Reform Programmes in Hungary: Lisbon Matters? Table 4. General government net lending and general government gross debt (% of GDP) figures in the Convergence Programme, and actual values 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 General government net lending CP 2004 CP 2005 Difference Actual value 4.5 3.8 3.1 2.4 1.8 5.4 6.1 4.7 3.3 1.9 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.1 5.4 6.1 General government gross debt CP 2004 CP 2005 Difference Actual value 57.3 55.3 53.0 50.6 48.3 57.2 57.7 58.4 57.9 56.2 -0.1 2.4 5.4 7.3 7.9 57.2 58.4 Source:Government of the Republic of Hungary(2005), p. 36, Gazdasági és Közlekedési Minisztérium(2006), p. 6, Vida(2006), p. 144. However, it is not by chance that the European Commission decided to request a new version of the CP from Hungary up till September 2006. The diverging trend of public deficit continued in 2006, and in the period January to June, the accumulated deficit has reached 72.7% of the(already modified) value planned for the whole year, which is(in the first six months of the year!) 5.6% of the planned yearly GDP(Pénzügyminisztérium, 2006, p.1). Analysts estimate the general government/debt ratio to be around 8-10%- this range covers figures about twice as much as the figure in the 2005 version of the CP. Of course, this also has a negative effect on the trend of the gross government debt/GDP ratio, and makes potential conflicts between the CP and the NRP more probable. Priorities and measures listed in the NRP in the macroeconomic field are related to the above aspects, and try to contribute to the changes which can support macroeconomic stability. Structural changes are foreseen in order to secure economic stability(a pre-condition for sustainable growth). In order to reach long-term sustainability of the general government, inter-related steps are necessary: to continue the pension reform, to begin the reform of healthcare, to take measures targeted at the increase of employment, and to achieve a budgetary balance ensuring the appropriate rate of decrease of government debt. Decentralisation of income is an important objective of fiscal policy. The most important instruments planned in this field are the reform of the tax regime and that of the contribution system. As increasing price stability creates a more 123
Konferenzband
Reforms in Lisbon strategy implementation : economic and social dimensions ; proceedings of the international conference
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