Central Greece has lost much of its livestock, devastating flooding and disease killing over half of the region‘s sheep, cattle, and goats. (Alexandra Howland) Peter Schwartzstein and Sabrina Kaschowitz A Distant Problem No Longer How climate change is fuelling crime and fraying trust across Europe The more the world warms, the more unstable many re­gions are becoming. Large parts of the planet are already suffering the consequences. But while there has been some focus on the effects on the poorest and most ecologically exposed, the vulnerabilities of Europe and other richer re­gions have been largely overlooked. As climate stresses and their fallout intensify»at home«, it’s high time to shine the spotlight inwards on a set of challenges that may ulti­mately affect most of the global»wealthy«, too. This is a distant problem no longer. In some ways, Europe might seem an unlikely candidate for climate-related instability. It does not have exclusionary political systems, and nor is a large part of its population engaged in agriculture, to mention two of the features scholars have identified as most likely to fuel such conflict globally. Nor, for all its shortcomings, does the continent exhibit the particularly poor governance that is principally responsible for causing climate shocks to manifest in vio­lence elsewhere. Indeed, none of the troubles described in this report are wholly or even mainly due to climate change. They are all messy mixtures of climate and»clas­sic« destabilisers, such as inequality. But the closer one looks, the less surprising a backdrop Eu­rope becomes for this kind of insecurity. It is densely popu­lated, which means more competition for less predictably available resources. It has more nation states clustered in a small area than anywhere else on Earth, which means that problems regularly require consultation across a uniquely high number of jurisdictions. After millennia of intensive settlement, much of Europe’s natural landscape has been so manipulated that it’s poorly placed to cope with»new« conditions. Urban areas, built for more reliably hospitable climes, lack the amenities needed to shield residents effec­tively from fiercer heat. Europe is also in trouble from a purely climate perspective. At an average of 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, it has warmed more than any other continent. Europeans from the Atlantic to the Aegean must now contend with a menacing array of climate shocks and stresses that include – but are not limited to – droughts, floods, wildfires and heatwaves. To add to the sense of sheer bewilderment that many citizens are feeling, conditions frequently yoyo from one extreme to the other, imposing unseasonal weather on people and places long used to a degree of predictability. The financial toll is also increasing in line with the chal­lenges. In 2025 alone, extreme weather events cost an esti ­mated€43 billion across the EU. Then there’s the politics. Much of Europe is struggling with formidable urban–rural divides, as climate stresses accen­tuate the gulf between the»haves« and the»have nots«. A Distant Problem No Longer 1