INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS The Finland We Have Lost Country Analysis in the Run-Up to the National Elections ARJA ALHO April 2011 On April 17, Finland elects a new parliament. But the run-up to the national elections has been overshadowed by political scandals. This may lead to half of Finland’s MPs being re­placed by new candidates. Finns have had enough. The True Finns, a populist party, has emerged as a symbol of change. The Left, including the Social Democrats, has lost touch with the people. Recent polls show that more people are likely to vote this time. This is a positive sign, as electoral turnout in Finland has traditionally been weaker than in other Nordic countries. But it may also signal the determination of the supporters of the True Finns to get their party elected and to translate promising opinion polls into real political power. The cam­paigning in the upcoming weeks may ultimately not make much difference, but the catas­trophe in Japan is affecting the agenda, moving nuclear power and the associated risks to a prominent place. If the trends indicated become reality, Finland will experience a fun­damental change. However, it is obvious that the final election results will usher in a period of difficult nego­tiations. The Finnish tradition of surprising political coalitions may continue, for the Finnish political field is fragmented. The Finns strongly support the values of the welfare state, but they may unintentionally end up voting for a government that will continue to intro­duce private elements to public services simply because all the parties are open to coop­eration. For the Social Democrats the upcoming elections are crucial if they are to stem the downward trend in electoral support.