INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS The Medvedev Factor Russia’s Desire to Modernise REINHARD KRUMM November 2010 ࡯ Dmitrii Medvedev’s presidency is closely connected with the modernisation of Russia. For Medvedev modernisation entails not just technical and economic innovation but also urgently needed reforms of the political system. This is what we mean when we speak of a Medvedev factor. Yet so far Medvedev has not succeeded in winning over opponents within the state for his project. ࡯ Russia’s government once again faces the key question of how to reform the country’s political system without tipping the country off balance and risking the kind of des­tabilisation experienced by the Soviet Union. Will Medvedev succeed in winning sup­port for the project he has initiated from broad sectors of the elite and society? The current motivation to transform Russia into an active state at peace with itself rather than one constantly trying to catch up with the West stems from the consequences of the economic crisis. ࡯ Russian society expects the state to create a framework based on the rule of law that would ensure citizens a secure existence. Yet despite publicly espousing this idea the government is not interested in engaging in a public discussion on the country’s political future. Therefore the Duma, Russia’s parliament, has so far avoided holding a debate on what a modernisation programme should consist of. ࡯ The Medvedev factor has already had an impact on foreign policy. Relations with both the United States and the new EU member-states in Eastern Europe have im­proved considerably. Russia has signed a new START disarmament treaty with the United States, and a modernisation partnership with the EU is a high priority for foreign policy. Medvedev’s Russia clearly emphasises a western orientation.