March 15, 2007 THE COMPLEX PUZZLE OF ISRAELI ARAB PEACE MAKING ­AN ISRAELI VIEW The breakdown of Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations in the spring of 2000; Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon in the summer of 2000, followed in the summer of 2000 by the breakdown of Israeli-Palestinian Peace negotiations and the outbreak of the Intifada Al-Aqsa in the autumn of 2000, have all created a new reality in the Israeli­Palestinian and the wider Israeli-Arab relationship. The US invasion of Iraq in March 2003 and the related rising regional power of Iran and a growing Shia-Sunni rift, are all contributing factors to the emergence of a new and complex reality in the Middle East. Any professional policy planning attempt aimed at pursuing a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian and the wider Israeli-Arab conflict has to be based on an in-depth understanding of the new reality and should not rely on old concepts and approaches, which have turned out to be ineffective tools for successful conflict resolution. Looking at regional developments from an Israeli point of view, I shall analyze the new reality in Israel, the Palestinian Authority, in the region and new realities on the wider international level. The aim of this approach is to identify opportunities for a comprehensive conflict resolution approach, and at the same time warn about prevailing threats and policies that might lead to renewed despair. *************************** A. The New Political Reality in Israel 1. Old Aims and New Realities The raison d'etre of the State of Israel, and of political Zionism, is to first permit the Jewish people to take control of its own fate, in its homeland, the land of Israel. This goal is combined with the search for security and acceptance among the other nations of the Middle East. These three goals are a constant of Israeli politics and the entire internal discourse about what strategy to adopt, relates to the question of which approach serves these aims best. During the 1990s, the Israeli left, led by Yitzchak Rabin, and later by Ehud Barak, hoped to achieve all three aims, by intending to negotiate a Permanent Status Agreement with the Palestinian leadership. It was hoped that a two-state solution, leading to an'end of occupation' and the establishment of a Palestinian state aside Israel, would guarantee a Jewish majority in Israel for a long time to come, and thus would permit the Jewish people to maintain its collective identity in its homeland. Furthermore, a peace agreement with Palestine, containing a clause, committing both sides to an"end of conflict", promised, at least conceptually, to provide Israel with both security, and regional acceptance. The failure of Israeli-Palestinian Permanent Status negotiations and the outbreak of the second Intifada shattered this approach, and destroyed Israel's left as a leading political force within the Israeli body politic. Instead, a right-wing government, led by Ariel Sharon, was voted into power in 2001. 1