PERSPECTIVE Democratic Expeditions After Victory: Self-Restraint in Democratic Restoration Zoltan Miklosi The Problem: The Victors’ Dilemma Democratic challengers in electoral authoritarian re­gimes often find themselves in a moral-political bind if they win a national election. They are surrounded by au­tocratic structures that undermine their ability to govern, let alone fully restore democracy. Loyalists of the auto­cratic regime are installed in supposedly independent in­stitutions, set to sabotage the new government and any attempts at genuine regime change. Lifetime appoint­ments and supermajority rules stand in the way of remo­ving these obstacles to democratic restoration within the bounds of formal legality. The case of Poland is a paradigmatic example of this si­tuation. After a coalition of pro-democracy parties de­feated the PiS-led autocratising government, the new government finds its efforts to fully restore the rule of law undermined by President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, and the Constitutional Tribunal, which, according to plausible criticism, was established illegally under the PiS government. Successful democratic challengers face a dilemma that is both strategic and moral. On the one hand, if they choose to adhere to formal legality, they risk being sabotaged, proving weak, and helping the defeated autocrat return to power in short order, with the chance of democratic rest­oration slipping away. On the other hand, if they choose to disregard formal legality and engage in procedural trans­gressions, they risk instability, institutional uncertainty in the face of likely resistance from autocratic loyalists, and, in the worst case, political violence. Assessing Risks and Opportunities A full assessment of the risks and possible upsides of the two horns of the dilemma would take into account the ap­proximate probabilities of the different scenarios, which in turn are highly sensitive to particular facts on the ground. But some general observations are warranted: → Most of the“benefits” of playing by the rules(Column 2 in the table above) are highly speculative and elusive. For instance, it is unclear whether maintaining the norm of legality has much promise against opponents who have already demonstrated a willingness to dismantle After Victory: Self-Restraint in Democratic Restoration 1