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Conventional arms control during wartime, in ceasefire and post-conflict situations
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A N A LYS E Wolfgang Zellner Conventional arms control during wartime, in ceasefire and post-conflict situations Against the background of Russias war against Ukraine it would be reasonable to imagine that the days of conven­tional arms control are numbered. Over recent decades, conventional arms control in Europe has been conceived mainly as part of a cooperative political relationship. In other words, there is no room for conventional arms control in an environment characterised by confrontation, deter­rence and war. On closer inspection, however, there is a dis­tinct role for arms control even during wartime and its en­suing phases. However, the aims and instruments of such a new kind of conventional arms control are quite different from what we have been used to dealing with over the past three decades. To explore what kinds of arms control might be useful under current conditions, supplementing the mili­tary dimension, a rereading of the classic works of arms control theory from the early 1960s might be useful.1 This article is inspired by the current war, but its conclu­sions apply to any conventional inter-state war. It deals with the more classic conventional armaments; cyber war­fare is only touched upon marginally and lethal autono­mous weapons systems and space weapons not at all. Nu­clear issues are dealt with as far as dual-use issues, as well as the impact of conventional weapons on the nuclear weapons infrastructure are concerned. What follows may appear modest in substance compared with the compre­hensive conventional arms control regime of the coopera­tive security period. However, the proposals made here pro­vide a relevant contribution to managing crises and wars and to mitigating their impact on the civilian population, the environment and third parties. 1 The political framing of arms control The post-Cold War system of European arms control(CFE Treaty, Vienna Document/VD, Open Skies Treaty/OST) was based on the concept of cooperative security. In the wor­ding of the OSCE 2010Astana Commemorative Declarati ­on, the concept ofcomprehensive, co-operative, equal and indivisible security[...] relates the maintenance of peace to 1 The three most important writings in this context are: Hedley Bull, The Control of the Arms Race. Disarmament and Arms Control in the Missile Age(London, 1961); Thomas C. Schelling/Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control(New York, 1961); and Donald G. Brennan, Arms Control, Disarmament, and National Security(New York, 1961). Conventional arms control during wartime, in ceasefire and post-conflict situations 1