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Bulgaria and the global crisis : economic, social and political implications
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Bulgaria with its high economic dynamism and financial stability is in a good position to counter the global crisis. Over the past seven years it succeeded in registering high growth rates, in attracting foreign investors and capital and in bringing down unemployment. Thanks to a prudent fiscal policy, it managed to build solid reserves and even to generate budget surpluses in recent years. The Currency Board has been and will remain the guarantor of stability. In the last quarter of 2008, though, the repercussions of the global finan ­cial and economic crisis could clearly be felt in Bulgaria too. It is to be expected that under its impact Bulgarias economic growth will slow down considerably. Bulgaria does not face the risk of a collapse in its banking sector and tremors in the national economy can be cushioned with additional economic programmes, while social disruptions can be minimized through adequate labour market policies. The crisis will lead to an overdue cleansing and market consolidation, especially in the real estate sector. The global crisis may lead to a new boom in Bulgariascorruption econo ­my. With investments going down and the money flow from abroad deplet ­ing, public expenditure and public tenders will grow as a counter-measure, thus increasing thecorruption pressure in the institutions involved. The extent to which the global financial and economic crisis will impact in Bulgaria will also determine how substantially this might affect social and political parameters. March 2009