Dezember 2008 The tropics in distress – Southeast Asia marked by climate change Axel Schmidt and Beatrice Bieger, FES Singapore • Despite an ever-increasing number of natural disasters, Southeast Asian nations have so far failed to discuss at length – at either national or regional level – climate change and the nec­essary reduction of CO 2 emissions. • Southeast Asian governments reject mandatory targets for emission reduction due to their growth and development goals, insufficient financial, institutional and technological capaci­ties, and because in their eyes the historical responsibility for today’s climate issues lies with others. • Based on the principle that the polluter should pay, Southeast Asian politicians expect the advanced industrialized nations to continue to make the largest contributions towards re­ducing CO 2 emissions. But in doing so they overlook the fact that the Southeast Asian coun­try of Indonesia is the world’s third largest CO 2 emitter, and that the success of any future climate agreement will depend to a great extent on Indonesia’s willingness to make conces­sions. After the sea level had risen by one meter in the year 2050 due to climate change, the coastal metropolises of Bangkok, Jakarta and Manila, and their 70 million inhabitants, drowned in mud. Before the Mekong was reduced to a mere runlet, due to greater than normal snowmelt in the Himalayas it swelled each year to an uncontrollable torrent, which washed millions of tons of fertile cropland into the sea. Cyclones, increasing in intensity from year to year, ravaged the landscapes of Southeast Asia, and the resulting aridity gave rise to forest fires, which destroyed the last remaining tropical rainforests in Malaysia and Indonesia. Singapore, which up to then had managed to hold out against the rising sea level owing to its efforts to embank the is­land, was flooded by countless malnourished people weakened by pandemics, in search of a new home. This is one possible climate scenario currently being discussed by experts in Singapore be­hind closed doors. That their concern is in­deed warranted was substantiated at a hear­ing of the US House of Representatives on June 25, 2008, in which the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, Dr. Thomas Fingar, predicted a bleak future for Southeast Asia as a result of climate change. It is therefore all the more surprising that these developments are still being largely ignored in Southeast Asia. While according to polls 75% of Japanese and South Koreans view global warming as a very serious prob­lem, only 42% of Malaysians and Indonesians share this opinion. The lack of public debate is consistent with the political silence in Southeast Asia on this issue. There are several reasons for this: De­spite decades-long efforts to achieve a re­gional identity, ASEAN members continue to think in terms of national structures. So far, the region comprising 570 million inhabitants has not succeeded in drawing up a climate agreement that goes beyond a mere declara­tion of intent. Instead, ASEAN members hide behind the excuse that they are too small and