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Iranian attitudes to the nuclear question : impressions and assessments following discussions in Teheran
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Focus on Germany London Office The Chandlery Office 609 50 Westminster Bridge Road GB London SE1 7QY Tel 00 44 20 77 21 87 45 Fax 00 44 20 77 21 87 46 feslondon@dial.pipex.com www.fes.de/london June 2006 Iranian Attitudes to the Nuclear Question Impressions and Assessments following Discussions in Teheran Volker Perthes The following evaluation of the development of Iranian policy in the nuclear question is based on discussions held in Teheran and Isfahan in the first half of May. It included conversations with two deputy foreign ministers, a former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Coun­cil(SNSC), a current deputy secretary of the SNSC as well as professors, staff of the IPIS and CSR research institutes, journalists, clerics and other observers. In general terms, the impression is con­firmed that there is by no means a uniform­ity of opinion among the Iranian political elite, not even when it comes to the issue of the country's nuclear programme. This elite is on the whole visibly concerned about American regime-change rhetoric, even when this is concealed beneath a "you-can't-touch-us" attitude. The great majority of the leadership is still very inter­ested in doing business with Europe and not least with Germany(whose role in the EU-3 and the 3+3 is most often misinter­preted). That said, there is absolutely no doubt that co-operation with the EU would have to include acceptance of the"right of Dr. Volker Perthes is director of the German Institute for International and Security Af­fairs( Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik ­SWP) that advises the Bundestag and the federal government on foreign and security policy issues. He is one of Germanys lead­ing experts on the Middle East. Iran to uranium enrichment within the framework of the NPT" although there is some evidence of room for negotiation on this point within this elite consensus. Three opinions on Nuclear Research In somewhat simplified terms, there are three trends or groups emerging within the Iranian political elite with regard to the nu­clear debate; the margins of these are somewhat fluid and in some cases they cut across political parties and alliances: 1.) Quite a large group, which could be called the Globalisers: their prime aim is commercial and technological progress. Nuclear energy is seen as key to this pro­gress. Prestige is another factor involved for this group; they point to the country's size, impor-tance and level of development in order to demonstrate why Iran simply cannot do without this technology and how it would gain in status if it had the technol-