POLICY BRIEF Time to reset! can we revitalise European democracies? Brussels Democracy Paper 5/25 The vicious cycle of far-right success in Europe Tarik Abou-Chadi Across Europe, far-right parties have achieved remarkable and sustained electoral success in recent years. This trend has sparked extensive debate among scholars and policymakers about its causes and consequences. Many explanations focus on demand-side factors, such as public discontent with immigration, social status anxiety and perceptions of cultural threat. While these explanations offer valuable insights, they do not fully capture the speed and nature of far-right gains across different contexts. Far-right success has been rapid in many countries. In Germany and Portugal, for example, the far right only needed a few elections to gain more than 20 per cent of the vote. If we want to understand these dynamics, we need to look beyond public opinion and demand-side factors. Here, I outline one crucial factor on the supply side, namely the response of established parties to the rise of the far right. This brief outlines a vicious cycle that helps to explain the rapid advance of the radical right in many West European countries. The cycle unfolds in four stages: 1. mainstream parties react to the success of radical right parties by shifting rightward on immigration; 2. these strategic shifts fail to win back voters effectively; 3. these shifts in turn influence public opinion and normalise far-right parties; 4. observing this shift in public opinion, parties move even further to the right and thus perpetuate the cycle. Reactions to the initial success of radical right parties The first step in this cycle occurs when radical right parties achieve significant electoral breakthroughs, especially gaining seats in parliament. Their success makes established parties reconsider their strategies. Our research shows that when radical right parties receive more votes,
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