future of the region. It has also initiated a regional council on the European Green Deal to help facilitate the preparation of the region’s Territorial Just Transition Plan and unlock vital funding from the EU’s Just Transition Mech­anism. A new industrial zone has also been initiated to at­tract investments that could potentially offset some of the future job losses. 132 The role of trade unions in the process is ambiguous. There is some understandable resistance to change in a situation where the government does not have a clear plan. However some have also started suggesting ways to create alterna­tive employment opportunities for coal workers, for exam­ple the construction of a utility-scale solar plant on the for­mer open-cast mines with possible participation and share ownership by the workers. 133 Overall, with the increasing availability of funding from the EU for just transition, it is expected that this process will dra­matically speed up in Bulgaria. HOUSEHOLDS AS ENERGY CONSUMERS AND TAXPAYERS Bulgaria has already had costly experiences with a renewa­ble energy incentive scheme and as a result has been reluc­tant to provide incentives for renewables in recent years. This has also damaged the reputation of renewable energy and the transition in general. Now, only projects below 30 kW can get feed-in tariffs. 126 Ministry of Energy and Ministry of the Environment and Water, ­Integrated energy and climate plan of the Republic of Bulgaria 2021– 2030. 127 Republic of Bulgaria, Ministry of Energy and Ministry of the Envi­ronment and Water, Reporting of used parameters and variables included in Annex 1, part 2, of the Energy Union Governance as agreed in trilogue, Annex to the NECP, accessed 8 December 2021. 128 Pippa Gallop, Emily Gray, Elena Nikolovska, Alexandru Musta ță , and Raluca Petcu, PEET The Political Economy of Energy Transition in Southeast Europe – Barriers and Obstacles, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, September 2021, 56. 129 Toma Pavlov, Bulgaria’s Post-Coal Future: How Political Shortsighted­ness Dooms the Just Transition, just-transition.info, 28 January 2021. 130 Stara Zagora Regional Economic Development Agency, accessed 8 December 2021. 131 Interreg Europe, Dialogue on low-carbon economy in Stara Zagora, 28 September 2020. 132 Zagore Industrial Zone, accessed 19 November 2021. 133 КНСБ, Нуждаем се от плавен преход, енергийна и социална сигурност при реализирането на Зелената сделка , 22 July 2020, However, as prices of solar photovoltaic installations have decreased, it is now economic for commercial and industri­al customers in Bulgaria to invest without financial incen­tives. 134 This should help to reduce the cost burden of the energy transition on electricity consumers, as the support scheme for the plants installed before 2012 has already been changed 135 in order to cost less and will gradually fade away in the coming years as the already-signed contracts expire. Though the transition will of course cost consumers in oth­er ways, it can also be a chance to stop propping up the fail­ing coal industry with State aid, so such opportunities need to be underlined to the public. Like many of its regional peers, Bulgaria is not doing well in tackling energy poverty. There is no estimate of the number of energy-poor households, nor is there a target to reduce this number, even though Bulgaria appears to have one of the highest rates of energy poverty in the EU. In 2018, 33.7 per cent of people reported that they were unable to keep their homes adequately warm, while the correspond­ing EU average was 7.3 per cent. 136 Relatively low coverage of social assistance benefits and low energy inefficiency ex­acerbate the problem. Policies on energy poverty have fo­cused on financial assistance or renovation and retrofitting of residential buildings, though this is not always carried out to a high standard. Positively, energy poverty will be tackled at the national lev­el for the first time thanks to a measure aimed at improving efficiency in buildings under the Recovery and Resilience Fa­cility. The government is planning to allocate at least EUR 10 million of EU funds to co-finance energy efficiency and renewable energy projects in private buildings, both mul­ti-family and single-family. In total, the programme is ex­pected to benefit more than 10,000 households. 137 PROSUMERS Due to drops in the price of solar technology, the market for distributed solar in Bulgaria is starting to grow, in spite of re­maining administrative barriers and an incomplete policy and regulatory framework. This is mainly driven by industri­al customers – for households, however, there are still cost issues involved, even for projects receiving feed-in tariffs, as small projects are not proportionally easier or cheaper to prepare than large ones. 138 134 Toby D. Couture, Toma Pavlov and Teodora Stoyanova, Scaling-up Distributed Solar PV in Bulgaria. 135 Ivana Naydenova, Promotion in Bulgaria, RES Legal, 23 January 2019. 136 European Commission, Energy Poverty Advisory Hub, Indicators, 2018. 137 Christophe Jost, Energy efficiency and renewables in buildings in na­tional recovery and resilience plans, CEE Bankwatch Network, 14 July 2021. 138 Toby D. Couture, Toma Pavlov and Teodora Stoyanova, Scaling-up Distributed Solar PV in Bulgaria. 28