Division for International Dialogue 10 Theses on Energy Security A reliable and sustainable energy supply is a fundamental condi­tion of economic development and growth. In recent years, how­ever, there have been two new developments that have called a secure energy supply into question. First, global climate change has already begun and catastrophic consequences are looming, in particular for the poor in the Third World. The predominant cause of this is the still growing utilisation of fossil fuels. Second, the profound transformation of the energy market – the conse­quence of the dramatic growth in demand(in particular on the part of the fast-developing nations in Asia), the state-monopo­listic approach of the raw materials countries, the shareholder­value oriented strategies of private energy companies, as well as the looming exhaustion of oil reserves – has given rise to a situ­ation in which the satisfaction of demand is a matter of constant anxiety. Furthermore, the remaining oil and gas reserves are increasingly concentrated in politically unstable regions. The market will continue to develop into a power instrument of the producer countries, the consumer countries will be drawn into a situation of asymmetric dependency and market forces alone are unlikely to be able to overcome current distortions or reduce tensions. In its recent work, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s Division for International Dialogue has focused on the prospects of European Economic and Social Policy, European Foreign and Security Policy, European Neighbourhood Policy and International Security Policy. These theses are a contribution to the political positioning within the above-mentioned fields. They also seek to outline future challenges and topics. Climate change and the transformation of the energy market demand nothing less than the profound reorganisation of the basis of industrial society as regards energy. This reorganisation cannot be managed by individual nation-states. Only close regional coordination between the countries most directly affected – primarily the energy consumer states – will work. Such reorganisation is a ›short-term long-term task‹; it must begin now, but must be maintained with sufficient intensity to avoid the dangers that in the coming decades could develop into a catastrophe. Its aim is the reduction of global demand for fossil fuels, their more efficient use and their substitution with carbon­free or at least reduced carbon modes of production. 1. One condition of the energy reorganisation of industrial society is that decisions are taken on general principles or ori­entation, and are implemented both regionally and internation­ally. Their main purpose is to anticipate negative consequences; what is needed therefore is the establishment of a global risk management that must be established by means of diverse negotiation agendas. The transition process that must be set in motion requires organisation and control. As a matter of priority transition formulae should be developed that ensure a single­minded convergence towards climate and resource policy targets with simultaneous maintenance and further development of the industrial system. Democratic parliaments, governments and or­ganised civil society should, jointly with the energy industry and energy R&D, participate in this organisational task in the form of political dialogue. AUGUST 2008