INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Politics in a fragmented society The 2010 elections in the Netherlands FRANS BECKER/RENÉ CUPERUS Wiardi Beckman Stichting Den Haag, the Netherlands JULY 2010 ࡯ In this paper Frans Becker and René Cuperus from the Wiardi Beckman Stichting have a closer look at the electoral campaign, the election results and the options for coalition building after the Dutch election in June 2010. ࡯ Behind the high volatility of the electorate a number of structural trends ca be dis­cerned: One is the decline of the two main»Volksparteien«, the Christian Democrats ( Christen-Democratische Partij CDA) and the Social Democrats( Partij van de Arbeid PvDA); another is the loss of dominance of the Social Democrats on the left. ࡯ Geert Wilders’ Partij voor de Vrijheid(PVV) was the big winner in the election. Right­wing populism in the Netherlands is characterised by a post-modern mix of conserva­tive values, disgust with the left, xenophobia and liberal values, such as the protection of gay marriage, a strong emphasis on freedom of speech and women’s rights. ࡯ Today, the traditional working class voter is leaving social democracy, not only be­cause f the cultural cleavage, but also for materialistic reasons: too soft on immi­grants, too much tax. There is also an anti-establishment aspect to this. Many working class and lower middle class voters perceive the social democratic PvdA as an establishment party. ࡯ At no time since the introduction of universal suffrage in the Netherlands has the country’s biggest political party been as small as the right-wing liberal Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie(VVD) is now. This illustrates the political fragmentation that is the main result of the election. As a consequence, forming a cabinet that can count on majority support in parliament will become exceedingly complicated. Put simply, the problem is: will a left party join the right block, or will a right party join the left block?