December 2005 Nepal: Changing Strategies of the“People’s War” Dev Raj Dahal, FES Kathmandu • The Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist(CPN-Maoist) has been changing its ideology and strate­gies with the changing dimension of national and international politics. Initiated as a class war to establish a People’s Republic in Nepal, now it has reached an understanding with the agitating seven-party alliance for the election of a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution and has expressed its commitment to join competitive democratic politics in the short run. • After the Royal takeover, Nepalese politics witnessed a rapid polarization of forces. On the one hand there is the state versus the agitating seven-party alliance including the Maoist rebels. On the other hand, donors appear to be polarizing themselves. India, the UK and the EU are sup­porting the seven-party alliance, while China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and Pakistan are sup­porting the King’s efforts to hold elections and restore stability in the country. • The Maoist announcement of a unilateral ceasefire, and its extension, received mixed reactions. The Western donors, the United Nations, India and Nepalese political parties have welcomed it. The government has not reciprocated and has called for the surrender of arms by the rebels and announced an amnesty if they renounce violence. • India is consulting the USA and the UK in trying to mediate between the political parties and the Maoists in the framework of a constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy. Background The CPN(Maoist) leaders- Puspa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) and Dr. Baburam Bhattarai- for­mally started their People’s War in Nepal on February 13, 1996 with the aim of establish­ing a“new people’s democracy.” Based on the ideological teachings of Marx, Engels, Lenin and Mao, it draws inspiration from the Revolutionary Internationalist Movement and Peru's left wing guerilla movement, the Sendero Luminoso(Shining Path). For them, the‘People's War’ constitutes a"historical revolt against feudalism, imperialism and re­formists." The immediate reason given for declaring the People's War was the failure of the Nepalese government to respond to their 40-point memorandum presented on Febru­ary 4, 1996 pertaining to nationalism, democ­racy, livelihood and abrogation of unequal treaties with foreign countries. When the People’s War started in Rukum and Rolpa, a small group of people led by CPN (Maoist) fought with locally available weapons - knives, sticks, sickles, homemade explosives and old-fashioned guns. After six months, it formed its first squad of fighters and began on their path of guerrilla warfare. The initial raids were carried out against local feudals, police, rival political workers, government spies, moneylenders, rapists, wife-beaters, smugglers and corrupt officials. Chronic gov­ernmental instability and failure of the politi­cal class to understand the structural causes of the insurgency made the conflict manage­ment strategies of various governments inef­fective. The subsequent shoddy police opera­tions swelled the number of victims and they began to join the ranks of the CPN(Maoist). It helped to transform the localized, low­intensity conflict into a high-intensity one with geopolitical consequences.