Conflict Analysis Afghanistan Update May 2005 Muhammad Suleman, Kanishka Nawabi, NGO CPAU(Cooperation for Peace and Unity) Partner of FES-Kabul 1. The current situation The situation in Afghanistan is still character­ized by substantial violent conflicts, insurgen­cies and challenges regarding political and social as well as security matters, and cannot really be described as"post-conflict". It is therefore necessary to consider the aid and other interventions based on these develop­ments taking place in the country. 1.1 The political level The central government Progress was made in stabilizing Afghani­stan's government structure and systems. Af­ghans began exercising their right to partici­pate in the political process by approving a new constitution in January 2004, and elected Hamid Karzai to a five-year term as president in a generally peaceful election in October 2004- the country's first universal suffrage, direct vote for the presidency. Af­ghans, including notable numbers of women, participated widely in both processes, but the legitimacy of both processes suffered due to inadequate election assistance from the in­ternational community and insufficient secu­rity and monitoring. There are similar con­cerns about the upcoming Parliamentary Elec­tions, scheduled for 18 th September, 2005. Karzai has managed to strengthen his power base over the last years and significantly re­duced the power of the Northern Alliance faction. The complication though exists in the inconsistency of policies not only in his gov­ernment but also international forces and supporters. For example while DDR has re­sulted in a significant disarmament process, coalition forces and Afghan commanders re­arm groups so they support the coalition and pro Afghan forces that fight against Al Qaeda and Taliban. Beneath the surface there are still ethnic ten­sions and conflict over power, among differ­ent ethnic groups being in a dominant posi­tion in their provincial strongholds. Unfortu­nately, the elite in most of the ethnic groups are to blame for intensifying conflict, because of the power struggle, while different local communities in many cities are living quite peacefully with each other. On the other hand, there are some positive developments in regards to alienating the powerful warlords such as Dostum and Ismael Khan from their power bases in Mazar and Herat respectively. This is partly due to the central government pushing them to take up positions in Kabul as well as due to the ex­pansion of international forces to various provinces. These policies probably based on international community’s interest to support the creation of a powerful central govern­ment in Kabul. By the end of March a group of political par­ties formed a coalition called the National Understanding Front. The leader of the coali­tion is Yunos Qanuni, a powerful Northern Alliance commander and political leader, with his deputies Haji Mohammad Mohaqeq, be­longing to once notorious Hizbe Wahdat, and Ahmad Shah Ahmadzai, famous for his illegal businesses and properties around the capital Kabul and other parts of the country. The 1