FOKUS SÜDKAUKASUS 1/08 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ FOKUS SÜDKAUKASUS BÜRO SÜDKAUKASUS Matthias Jobelius Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung App. 7, 1st Lane off 4 I. Chavchavadze Ave. 0179 Tbilisi, Georgia phone:(+995 32) 250728 Fax:(+995 32) 22 67 27 e-mail:stiftung@fesgeo.org.ge 1/08 Presidential Elections and the Democratization Process in Azerbaijan 1 by Shahin Abbasov 2 Summary As was largely expected, incumbent Ilham Aliyev has overwhelmingly won the presidential elections of October 15, 2008 in Azerbaijan in the first round of voting and thereby secured office for a second five-year term. According to official results, Aliyev received almost 89% of the votes while his six challengers did not receive more than 2% of the votes each. This election campaign has been the least competitive in Azerbaijan since 1993. The government effectively limited the visibility of the election campaigns by reducing the volume of accessible campaign materials on TV and on the streets. Voters were unable to witness any real debates between the candidates nor listen to important campaign issues. Despite the relative stability over recent years, the already limited powers of political institutions such as parliament, the judiciary, and political parties have been increasingly eroded, while President Aliyev has focused on strengthening the presidency. The potential to undermine Azerbaijan’s political stability derives from five key sources: i) the growing tensions between official Baku and the West on democracy and human rights issues; ii) high inflation; iii) the developments over the nuclear programme of neighbouring Iran; iv) rivalry among the ruling elite; and v) growing tension in Russia’s competition with the West over the South Caucasus after the recent conflict in Georgia. These threats exist in and of themselves as destabilizing factors as well as on the backdrop of a potentially renewed war over Nagorno-Karabakh. 1 The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily represent the views of FES 2 Shahin Abbasov is a journalist and the Azerbaijan correspondent of the New York based on-line resource“Eurasianet”. He is based in Baku, Azerbaijan.