FES-Analyse The Arab World in 2002 Riad al Khouri, BLitt(Oxon) January 2002 n The most important new event with a major impact on the Arab World in 2001 was the attack on the United States on 11 September. With the exception of Afghanistan and the US, the impact of the con­sequences of the 11 September attack was and remains greater on the Arab World than on any other part of the globe. n The main short term influence on the Arab World in 2001 continued to be the Aqsa Intifada, which began in September 2000, and the consequent implications of the conflict with Israel; this was espe­cially the case in the Fertile Crescent, and to some extent in the Nile Valley and the Arabian Peninsula, but less so in the Maghreb and the Indian Ocean States. n Major medium-term trends with an impact on the Arab World as a whole that continued in 2001 in­cluded the relatively firm price of oil and the relative weakness of the EU vis-à-vis the US, both of which factors had become more important since March 1999. n Longer term trends that continued to have an impact on the Arab World in 2001 included globaliza­tion, in its economic and social aspects, and its antitheses, including fundamentalism(and to a lesser extent autarky) both of which have become increasingly important since the early to mid-1990s. n The interaction of all of the above has resulted in a situation that may quickly lead to greater change in the region as a whole than at any other time since 1991 in the aftermath of the second Gulf war. However, outward change in 2001 has not been great or dramatic, whether before or after 11 Sep­tember, and the general situation throughout the region apparently resembles what it was before that date. Herausgeber und Redaktion: Albrecht Koschützke, Stabsabteilung der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung 53170 Bonn, Tel.: 0228-883376, Fax: 883432, eMail: Albrecht.Koschuetzke@fes.de