INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Sudan and Somalia – Linchpins on the Horn of Africa ANNETTE WEBER| ANJA DARGATZ September 2010 n Decisive in the referendum on the independence of Southern Sudan will be the will of the political leadership, not the will of the people. n In spite of the considerable potential for violence, complementary interests of both governments offer latitude in negotiations. n The fundamental problems faced by the Sudan will not be solved by the referendum and will con-tinue to shape the development of the Sudan after the referendum. n There is a risk that the international community of states will concentrate even more on the South and neglect North Sudan. n A military stalemate between the armed jihadist groups of the al-Shabaab militia and the Somali transitional government with the support of the AU mission is leading to additional destruction which is spilling over into the entire region. n The military war on terror alone cannot bring about stability. Work with local autho­rities which are interested in a sustainable peace is more effective. n The country is divided: Somaliland functions as a democratic state, while the state in the South has failed. Development cooperation and political support is warranted to help avoid a destabilisation of Somaliland. n To effectively combat piracy, the structures of a state governed by rule of law must be supported in pirate territory and economic alternatives created for the population of Somalia.