FES-Analyse Syria Riad al Khouri September 2001 ♦ The first year or so of the new president’s rule has been ambiguous: on the surface there is little tan­gible achievement, though in fact the groundwork has been laid for important change. The old regime dominated by the military and security apparatus survives, as witnessed by the arrest of some opposi­tion figures in the summer of 2001. ♦ The country’s socialist legislation has begun to be modified, though practical implementation of the needed economic reform remains hesitant due to the need to take account of internal opposition. This has come in particular from elements of the ruling Baath Party, many of who are entrenched in the state’s bureaucracy. ♦ For the first time in decades, a role for the opposition in calling for change is beginning to emerge in a new political landscape characterized by a greater number of participants, especially from the private sector. Political culture in its widest sense is evolving to become more open and inclusive of previously marginal groups, but the manner of the decision-making processes remains the same, with the old re­gime’s dominant elite still in control. ♦ The Syrian economy in the year 2000 improved somewhat over 1999, with growth at around 1.5%, having contracted at the same rate in the previous year. However, economic growth was half the rate of rise in population, and GDP per capita fell to about US-$1,000. Merchandise exports rose to US­$4.7 billion(from US-$3.8 billion in 1999) but this was mainly due to higher oil prices, while imports rose very slightly to US-$3.6 billion. The ratio of investment to GDP fell in 2000 to 17.6%, continuing the negative trend that has prevailed since the mid-1990s. ♦ In light of these and other negative indicators, the need has been recognized for a sustainable process of national development to replace the country’s untenable current economic model. Yet, for the time being, basic state and administrative practice shaping conditions for the economy remain unchanged. However, the medium-term prospects for change and growth may be brighter. Herausgeber und Redaktion: Albrecht Koschützke, Stabsabteilung der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung 53170 Bonn, Tel.: 0228-883376, Fax: 883432, eMail: Albrecht.Koschuetzke@fes.de