Crossroads After Gaza By Yonatan Touval* Executive Summary With the smoother than expected implementation of Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank, the political scene in Israel faces a new crossroads. The perceived success of the disengagement, and the feelings of national self-confidence that this perception has aroused, may not necessarily lead Israel back to the negotiating table. For one thing, with elections scheduled for November 2006, little if any policy initiatives are expected during the next fourteen months. Although Sharon’s coalition remains fragile, Netanyahu’s failure to oust Sharon, coupled with Labor’s declared intention of prolonging the life of Sharon’s government, on the other hand, seem to have given Sharon’s government a new lease of political life. Such a prolonged election period, however, is dangerous, since any void in the political process opens the door to extremists on both sides who are well adept at exploiting frustration. The second obstacle to Israel’s return to the negotiating table lies in the emerging popularity of the political doctrine of unilateralism, which means that when a new government does eventually form, it may well prefer another unilateral action over a negotiated agreement. For the Israeli political left, therefore, the challenge ahead is two-fold: first, to bring about early elections in order to shorten as much as possible the period of deadlock and inaction; and second, to convince the Israeli public that unilateral actions are no substitute for a negotiated resolution to the conflict. * Yonatan Touval is a member of the policy planning staff at the Economic Cooperation Foundation(ECF), a think tank based in Tel Aviv, and is a policy adviser to Yossi Beilin.