August 2009 The Winding Road to Copenhagen ELENA KUCH Introduction Scientific knowledge shows that the effects of climate change can only be mitigated if Greenhouse Gas(GHG) emissions are drastically reduced until 2020. This insight as well as the fact that the Kyoto Protocol on the reduction of Greenhouse Gases(GHG) expires in 2012 requires immediate action by the International Community. The upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, December 7 th to 18 th 2009, provides an opportunity for the world’s governments to act on reducing emissions. This Fact Sheet summarizes the most necessary steps that UN member states will have to agree on and presents the various challenges to a comprehensive agreement. Background The latest report of the Nobel Peace Prize winning UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) predicts the upmost limit of global temperature increase to be 2° C, if dangerous consequences for the planet want to be prevented. The cause for global warming are GHG emissions, which are to a large extend anthropogenic, meaning they are owed to the action of humans and the development of the industrialized world. If states do not change their pattern of energy consumption, there is a high risk that global warming exceeds the acceptable limit. GHG emission continue to increase: Scientists expect a rise by at least 25% until 2030 1 if nothing is done to reduce the emission output. Reasons are polluting fossil fuels and a too lavish use of energy by industrialized countries. Further, developing countries, which are significantly growing in population and also in production capacities will naturally demand energy intensive goods and will therefore be responsible for a high increase in GHG emissions. 2 Predictable effects of climate change are more flooding and drought, less ice and snow, which results in a higher sea level, and more extreme weather incidents: heat waves, heavy rains and storms threatening the existence of a large part of the world’s civilization. Extreme weather particularly affects the agricultural sector, 1 See: http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_climate_change_e.pdf 2 See: Ibid. especially in developing countries, increasing the likelihood of widespread hunger in already problematic regions. Scarceness of essential resources such as water has the potential to cause conflicts and unstable situations with consequences for peace and security. There is a glimmer of hope, however: climate scientists are optimistic that there is a variety of solutions and technology to combat the growing climate challenges. Increased investments into renewable energy systems, such as wind, solar, water and geothermal power provide options to back away from polluting fossil fuels. Other opportunities, even though some may see them as problematic and risky, are nuclear energy as well as “green coal”, which does not emit but captures and stores GHG. Energy consumption can be reduced by more responsible use and improved energy efficiency, especially when it comes to public and residential buildings. Better insulation and energy and resource efficient appliances can cut energy consumption significantly and the use of“smart” grids 3 could even advance this further. Infrastructure and transportation system improvements with a broader public transport system, a responsible use of renewable fuels and electric motor driven vehicles provide a chance to reduce GHG emissions. In general, it will be the mix of different energy solutions, which can make its consumption more environmental friendly. 4 Experts also put much hope into global emissions trading functioning as a cap-and-trade system, where emission rights can be auctioned. Companies are given emission permits up to a certain cap. If polluting companies emit more, they can buy emission permits from greener companies. If the carbon price is high, it will be most cost-effective for companies to reduce their emissions and allow them to use investment capital for a reorientation towards more environmental friendly technology. 5 3 Smart grids advance the 20th century grid by the use of digital technology to monitor and save energy efficiently. It is a decentralized network, where energy is routed from different, mostly renewable, power plants to a high number of consumers. 4 See: http://www.unep.org/pdf/A_Global_Green_New_Deal_Policy_Brief.pdf 5 See: Baerwaldt, Konstantin et al.(2009): Global Emissions Trading. A Solution to the Climate Challenge?