Internationale Politikanalyse Frieden und Sicherheit, September 2004 Ashok K. Mehta A Window of Opportunity for Kashmir – The Changing Security Situation in South Asia from an Indian Perspective 1. Introduction After fighting three wars and several border skir­mishes, in January 2004 India and Pakistan started a dialogue covering all disputed issues between the two countries, including Jammu and Kashmir, commonly referred to in the West simply as“Kashmir.” In the past, periodic tensions between the two countries pro­duced crises, sometimes with the potential for a nu­clear exchange. At present, a formal ceasefire along the border is accompanied by an unprecedented yearning for peace among the peoples of India, Paki­stan, and divided Kashmir. These new ground condi­tions and a changed security environment have created an ambience for reconciliation and a window of op­portunity for settling the Kashmir conflict. This paper examines the prospects of peace and conflict resolu­tion in Kashmir against the backdrop of recent changes in the security environment of the South Asian region and following reconfiguration of the strategies of the main parties involved in the conflict. 2. Background 2.1 Brief History of the Kashmir Conflict The territory of Jammu and Kashmir has been hotly contested since India and Pakistan won their inde­pendence in 1947. With the end of British colonial rule the Indian subcontinent was partitioned along religious lines, leading to the formation of Muslim Pakistan and Hindu-predominant but secular India. The new Paki­stan was, however, a geographical incongruity. Its two wings, West and East Pakistan – the latter becoming independent Bangladesh in 1971 – were separated by 1,000 miles of Indian territory. Kashmir was one of the 565 princely states of Brit­ish India, with a Muslim majority but a Hindu ruler. According to the India Independence Act of 1947, the rulers of princely states were given the option to join either India or Pakistan. The Kashmir ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, at first wanted to remain independent. However, following an invasion by Muslim tribesmen from Pakistan the Maharaja decided to accede to India. Pakistan immediately contested the accession, claiming that because of the Muslim majority Kashmir should have joined Pakistan. The dispute erupted in the first Indian–Pakistani war over Kashmir, lasting from 1947 to 1948. Although convinced that Britain had played a crucial role in creating the Kashmir dispute and that Britain wanted Pakistan to keep Kashmir, where it had strate­1 gic interests, India followed British advice and took the dispute to the United Nations in 1948. The UN brokered a ceasefire that ended the first Indian– Pakistani war on January 1, 1949, leaving two thirds of Kashmir with India and the remaining one third with Pakistan. The UN Security Council Resolution of August 1948 further stated that the future of Kashmir was to be decided by a plebiscite. The resolution stipulated three preconditions which had to be realized before a referendum was held: a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Pakistani troops, and the removal of the bulk of the Indian military presence in Kashmir. These precondi­tions were never met. On a visit to India in mid-2002, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan admitted that the UN Resolution on Kashmir was no longer implement­able. In the following decades India and Pakistan fought two more wars, in 1965 and in 1971. In 1999 India launched air strikes against Pakistani-backed forces that had infiltrate d Indian-administered Kashmir, north of Kargil. Pakistan responded by putting its troops on high alert as the fighting built up towards a direct war between the two states. Further escalation of the con­flict was not stopped until the United States intervened and pressured Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to call upon the infiltrating forces to withdraw. Since the 1960s the wars and armed conflicts be­tween India and Pakistan have not changed any basic 1 Major General Kuldip Singh Bajwa(Retd), Jammu and Kash­mir War(1947–48): Political and Military Perspectives (New Delhi: Har-Anand Publications, 2003), p. 13. There are many books which allege Britain’s complicity in the partition of India and Kashmir.